Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following U.S. military actions against Iran, which have heightened investor concerns about inflation and energy prices [2][6]. - On June 23, gold prices opened near $3400, surged nearly $30 to $3398.02 per ounce, but later retreated to $3365.62, resulting in a modest gain of 0.2% [2]. - Technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for gold, with resistance levels identified at $3375 and $3385-$3395, indicating a strategy of selling on rallies [3][5]. Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is reacting to the same geopolitical tensions, with prices initially rising sharply before giving back some gains. The market is closely monitoring Iran's potential responses to U.S. actions [6]. - Brent crude oil is projected to enter a trading range above $90 per barrel, contingent on Iran's actions and OPEC+ responses [6]. - Technical indicators for oil show a bullish trend, with prices testing new highs around $78.40 per barrel, and a recommendation to buy on dips while watching resistance at $76.0-$77.0 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, gold prices have unexpectedly declined instead of increasing as would typically be expected for a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Group 2 - The actual impact of the current geopolitical conflict has not met expectations, as Israel's airstrikes on Iranian facilities have not resulted in significant damage to critical areas, and the situation remains at a critical threshold without escalating into full-scale war [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates has led to a strengthening of the US dollar, which diminishes the attractiveness of gold as it yields no interest, prompting investors to prefer holding dollars instead [4]. - The significant previous increase in gold prices, reaching a historical high of $3,450 in June, has led to profit-taking by many institutions, resulting in a surge of sell orders that have pressured gold prices downward [4]. Group 3 - For ordinary investors holding gold assets, it is advised not to rush into selling, as the situation in the Middle East remains unpredictable, and potential escalation could lead to a rebound in gold prices [5]. - Investors with a long-term view on gold for risk hedging should not be overly concerned, as central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, with a net purchase of 387 tons in the first quarter of this year, reinforcing gold's status as a hard currency [5]. - The recent decline in gold prices may present a buying opportunity, as lower prices enhance the cost-effectiveness of gold investments, emphasizing that gold should be viewed as a cornerstone of asset allocation rather than a speculative tool [5].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a minor fluctuation, referred to as a "black swan," but the overall trend remains upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a slight decline of only 0.75% [1][3] - The current market situation is characterized by a clear upward trend, and the majority of investors are misjudging the market direction, which hinders their ability to profit [1][3] - The impact of geopolitical issues in the Middle East is deemed limited and is not expected to disrupt the market's upward trajectory [3][5] Group 2 - A recovery in the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated within three days, with a potential return to 3400 points, indicating that the recent decline lacks substantial logic [5][7] - The market is expected to see significant upward movement once key sectors such as liquor and real estate begin to rebound, which could lead to accelerated gains [3][5] - Investors are advised to hold onto their positions during downturns and realize profits during upswings, emphasizing the importance of maintaining composure in the market [7]

ETF进化论 突发黑天鹅 ！全球大跳水 原创 阅读全文 ...

ETF进化论 突发黑天鹅 ！全球大跳水 原创 阅读全文 ...

老美是坚决反对伊L自制核武的，所以他们坚决不允许伊L哪怕拥有1%的浓缩铀。 最近 两国还因为伊L是否彻底放弃核能力开始了谈判 ， 美国当然是希望完全把伊L的核能力彻底阉割掉，但是伊L则坚持拥有铀浓缩能力是底线，两家没 有彻底谈拢，谈判进展不顺利。 黑天鹅事件来了！ 今天， 以S列 突然袭 击伊L ，不稳定的国际局势，再添一把柴火。 中东现在是全球最大的火药桶，冲突从未停止，而且随时有加剧的可能。 大家应该都留意到了，中东近几年的冲突，搞事情的一直都是以S列。 而以S列的背后是谁？ 其实大家都很清楚，就是 老美 。 没有老美撑腰，被伊斯兰国家包围的小国以S列根本不可能这么穷兵黩武。 袭击之后伊L那边也说了，以S列是在老美的支持下对伊L发动的袭击。 美国想动伊L，主要有两个方面的考虑： 一方面，是为了核安全。 既然没有谈拢，弱的不行就来硬的。 老美自己不动手，就放开掣肘让以S列干。 毕竟相比老美，其实 以S列更忌惮伊L的核能力 ，因为伊L只要拥有小型核武器，就能打到以S列 的本土，所以他们动手的决心甚至超过老美。 而且别忘了，老美在中东各国至少有64个军事基地，这些基地其实就是以S列出手的底气。 一边谈判一边打， ...

Group 1 - The market experienced a sudden downturn due to Israel's strike on Iran, leading to a rise in oil and gold prices while stock futures in Japan and the US fell sharply [1] - A significant sell-off occurred in the stock market, with a trading volume of 140 billion and 4,600 stocks declining, marking a notably negative trading day [4] - The market is characterized by various black swan events, and those who cannot endure short-term volatility may miss out on profits [3] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the market index is expected to recover in the afternoon, with a critical support level at 3,380 points [6] - The performance of key sectors such as banking, liquor, and securities will be crucial in stabilizing the market [6] - A shift in capital from high to low positions is anticipated after a sharp decline, which may not necessarily be negative for the market [6] Group 3 - The strategy proposed emphasizes avoiding stock trading and suggests that the market index will eventually reach new highs this year [8] - The conclusion indicates that the outcome of the market is predictable, and patience is required for returns, similar to how individuals exchange time for income in their jobs [8]

Rystad Energy石油部门主管Mukesh Sahdev则提供数据支撑，指出伊朗原油产量已从2019年低谷恢复至 400万桶/日水平，其中中国采购量增长构成重要支撑。他认为，伊朗可能采取的报复行动以及对霍尔木 兹海峡的封锁，对原油供应构成风险，不过鉴于美国宣称的谈判目标，冲突不太可能升级为全面战争。 西太平洋银行大宗商品主管Robert Renney从军事行动特征展开分析，认为本次精准打击伊朗军方高层 及核设施的行动，更像是一次性战略威慑而非全面战争开端，但强调"周末期间需警惕伊朗对以色列本 土的直接报复，这可能导致油价突破1月高点"。该机构仍维持中长期看空立场，预判三季度油价可能下 探60-65美元区间，四季度存在跌破60美元风险。 航运市场已率先作出反应。Oil Brokerage全球航运研究主管Anoop Singh指出，中东海湾区域集中着全球 15%的超大型原油运输船队，地缘风险升级将直接推高保险费用与航线成本。齐盛期货分析师高建基于 历史数据模型测算，参照前两轮伊以冲突后的市场反应，本次原油价格短期或存在3-5美元的上涨空 间。 面对复杂局势，国投安信期货首席能源分析师高明宇提出双轨策略：建 ...

Group 1: Dollar Outlook - Wall Street investment banks are generally bearish on the dollar, predicting it will weaken further due to slowing economic growth and policy uncertainty [1][2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts the dollar will drop to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic by mid-next year, with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs also holding negative views [1] - The ICE dollar index has seen a cumulative decline of nearly 8.5% this year, marking its worst performance in the first five months historically [1] Group 2: G7 Debt Burden - The substantial debt burden of G7 countries is emerging as a new pressure point in the market, with IMF data indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio will rise for four of the seven economies over the next five years [3] - The U.S. has lost its "AAA" rating from Moody's, and Japan's bond auctions are facing significant challenges, drawing global bond investors' attention [3] - Italy has become an unexpected stable winner due to a significant reduction in its budget deficit, while other G7 countries like the UK and France are also facing fiscal discipline challenges [3][4] Group 3: Japan's Bond Market - Japan's 10-year bond auction saw strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising from 2.54 to 3.66, significantly above the average for the past year [5] - However, the upcoming 30-year bond auction poses a challenge, as its yield recently hit a historical high of 3.185%, raising concerns about the Bank of Japan's exit from ultra-loose policies [5][6] - The Bank of Japan's potential reduction in bond purchases could steepen the yield curve, intensifying market worries about government borrowing capacity [6] Group 4: Alphabet (Google) Stock Outlook - Barclays warns that if a U.S. judge orders Google to sell its Chrome browser, Alphabet's stock could plummet by 15%-25%, significantly impacting its revenue [7][8] - Despite this, Goldman Sachs maintains a "buy" rating for Alphabet, projecting a 12-month target price of $220, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [8] - Alphabet's search business remains a core growth engine, with expected revenue growth from $198 billion in 2024 to $318 billion by 2030 [8] Group 5: Walmart's Membership Growth - Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise survey indicates that Walmart's subscription service, Walmart+, has maintained a high user base, continuing strong growth momentum [9][10] - The membership count has seen a year-on-year increase of approximately 29%, driving expectations for recurring sales growth and high-profit margin prospects [10] - This membership program enhances customer loyalty and attracts higher-income consumers, strengthening Walmart's e-commerce and advertising capabilities [10]