Group 1 - The article discusses the costs associated with doing business and investing, emphasizing that every transaction has an acceptable maximum loss rather than just the principal investment [1] - The central bank conducted a 645 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with a total net withdrawal of 2,191 billion yuan due to maturing reverse repos and MLF [1][2] - The interbank funding rates remained stable, with DR001 around 1.41% and DR007 around 1.52% throughout the day [1] Group 2 - The overnight risk assets saw a slight increase, while the bond market remained stable with the 10-year government bond yield hovering around 1.67% [3] - The central bank has been net withdrawing funds for three consecutive days, and the recent reserve requirement ratio cut has led to a weak performance in the stock market [3] - The article notes that the recent performance of the 2-year treasury futures has been weak, attributed to market uncertainty regarding the sustainability of monetary easing [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial market conditions, highlighting the stability of the LPR and its implications for the stock and bond markets, as well as the overall liquidity situation in the banking sector [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The April LPR quotation remains unchanged, aligning with market expectations, which has led to a strong performance in the stock market [2][3]. - The bond market shows a noticeable upward trend in long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.663% [3][4]. - The central bank conducted a net injection of 233 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a tightening liquidity environment as tax payments are processed [1][2]. Group 2: Market Data and Trends - The weighted average rate for R001 increased by 65 basis points to 1.74%, while R007 remained stable at 1.73% [2]. - The total transaction volume in the repo market reached approximately 62.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 2.08 billion yuan compared to the previous period [2]. - The stock market is experiencing a "see-saw" effect with the bond market, as the liquidity tightening is impacting bond yields while supporting stock prices [3][4].

无论内心的感觉也好，还是分析体系给你的支撑也好，亦或是受外界情绪的影响也罢，人总是先入为主地有一定的预判，这就让人们总爱做左侧。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250305— 政策要 能早则早、宁早勿晚（+政府工作报告未超预期+资金面均衡宽松-股市小幅上涨=微下)】 资金面均衡宽松，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行公开市场开展3532亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有5487亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1955亿元。 资金面均衡宽松，资金价格较昨日变化不大，DR007在1.77%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 03.05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成义重 (17. | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.76 | | | 2. 53 | -8 | 48364. 26 | 271. 32 | 8 ...

我们总是对盈利零容忍，而对亏损却很放纵。一小赚就跑，一亏就死扛，总是在"入场亏损 - 持有死扛 - 解套就跑"的小赚大亏中循环着，能扛到解套还算幸运，很多人都是在扛不住大亏时，悔恨离场，似乎 天生是来给市场送钱的，而不是来赚钱的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250205— DeepSeek版：TL赠与我的（+关税担忧+PMI数据低于预期+午后资金面转松+股市下 跌=中下)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展6970亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有14135亿元逆回购到期。净回笼7165亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，午后转松，资金价格偏贵。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1. ...

入场时，是以资金面转松为依据，来下单做多的；但入场后被套了，是因为资金面没有转松，反而更紧；此时，我们不能因为被套，就开始变换入场逻 辑，拿宏观数据走弱，来为自己找理由，进而不去止损。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250121— 当代励志大片：川普归来（+股市在特朗普关税表态扰动下冲高回落+资金面继续缓和=中下)】 资金面均衡，长债收益率明显下行。 央行公开市场开展2560亿元14天期逆回购操作，今日有550亿元逆回购到期。净投放2010亿元。 上午资金面均衡略偏紧，尾盘转松，资金利率小幅下行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 01. 21 ) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 2.06 | 21 | | 6.00 | 200 | 49713. ...

我们也不要自认为聪明，凭着感觉想做个先卖后买的波段交易。想法是好的，但是如果你真这样做了，先卖出做空，欲等待调整后再上车，但是，你卖出 后的心态是会改变的，尤其是逆大势大概率踏空之后，就会在懊悔中难以再上车，于是踏空后面更大的行情。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241217— 中美关系或是2025最大预期差（+股市弱势-资金面偏紧转松=微上)】 资金面偏紧转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行今日公开市场开展3554亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1416亿元逆回购到期。净投放2138亿元。 上午资金面偏紧张，午后逐渐转松，资金利率仍偏贵。 俄罗斯国家杜马表示：支持在俄全国推广食品券制度。哎，这战打的，把"粮票"都打出来了，这是要和朝鲜并轨的节奏的啊。 今天看到特朗普表示"美中联手可以解决世界上所有问题"，新华社对此都做了报道。考虑到老特的思维更偏商人而非政客，意识形态的东西也不多，2025 年基本面的预期差没准儿真能来自于中美关系，等到明年这个时候再一看，"大力提振"的足球、消费、投资继续拉胯，而"无人看好"的出口再超预期，大 家纷纷感叹"一致预期都是错的"，这剧本如何？ 真心希望地球的各位大佬 ...

是恐惧，让你"煎熬后赶紧解脱"；是贪婪，让你"看对后还不上车"。要想战胜恐惧和贪婪，唯有严格执 行投资体系。 ——笔记哥《应对》 这两天美国国务卿再度访华，传说是来给我们施压不要支持北极熊的。的确，按照历史经验来说，近墨 者黑。但啥事都讲究个交换，你们也得拿出啥点诚意啊！是能停止贸易战呢？还是能停止科技战？似乎 都很难，所以最后能谈成啥也不清楚，估计还是个刚。不过，老百姓还是不希望神仙打架，否则人间就 该苦难深重了。退一步海阔天空，让三分心平气和。 -------------------------- 【今日盘面】 【笔记20240425— 神仙们别打了，退一步海阔天空（-资金面盘中略收紧=微下)】 资金面盘中略收紧，长债收益率微幅下行。 央行：今日进行20亿元7天期逆回购操作，中标利率为1.80%，与此前持平。因今日有20亿元7天期逆回 购到期，当日实现零投放零回笼。 早盘资金面平稳，午后稍有收紧，3点之后恢复宽松。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2024. 4. 25) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...