Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: May 19, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the holiday impact weakens, the overall production heat rebounds, with increased operating rates in the chemical, tire, and coke oven sectors. The asphalt operating rate reaches its highest level since December 2023, accelerating road construction. - The transaction of commercial housing stabilizes, while the land transaction area decreases. - Prices generally rebound, with rising prices of crude oil, non - ferrous metals, and rebar, and a decline in coking coal. Due to political unrest in Guinea affecting mineral supply and the easing of US tariff policies leading to demand recovery, the aluminum price may remain strong in the short term. - Short - term focus should be on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the trend of commodity prices [2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Production - Steel: The coke oven capacity utilization rate increases by 0.18 pct, the blast furnace operating rate decreases by 0.47 pct, and the rebar production increases by 3000 tons. The inventory of rebar decreases by 3280 tons [11] - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate significantly increases by 5.6 pct, reaching a new high since December 2023 [11] - Chemical Industry: The PX operating rate increases by 1.84 pct, and the PTA operating rate increases by 1.81 pct [11] - Automobile Tires: After the holiday, the operating rate seasonally rebounds significantly. The all - steel tire operating rate increases by 20.32 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increases by 19.98 pct [12] 2. Demand - Real Estate: The transaction area of commercial housing rebounds, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreases. The land transaction area decreases, and the premium rate of residential land transactions slightly increases [15] - Movie Box Office: It decreases by 40.9 million yuan compared with the previous week [15] - Automobile: The average daily retail sales of automobile manufacturers increase by 19000 vehicles, and the average daily wholesale sales increase by 14000 vehicles [17] - Shipping Index: The SCFI increases by 9.98%, the CCFI decreases by 0.14%, and the BDI increases by 6.85% [20] 3. Prices - Energy: The Brent crude oil price increases by 2.35% to $65.41 per barrel, and the coking coal futures price decreases by 2.21% to 864 yuan per ton [22] - Metals: The LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices change by +0.02%, +2.56%, and +1.43% respectively, and the domestic rebar futures price increases by 2.11% [23] - Agricultural Products: They continue the seasonal downward trend. The agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreases by 0.76%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits change by +1.55%, +0.63%, - 2.05%, and - 1.50% respectively compared with the previous week [25] 4. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai both increase. The seven - day moving average of Beijing's subway passenger volume increases by 869900 person - times, and that of Shanghai increases by 790000 person - times [28] - Flight Volume: Both domestic and international flight volumes decrease. The seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume decreases by 299.43 flights, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) decreases by 14.86 flights, and that of international flights decreases by 76.86 flights [30] - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first - tier cities rebounds. The seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities increases by 0.09 [30] 5. Summary - The production heat rebounds, and prices generally rise. Short - term focus should be on the implementation of a new round of growth - stabilizing stimulus policies, the recovery of the real estate market, and the trend of commodity prices [33]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-05-12 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《债市行情从短端开始——货币政策 点评 20250507》 - 2025.05.07 固收周报 生产延续回落，物价走势分化 ——高频数据跟踪 20250511 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，受假期影响，生产热度仍呈现下行 趋势，化工、轮胎开工率处于季节性低位，焦炉产能利用率下降，螺 纹钢产量降至去年同期水平之下，高炉、沥青开工率有所回升。第二， 商品房成交面积回落，土地成交面积持续回升，均与去年同期水平接 近。第三，物价走势分化，原油价格低位回升，焦煤、螺纹钢下降， 铜价相对稳定；农产品整体延续季节性下行趋势，水果涨幅较大。短 期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策落地、房地产市场恢复情况及大宗 商品价格走势。 生产：化工、轮胎开工率季节性下降，沥青、高炉回升 5 月 9 日当周，焦炉产能利用率下降 ...

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《信用拉久期的性价比如何？》 - 2025.04.16 固收周报 生产走势分化，大宗商品价格企稳回升 ——高频数据跟踪 20250419 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端行业走势分化，项目开工范 围扩大，钢铁需求增长，焦炉、高炉开工率持续升高，沥青开工率低 位上行；PX、PTA 受检修季影响开工率持续下降；轮胎开工率稳中有 降。第二，商品房成交、土地供应面积小幅下降，基本与上年同期持 平。第三，大宗商品价格企稳回升，原油、焦煤价格涨幅较大，铜价 微涨，整体仍未收复前期跌幅。短期重点关注新一轮稳增长刺激政策 落地、房地产市场恢复情况及大宗商品价格走势。 生产：焦炉、高炉、沥青开工率升高，化工、轮胎下降 4 月 18 日当周，焦炉产能利用率升高 0.42 pct，高炉开工率升 高 0.28 pct，螺纹钢产量减少 3.15 ...