德意志银行的那份清单，本来就是个双刃剑，既能给你撑伞也能让你被刀割，谁都爱听惊悚故事，但谁又真想当主角呢，这就是问题所在。 市场不怕平静，市场怕假平静，而那份"十大黑天鹅"像个老朋友，既熟悉又危险，它把可能性都摆出来，让人不得不看清——繁荣与崩塌，只差一步之遥。 先说上行的戏码，AI把美国经济从2.6%推回4%以上，不是天方夜谭，是资本支出和生产率一起唱主角的可能，英伟达们今天赚钱，明天砸钱，数据中心像 蘑菇一样冒出来，投资就像潮水，能把GDP往上抬，这是台面上的逻辑，也是很多人愿意相信的故事。 标普500冲到8000点，这话听着厚重，但别忘了历史会重复，90年代重复过，互联网泡沫时代也有过表演，关键问题是泡沫能撑多久，信心能撑多久，流动 性能撑多久，这是时间和耐心的较量，而不是唯一的命运。 再说美联储，降息会不会把经济软着陆安稳放下，这是个技术活，也是政治活——降息速度快，不等于安全着陆，市场喜欢故事，央行喜欢规则，两者又总 在互相试探，谁先露怯谁就可能被敲骨吸髓。 贸易方面的"休战"并非童话，关税豁免可能扩大，政治动机清楚得很——选举到来，谁不爱个好消息，但政策从口头到执行，中间有多少障碍，别把希望当 成 ...

（原标题：巴西黑天鹅事件！股市大跌 货币重挫约2.5%） 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 有分析师表示："市场原本希望整个右翼能在弗雷塔斯身后实现大团结。但现在右翼反而是分裂了。现 在只是把之前那股过度乐观情绪修正一下。离大选还有很久，各种新闻标题都会继续带来巨大的波 动。" 自上月末以来，谁来接班右翼的讨论愈发受到关注——当时博索纳罗因为策划政变、推翻其2022年大选 失利结果而开始服27年刑期。中间派盟友和投资者原本把这视为一个转折点，认为会迫使这位仍坚称自 己明年还会参选的前总统"交班"。很多人都把目光投向弗雷塔斯，视其为右翼击败卢拉的最佳希望。 虽然圣保罗州长弗雷塔斯在不同的投资者场合上讲话时，颇有"候选人"的味道，但他迄今仍坚持称自己 打算竞选连任州长。他在潜在总统参选问题上一直极为谨慎，并多次释放信号：只有在博索纳罗明确支 持的情况下，他才可能出马。 有分析师表示："市场之前预期弗雷塔斯会成为博索纳罗钦点的候选人，而市场的技术面仓位在一定程 度上也反映了这种乐观情绪。相比之下，弗拉维奥对阵卢拉的竞争力更弱，而且在经济政策预期方面也 更差，这对巴西资产都是负面因素。" ...

弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽 管左翼现任总统卢拉预计将竞选第四个任期，而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员越来越认为，如果弗雷 塔斯出马，将是右翼阵营击败现任总统的最佳机会。 【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件， 直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博 索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子，作为右翼阵营在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后，巴西前总统长子、参议员 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在X平台上确认了其父亲的背书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与 此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾50个基点，反映出投资者大举撤销 此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯参选"的押注。 弗拉维奥在X平台上写道："怀着极大的责任，我确认巴西最伟大的 ...

【导读】巴西的黑天鹅事件 大家周末好，简单关注一则巴西发生的黑天鹅事件，直接股汇双杀。 巴西股市周五大跌，股市创下自2021年以来最糟糕的一天，货币也重挫约 2.5%。原因是巴西前总统博索纳罗公开支持自己的一个儿子，作为右翼阵营 在明年10月总统选举中的候选人。 在当地媒体Metropoles披露这一消息后，巴西货币雷亚尔就开始走弱。随后，巴西前总统长子、参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在X平台上确认了其父亲的背 书，雷亚尔跌势加速。巴西Ibovespa股指收跌4.3%。与此同时，一些作为货币政策预期风向标的利率互换合约收益率狂飙逾50个基点，反映出投资者 大举撤销此前"博索纳罗会支持圣保罗州长塔尔西济奥·德·弗雷塔斯参选"的押注。 弗拉维奥在X平台上写道："怀着极大的责任，我确认巴西最伟大的政治与道德领袖雅伊尔·梅西亚斯·博索纳罗作出的决定——他将继续我们国家项目的 使命托付给我。" 弗拉维奥参议员办公室对外证实，他将作为自由党的候选人挑战现任总统卢拉。 此前，受新兴市场整体上涨行情以及市场对弗雷塔斯可能参选的期待支撑，巴西资产今年表现不错。尽管左翼现任总统卢拉预计将竞选第四个任期， 而且在早期民调中领先，但交易员 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 来源：燕园创投 塔勒布是一位数学家型的交易员，是纽约大学的研究员，是有独特的交易策略的投资人，也是一位哲学家，是人们口中的"黑天鹅"之父，也是战乱 中长大的思想家。 塔勒布的基金被称为尾部基金（Tail Fund），大家也称之为黑天鹅基金（Black Swan Fund），他的交易策略，简单理解，就是平时每天小亏，一 遇到黑天鹅事件就会大赚。 塔勒布相信世界是由"肥尾事件"主宰的，只是人们对其知之甚少。 "不确定性"在他的投资哲学里有重要地位。塔勒布认为，"注入一些混乱可以稳定系统"、脆弱的人渴望安宁，而反脆弱的人在无序中成长。 以下是塔勒布的新书《肥尾效应》的书摘以及其中关于运气、不确定性、人为错误以及相关风险与决策的金句，与诸君分享。 01 "肥尾效应"：一句顶一万句 一直以来，塔勒布的主要研究聚焦在"肥尾"的应用，即"极少数极端事件的影响超过绝大多数平常事件"，类似于"一句顶一万句"的效果，但这 些"极少数极端事件"往往也是最不可预测的。 塔勒布曾说人们生活中最大的错觉就是「随机性是一种风险，是一件坏事」，把观察不到的东西当成不存在，更是近年来开始流行的一种疾病。 塔勒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of political statements on the tourism industry in Japan, particularly focusing on the cancellation of bookings for winter accommodations in Hokkaido due to rising tensions related to Taiwan. This has led to substantial financial losses for local businesses that rely heavily on winter tourism revenue. Group 1: Impact of Political Statements - The cancellation wave was triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo's remarks linking Taiwan issues to Japan's national security, causing public unrest and protests against his leadership [7][8]. - The immediate effect was a sharp increase in booking cancellations, with one business reporting a loss of over 200,000 yuan due to a 50% cancellation rate across its properties [9][15]. Group 2: Business Operations and Financial Losses - The winter season is critical for the business, accounting for 90% of annual revenue, and the legal framework limits operations to 180 days a year [5][17]. - By November 18, the cancellation rate reached nearly 50%, with losses per property estimated between 50,000 to 80,000 yuan, totaling over 200,000 yuan across four properties [15][17]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - The article highlights the competitive landscape in the accommodation sector, particularly in Osaka, where the number of registered properties has surged, leading to price reductions and increased competition [26]. - Despite the current challenges, there is hope for recovery as the business prepares for potential stabilization in the market, aiming to attract both local and international tourists once the political situation improves [33][34].

JerryZang 笔者认为，美国经济的现状并非强劲，其中会引发重大经济问题爆发的痛点很多，同时来自内部和外部 的负面冲击也不少，如果再叠加可能出现的"黑天鹅事件"的负面影响，那么美国经济的前景并非光明一 片，而是堪忧。 据媒体报道，近日美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克宣布他将在2026年2月28日任期届满时退休。同时， 博斯蒂克表示，通胀仍然是美国经济面临的更大风险，他倾向于在12月维持利率不变。 在不久前召开的美联储10月议息会议上，有两张分别主张更大幅度降息和维持利率不变的反对票。这凸 显出美联储内部在货币政策走向方面的巨大分歧。一方面，特朗普总统正在不断向美联储施压，希望美 联储尽快降息；另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在不久前的讲话中再次强调了其在货币政策方面的谨慎态 度，并明确表示12月降息并非铁板钉钉。 虽然近期由于美国政府停摆而造成一些重要的经济数据缺失，但是种种迹象表明美国经济面临的下行压 力正在加大，消费者信心也在下降。在这样的背景下，美联储在货币政策问题上的犹豫不定会增加美国 经济面临的不确定性，甚至会错失及时支撑经济的良机。 免责声明：本文内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作， ...

Core Insights - The current AI development wave is exciting but poses potential black swan events, with companies investing billions and the stock market rising, while the Federal Reserve appears to be considering interest rate cuts and ending quantitative tightening [1][25]. Economic Context - The U.S. GDP is experiencing strong growth, and the impact of tariffs on inflation is lower than expected, with energy prices remaining relatively low [1]. - The shadow of economic recession seems distant, but analysts warn that AI could face unforeseen challenges [1][25]. Inflation Concerns - Historical parallels are drawn between current inflation trends and those of the 1970s and 1980s, suggesting a potential second wave of inflation [5][27]. - Four main reasons for the potential inflation spike include delayed effects of tariffs, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, and the significant energy consumption from AI infrastructure investments [6][25]. Energy Consumption and AI - AI's integration into daily life is leading to a surge in energy demand, reminiscent of the internet boom from 1990 to 2005 [7][8]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that data centers' electricity consumption will rise from 415 terawatt-hours (TWh) to 945 TWh by 2030, increasing their share of global electricity consumption from 1.5% to 3% [8][10]. Infrastructure Challenges - Existing energy infrastructure may not support the anticipated demand growth from AI, necessitating significant investments from utility companies, which may pass costs onto consumers [12][14]. - The capacity price in the PJM region has surged fivefold, indicating rising electricity costs due to infrastructure upgrades needed for data centers [17]. Oil Price Dynamics - The current low oil prices may not last in a high-demand energy environment, with historical trends showing significant oil price increases during periods of rising energy consumption [19][21]. - The market's current bearish sentiment towards oil is paradoxical given the high energy demand, yet hedge funds are increasing their long positions in oil [23]. Conclusion - The AI boom is driving stock market highs, but correlations between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields suggest potential economic challenges ahead, particularly if energy prices rise due to increased electricity demand from AI infrastructure [25][27].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with prices showing signs of potential decline despite not breaking the 5-week moving average support, indicating a possibility for further upward movement if certain resistance levels are breached [1][3]. Price Movements - Gold opened at $4249.96 per ounce, reached a historical high of $4381.24, then fell nearly $300 to a low of $4004.11 before closing at $4108.63, resulting in a weekly decline of $141.33 or 3.32% [1][3]. Market Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the failure of the Senate to pass funding bills have heightened economic uncertainty and increased safe-haven demand for gold [3][7]. - Investor expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also contributed to gold's price movements [3][6]. Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently facing upward trend line resistance, and a breakthrough is necessary to open up further bullish potential [1][11]. - The market is expected to maintain a weak adjustment phase until it surpasses key resistance levels, with potential support around $3950 and $3700 if it falls below [9][11]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to react to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the resolution of the government shutdown, which could provide opportunities for bullish positions [8][10]. - Long-term risks include the potential for a government shutdown resolution, which may not alter the overall trend but could present new buying opportunities [6][8].

Core Insights - The article discusses the tragic story of a successful businessman, Zhuang Hua, who suddenly passed away despite his immense wealth and recent business success, highlighting the balance between wealth and health [1][22][35] Group 1: Business Model and Philosophy - Zhuang Hua viewed the world as a vast balance sheet, focusing on optimizing assets and transforming everything into quantifiable investments [1][4] - He prioritized "human" capital, emphasizing strategic thinking over traditional qualifications, and only targeted high-performing professionals [4][6] - His business model was highly selective, treating talent acquisition like stock trading, aiming for the highest return on investment [4][6] Group 2: Personal Management and Health - Zhuang Hua maintained a rigorous fitness regimen, viewing his body as a tool for sustaining high work intensity, but neglected the inherent risks of health [10][14] - He underestimated the unpredictability of life, failing to account for potential health crises in his meticulously calculated life model [13][19] - His tragic demise serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of equating management with control, particularly regarding personal health [13][20] Group 3: Societal Reflection - The incident resonated with many, reflecting a broader societal trend of quantifying life through metrics like KPIs and fitness apps, mirroring Zhuang Hua's approach [24][26] - The story raises critical questions about the pursuit of precision in life versus the need for stability and the importance of unquantifiable aspects like rest and uncertainty [33][35] - It emphasizes the necessity of allocating sufficient value to health and relaxation in one's life balance sheet, suggesting that these may yield the highest returns [35]