总之，错综复杂的非农数据未能给市场一个明确的方向，反而加剧了多空分歧。短期来看，金价在历史 高位下方明显受阻，技术性回调压力正在累积。然而，美元趋势性走弱和市场对降息的坚定预期，共同 构筑了金价下行的坚实"缓冲垫"。因此，在周四美国CPI数据公布前，金价大概率将维持在4270-4350美 元的宽幅区间内进行高位震荡。 故日内操作上建议： 黄金：4326-4325一线做空，止损4336，目标看4270-4280一线。 12月17日，昨日现货黄金走出大区间震荡。亚盘小幅反弹后转弱，午盘跌破4300美元关口，最低触及 4271美元；欧盘止跌企稳并震荡回升，晚间最高上探至4334美元，随后再度回落，最终收于4302美元附 近，日线收出小阴十字星。 周三（12月17日）昨日的非农报告并未给出清晰的单边信号，而是呈现出一幅矛盾的经济图景，其复杂 程度远超市场预期，促发了市场的剧烈震荡。数据看似疲软（失业率升至4.6%，10月数据大幅下 修），实则暗含韧性（11月新增就业超预期，核心零售销售强劲）。这种矛盾令市场难以对美联储的政 策前景进行一致性定价。 尽管非农数据矛盾，但市场对2026年降息的预期已被加固。利率期货市场目 ...

北京时间周三(12月17日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.191附近，现货白银今日开盘于63.72美元/盎司， 目前交投于64.30美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于14953元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于14983元/千克附 近。今日基本面关注美联储理事沃勒将发表讲话。 周二(12月16日)美元指数下跌0.05%，收报98.225，现货白银收报63.74美元/盎司，下跌0.47%，由于非 农数据喜忧参半，现货黄金盘中一度重回4330美元上方，但未能站稳，现货白银价格在亚盘大跌后小幅 反弹：现货黄金下跌0.05%，报4302.28美元/盎司，现货铂金收涨3.54%，报1847.80美元/盎司；现货钯 金收涨2.13%，至1606.00元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 01:45加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆发表讲话 12月16日白银ETF持仓16018.29吨，较前一交易日减少42.31吨； 12月16日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)--空付多。 【要闻速递】 1.美国11月季调后非农就业人口新增6.4万人，高于预期。10月非农就业人数环比下降10.5万人，市场预 期为下降2.5万人。美国11月失业率录得4.6%，为四年 ...

具体走势上，金价自亚市微幅低开于4299.43美元/盎司，随即反弹走强，之后于亚盘尾及欧盘时段陷入 盘整，并录得日内高点4350.26美元，就此美盘开盘后，空头开始发力，连续回落走低，于次日0点时段 录得日内低点4285.51美元，最终有所止跌触底回升，收于4305.14美元，日振幅64.75美元，相对于上周 五收盘价4301.15美元，收涨3.99美元，涨幅0.093%。 12月16日：上交易日周一（12月15日）：国际黄金再度收取长上影线倒垂见顶看空形态，暗示短期走势 偏向震荡或回落走低调整的预期发展，但长线前景及方向仍看涨上行不变，要么等待调整回踩中轨等支 撑再度看涨攀升，要么突破新高持稳收线顺势跟进。 影响上，日内白盘因美元走弱及美债收益率下滑，黄金盘中一度触及4350美元上方，但仍未能站稳此 处，受到美国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基围绕结束战争的重要会谈取得的进展，显著降低了市场的避险 需求，再加上美联储主席候选人博弈加剧，哈塞特面临特朗普身边高层反对，减弱了未来更加宽松政策 的预期前景，使得投资者获利了结，打压金价回撤倒垂收线。 展望今日周二（12月16日）：国际黄金亚市早盘先行窄幅偏弱盘整，受到昨日 ...

月线（长线多） 支撑：3255 周线（中线多） 支撑：4065 日线（波段多） 支撑：4230 ② 15:00 英国11月失业率 ③ 15:00 英国11月失业金申请人数 黄金 四小时（短期） ④ 16:15 法国12月制造业PMI初值 ⑤ 16:30 德国12月制造业PMI初值 ⑥ 17:00 欧元区12月制造业PMI初值 ⑦ 17:30 英国12月制造业PMI初值 ⑧ 17:30 英国12月服务业PMI初值 ⑨ 18:00 德国12月ZEW经济景气指数 ⑩ 18:00 欧元区12月ZEW经济景气指数 ⑪ 18:00 欧元区10月季调后贸易帐 ⑫ 21:30 美国11月失业率 ⑬ 21:30 美国11月季调后非农就业人口 ⑭ 21:30 美国10月零售销售月率 ⑮ 21:30 美国11月平均每小时工资年率 ⑯ 21:30 美国11月平均每小时工资月率 ⑰ 22:45 美国12月标普全球制造业PMI初值 ⑱ 22:45 美国12月标普全球服务业PMI初值 ⑲ 23:00 美国9月商业库存月率 ⑳ 次日01:45 加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆发表讲话 注：以上仅为个人观点策略，仅供查阅交流，没有给予客户任何投资建议， ...

北京时间12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布年内第三次降息25个基点，然而此次决议罕见地出现了三张反对票，揭示了内部对政策路 径的严重分歧。在此之前，11月美国就业市场已显现出明显的降温迹象，市场对即将公布的11月非农数据既充满期待又充满疑 虑，其结果将直接左右美联储后续的政策选择。 从企业个体动态到宏观经济数据，11月美国就业市场的疲软态势已多方显现。11月14日，美国最大电信运营商威瑞森确认计划 裁员约1.5万人，占员工总数的15%，旨在削减成本以应对市场竞争。宏观数据方面，12月3日发布的11月ADP私营部门就业报告 传来重磅利空消息，当月私营部门就业岗位意外减少3.2万个，不仅远低于市场普遍预期的"新增2万个"，更创下2023年3月以来 的最大单月降幅。这一数据与初请失业金人数上升趋势相呼应，打破了此前就业市场韧性十足的惯性认知。 本期嘉宾 资深分析师 辰宇 麦东 主播 一菲 直播时间 12月16日 21:00 – 22:00 温馨提示：正常情况下，非农数据公布的时间为每月第一周的星期五20:30，《决战非农》播出时间为 20:00至21:40，请密切关 注智昇直播动态。如有任何疑问，请联系客服查询。 就业市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and the delay in the release of November non-farm payroll data have significantly narrowed market expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to a substantial pullback in U.S. stocks. Concerns over the AI bubble and other factors have also contributed to this decline. However, the weak non-farm data from September and the tightening of financial conditions due to the stock market adjustment have rekindled expectations for a rate cut. Looking ahead, in the absence of important data, the company leans towards the Fed pausing rate cuts in December, but this pause is more of a "skip" rather than a cancellation, with a high probability of a rate cut in January next year if the December pause occurs [1]. Major Assets - The combination of the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals, concerns over the AI bubble, and weak year-end buying has led to a significant drop in U.S. stocks, with global markets also retreating. The minutes from the Fed's October meeting indicated caution regarding a December rate cut, and the announcement from the BLS about the delay in the November non-farm data release until December 16 (after the December FOMC meeting) caused market expectations for a rate cut to plummet to as low as 25%. However, the release of better-than-expected September non-farm data later in the week, despite an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate, slightly increased rate cut expectations. Overall, during the week of November 17 to November 21, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively, while the MSCI global index dropped by 2.5% [2][3]. Overseas Economy - The September non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but the previous value was revised downwards, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, leading to a slight increase in December rate cut expectations. The BLS delayed the release of the September non-farm employment data. In total, the September non-farm payrolls added 119,000 jobs, significantly above the expected 51,000, while the August figure was revised down from 22,000 to -4,000. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The structural weakness in the non-farm data persists and has worsened, with the majority of new jobs in education and healthcare. Following the data release, the market's interpretation was weak, leading to renewed bets on a soft labor market and Fed rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut rising from a low of 25% to 40% [3][4]. Monetary Policy - The expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve have fluctuated, with the absence of economic data likely leading to a high probability of a "skip" rather than a cancellation of the rate cut. The combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BLS's announcement of delayed data, and the significant drop in the stock market has caused the federal funds futures market to experience volatility in December rate cut expectations, which fell to around 25% mid-week but later rose to 63% [4][5].

Employment Data - In September 2025, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 50,000 jobs and revising the previous value from 22,000 to -4,000 jobs[1][16] - The unemployment rate in September 2025 was 4.4%, slightly above the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%[15][35] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% and the previous value of 3.7%[15][39] Sector Performance - The service sector added 87,000 jobs in September, up from the previous value of 50,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector saw an increase of 10,000 jobs, recovering from a previous loss of 32,000 jobs[2][27] - Retail and leisure/hospitality sectors showed significant job recovery, with retail adding 14,000 jobs and leisure/hospitality adding 47,000 jobs in September, both higher than previous values[3][27] Federal Reserve Outlook - The strong non-farm data may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, with a 39.1% probability of a rate cut in December 2025 according to CME Fedwatch[5][23] - The delay in the release of employment data for October and November adds uncertainty, making a December rate cut less likely[5][23] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% in September, up from 62.3% in August, indicating a rise in employment willingness among younger demographics[4][33] - The number of unemployed individuals increased by 219,000 in September, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate[4][35] Wage Trends - The month-on-month increase in average hourly earnings was 0.2%, lower than the previous month's increase of 0.3%[39][40] - The year-on-year wage growth reflects ongoing inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rates[22][39]

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization before the government shutdown, with September non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000 [1] - The unemployment rate for September stands at 4.4%, higher than both expectations and the previous value of 4.3%, marking the highest level since October 2021 [1] - Average hourly wages in September increased by 3.8% year-over-year, surpassing the expected steady rate of 3.7%, but the month-over-month increase of 0.2% fell short of expectations and was lower than the previous month's 0.3% [1] Summary by Category Employment Data - September non-farm employment increased by 119,000, more than double the forecast of 51,000 [1] - August's job additions were revised down from an increase of 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000, with a total downward revision of 33,000 jobs for July and August combined [1] Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021, exceeding both prior values and market expectations [1] Wage Growth - Average hourly wages rose by 3.8% year-over-year in September, above the expected 3.7%, but the month-over-month growth of 0.2% was below expectations and a decrease from the previous month's 0.3% [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: For SHFE zinc contracts 2512, 2601, and 2602, the closing prices were 22,420 yuan/ton, 22,435 yuan/ton, and 22,455 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 70 yuan (0.31%), 65 yuan (0.29%), and 60 yuan (0.27%). The positions of the top 20 long and short seats both decreased, and the net long position decreased by 421 lots. LME zinc had an additional delivery of 1,550 tons to 45,075 tons, with a cumulative delivery of 9,700 lots since November. The Cash - 3M spread was 129.76B. [7] - Spot Market: The downstream maintained just - in - time procurement. The premium in Shanghai market for the December contract was 160 yuan/ton, Tianjin market was at a discount of 40 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai, and Guangdong market was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton for the January 26 contract. Some zinc ingot exports led to a significant decrease in inventory, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. [7] - Supply and Price Support: Due to the reduction of northern mines in China and the concentrated release of smelters' winter stockpiling demand, the supply of domestic zinc ore was tight, and the processing fee continued to decline. SMM estimated that the refined zinc output in November might decrease slightly month - on - month, and the tightening of the ore end supported the zinc price. [7] - Market Sentiment: According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 42.9%. The market sentiment turned cautious before the release of the September non - farm payroll data on Thursday evening. [7] Group 3: Industry News - Price Ranges on November 19, 2025: The mainstream transaction prices of 0 zinc were 22,495 - 22,600 yuan/ton, Shuangyan brand was 22,545 - 22,660 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was 22,425 - 22,530 yuan/ton. [8] - Regional Markets: In Ningbo, the mainstream 0 zinc price was 22,525 - 22,600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 yuan/ton for the 2512 contract and 120 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. In Tianjin, 0 zinc was 22,330 - 22,490 yuan/ton, and the premium for the 2512 contract was between a discount of 20 yuan/ton and a premium of 50 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, 0 zinc was 22,290 - 22,420 yuan/ton, with a discount of 55 - 25 yuan/ton for the 2601 contract and 60 yuan/ton for the Shanghai spot. [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory. [10][12] - Data Sources: The data sources are Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with current trading around $4088 per ounce after a brief surge to $4132.66 per ounce, followed by a decline due to a stronger US dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1][3] - The recent price movements suggest that the gold market is in a digestion phase following previous declines, with limited upward momentum, potentially leading to a continuation of the downtrend [3] - Market sentiment may shift as upcoming economic data is expected to impact gold prices, with the possibility of a deeper correction if the data is unfavorable for gold [3] Group 2 - The current trading range for gold is anticipated to be between $4100 and $4040, with key support levels identified at $4060-55 and $4030 [3] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could influence gold's price direction, with a potential for a preemptive breakdown due to market sentiment [3]