中信证券：中国资产迎红利时代，可聚焦三大主线，一是中国制造业定价权重估。"十五五"期间制造业 将从规模扩张转向份额优势，向定价权、利润转化，提升全球产业分工地位，具有份额优势、供给弹性 小、重置成本高的领域，长期利润率提升是核心投资线索，重点关注有色、化工、新能源行业；二是企 业出海深化。渗透初期品类可关注利润率抬升，加速阶段需紧盯全球产能布局，出海赛道已从工业品延 伸至技术服务、IP、文创、餐饮供应链等，机械、创新药、电力设备、军工行业是重点方向；三是科技 行情延续。需等待AI商业化场景的突破性节点打开想象空间，云侧生产力工具、个性化AI、端侧硬件 及应用均有机会，且云侧定价已相对充分；当AI向端侧扩散时，中国在硬件和应用端的竞争优势将显 现，重点布局半导体、算力、端侧硬件、AI应用领域。 消息面上 盘面上，油气概念爆发，石化油服、准油股份双双涨停。医药板块持续走高，细胞免疫治疗概念领涨， 开能健康、济民健康等多股涨停。银行板块表现强势，农业银行、工商银行双双创历史新高。消费板块 局部活跃，三元股份、中锐股份3连板，东百集团6天4板。锂电板块尾盘拉升，天际股份4天3板。下跌 方面，超硬材料股集体大跌，沃尔德 ...

明明认为，2026年财政政策将更加积极，赤字率或将继续维持在4%左右，专项债额度有望提升并向项 目建设倾斜；货币政策方面，降准降息空间依然存在，结构性货币工具将持续发力，央行继续进行国债 买卖。宏观政策层面对经济的支持力度仍将延续。 中经记者 罗辑 北京报道 11月11日，中信证券在深圳举办2026年资本市场年会。 中信证券多位首席分析师认为，A股上市公司正陆续从本国敞口的本土化企业转型为全球敞口的跨国公 司。中国资本市场也正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场，A股不仅是中国的A股，也是全球的A股。"十 五五"期间，中企在全球价值链分配中的位置有望进一步抬升，把份额优势转化为定价权，这是A股行 情迈向低波动慢牛的基础。展望2026年，从制造业定价权重估、企业出海深化到科技行情延续，市场或 呈现三大配置主线。 中国经济将延续波动中复苏的态势 中信证券首席经济学家明明表示，中国经济有望延续波动中复苏的态势。他预计2025年中国经济将实现 5%左右的增长目标，2026年将保持在4.9%左右。考虑基数因素及政策节奏，2026年的经济增长可能呈 现前低后高的节奏。 低波动慢牛的预判之下，展望2026年，"中国资产的红利时代才 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Conference hosted by CITIC Securities emphasizes the transformation of A-share companies from local to global players, highlighting the importance of global market positioning over domestic economic reliance [1] Group 1: Market Trends - A-share companies are increasingly becoming multinational, with sectors like new energy, resources, and culture gaining competitiveness from global market positions [1] - The current A-share market structure shows a shift towards absolute return-focused funds, which demand high risk and low elasticity, contrasting with traditional subjective long positions [1] - The diversification of information in the self-media era has reduced the influence of traditional channels on market sentiment, reflecting the adaptation of the A-share ecosystem to contemporary developments [1] Group 2: Industry Allocation - The first focus area is the quality upgrade of resource and traditional manufacturing industries, where Chinese manufacturing can leverage technology and R&D investments to enhance pricing power and profits [2] - The second focus is on Chinese companies' globalization, with initial investment opportunities in automotive and machinery sectors, now shifting towards consumer goods, energy-related, and TMT sectors during the accelerated overseas penetration phase [2] - The third focus is on the demand growth driven by new AI application scenarios, where the technology sector faces challenges of concentrated holdings and commercialization uncertainties, but future systemic trends will depend on new application developments [2]

Core Insights - Silicon-based Intelligence has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming for an IPO as a leading player in the AI sector in China, with a revenue of 655 million yuan in 2024, capturing 32.2% of the domestic digital human market [2][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Silicon-based Intelligence is the largest digital human company in China and ranks second globally, having delivered over 80,000 "Silicon-based labor forces" across various industries including telecommunications, finance, healthcare, education, and public services [4]. - The company’s revenue has grown significantly from 228 million yuan in 2022 to 655 million yuan in 2024, marking a 187% increase over two years [5]. Group 2: Revenue Sources - A substantial portion of the revenue growth is attributed to a single major client, China Unicom, which accounted for 90% of the revenue increase from 2022 to 2024, with its contribution rising from 36.9 million yuan in 2022 to 422 million yuan in 2024 [6][7]. - By the end of 2024, China Unicom is expected to represent 64.4% of Silicon-based Intelligence's total revenue [7]. Group 3: Client Strategy and Challenges - The company initially attempted to expand its client base by introducing a distribution model, increasing the number of distributors from 2 to 251 in 2023, but later reduced this number to 157 by the end of 2024 due to low retention rates among small clients [8][10]. - The average revenue per client, excluding China Unicom, was approximately 350,000 yuan, while the customer acquisition cost was 184,000 yuan, indicating a challenging profitability scenario [10][12]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The company faces structural challenges in the AI B2B market, where small enterprises lack budgets for AI products, and large enterprises demand extensive customization, leading to compressed profit margins [17][18]. - The reliance on a few large clients limits pricing power and creates vulnerability in revenue streams, as evidenced by the declining gross margin from 45.8% in 2023 to 31.6% in the first half of 2025 [15][14]. Group 5: Broader Industry Implications - The situation of Silicon-based Intelligence reflects broader issues in the AI industry, where companies struggle to balance between serving small clients with high acquisition costs and large clients with demanding customization needs [18][19]. - The challenges faced by Silicon-based Intelligence highlight the difficulties in achieving sustainable profitability in the rapidly evolving AI landscape, despite being positioned in a high-growth sector [16][19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of the large model sector in China, highlighting the competitive landscape where companies like MiniMax and Zhipu are making significant strides towards IPOs while others struggle for survival [2][10]. Group 1: Company Developments - MiniMax has recently launched its MiniMax-M2 model, which has quickly gained traction, ranking among the top five globally and first in open-source models on the Artificial Analysis (AA) leaderboard [4][5]. - Zhipu released its flagship GLM-4.6 model, which is positioned as a leading coding model, aligning with MiniMax's focus on coding and agent functionalities [2][6]. - MiniMax's M2 model has achieved impressive metrics, including being the third most called model on the OpenRouter platform within just five days of launch [5][13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is characterized by rapid technological iterations, with major players like Alibaba and OpenAI pushing for faster updates, compressing the performance advantage window from six months to three [9][11]. - The article notes that the commercial viability of models is becoming increasingly important, as demonstrated by Anthropic's market share growth from 12% to 32% in the code generation sector [11][18]. Group 3: Pricing and Performance - MiniMax's M2 model offers competitive pricing at $0.3 per million tokens for input and $1.2 for output, significantly lower than its competitors, while also providing faster inference speeds [6][12]. - The founder of MiniMax emphasizes the need for a balance between performance, price, and inference speed, aiming to make high-quality models accessible to a broader audience [12][15]. Group 4: Investment and Valuation - MiniMax has attracted significant investment from major firms, leading to a valuation increase that positions it as a frontrunner among China's large model companies [15][18]. - The article highlights the importance of commercial success in sustaining valuation, with MiniMax's approach focusing on practical applications and API accessibility for businesses [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [10] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in operations and rapid progress in commercialization, particularly in AI applications within vertical industries such as education and healthcare [7] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 16.989 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.067 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.6% increase year-on-year [7] - The company achieved a net profit of 1.72 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a substantial year-on-year growth of 202.40%, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A at 19.65 billion yuan, 2024A at 23.34 billion yuan, 2025E at 27.68 billion yuan, 2026E at 31.62 billion yuan, and 2027E at 36.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4%, 19%, 19%, 14%, and 15% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 0.657 billion yuan for 2023A, 0.560 billion yuan for 2024A, 0.877 billion yuan for 2025E, 1.215 billion yuan for 2026E, and 1.597 billion yuan for 2027E, with growth rates of 17%, -15%, 57%, 39%, and 31% respectively [2] - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 40%, demonstrating strong market competitiveness [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a leading position in AI commercialization, particularly through its "Xunfei Spark" model, which has seen significant project wins in the education and healthcare sectors [7] - The report highlights the importance of the developer ecosystem and the company's focus on self-controlled core technologies, which have contributed to its market position and revenue growth [7] - The company is also expanding its international business and enhancing its developer ecosystem, which is expected to bring long-term value [7]

Core Insights - The AI industry is at a critical juncture where companies must find sustainable monetization strategies to survive and thrive in a competitive landscape [1][4][35] - Major players are exploring different commercial strategies, categorized into three main logics: survival, value, and incremental growth [19][35] Group 1: Commercialization Strategies - **Survival Logic**: Companies like OpenAI and emerging AI startups are focused on establishing a viable business model to ensure their survival amid increasing competition and market pressures [4][19] - **Value Logic**: Established giants like Alibaba are leveraging AI to secure strategic positions in future human-computer interaction, focusing on long-term value creation rather than immediate profits [12][19] - **Incremental Logic**: Companies such as Doubao AI are seeking to capitalize on existing user bases and traffic to explore new revenue streams, particularly in e-commerce [15][19] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The AI commercialization landscape is evolving with various paths, including hardware solutions like AI glasses and software solutions that encompass API calls and subscription models [20][22] - The integration of AI in e-commerce is seen as a significant opportunity, with companies like OpenAI aiming to create seamless shopping experiences directly within AI interfaces [26][30] - The competitive landscape is shifting from a focus on technological superiority to ecosystem control, emphasizing the importance of strategic positioning in the market [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's Q3 2025 earnings report exceeded revenue expectations but provided slightly lower guidance for operating profit in Q4 2025 [4][5]. Revenue and Profit Summary - Q3 2025 net sales reached $180.17 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13.4%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 1.32% [5] - Operating profit was $17.42 billion, which was 11.7% below consensus expectations, primarily due to one-time expenses; operating margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 9.7% [5] - Net profit stood at $21.18 billion, with an EPS of $1.95, exceeding consensus estimates by 25.3% [5] - Q4 2025 net sales guidance is set between $206 billion and $213 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 9.7% to 13.4%, while operating profit guidance is between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1% to 22.6% [5] AWS Performance - AWS revenue accelerated to $33 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 20.2% year-over-year growth compared to 17.5% in Q2 2025; AWS operating margin was 34.6%, up 1.7 percentage points quarter-over-quarter but down 3.4 percentage points year-over-year [6] - Demand for the self-developed chip Trainium2 is high, with revenue growth of 150% quarter-over-quarter, and future services are expected to expand to small and medium-sized clients [6] E-commerce Division Insights - In the e-commerce segment, North America reported an operating profit of $4.79 billion with a margin of 3.3%, while international operations generated $1.2 billion with a margin of 2.9%; both regions experienced declines in operating margins due to one-time legal settlements and job cut expenses [7] - The AI e-commerce assistant Rufus has reached 250 million annual active users, with a 140% year-over-year increase in monthly users, potentially leading to over $10 billion in annual sales [7] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - Amazon's capital expenditure for the trailing twelve months (TTM) was $115.9 billion, a 77.1% increase year-over-year, with Q3 2025 cash capital expenditure at $34.2 billion [9] - For 2025, cash capital expenditure is projected to reach $125 billion, a 60% increase, with expectations of continued growth into 2026 and a doubling of overall capacity by the end of 2027; current capacity constraints are primarily related to power supply [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of the communication ETF (515880), which has seen a year-to-date increase of over 100%, making it the top-performing ETF in the market [1] - The acceleration of the AI commercial closed loop is leading to a surge in demand for reasoning clusters in North America, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the optical communication industry [1] - The optical module market is expected to maintain high prosperity due to continuous investment in computing infrastructure both domestically and internationally, with optical modules accounting for 52% of the communication ETF [1] Group 2 - As of October 30, 2025, the communication ETF has a scale of 11.629 billion, ranking first among 15 similar products [2] - The weight distribution of the ETF components as of October 28, 2025, shows that optical modules, servers, and other segments collectively account for over 81% of the ETF [1][2] - The ongoing growth in AI reasoning traffic and computational density is anticipated to sustain long-term demand in the optical communication sector [1]

Group 1: Innovation Drug ETFs Performance - On October 31, innovation drug-themed ETFs collectively surged, with the top ten ETFs all being innovation drug-themed, each rising over 5% [1][2] - The top performers included the Science and Technology Innovation Drug ETFs from Huatai and Guotai, both exceeding 7% gains [2][3] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETFs also showed strong performance, with gains over 5% [2][3] Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - On October 31, 11 ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 10 billion yuan, including several bond ETFs and cross-border ETFs like the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovation Drug ETF [1][6] - On October 30, several industry ETFs, including securities, Hong Kong innovation drug, and medical ETFs, saw significant net inflows [8][9] - The previous trading day, broad-based ETFs experienced substantial net inflows, with those tracking the CSI 500 seeing over 1.1 billion yuan [8][9] Group 3: Decline in Communication Equipment ETFs - On October 31, communication equipment ETFs and communication ETFs led the decline, both dropping over 5% [4][5] - Specific ETFs such as the 5GETF and semiconductor equipment ETFs also experienced declines exceeding 4% [4][5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Innovation Drugs - The investment outlook for innovation drugs remains positive, with potential catalysts in the fourth quarter that could reactivate market sentiment [10] - The biotech sector in China is positioned as a key choice for multinational pharmaceutical companies due to its engineering talent and cost advantages [10] - The trend of domestic brands expanding internationally, particularly in sectors like automotive and innovation drugs, is expected to open up further market opportunities [10]