Core Viewpoint - The currency market may be overly optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, as indicated by Société Générale's rate strategists [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest dollar index price is reported at 98.35, with a decline of 0.05% from an opening price of 98.44 [1] - The strategists highlight that U.S. inflation is deviating from targets and employment growth is slowing, creating a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to July's non-farm payroll data is considered excessive, with the slowdown in job growth potentially aligning with a stable unemployment rate [1] - The currency market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice in 2025 [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator is currently above the zero line, suggesting potential short-term price rebound, with a current MACD value of 0.0477 indicating ongoing upward momentum [1]

Group 1 - Oil prices showed a moderate recovery on Thursday, with Brent crude futures rising by $0.28 to $65.91 per barrel, an increase of 0.43%, and WTI crude futures up by $0.23 to $62.89 per barrel, an increase of 0.37% [1] - Geopolitical risks are currently a core variable in the market, with the upcoming US-Russia presidential meeting raising risk premiums. Trump warned of "serious consequences" for Russia if no peace consensus is reached on Ukraine, including potential economic sanctions [3] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in its September meeting, with a nearly 100% probability of a rate cut, and an increasing likelihood of a 50 basis point reduction [3] Group 2 - The EIA reported an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories by 3 million barrels for the week ending August 8, significantly exceeding market expectations of a decrease of 275,000 barrels [3] - IEA's latest forecast indicates that global oil supply growth in 2025 and 2026 will exceed expectations, driven mainly by OPEC+ production plans and non-OPEC countries' capacity expansion [3] - Technical analysis shows that WTI crude prices found initial support around $62.50 per barrel, with resistance near the $64.20-$64.50 range, close to the 20-day moving average [4] Group 3 - The oil market is currently in a tug-of-war between bullish geopolitical risks and dovish monetary policy expectations, while inventory accumulation and supply expansion exert downward pressure [6] - Short-term volatility will largely depend on the outcome of the US-Russia meeting and the Federal Reserve's policy path in September [6]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has risen, currently trading around 1.16, with a slight increase of 0.08% from the previous close of 1.1612 [1] - Investors are reluctant to abandon recent gains in risk assets like stocks, while remaining cautious ahead of key data releases this week, including the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and UK GDP data [1] - The cost of credit default swaps (CDS) for euro-denominated high-yield bonds has slightly decreased, indicating a potential easing in credit risk perception [1] Group 2 - The iTraxx Europe crossover index, which tracks euro junk bond CDS, has decreased by 1 basis point to 266 basis points, reflecting a slight improvement in market sentiment [1] - Key support levels for the euro against the dollar are identified at 1.1607 and further down at 1.1513, while resistance levels are noted at 1.1698 and 1.1701 [1] - The current market outlook suggests a higher probability of a rebound towards the upper Bollinger band, unless there is a significant drop in MACD and RSI indicators [1]

Group 1 - Recent strong performance of thematic stocks, with the CSI 1000 index reaching a new high [2] - The 2-hour chart indicates a 3-wave structure in an upward trend, with the C wave currently in the C5 phase [2] - The 2-hour chart has shown 7 consecutive bullish candles, suggesting an increasing probability of a bearish reversal soon [2] Group 2 - Weaker performance observed in heavyweight stocks, with the FTSE A50 index futures closing down [4] - The 4-hour chart shows a 3-wave downward structure followed by a rebound, which is currently facing resistance at the neckline [4] - The upcoming period around the start of autumn may reveal whether the market will peak or continue to rise significantly [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses common challenges faced by retail investors in technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding key indicators and market behavior [1][3] - It highlights that using only two indicators, moving averages and trading volume, can provide a clearer picture of market trends compared to relying on multiple complex indicators [3] - The article stresses the significance of identifying support and resistance levels based on historical trading volume rather than arbitrary price points [3][4] Group 2 - It addresses the common frustration of buying high and selling low, suggesting that true market movements can be confirmed by analyzing trading volume during breakouts or breakdowns [3][4] - The article advises against a one-size-fits-all approach to setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, recommending adjustments based on the investor's holding period and market volatility [4] - It concludes that technical analysis should adapt to market conditions, emphasizing the need for investors to understand the underlying market dynamics rather than relying solely on indicators [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. housing market and the impact of mortgage rates, highlighting the disconnect between Federal Reserve policies and actual mortgage rates, as well as ongoing supply issues in the housing sector [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Mortgage Rates - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the Fed cannot control mortgage rates, which are more closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rather than the federal funds rate [1] - Despite the Fed's interest rate cuts, mortgage rates have not decreased and have instead risen since the Fed began lowering rates last year [1] Group 2: Housing Market Challenges - President Trump emphasized the need for the Fed to facilitate home purchases and refinancing, but acknowledged that rate cuts alone won't resolve the housing market's long-term supply issues [1] - The housing market is facing significant challenges, including a shortage of long-term supply, rising costs of building materials due to tariffs, and a labor shortage exacerbated by the deportation of foreign workers [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices surged to approximately $3,357, maintaining a bullish trend due to the passage of Trump's "big and beautiful plan" in the Senate and the approaching deadline for tariff suspension on July 9, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets [1] - The Republican-majority Senate approved a broad tax and spending bill that will cut several social service programs, potentially increasing the deficit by $3 trillion over the next decade, which may stimulate inflation and increase the debt burden, positively impacting the gold market [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that stable economic activity allows the Fed to wait and observe the impact of tariff increases on prices and economic growth before deciding on interest rate cuts, with a focus on inflation data and labor market signs [1] Technical Analysis - The gold price has formed a standard double bottom pattern at low levels, initiating a strong upward trend, with bullish momentum continuing; a consolidation phase is expected before reaching new highs [4] - The MACD indicator shows a death cross signal, indicating a shift into a consolidation phase, with potential for a new bullish wave after sufficient adjustment [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a long position is suggested at $3,320 with a stop loss at $3,310 and a target range of $3,335 to $3,357 [5] - For silver, a long position is recommended at $35.80 with a stop loss at $35.50 and a target range of $36.30 to $36.70 [9] News Events - Upcoming economic indicators include the Eurozone unemployment rate for May at 17:00, U.S. Challenger job cuts for June at 19:30, and U.S. ADP employment numbers for June at 20:15 [9]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies potential price turning points by observing divergences between price trends and volume or technical indicators (e.g., MACD). Divergences signal weakening momentum, suggesting a possible reversal in the price trend [2][9]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Identify price making new highs or lows. 2. Check if corresponding volume or MACD fails to make new highs or lows, indicating divergence. 3. Confirm divergence using additional signals: - For MACD, use green bar shortening or yellow/white line crossover for confirmation [10]. - Apply wave theory to filter valid signals by identifying five-wave structures in trends [14][16]. 4. Combine divergence signals with moving averages to determine market conditions (e.g., bull or bear market) [14][16]. - **Model Evaluation**: Divergence signals alone have a success rate of less than 55% for predicting turning points. However, combining them with wave theory and moving averages improves accuracy to over 65% [13][16][17]. 2. Model Name: V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses the "Temperature Indicator" to measure the degree of price deviation from moving averages, identifying extreme conditions that may signal V-shaped reversals [3][18][19]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Calculate a moving average (e.g., 60-day for short-term trends, annual for long-term trends). 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Compute the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Calculate the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the "Temperature Indicator," which ranges from 0 to 100 [18][19]. 6. Define thresholds for identifying turning points: - In bear markets, both high-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators must fall below 10. - In range-bound markets, only the high-frequency indicator below 10 is sufficient. - In bull markets, consider additional risks and adjust thresholds (e.g., high-frequency indicator below 15 or 10) [19][21][26]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies turning points in various market conditions but requires adjustments for bull markets to account for strong trends and potential false signals [27][28]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Divergence-Based Turning Points - **Accuracy**: Basic divergence signals have a success rate below 55% but improve to over 65% when combined with wave theory and moving averages [13][16][17]. 2. V-Shaped Reversal Turning Points - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency temperature indicators below 10 successfully identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022, each lasting over a month [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 during a three-quarter-long consolidation phase [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency temperature indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Temperature Indicator - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures price deviation from moving averages to identify extreme overbought or oversold conditions [18][19]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use a moving average (e.g., 60-day or annual) to represent the trend. 2. Shift the moving average left by half its parameter length. 3. Linearly extrapolate the last two points of the shifted moving average. 4. Calculate the deviation (bias) of each price point from the extrapolated moving average. 5. Compute the percentile rank of the deviation over a rolling window to derive the factor value, ranging from 0 to 100 [18][19]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively identifies extreme market conditions but requires different thresholds for bear, range-bound, and bull markets to optimize performance [19][21][26]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Temperature Indicator - **Bear Market**: High-frequency and low-frequency indicators below 10 identified rebounds in January, February, and April 2022 [21]. - **Range-Bound Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 identified rebounds in January and April 2025 [22][25]. - **Bull Market**: High-frequency indicator below 10 or 15 identified five strong buying opportunities in gold futures from 2023 to 2025 [26].

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) price has recently surpassed a key resistance level, reaching a new three-month high of $108,652, despite a decrease in trading volume [1] - XBIT decentralized exchange platform is highlighted as a tool for investors to capture market opportunities, leveraging deep liquidity pools and precise strategy tools [1] Price Dynamics - BTC's recent price action shows a "big bullish candle" pattern, closing above the $108,000 mark, but there are conflicting signals in the technical analysis [1] - Key observations include a price increase with a 12% drop in trading volume, indicating potential exhaustion of upward momentum [1] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, suggesting a quiet resurgence of buying power, while the KDJ indicator indicates a neutral signal, suggesting a critical point for market direction [1][2] XBIT's Trading Tools - XBIT offers innovative tools to enhance trading certainty, including: - Smart grid trading bots that allow users to set buy/sell ranges and automatically adjust positions based on market movements [4][5] - A volume divergence alert system that monitors liquidity across exchanges and warns users of potential momentum decay [5] - A KDJ neutral zone arbitrage model that helps users manage positions based on KDJ signals [5] Security Measures - XBIT emphasizes security with three main protective features: - On-chain settlement mechanisms that execute orders via smart contracts, ensuring funds are stored in user-controlled wallets [7] - Anti-witch attack networks that utilize zero-knowledge proof technology to protect transaction privacy [7] - An insurance fund that allocates 20% of platform fees to a risk reserve for user compensation during extreme market conditions [7] Liquidity Solutions - XBIT addresses liquidity challenges with innovative solutions: - Cross-chain liquidity aggregation that connects to multiple blockchains for optimal price matching [9] - Institutional-grade dark pools for large trades to minimize market impact [9] - Liquidity mining rewards that incentivize users to provide liquidity, with annual returns up to 18% [9] Market Predictions - Analysts predict three potential scenarios for BTC's price movement: - Optimistic: If BTC closes above $108,309, it could target $120,000 [11] - Neutral: Trading within the $103,249 to $108,309 range, suitable for high-low trading strategies [11] - Pessimistic: A drop below $103,249 could signal a double-top formation [11] - XBIT is preparing to launch new products and features to adapt to market conditions, including leveraged ETF products and integration with Bitcoin Layer 2 networks [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refined nickel market shows a pattern of supply surplus with a weak and volatile futures market but rising spot premiums, and it is recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [2][3] - The stainless - steel market is also in a weak and volatile state, with the weakening cost support of nickel - iron raw materials. It is also recommended to wait for short - term operations and maintain a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,740 yuan/ton and closed at 118,570 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.92% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 100,455 lots and an open interest of 83,823 lots [1] - The main contract 2507 continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD began to expand slowly, and it may enter a weak and volatile stage in the short term. There was a top - divergence phenomenon around 123,000 on the 60 - minute line on June 6. The short - term resistance level is 122,000 - 123,000, and the support level of 119,000 has been broken, showing a bottom - divergence structure [2] - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was lowered by 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands decreased. The spot trading of refined nickel was okay overall, and the premiums increased slightly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,241 (- 109.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 (1,986) tons [2] Strategy - The recent spot trading of refined nickel is relatively sluggish, and the supply surplus pattern still exists. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 118,000 - 119,000. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [3] - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,540 yuan/ton and closed at 12,480 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 105,310 lots and an open interest of 186,878 lots [3] - The main contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, with the daily line closing in a negative line. The trading volume of the 08 contract was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The green column area of the daily - line MACD did not expand further, and the short - term support level may be around 12,400. The resistance level is around 13,100 [4] - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market reduced their prices by 100 yuan/ton for shipment compared with the previous trading day, and the market trading volume was average, with no sign of confidence recovery. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation was basically flat compared with the previous trading day, and the seller's quotation was mostly 940 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory including tax). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will run weakly in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,850 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was also 12,850 yuan/ton, with the 304/2B premium ranging from 370 to 670 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 927.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Due to the decline in the price of nickel - iron raw materials, the cost support of stainless - steel nickel - iron continues to weaken. It may continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term to seek strong support below. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. It is recommended to suspend short - term operations to avoid systematic risks, and maintain the idea of selling hedges at high prices in the medium and long term [5] - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]