Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing analysis of gold prices in the context of improving U.S. economic data and the potential implications of the PCE data [1] Economic Context - U.S. economic data continues to show positive trends, which may influence market expectations and gold prices [1] - The focus is on whether the upcoming PCE data will disrupt this positive momentum [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices rebounded slightly from $3320, filling the short position gap at the start of the week, supported by a temporary weakening of the dollar due to investor caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - The optimistic trade atmosphere between the US and Europe, along with easing tensions in US-China and US-Japan relations, has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, leading to a market characterized by oscillation [1] - Current gold prices are at a crossroads of macroeconomic dynamics and technical adjustments, with the Federal Reserve's policy uncertainty prompting a brief return to gold for safety, while global trade optimism limits upward movement [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The weekly chart shows a significant upper shadow of $102, indicating potential bearish trends if the upward shadow continues in July [3] - The price is expected to face resistance at the $3350 level, which is crucial for determining the short-term market direction, with potential downward targets at $3245 and $3120 [3] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions during rebounds, with key resistance at $3350-$3360 and support at $3320-$3310 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - US crude oil futures rose by $0.22 to $65.38 per barrel, while Brent crude increased slightly to $68.66 per barrel, despite previous declines to a three-week low [4] - The market is currently digesting the potential supply increase from Venezuela, which may exert additional pressure on prices if the US allows the country to resume oil exports [4] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $68, with attention on the outcomes of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a mid-term upward trend testing near $78, but the subjective direction appears to be downward [5] - Short-term trends show resistance at $66.70, with expectations of a weak rebound followed by a continued downward movement [5] - The strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds, with resistance at $67.0-$68.0 and support at $63.5-$62.5 [5]

Core Insights - The PCE data has softened, leading to a slight decline in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The softening of PCE data indicates potential changes in consumer spending patterns [1] - A decrease in U.S. Treasury yields may reflect investor sentiment regarding future economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 20.7% [1] Interest Rate Predictions - For the upcoming FOMC meetings, the probabilities for maintaining or adjusting interest rates are as follows: - 3.25%-3.50%: 0.0% probability for all three meetings [4] - 3.50%-3.75%: 0.0% for July, 12.3% for September [4] - 3.75%-4.00%: 0.0% for July, 18.5% for September, 54.8% for October [4] - 4.00%-4.25%: 20.7% for July, 73.3% for September, 30.1% for October [4] - 4.25%-4.50% (current rate): 79.3% for July, 8.2% for September, 2.7% for October [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing bearish trend in gold prices, highlighting the recent drop below previous lows and the potential duration of this trend [1] Group 1 - The PCE data is set to be released tonight, which may impact market sentiment and gold prices [1] - The article suggests that traders can follow technical analysis of mainstream commodities through a live broadcast by the TTPS trading team [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Multiple data releases are expected to impact gold prices, with unemployment claims and GDP likely to be bearish, while PCE data may provide bullish support [1] - Recent trading showed gold prices dropping significantly, breaking key support levels, with a notable decline to 3295 [3] - The current market is characterized by a "Bollinger Band squeeze," indicating potential for a directional breakout [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3310, with a target of 3330-3350 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver is at a critical juncture around 36 USD, with technical indicators showing potential for volatility [6] - Key resistance is identified at 37.291 USD, with a breakthrough potentially leading towards 38 USD [6] - Suggested trading strategy involves buying on dips between 35.90-35.80 USD, with a target of 36.30-36.50 USD [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain uncertain, while the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts adds complexity to the market [4] - A weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations may provide support for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold and silver is closely tied to economic data releases and geopolitical developments [1][4]

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with Trump claiming that military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, although tensions may resurface soon [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's fluctuating statements, leading to volatility in trading [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced fluctuations, with a low of 3312 and a high of 3340, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The current trading strategy suggests maintaining a low position with expectations of a potential breakout above 3355, which could lead to significant upward movement towards 3385 and 3430 [5][6] - The domestic gold price is around 782, with expectations of reaching 795, indicating a bullish trend [6] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a rebound from the support level of 35.2, currently trading around 36.4, with a target of 36.5 for profit-taking [6] - A strategy is suggested to prepare for short positions near 37, following the previous trading pattern [6] Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil showed weak performance, with a support level at 64, indicating limited upward movement unless influenced by market news [7] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone adjustments but is still expected to trend upwards, with potential targets of 3000 and 3200 [8]

Market Overview - Global assets are experiencing a decline, with major U.S. stock indices opening lower [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,117.58, down 0.23%, the Nasdaq is at 19,027.63, down 0.77%, and the S&P 500 is at 5,881.62, down 0.52% [2] - Chinese concept stocks are facing significant losses, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping over 3% [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index is at 3,858.66, down 2.33%, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index is at 7,002.87, down 3.10% [3] - The Wande Chinese Stocks 100 Index is at 2,644.37, down 2.25% [3] - Notable declines include: - WanGuo Data down 8.69% at 22.910 - Tiger Brokers down 8.30% at 7.730 - Thunder down 6.68% at 5.935 - TAL Education down 6.35% at 9.955 - Tencent Music down 5.89% at 16.460 [3] Commodity Market - International crude oil prices have dropped, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 1% [4] - Gold and silver are also experiencing a pullback, with London gold at 3,285.870, down 0.94%, and London silver at 33.012, down 0.87% [6][7] - The cryptocurrency market is seeing widespread declines, with Dogecoin down 6.85% at 0.202140 [8] Economic Data - The U.S. April PCE data shows a year-over-year increase in the PCE price index of 2.1% and a core PCE increase of 2.5%, aligning with expectations [9] - The U.S. April goods trade deficit has significantly narrowed, with imports experiencing a record decline [9] U.S. Government Restructuring - The U.S. State Department plans a major restructuring, aiming to cut thousands of jobs, with nearly 45% of its domestic offices to be closed, consolidated, or streamlined [10] - The restructuring will result in a reduction of 3,448 employees from the current total of approximately 18,780 [10] Corporate Taxation Concerns - Ford's Executive Chairman Bill Ford publicly criticized a recent tax reform bill passed by the U.S. House, warning it could jeopardize production tax credits for Ford factories, threatening operations and jobs [11]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are still betting on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September following the release of PCE data, despite a reversal of earlier gains in short-term interest rate futures [1] Group 1 - Short-term interest rate futures experienced a pullback after the PCE data was published [1] - The market sentiment remains focused on the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]