Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down. The domestic social inventory is stable, but the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased and returned to the previous operating range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,753 dollars/ton, up 39.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,239 lots, up 410 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,304 lots, up 4,592 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,599 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons, up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 113,425 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 22,520 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.04 dollars/ton, down 3.29 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile output is 2.642 million vehicles, an increase of 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.34%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.27%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.05% [3] Industry News - In June, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000. The service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association shows that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report notes that domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices are running weakly, and consumption is gradually weakening. With enterprises having made more low - price purchases earlier, inventory shipment speed has slowed, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventories are stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and inventories continue to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are back in the previous operating range. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The report suggests temporarily observing the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 27.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 263,829 lots, down 4,934 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 13,712 lots, down 2,430 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt is 6,624 tons, down 200 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons (weekly), up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 114,900 tons (daily), down 2,575 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 18.75 dollars/ton, down 8.52 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,160 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons (monthly), up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 23,1836,100 square meters, up 5,347,770 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 18,3851,400 square meters, up 2,737,290 square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 15.54% (daily), down 0.57%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 15.53% (daily), down 0.57% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 7.38% (daily), down 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 16.78% (daily), down 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that if not for tariffs, a rate cut would have occurred, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for raw material payment prices showed signs of slightly accelerating inflation. Import and export indicators were still in contraction, but the decline rate slowed. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year [3]. - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June [3]. - Facing the July 9 deadline for tariff restart, the Trump administration adjusted its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Report's Core View - Zinc alloy开工率下滑，隐性库存负反馈可能发生，锌锭社会库存小幅增长；TC整体稳定，海外锌矿发运量提升，供给压力不改；消费边际下滑，现货升水大幅回落，锌价上涨缺乏基本面驱动力，社会库存持续增加将形成较大向下压力 [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - As of June 20, 2025, the LME zinc price increased by 0.57% to $2,625 per ton compared to last week, and the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 21,845 yuan per ton. The LME zinc spot premium (0 - 3) changed from -$22.95 per ton last week to -$24.65 per ton [1] - As of the week ending June 20, the weekly processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates by SMM remained stable at 3,600 yuan per metal ton compared to last week, and the weekly processing fee index for imported zinc concentrates increased by $2 per ton to $55 per ton. Recent zinc ore tender results in North China were 5,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton compared to the previous period, and the New century zinc ore tender result was $40 per dry ton. The zinc ore import window remained closed, but overseas zinc ore departure data increased [1] - Specifically, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises decreased by 1.46% to 58.6% compared to last week, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased by 4.72% to 55.12%, and the operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises increased by 0.08% to 59% [1] - According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven major areas monitored by SMM was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to the same period last week; the warrant inventory decreased by 229 tons to 8,743 tons compared to the same period last week; the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 tons to 126,225 tons compared to last week [1] Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the production profit of smelting enterprises in the industry (excluding by - product income) was -500 yuan per ton, and the profit was about 1,000 yuan per ton after adding by - product income [2] Market Analysis - The operating rate of zinc alloy decreased significantly last week, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur, with a slight increase in the social inventory of zinc ingots. The TC remained stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume continued to increase. Although the room for further increase was limited, the strong trend remained unchanged. There was still smelting profit at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm was high, so the supply pressure remained. The overall consumption showed a marginal downward trend, the spot premium dropped significantly, and there was a lack of fundamental driving force for the zinc price to rise. If the social inventory continued to increase, it would exert significant downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Oscillating weakly. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the zinc concentrate mining sector has largely materialized, with the treatment charge (TC) continuing to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue [3][50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge [3]. - The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term. In the short run, low inventory provides some support, but weak demand restricts upward movement. In the long run, with increased supply and limited demand growth, the zinc price may face pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In March 2025, the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 23,700 tons. The first three months of 2025 saw a global supply surplus of 143,000 tons, slightly lower than the 148,000 tons surplus in the same period last year [12]. - In Q1 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 2.9021 million tons, a 9.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.99% increase year - on - year. Global refined zinc production was 3.278 million tons, a 2.32% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.55% decrease year - on - year [12]. 3.2 Glencore - Glencore's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93 - 990,000 tons, consistent with the initial expectation. Q1 production was 213,600 tons, a 18.29% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.89% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Antamina and the Australian region [19]. 3.3 Teck - Teck's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 525,000 - 575,000 tons. Q1 production was 177,300 tons, a 6.19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14.08% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the Red Dog mine [22]. 3.4 Boliden - In Q1 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate production was 57,900 tons, a 38.95% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 45.78% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from the复产 of the Tara mine [24]. 3.5 Vedanta - In Q1 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate production was 264,000 tons, a 5.60% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 4.35% increase year - on - year. Increases mainly came from Gamsberg, partially offset by the reduction at Black Mountain Mine [27]. 3.6 Nexa - Nexa's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 311,000 - 351,000 tons. Q1 production was 67,300 tons, an 8.44% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 22.82% decrease year - on - year. Except for Cerro Lindo, zinc production at other mines declined [31]. 3.7 MMG - MMG's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 215,000 - 240,000 tons. Q1 production was 51,800 tons, a 19.02% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 12.65% decrease year - on - year [37]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - Newmont's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 236,000 tons. Q1 production was 59,000 tons, a 23.38% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 2.42% increase year - on - year [38]. 3.9 BHP - BHP's fiscal 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 90,000 - 110,000 tons. Q1 production was 26,000 tons, a 14.19% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 41.38% increase year - on - year [40]. 3.10 Lundin Mining - In Q1 2025, Lundin Mining's zinc concentrate production was 48,900 tons, a 5.77% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 7.14% increase year - on - year [41]. 3.11 South32 - In Q1 2025, South32's zinc concentrate production was 11,000 tons, a 1.85% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 23.08% decrease year - on - year. The production guidance for the Cannington mine in fiscal 2025 was lowered to 45,000 tons [43]. 3.12 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In Q1 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production was 39,400 tons, an 8.75% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 49.40% increase year - on - year. The full - load operation of the Buenavista zinc concentrator contributed to the increase [44]. 3.13 Industrials Pelones - In Q1 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate production was 57,700 tons, a 5.65% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 13.86% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from the closure of the Tizapa mine and the depletion of the San Julian mine [45]. 3.14 Fresnillo plc - Fresnillo plc's 2025 zinc concentrate production guidance is 93,000 - 103,000 tons. Q1 production was 25,200 tons, a 12.79% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.47% decrease year - on - year. Reductions mainly came from lower ore grades at Fresnillo and Cienega and the shutdown of the San Julian mine [47]. 3.15 Kaz Mineral - In Q1 2025, Kaz Mineral's zinc concentrate production was 9,300 tons, a 19.13% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 11.43% decrease year - on - year, despite the highest quarterly throughput of ore [50]. 3.16 Market Outlook - The anticipation of a looser supply situation in the mining sector has materialized, and the TC continues to rise. The annual production guidance for major overseas zinc concentrate producers remains mostly unchanged, and the upward trend in annual zinc concentrate production is expected to continue. The TC for domestic and imported zinc concentrates has increased [50]. - Given the strong expectation of refinery复产 and the off - peak demand season, an inflection point in zinc ingot inventory may emerge. The zinc price is expected to be strong in the short - term and weak in the long - term [3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates zinc prices to fluctuate within a range. It suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 2.18 - 2.25. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are rising, processing fees are increasing, and sulfuric acid prices are up, which restores smelter profits. However, there are supply disruptions due to a smelter's extended maintenance. The import window is closed, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it's the end of the peak season, with lower processing enterprise开工率 and potential export demand shrinkage. But lower zinc prices lead to more bargain - hunting and a decline in domestic social inventories, while overseas de - stocking continues. Technically, there are differences between long and short positions in open interest increment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,340 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts is 160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,704 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 240,856 lots, an increase of 2,590 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,173 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots. - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 2,004 tons, an increase of 628 tons; the SHFE inventory is 42,310 tons, a decrease of 1,763 tons; the LME inventory is 136,275 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,800 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.28 dollars/ton, down 4.09 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 56,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2,320,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2,340,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing start area is 178,358,400 square meters, an increase of 48,393,800 square meters; the housing completion area is 156,478,500 square meters, an increase of 25,875,800 square meters. - The automobile production is 2,604,000 vehicles, a decrease of 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19,678,800 units, an increase of 3,476,400 units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.78%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates, and the US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in US economic activity, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressure. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The estimated cumulative wholesale from January to May was 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market has been experiencing low-level fluctuations for nearly two months, with a focus on whether the supply from mines can meet demand in the future [2][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since early April, zinc has faced widespread selling due to escalating international trade tensions, remaining below 22,500 points [2]. - Recent maintenance at zinc smelting plants has been higher than usual, despite stable processing fees for zinc ore [3][4]. - A significant zinc smelting plant in southern China extended its maintenance period, impacting production by an estimated 20,000 to 40,000 tons, which led to a price increase [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The decline in social zinc inventory continues, although the demand from downstream sectors remains resilient [5]. - The real estate sector's weakness has slowed the destocking of galvanized inventory, with new construction area starting in the first four months of 2025 down 23.8% year-on-year [5]. - Domestic zinc imports have reached historical highs, contributing to a stable supply environment for smelting plants [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The mid-term outlook suggests increasing pressure on zinc supply due to the resumption of production at smelting plants and the seasonal slowdown in demand [7]. - Analysts predict that the zinc market may experience a shift towards a bearish trend as supply begins to outpace demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation starting in mid-June [7][8]. - The processing fees for zinc ore are expected to remain strong in the third quarter due to high demand, despite an anticipated oversupply of zinc ingots [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US economy is expected to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and there may be a rate cut in 2025, with growth projected between 0.5% and 1%. In China, since April, multiple sectors like consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown positive trends under the coordinated action of macro - policies. [3] - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly. Refineries' profits have further recovered, production enthusiasm has increased, and overall production will continue to grow. Although the import window is currently closed, previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. [3] - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. However, the recent rise in zinc prices has weakened downstream bargain - hunting purchases, leading to a decline in spot premiums. Domestic social inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories continue to decline. The real estate sector at the end - user level has marginally improved but still drags down demand. [3] - Technically, the position has decreased. The price of zinc is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,455 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 210 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,691.5 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 222,642 lots, up 22 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 5,863 lots, down 3,884 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 1,701 tons, down 474 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,351 tons (weekly), down 751 tons; the LME inventory is 164,200 tons, down 975 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,410 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME zinc forward premium (0 - 3) is - 20.95 dollars/ton, up 1.43 dollars. - The factory - delivered price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,680 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 67,700 tons (weekly), up 700 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons (monthly), down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters (monthly), up 63.8246 million square meters; the housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters (monthly), up 42.9606 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles (monthly), down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units (monthly), up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.86% (daily), down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.75% (daily), down 0.02%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.24% month - on - month. The "trade - in" policy drove the continuous improvement of products such as automobiles and home appliances. The retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment of units above the designated size increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively. The national online retail sales increased by 7.7% compared with the previous year. - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 8.0%. Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he expects the US economy to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and reiterated that there may be a rate cut in 2025. He said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The overall zinc production will continue to increase due to rising zinc ore imports, rising zinc ore processing fees, a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, improved smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance and shutdown capacities [3]. - The subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the import loss is expanding [3]. - The demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. The recent decline in zinc prices has improved the downstream's bargain - hunting purchasing atmosphere, with high spot premiums and a significant decline in domestic inventories, entering the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - The terminal real estate market has marginally improved but still drags down demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions, attention should be paid to the MA10 support, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,765 dollars/ton, up 60 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 222,896 hands, down 3,156 hands [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 2,784 hands, down 736 hands; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,571 tons, up 971 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons (weekly), down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,050 tons (daily), down 900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 310 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.27 dollars/ton, up 5.07 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons (weekly), up 800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 17.13% (daily), up 0.01%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 17.14% (daily), up 0.02% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.75% (daily), up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.86% (daily), down 0.22% [3]. Industry News - At the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The stock of social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. In the first four months, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 339.7 billion yuan year - on - year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that trade between China and the United States will increase significantly in the next 90 days. Enterprises will compete to increase inventory reserves, especially US importers may launch a new wave of buying, and China's exports will boom [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The overall zinc production will increase due to factors such as rising imports, processing fees, and sulfuric acid prices, as well as the resumption of some capacities [3]. - The refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the loss is expanding [3]. - The downstream demand is warming up, with improved purchasing and falling inventories, but the real estate market still drags down demand [3]. - Technically, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: May 7, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - After the May Day holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 closed at 22,355 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan or 0.67%, with shrinking volume and increasing positions. The zinc concentrate TC continued to rise in May, and the high price of by - product sulfuric acid improved the refinery's comprehensive profit. However, after the holiday, acid plants faced inventory accumulation, and the by - product price might weaken at high levels. Some refinery overhauls were postponed to May, but considering new production from Henan refineries and continuous supply from imports, zinc ingot supply was relatively abundant. On the demand side, the effect of export rush converged, and terminal enterprises were worried about overseas export orders, leading to inventory accumulation of raw materials and costs. In the future, post - holiday restocking and low social inventory levels will support zinc prices, but the medium - term supply - demand surplus will increase the expectation of inventory accumulation, and the upside space for SHFE zinc is limited, with a rebound on the short side [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: - For SHFE zinc 2505, the opening price was 22,600 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,765 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,810 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,600 yuan/ton, the change was +5 yuan, the change rate was 0.02%, the open interest was 11,055, and the change in open interest was - 1,267. - For SHFE zinc 2506, the opening price was 22,390 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,355 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,580 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,300 yuan/ton, the change was - 150 yuan, the change rate was - 0.67%, the open interest was 111,715, and the change in open interest was +5,719. - For SHFE zinc 2507, the opening price was 22,150 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,075 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,045 yuan/ton, the change was - 195 yuan, the change rate was - 0.88%, the open interest was 64,671, and the change in open interest was +5,515 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls data led to a rebound in base metals. LME zinc first declined and then rose during the May Day holiday. After the holiday, SHFE zinc opened higher and then fluctuated weakly. The zinc concentrate TC continued to rise in May, with the domestic monthly TC rising by 50 to 3,500 yuan/metal ton and the imported monthly TC rising by 5 to 45 US dollars/dry ton. The upward repair speed of TC in the second quarter slowed down. The high price of by - product sulfuric acid improved the refinery's comprehensive profit, but after the holiday, acid plants faced inventory accumulation, and the by - product price might weaken at high levels. Some refinery overhauls were postponed to May, and if the overhauls were implemented, there would be concerns about supply reduction. However, considering new production from Henan refineries and continuous supply from imports, zinc ingot supply was relatively abundant. On the demand side, the effect of export rush converged, and terminal enterprises were worried about overseas export orders, leading to inventory accumulation of raw materials and costs [7]. 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On May 6, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,780 - 22,975 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,960 - 23,135 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,710 - 22,905 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the average price, and there were few quotes to the market. In the second trading session, the common domestic brands quoted a premium of 210 - 220 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 220 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 600 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 330 - 380 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract, and Hazinc quoted a premium of 100 - 130 yuan/ton to the 2505 contract [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brands of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market were traded at around 22,835 - 23,030 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo switched to quoting a premium of 460 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, with a flat price to the Shanghai spot. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 450 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, Qilin quoted a premium of 450 - 470 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and Huize quoted a premium of 500 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract [8]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 22,935 - 23,065 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 500 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract and a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong widened. Although there was a small amount of arrival in Guangdong during the holiday, the overall inventory was still at a low level, and the quoted spot premiums were relatively high [8][9]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 22,850 - 23,160 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 22,900 - 23,180 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,230 - 22,470 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 26,220 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc quoted a premium of 500 - 580 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 550 - 600 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a premium of about 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides figures such as the price trends of zinc in the two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [10][12]