Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported that during the week of July 21 to July 27, a total of 9 companies submitted applications, 1 company passed the hearing, and 1 new stock was listed. Company Summaries - **GoerTek Inc.**: Submitted an application on July 21, focusing on smart sensing interaction solutions, particularly acoustic sensors. It is the fifth largest global provider in this sector with a market share of 2.2% and the largest in China. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 31.21 billion, RMB 30.01 billion, and RMB 45.36 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 3.26 billion, RMB 2.89 billion, and RMB 3.09 billion [2][2]. - **Guangdong Tianyu Semiconductor Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 22, specializing in silicon carbide epitaxial wafers. It holds the top position in China's market with a revenue market share of 30.6%. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 4.37 billion, RMB 11.71 billion, and RMB 5.2 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 281.4 million, RMB 95.88 million, and a loss of RMB 500 million [3][3]. - **Daheng Technology (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 22, known for its folding bicycles, holding a market share of 26.3% in volume and 36.5% in revenue in China. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 2.54 billion, RMB 3 billion, and RMB 4.51 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 314.34 million, RMB 34.85 million, and RMB 52.29 million [4][4]. - **Juzhi Technology Development Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 23, focusing on baby monitoring products. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 3.48 billion, and RMB 4.62 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 34.82 million, RMB 63.36 million, and RMB 94.69 million [5][6]. - **Jiangsu Zhonghui Yuantong Biotechnology Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 24, specializing in vaccines. Revenue for 2023 to 2025 was approximately RMB 52.17 million, RMB 260 million, and RMB 410,000 respectively, with net losses of RMB 425 million, RMB 259 million, and RMB 87.32 million [7][7]. - **Fujian Lemo IoT Technology Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 25, a leader in smart massage services in mainland China, with a market share of 33.9% to 42.9% from 2022 to 2024. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 3.30 billion, RMB 5.87 billion, and RMB 7.98 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 6.48 million, RMB 87.34 million, and RMB 85.81 million [8][8]. - **Anhui Jinyan High Clay New Materials Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 25, specializing in kaolin materials with a market share of 19.1%. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 1.90 billion, RMB 2.05 billion, and RMB 2.67 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 24.42 million, RMB 43.61 million, and RMB 52.60 million [9][9]. - **Shandong Shengruan Technology Co., Ltd.**: Submitted an application on July 26, providing digital solutions for energy and manufacturing sectors. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately RMB 3.91 billion, RMB 5.02 billion, and RMB 5.25 billion respectively, with net profits of RMB 37.60 million, RMB 53.70 million, and RMB 59.30 million [10][10]. - **AIWB Inc.**: Submitted an application on July 25, focusing on smart building solutions in Texas. Revenue for 2022 to 2024 was approximately USD 103 million, USD 121 million, and USD 105 million respectively, with net losses of USD 347,000, USD 620,000, and USD 531,000 [11][11]. Company Hearing and IPO - **Jiangsu Zhonghui Yuantong Biotechnology Co., Ltd.**: Passed the hearing on July 27, focusing on innovative vaccines with two core products. Revenue for 2023 to 2025 was approximately RMB 52.17 million, RMB 260 million, and RMB 410,000 respectively, with net losses of RMB 425 million, RMB 259 million, and RMB 87.32 million [12][12]. - **Vili Zhibo-B (09887.HK)**: Launched an IPO from July 17 to July 22, with a subscription rate of 3494.78 times in the public offering. The stock began trading on July 25 at HKD 67.10, a 91.71% increase [13][14].

Group 1 - Southbound funds recorded a net purchase of 201.84 billion HKD on July 25, bringing the total net purchase for the year to 8200.28 billion HKD, surpassing last year's total of 8079 billion HKD and the combined total from 2022 to 2023 [1][3] - This marks the 25th consecutive month of net purchases of Hong Kong stocks by southbound funds, with expectations that the annual net inflow could exceed 1 trillion HKD [3] - The Hang Seng Index has risen by 26.56% this year, leading global major stock indices, driven by ample liquidity and structural industry rotation [3] Group 2 - The proportion of southbound funds in the total trading volume of Hong Kong stocks has increased to approximately 35%, indicating a significant role in market activity [3] - Active public funds have increased their holdings in Hong Kong stocks from 25.8% at the end of last year to 32.5%, with an increase in allocation of 100 to 120 billion HKD this year [3] - The continuous inflow of southbound funds has positively impacted the valuation of Hong Kong stocks, with the AH premium index dropping to 123.4 points, the lowest since June 2020, reflecting a significant liquidity gap between Hong Kong and A-shares [4]

Group 1 - Public funds increased their holdings in the banking, telecommunications, and non-bank financial sectors by 1.6%, 1.6%, and 0.8% respectively in Q2 2025, while reducing their positions in food and beverage, automotive, and power equipment sectors by 2.1% and 0.9% [1] - The defense sector also saw increased interest from public funds due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties, ranking fourth in terms of increased holdings [1] - The holdings in the STAR Market by public funds rose by 0.4%, reaching a historical high of 14.8% [1] Group 2 - New fund issuance remained sluggish in Q2 2025, with a total of 59.9 billion units of actively managed equity and mixed funds issued, a year-on-year increase of 128%, but down 73% from the peak levels of 2020-2021 [4] - Active management funds have consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index since Q3, indicating potential for increased fund inflows as market performance improves [4] - Positive catalysts in high-holding sectors may lead to increased new fund issuance, providing additional liquidity and creating a positive feedback loop [4] Group 3 - Net inflows from southbound funds reached 273.9 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with the financial sector seeing the largest inflow [5] - Public funds' holdings in Hong Kong stocks increased by 1.5%, reaching 18.8%, a rise of 6.6 percentage points from Q4 2024 [5] - The AH premium significantly decreased in the first half of 2025 due to liquidity differences between A-shares and H-shares, with expectations of maintaining mid-term low levels [5] Group 4 - The "national team" is estimated to have increased its holdings in A-share ETFs by over 200 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with 65% directed towards CSI 300 index ETFs [6] - The "national team's" actions reflect a commitment to stabilizing the capital market and providing downside protection for A-shares [6] - In extreme scenarios, the "national team" has the capacity to further increase holdings to stabilize the market [7]

Group 1: Market Outlook - External negative factors are improving faster than expected, suggesting the market may reach new heights in the second half of the year[2] - The Hang Seng Index has the potential to break resistance levels with only a risk sentiment adjustment needed[3] - The third round of the Hong Kong stock market rally may start earlier than previously anticipated, driven by the Hang Seng Technology Index[12] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Focus on sectors with improving sentiment and low valuations, such as e-commerce and local services, which are showing signs of stabilization[3] - The technology sector is at the intersection of recovery and low valuation, making it suitable for institutional investors to "buy low"[3] - The coal, cement, and cyclical goods sectors may accelerate their recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy[3] Group 3: Capital Flow and Valuation - Southbound trading accounts for 40% of the turnover, indicating a shift in the importance of foreign capital in the Hong Kong market[5] - The AH premium is expected to decrease to around 26% or lower, driven by a weaker dollar and market dynamics[6] - Corporate earnings are improving, with the MSCI China Index's EPS expected to rise for the third consecutive year in 2025[7] Group 4: Long-term Investment Themes - Two long-term investment themes are highlighted: large financials and technology, which are seen as core assets for differentiated allocation in the Hong Kong market[7] - The Hong Kong capital market is undergoing profound changes, with policies supporting its status as an international financial center[7]

Group 1 - The article highlights the recent surge in A-share market sentiment, particularly driven by the announcement of the "super hydropower project" and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten industry growth stabilization plans [1][2][3] - A significant increase in trading activity is noted, with major industry ETFs, especially in the construction materials sector, experiencing substantial gains, including three construction material ETFs hitting the daily limit [1][2][3] - The overall market sentiment is described as highly optimistic, with a tendency for rapid price increases in response to positive news [3][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 5500 points, indicating a strong upward trend [6][8] - It emphasizes that while the market is experiencing a bullish phase, it does not advocate for a full-blown bull market, instead suggesting a focus on structural opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [8][9] - The article mentions that the national team (state-owned investment entities) did not sell any of their holdings during the second quarter, indicating confidence in the market [12][14] Group 3 - The article points out that the AH premium has reached a five-year low, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics between mainland and Hong Kong stocks [17][18] - It connects the outflow from broad-based ETFs to increased net buying in Hong Kong stocks, indicating a strategic shift among institutional investors [21][22] - The article reiterates that low interest rates are a fundamental driver of both stock market performance and bond market stability [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the brokerage sector [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes three main reasons for the positive outlook on brokerages: 1) The financial sector is currently lagging, with a high safety margin in valuations; 2) Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to show continued high growth in performance; 3) The absolute value of AH premium remains high, with ongoing valuation recovery in H-shares [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Reason 1: Financial Sector Lagging with High Valuation Safety Margin - Since the beginning of 2025, brokerages have underperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of only 0.1% compared to a 3.0 percentage point underperformance against the CSI 300 index. Within the financial sector, brokerages lag behind insurance, diversified finance, and banks by 10.1, 11.3, and 20.0 percentage points respectively. However, since June, the sector has shown positive excess returns against the CSI 300 [6][17] - As of July 18, 2025, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 1.50, which is around the 40th percentile of the relative valuation range since 2016, indicating a high safety margin [22][23] Reason 2: Upcoming Mid-Year Reports Expected to Show Continued High Growth - The market has maintained high trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1,390.2 billion yuan from January to June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 61.1%. The A-share IPO, refinancing, and bond underwriting scales for the same period are 37.4 billion yuan, 697.7 billion yuan, and 45 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.0%, 613.5%, and 16.6% respectively [7][30] - Among 31 brokerages that have disclosed performance forecasts, all expect a net profit growth rate of over 40%, with two companies projecting over 1000% growth [38] Reason 3: High Absolute Value of AH Premium and H-share Valuation Recovery - As of July 18, 2025, the AH premium for the brokerage sector stands at 68.1%, with the average AH premium for the entire industry at 62.0%. Notably, Citic Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and CICC maintain AH premiums above 100% [8][45] - The report highlights that the current AH premium levels for brokerages are historically high, with specific companies like Citic Securities at 133.8%, Guolian Minsheng at 118.0%, and CICC at 104.5% [48]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the continuous depreciation of the US dollar will reshape the premium relationship between A-shares and H-shares, creating differentiated investment opportunities for investors [1] - UBS predicts that a 10% decline in the DXY dollar index could lead to a 9% excess return for emerging markets, benefiting A-shares as part of this market [1][5] - The report indicates that the AH premium has a high positive correlation of 0.83 with the dollar index over the past 15 years, suggesting that H-shares may outperform A-shares in a weak dollar environment [1][13][15] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the US dollar will continue to weaken until 2025, citing structural reasons such as the expansion of US external debt from 9% of GDP in 2005 to 88% currently [2] - The report highlights that the phenomenon of "overholding" the dollar, where the US accounts for only 16% of global trade but the dollar constitutes 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, could lead to significant dollar sell-offs [2] - The report also notes that the historical data shows that when the RMB appreciates against the dollar, the CSI 300 index typically rises, providing support for A-shares in a weak dollar environment [9] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the weak dollar is a positive factor for global stock markets, with emerging markets likely being the biggest winners [5] - It is noted that foreign investors held 2.97 trillion RMB in A-shares as of the end of Q1 2025, accounting for only 3.4% of the total market capitalization [10] - Industries with high exposure to dollar-denominated debt, such as home appliances, transportation, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, are expected to benefit more from the dollar's weakness [12] Group 4 - The report indicates that the AH premium may remain at mid-term low levels in the second half of 2025 unless there is a significant liquidity improvement in the A-share market [18] - In the first half of 2025, net inflows from southbound funds reached 684.2 billion RMB, primarily flowing into Chinese internet giants, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, marking a 101% year-on-year increase [16] - The report suggests that H-shares may offer better investment opportunities in a weak dollar and globally loose liquidity environment, particularly in sectors benefiting from southbound fund inflows [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the securities industry [7]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has performed strongly, leading to a decline in the AH premium index, which has dropped by 11.6% year-to-date as of July 11, 2025 [5][10]. - The average AH premium across all A+H listed companies is currently 65.1%, with the non-bank financial sector at 79.0% [10][15]. - The top five industries with the highest AH premiums are: 1. Paper and Packaging: 191.9% 2. Chemicals: 146.0% 3. Automotive and Parts: 120.9% 4. Business Services: 92.5% 5. Oil and Petrochemicals: 90.5% [10][15]. Summary by Sections Current AH Premium Situation - As of July 11, 2025, there are 160 A+H listed companies, with the financial sector comprising 22.5% of the total number and 48.0% of the total market capitalization [10]. - The securities sector has an average AH premium of 74.7%, with notable companies like CITIC Securities at 18.3% and Huatai Securities at 23.9% [10][17]. Price Elasticity and Drawdown - The report analyzes the maximum price increase and current drawdown for A+H listed securities since the "924" period, highlighting that: - China Merchants Securities (H) has a maximum increase of 329.5% with a drawdown of -39.4% - CITIC Securities (H) has a maximum increase of 154.5% with a drawdown of -11.4% [10][18]. Company-Specific Performance - The report details the AH premium and related performance for specific companies, such as: - CITIC Jiantou: AH premium of 137.5% - Guolian Minsheng: AH premium of 128.1% - CICC: AH premium of 109.1% [10][17]. Market Comparison - The report includes a market performance comparison over the past 12 months, indicating that the securities industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index [8].

Market Performance - The equity market continues to perform well, with A-shares and H-shares showing resilience despite global risk factors such as increased tariffs from the U.S. [1][2] - The recent high risk appetite and capital-driven logic in the equity market is evident, with significant net buying in margin trading and high average positions in private equity [3] Capital Flow and Investment Trends - Margin trading has seen net buying for 14 out of the last 15 trading days, reaching new highs since the tariff announcement [3] - Private equity positions have increased, with the average stock position exceeding 77%, marking a two-year high [3] - The robotics sector has seen a surge in interest, particularly after contracts were awarded to companies like Yushutech and Zhiyuan Robotics, leading to significant gains in related ETFs [3] Foreign Investment Dynamics - Northbound capital, previously considered "smart money," has shown a mixed trend, with total market value held by foreign investors increasing but with structural adjustments in stock holdings [9][12] - The total market value of Northbound funds reached 2.29 trillion, with an increase of 871 billion compared to the end of 2024 [9] - The performance of Northbound funds suggests a "lying flat" state in terms of total A-share investment exposure, despite some structural adjustments in holdings [12] Sector Performance - Key sectors benefiting from foreign investment include electric vehicle manufacturers and mining companies, particularly those involved in lithium and copper [15] - Conversely, sectors like liquor and consumer goods have seen significant reductions in foreign holdings, indicating a shift in investment focus [16] Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector, particularly large banks, has faced selling pressure from foreign investors, which aligns with the buying activity in Hong Kong stocks [17] - The performance of A+H listed companies shows that Hong Kong shares have generally outperformed their A-share counterparts, leading to a compression of the A-H premium [20] Earnings Outlook - The upcoming earnings season is expected to reveal significant sectoral disparities, with strong performance anticipated in sectors like brokerage and gold mining, while sectors like liquor and solar energy may face challenges [30][32][36]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a surge in activity, driven by the "A+H" listing model, with significant contributions from large A-share companies seeking to raise capital in Hong Kong [1][10]. Group 1: IPO Market Dynamics - Bluefin Technology's IPO on July 9, 2023, raised HKD 54.83 billion, marking it as the largest financing project for Hong Kong IPOs in 2025 [1]. - The first half of the year saw the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) achieve a financing scale of HKD 880 billion, reclaiming its position as the top global IPO market [1]. - The trend of A-share companies listing in Hong Kong is expected to continue, with 180 A-share companies currently in line for H-share listings [10][11]. Group 2: Bluefin Technology's H-Share Listing - Bluefin Technology's H-share IPO is notable for being the first independent underwriting project in Hong Kong with a market value exceeding HKD 1 billion in nearly two decades [2]. - The company aims to use the raised funds primarily to enhance its overseas business presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and North America [5]. - The rapid process of Bluefin's H-share listing took only 100 days from application to completion, showcasing the efficiency of the HKEX [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The "A+H" listing model is becoming increasingly popular among A-share companies, driven by the need to attract global capital and enhance brand influence [10][11]. - The valuation disparity between A-shares and H-shares is prompting companies to choose the Hong Kong market for its higher valuation potential [8][9]. - The influx of foreign capital into the Hong Kong market is improving liquidity and driving up valuations, creating a positive feedback loop for companies considering H-share listings [9].