Group 1: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude oil futures opened over 6% higher but later retreated to $74.55 per barrel, reflecting a 2.15% increase from the previous close of $72.98 [1][2] - Historical context shows that geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, previously led to oil prices soaring to $130 per barrel, indicating potential for similar price movements due to current tensions [14] - Analysts suggest that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the impact on oil prices could be significant, potentially comparable to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with increased market panic and supply chain disruptions [14][15] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, with Israel conducting airstrikes on Iranian missile bases and Iran retaliating with missile attacks on Israeli cities [7][8] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated that Israel would cease operations if Iran agrees to abandon its nuclear program, highlighting the urgency of the situation [9][10] - The European Union is closely monitoring the situation, emphasizing the need for diplomatic efforts to resolve tensions and prevent further escalation [11][12] Group 3: Shipping and Freight Costs - The ongoing conflict is expected to increase risk premiums in oil and shipping rates, with historical precedents showing significant price hikes during periods of conflict [14][15] - Industry experts note that the geopolitical situation could lead to a temporary boost in shipping demand, particularly for oil tankers, while also raising concerns about the safety of shipping routes in the Middle East [15] - The potential for military actions targeting specific vessels in the region could further complicate shipping logistics and costs [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The US will impose tariffs on steel household appliances on the 23rd, and liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates, which is in line with the daily report's judgment. In the absence of more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended that risk - takers consider lightly shorting at high prices [2][3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period, and the NCFI for the US West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period [2] - On June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary value of the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [2] - The May Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The preliminary value of the US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [2] Market Situation and Strategies - The second Sino - US meeting did not make substantial progress. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price cut to test the market. Without more positive news, the market is likely to fall. It is necessary to pay attention to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final ruling result [2][3] - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on the positive spread structure [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Market News - On June 12, the main contract 2508 closed at 2001.5, down 2.10%, with a trading volume of 55,100 lots and an open interest of 44,600 lots, a decrease of 891 lots from the previous day [3] - The Middle East situation has escalated overnight, and there is no further information on Sino - US consultations. Some liner companies have slightly lowered the spot market freight rates at the end of June. The market is in a long - short game, and the main contract 2508 rose and then fell. The trading board shows a situation where the near - term is weaker than the long - term [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 26%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3] - Maersk Group announced the launch of the TP9 route from eastern China through the Northeast region to the US West Coast. The east - bound voyage from Xiamen is scheduled to start on June 24, and the west - bound voyage from Long Beach is expected to start on July 15 [4] - Israel has made a new response to the cease - fire and personnel exchange agreement draft in Gaza. While making some flexible adjustments, it still firmly refuses to agree to a permanent end to the military operation in Gaza and requires continued control over the distribution of humanitarian aid materials in the Gaza Strip [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is filled with a mix of long and short information, causing significant fluctuations in the market. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3] - It is necessary to focus on the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final result of the court ruling [3] Group 3: Summary of Specific Information Freight Index Information - On June 2, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1252.82 points, up 0.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1718.11 points, down 0.1% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1676.25 points, up 51.55% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.59 points, up 36.25% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 3585.23 points, up 89.23% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2072.71 points, up 486.59 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1587 USD/TEU, up 20.50% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US - West route was 3275 USD/FEU, up 57.92% from the previous period [2] - On May 30, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1117.61 points, up 0.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1375.62 points, down 1.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 944.06 points, up 4.0% from the previous period [2] Market and Policy Information - The US has restored Trump's tariff policy, indicating that tariffs could reach up to 15%, and then extended partial exemptions for China under Section 301 tariffs. Some shipping companies raised freight rates for mid - to late June [3] - The US court's ruling that the government overstepped its authority may boost macro - sentiment, but the spot market remains weak in price support. The easing of the China - US trade war may lead to a rush to ship within 90 days [2] Contract Information - On May 30, the main contract 2508 closed at 2075.3, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 102,700 lots and an open interest of 41,800 lots, a decrease of 4754 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Information - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where near - term freight rates are stronger than long - term ones. Pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on positive arbitrage structures [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The daily trading limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4]