Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights the expected surge in AI hardware demand driven by the increasing capabilities of large models and diverse application scenarios by the second half of 2025 [1] - Key trends to watch include the growing certainty of domestic and international computing power chain demand, the rising importance of networks in AIDC, and the accelerated deployment of AI applications such as Agents [1] Group 1: AI Hardware Demand - The demand for AI hardware is anticipated to grow significantly as AI inference computing power requirements continue to rise [1] - The SW communication equipment sector saw a 31.4% increase as of August 8, 2025, outperforming the broader market [1] - The computing power chain remains a primary investment theme, influenced by factors such as the release of DeepSeek R1 and expectations surrounding North American AI [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Three main investment directions in AI are suggested: 1. New hardware technologies, with a focus on AI ASICs that offer lower costs and better power efficiency [2] 2. Domestic production, with the resumption of H20 deliveries and the ongoing improvement of the domestic AI chip supply chain [2] 3. AI applications, particularly the acceleration of terminal innovations and the growth of IoT device connectivity [2] Group 3: Telecom Capital Expenditure - Telecom capital expenditures are increasingly directed towards computing networks, with a projected 9.1% year-on-year decrease to 289.8 billion yuan in 2025 [3] - The cumulative mobile internet traffic reached 186.7 billion GB in the first half of 2025, marking a 16.4% year-on-year increase [3] - Key areas of opportunity include the accelerated deployment of 5G-A, advancements in 6G technology, and the growing demand for new types of optical fibers driven by AI [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB for H1 2025, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with cloud service revenue growing by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB [4] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross profit of 2.095 billion RMB, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 65.6%, which is above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 65.2% [4] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was approximately 97.74 million RMB, which was worse than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a loss of 72.53 million RMB, primarily due to a 39% increase in management expenses [4] - The company had 11,043 employees as of H1 2025, down from 12,149 at the end of 2024 [4] Group 2: Subscription and Customer Growth - The company restructured its revenue segments to focus on cloud subscription revenue, which reached 1.684 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 22.1% year-on-year increase, accounting for 52.8% of total revenue [5] - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions grew by 18.5% to 3.73 billion RMB, with contract liabilities increasing by 24.7% to 3.38 billion RMB [5] - The company signed 304 new customers, including major firms like Geely Holding and Moutai Technology, contributing to a revenue of 845 million RMB from its flagship products [5] Group 3: AI Commercialization Progress - The company disclosed that the AI contract amount exceeded 150 million RMB in H1 2025, with the launch of several AI-native products [6] - Active users of the AI assistant for small and micro enterprises reached 170,000, significantly improving accounting efficiency by approximately 80% and invoicing efficiency by about 40% [6] - Key clients for AI solutions include Hisense Group and China CNR Corporation, indicating strong market interest and adoption [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The July US inflation data met expectations, with a controllable impact from tariffs. The month-on-month inflation rate for goods remained stable at +0.2%, despite tariff effects spreading to the automotive sector. Prices in previously affected categories like clothing, home appliances, and entertainment have started to decline, likely due to reduced consumer demand leading companies to absorb tariff costs [5]. - Weak employment data combined with moderate inflation has raised expectations for a rate cut in September, with a probability of 94.3% for such an action [5]. Group 2: Company Performance Analysis - Wei Xing New Materials (002372.SZ) reported a decline in revenue and net profit due to weak downstream demand in H1 2025. However, the company maintained a high level of operational quality, showing year-on-year improvement, which is commendable under current market conditions [6]. - Ampere Dragon (301413.SZ) has an optimistic outlook with projected revenue growth of 24.6%, 53.9%, and 89.8% for 2025-2027 compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to grow by 43.7%, 86.2%, and 131.3% respectively, indicating strong business growth expectations despite some concerns over profit margins due to client cost-cutting pressures [7]. - Kingdee International (0268.HK) achieved total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. Cloud service revenue grew by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB, with a gross profit of 2.095 billion RMB, reflecting a gross margin of 65.6%, slightly above market expectations [8]. - Jinbo Bio (832982.BJ) reported a revenue of 860 million RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 42.4%, with net profit growing by 26.7%. The revenue for Q1 and Q2 was 370 million RMB and 490 million RMB respectively, showing significant growth rates [9]. - Action Education (605098.SH) faced short-term business pressure with a revenue decline of 11.7% to 340 million RMB in H1 2025. However, the company is advancing its AI strategic transformation and maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [9].

Group 1 - The technology stocks showed strong performance in early trading, with Tencent Music rising by 15.52% to HKD 102, Bilibili up by 5.68% to HKD 186, Alibaba increasing by 4.46% to HKD 121.8, Baidu up by 3.43% to HKD 87.55, and Tencent rising by 3.49% to HKD 579 [1] - The US July CPI remained flat year-on-year at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] - Following the CPI data release, the market anticipates a greater than 90% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September [1] - Longcheng Securities indicated that the relative weakness of the Hang Seng Technology Index is not a long-term trend, as the strong dollar situation may not persist and the significant downward revision of US non-farm payrolls has ignited expectations for a rate cut [1] - The current dynamic PE of the Hang Seng Technology Index is only 21.87 times, highlighting its value proposition, and the acceleration of AI commercialization along with mid-year performance verification is expected to attract funds back into the growth sector [1] Group 2 - Tencent is set to release its Q2 2025 financial report today, with Citigroup expecting stable performance, estimating a 4.9% year-on-year increase in non-GAAP net profit to CNY 60.1 billion [2] - Revenue and profit are anticipated to meet or exceed both Citigroup's and market consensus expectations, with potential upside in the gaming business due to new game contributions and deferred revenue [2] - Citigroup forecasts that Tencent's gaming business will show robust revenue supported by strong seasonal factors, new game releases, and content upgrades entering Q3 2025, along with updates on AI models and new features [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a strong performance of tech stocks in Hong Kong, with notable increases in share prices for Tencent Music, Bilibili, Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent [1] - The U.S. July CPI remained flat at 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose 3.1%, exceeding expectations and marking a new high since February [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have surged to over 90% following the CPI data release, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Tencent is set to release its Q2 2025 financial report, with Citigroup anticipating a steady performance, projecting a 4.9% year-on-year increase in non-GAAP net profit to 60.1 billion yuan [2] - Citigroup expects Tencent's revenue and profit to meet or exceed market consensus, driven by new game contributions and deferred revenue in its gaming business [2] - The report is expected to highlight advancements in AI models and new features, alongside updates on new game pipelines and macro outlook [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB for H1 2025, showing an 11.2% year-on-year growth, with cloud service revenue growing by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB, indicating a strong performance despite a net loss [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for H1 2025 reached 3.19 billion RMB, slightly below Bloomberg consensus of 3.21 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [1] - Gross profit amounted to 2.095 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.4% year-on-year increase, resulting in a gross margin of 65.6%, surpassing the expected 65.2% [1] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 97.74 million RMB, worse than the expected loss of 72.53 million RMB, primarily due to a 39% increase in management expenses [1] Group 2: Subscription and Customer Growth - Cloud subscription revenue for H1 2025 was 1.684 billion RMB, a 22.1% increase year-on-year, accounting for 52.8% of total revenue [2] - The Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from cloud subscriptions grew by 18.5% to 3.73 billion RMB, with contract liabilities increasing by 24.7% to 3.38 billion RMB [2] - The company signed 304 new customers, including major firms like Geely Holding and Mengniu Group, contributing to a strong customer base expansion [2] Group 3: AI Commercialization and Product Development - The company disclosed that AI contract amounts exceeded 150 million RMB in H1 2025, indicating significant progress in AI commercialization [3] - New AI products were launched, including the Cloud AI Agent platform 2.0, enhancing operational efficiency for small and micro enterprises [3] - Active users of the AI assistant for small micro products reached 170,000, showcasing the growing adoption of AI solutions [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion RMB, reflecting a slight downward revision due to macroeconomic impacts [3] - Net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 were raised to 160 million, 480 million, and 880 million RMB, indicating improved profitability outlook [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating, emphasizing its leadership in the ERP market and the potential enhancement of product capabilities through AI [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingdee International (0268.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 3.19 billion RMB in 25H1, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, with cloud service revenue growing by 11.9% to 2.67 billion RMB [1] - The gross profit reached 2.095 billion RMB, reflecting a 15.4% year-on-year growth, resulting in a gross margin of 65.6% [1] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately 97.74 million RMB, which was higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a loss of 72.53 million RMB [1] Revenue Breakdown - The company restructured its revenue segments to focus on cloud subscription revenue, which accounted for 52.8% of total revenue in 25H1, up from 48.1% in 24H1 [2] - Cloud subscription revenue reached 1.684 billion RMB, a 22.1% year-on-year increase, with an annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth of 18.5% to 3.73 billion RMB [2] - The company signed 304 new clients, including major enterprises like Geely Holding and Mengniu Group, contributing to a net dollar retention (NDR) of 108% for its Cangqiong & Xinghan business unit [2] AI Commercialization Progress - The company reported AI contract amounts exceeding 150 million RMB in 1H25, with the launch of several AI-native products [3] - Active users of the AI assistant for small and micro enterprises reached 170,000, significantly improving accounting and invoicing efficiencies [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 25-27 has been slightly revised down to 6.9 billion, 7.7 billion, and 8.5 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a minor adjustment due to macroeconomic impacts [4] - The net profit forecast for 25-27 has been upgraded to 160 million, 480 million, and 880 million RMB respectively, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [4] - The report emphasizes that Kingdee, as a leading domestic ERP provider, is expected to enhance its product capabilities with AI integration [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [10] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 1.57% increase in the 32nd week of 2025, ranking 22nd among major industries, and a 22.42% increase since the beginning of the year, ranking 4th [2][5] - The release of GPT-5 and Genie 3 has significantly boosted AI commercialization metrics, leading to increased infrastructure investments [6] - The trend towards Scale-up architecture is confirmed, with multi-mode fiber technology upgrades driving demand for optical interconnects and high-speed optical modules [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 32nd week of 2025, the communication sector increased by 1.57%, ranking 22nd among major industries; since the start of the year, it has risen by 22.42%, ranking 4th [2][5] - Notable stock performances include Kesi Technology (+22.3%), Dongxin Peace (+17.1%), and Qiyi Er (+16.9%) for gains, while Tianfu Communication (-6.7%), Yingstone Network (-4.3%), and Lian Te Technology (-3.5%) faced declines [5] AI Commercialization - OpenAI's GPT-5 integrates rapid response and deep reasoning, enhancing multi-modal capabilities and reducing factual errors significantly; ChatGPT's weekly active users approach 700 million, a year-on-year increase of over 400% [6] - The annual recurring revenue (ARR) for AI applications has risen to approximately $13 billion, with expectations to exceed $20 billion by year-end [6] Optical Interconnect and Fiber Technology - The shift from Scale-out to Scale-up architecture is driving high-density interconnect demand; domestic leaders are accelerating multi-mode fiber production [7] - Companies like FiberHome are targeting an annual production capacity of 4 million core kilometers by 2026, while Hengtong Optics is expanding its advanced fiber materials R&D center [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended operators include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [8] - For optical modules, key recommendations are Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Shijia Photon, with a focus on Tai Chen Guang and Yuan Jie Technology [8] - In the domestic computing sector, recommended companies include FiberHome, Huafeng Technology, and ZTE Corporation [8] - AI application recommendations include Heertai, Tuobang Technology, and Meige Intelligent [8] - For satellite applications, recommended companies are Haige Communication and Huace Navigation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai International suggests leveraging the current market pullback to focus on dual main lines of policy and industry resonance, particularly in sectors like biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power, as well as benefiting from policies in upstream cyclical industries like steel, cement, and coal [1][6] Economic Outlook - China's GDP growth for the first half of 2025 is projected at 5.3%, with a notable recovery in decision-making confidence, reducing the necessity for strong short-term stimulus [3] - Structural concerns are highlighted, including a nominal GDP growth rate of 3.9% and a negative deflation index for nine consecutive quarters, indicating ongoing price pressures [3] - Economic recovery is uneven, with strong export investment but pressure on consumption and real estate [3] Market Conditions - The Hang Seng Index's forecasted PE has returned to levels seen in 2018-2019, with risk premiums at historical lows and AH premium indices at a six-year low, indicating limited room for valuation expansion [1][5] - The market is expected to face short-term pressure due to weak economic data, limited strong stimulus measures, and potential liquidity contraction from U.S. Treasury issuance [1][5] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on sectors that can benefit from policy changes and technological breakthroughs, including biomedicine, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and AI computing power [1][6] - It also emphasizes the importance of structural reforms and targeted policies to support new infrastructure and improve supply-side conditions [3][5] International Trade and Monetary Policy - The U.S. economic outlook shows signs of weakness, with a significant drop in consumer and private investment growth, raising concerns about a potential recession [4] - The market anticipates a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut in September, which could influence Hong Kong's risk premium and market conditions [4][5] Capital Flows - As of August 1, 2023, the Hong Kong Stock Connect has seen a net inflow of HKD 879 billion, surpassing last year's total, although there is a notable divergence in international capital flows [5] - Passive funds have seen inflows, while active funds have experienced outflows, indicating a need for price stabilization and resolution of real estate risks for systemic foreign capital return [5]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded last week, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.4% to close at 24,858 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing 1.2% to 5,460 points. The average daily trading volume decreased by 22.1% week-on-week to over 226.5 billion HKD, while net inflow from the Stock Connect was 21.7 billion HKD. All 12 major sectors in the Hong Kong stock market saw gains, with the materials sector surging 11.0% and the healthcare sector rising only 0.1%, the lowest performer [1]. Earnings Expectations - Current earnings expectations for Hong Kong stocks remain robust, with projected earnings growth rates of 2.7% and 8.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. The upstream resources sector benefits from anti-involution policies, coupled with stabilization in the Chinese bond market supporting earnings upgrades. However, short-term valuations have significantly recovered, with the Hang Seng Index's forecast PE returning to mid-range levels of 2018-2019, leading to a high-level consolidation phase in the market [1]. Sector Performance - The automotive sector saw a counter-trend increase last week, with new energy vehicle stocks like Li Auto and NIO rising 1%-3%. Dongfeng Motor surged 22.8% due to domestic anti-involution policies and potential state-owned enterprise restructuring news, outperforming its peers [3]. Industry Dynamics - The environmental, photovoltaic, wind power, natural gas, and electric equipment sectors have shown relative outperformance against the market, with average leads of 1.0%, 2.2%, 0.2%, 17.0%, and 2.2% percentage points, respectively, as of July 31. Conversely, the thermal power, nuclear power, and water supply sectors lagged behind by 0.6%, 6.1%, and 0.5% percentage points, respectively [4]. Power Generation Sector - The thermal power sector is expected to be impacted by rising coal prices, with July coal prices showing a narrowing year-on-year decline. The seasonal increase in coal demand has led to a month-on-month rise in prices, while coal inventories at major ports have decreased [5]. Electric Equipment Sector - The launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion RMB and an expected capacity of 60-70 GW, is anticipated to significantly boost the national hydropower capacity. However, the long construction period may limit short-term profitability for related electric equipment manufacturers, who may face challenges in passing on rising costs to investors [6]. Photovoltaic Sector - As of July 30, the average price of polysilicon rose to 4.94 USD/kg, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 17.1%. In contrast, the average price of photovoltaic modules decreased by 22.4% year-on-year, indicating that downstream demand needs to strengthen to confirm the price increases in polysilicon [7]. Stock Recommendations - Harbin Electric (1133 HK) is positioned to benefit from the Yarlung Tsangpo project, with a projected 95.0% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025. Hong Kong and China Gas (1083 HK) expects moderate growth in natural gas sales, with a projected dividend yield of 4.8% for FY25. Cheung Kong Infrastructure (1038 HK) is stable in its operations across public utilities in the UK and Australia/New Zealand, also projecting a 4.8% dividend yield for FY25 [8]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The healthcare sector has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising 22.8% last month, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by nearly 20 percentage points. Policy support for innovative drug development and successful overseas collaborations for Chinese pharmaceutical companies have contributed to this growth [10]. Policy Developments - The government plans to establish a new directory for innovative drugs and support the use of medical insurance data for drug development, which is expected to enhance the sales of high-priced innovative drugs and accelerate research and development processes [11]. Drug Procurement Policy - The latest drug procurement policy is expected to trend towards moderation, allowing medical institutions to select brands for procurement, which may benefit high-quality products. The new rules aim to ensure that the lowest bids are reasonable and not below cost, thus maintaining the quality of procured drugs [12]. Key Individual Stocks - China Biologic Products (1177 HK) is projected to achieve double-digit growth in product sales revenue for 2025, bolstered by a significant milestone payment from Merck. Haijia Medical (6078 HK) is expected to benefit from the easing of government policies regarding medical insurance, which may improve its operating environment [13].