Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is 20.7% [1] Interest Rate Predictions - For the upcoming FOMC meetings, the probabilities for maintaining or adjusting interest rates are as follows: - 3.25%-3.50%: 0.0% probability for all three meetings [4] - 3.50%-3.75%: 0.0% for July, 12.3% for September [4] - 3.75%-4.00%: 0.0% for July, 18.5% for September, 54.8% for October [4] - 4.00%-4.25%: 20.7% for July, 73.3% for September, 30.1% for October [4] - 4.25%-4.50% (current rate): 79.3% for July, 8.2% for September, 2.7% for October [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing bearish trend in gold prices, highlighting the recent drop below previous lows and the potential duration of this trend [1] Group 1 - The PCE data is set to be released tonight, which may impact market sentiment and gold prices [1] - The article suggests that traders can follow technical analysis of mainstream commodities through a live broadcast by the TTPS trading team [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Multiple data releases are expected to impact gold prices, with unemployment claims and GDP likely to be bearish, while PCE data may provide bullish support [1] - Recent trading showed gold prices dropping significantly, breaking key support levels, with a notable decline to 3295 [3] - The current market is characterized by a "Bollinger Band squeeze," indicating potential for a directional breakout [3] - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around 3310, with a target of 3330-3350 [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver is at a critical juncture around 36 USD, with technical indicators showing potential for volatility [6] - Key resistance is identified at 37.291 USD, with a breakthrough potentially leading towards 38 USD [6] - Suggested trading strategy involves buying on dips between 35.90-35.80 USD, with a target of 36.30-36.50 USD [6] Group 3: Market Influences - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain uncertain, while the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts adds complexity to the market [4] - A weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations may provide support for gold prices [1] - The performance of gold and silver is closely tied to economic data releases and geopolitical developments [1][4]

Market Overview - The geopolitical situation remains uncertain, with Trump claiming that military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, although tensions may resurface soon [2] - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's fluctuating statements, leading to volatility in trading [2] Gold Market Analysis - Gold experienced fluctuations, with a low of 3312 and a high of 3340, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The current trading strategy suggests maintaining a low position with expectations of a potential breakout above 3355, which could lead to significant upward movement towards 3385 and 3430 [5][6] - The domestic gold price is around 782, with expectations of reaching 795, indicating a bullish trend [6] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has shown a rebound from the support level of 35.2, currently trading around 36.4, with a target of 36.5 for profit-taking [6] - A strategy is suggested to prepare for short positions near 37, following the previous trading pattern [6] Oil Market Analysis - International crude oil showed weak performance, with a support level at 64, indicating limited upward movement unless influenced by market news [7] - Domestic fuel oil has undergone adjustments but is still expected to trend upwards, with potential targets of 3000 and 3200 [8]

Market Overview - Global assets are experiencing a decline, with major U.S. stock indices opening lower [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 42,117.58, down 0.23%, the Nasdaq is at 19,027.63, down 0.77%, and the S&P 500 is at 5,881.62, down 0.52% [2] - Chinese concept stocks are facing significant losses, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping over 3% [2] Chinese Stocks Performance - The Wande Chinese Technology Leaders Index is at 3,858.66, down 2.33%, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index is at 7,002.87, down 3.10% [3] - The Wande Chinese Stocks 100 Index is at 2,644.37, down 2.25% [3] - Notable declines include: - WanGuo Data down 8.69% at 22.910 - Tiger Brokers down 8.30% at 7.730 - Thunder down 6.68% at 5.935 - TAL Education down 6.35% at 9.955 - Tencent Music down 5.89% at 16.460 [3] Commodity Market - International crude oil prices have dropped, with WTI and Brent crude both falling over 1% [4] - Gold and silver are also experiencing a pullback, with London gold at 3,285.870, down 0.94%, and London silver at 33.012, down 0.87% [6][7] - The cryptocurrency market is seeing widespread declines, with Dogecoin down 6.85% at 0.202140 [8] Economic Data - The U.S. April PCE data shows a year-over-year increase in the PCE price index of 2.1% and a core PCE increase of 2.5%, aligning with expectations [9] - The U.S. April goods trade deficit has significantly narrowed, with imports experiencing a record decline [9] U.S. Government Restructuring - The U.S. State Department plans a major restructuring, aiming to cut thousands of jobs, with nearly 45% of its domestic offices to be closed, consolidated, or streamlined [10] - The restructuring will result in a reduction of 3,448 employees from the current total of approximately 18,780 [10] Corporate Taxation Concerns - Ford's Executive Chairman Bill Ford publicly criticized a recent tax reform bill passed by the U.S. House, warning it could jeopardize production tax credits for Ford factories, threatening operations and jobs [11]

Core Viewpoint - Traders are still betting on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September following the release of PCE data, despite a reversal of earlier gains in short-term interest rate futures [1] Group 1 - Short-term interest rate futures experienced a pullback after the PCE data was published [1] - The market sentiment remains focused on the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. short-term interest rate futures retraced previous gains following PCE data, with traders continuing to bet on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 1 - The PCE data influenced the movement of short-term interest rate futures, indicating a reaction to economic indicators [1] - Traders are maintaining their positions on the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, reflecting market sentiment [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of gold trading, indicating that fluctuations in the European trading session have weakened [1] - It raises a question about whether the upcoming PCE data in the evening will accelerate market movements and lead to a breakout [1]

美国国债收益率在PCE数据公布后略有上升。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of PCE data on gold prices, indicating that gold is currently experiencing volatility and is at a critical juncture to potentially break out of its trading range [1] - The strength of the US dollar is highlighted as a significant factor influencing non-US currencies, suggesting that market participants should closely monitor specific levels for potential trading opportunities [1]