几周之前曾被热议的中国资产重估逻辑，还继续有效吗？ 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 4 月 2 日特朗普签署所谓 "对等关税" 行政令，宣布 美国对所有贸易伙伴加征 10% 的 "最低基准关 税"， 并对部分贸易伙伴征收更高关税，其中给中国的 "对等关税" 税率达到 34%。此后连续三个交易 日（至 4 月 7 日），全球金融市场暴跌，美国股市蒸发了超过 6 万亿美元。港股则在 4 月 7 日抹平了 开年以来所有涨幅，上证指数创下 8 年来最大单日跌幅。 本周，中美关税争端还在继续升级。4 月 8 日，美国针对中国政府的坚决反制，报复性地宣布对中国 输美商品征收 "对等关税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 中国并不示弱，4 月 9 日反制进一步升级 ——对美加征关税税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。 "这是一个史诗般的经济和市场事件。" 美国著名基金经理比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）在上周表示，本 轮美国关税政策调整的影响，形同 1971 年和金本位制的终结但会带来直接的负面后果，因此他呼吁 投资者不应该试图 "接下落的刀"。 反映市场波动率的芝加哥期权交易所 VIX 指数 ...

Group 1 - Various institutional investors are actively investing in the A-share market, demonstrating confidence in China's economy and capital market amidst global market turbulence and tariff impacts [1][2][3] - The establishment of a "Chinese version of the stabilization fund" by multiple government departments aims to provide robust support for the A-share market [1][5] - Significant inflows into the stock ETF market were recorded, with net inflows reaching 74 billion yuan during a market downturn, indicating strong institutional buying interest [2] Group 2 - Major insurance companies, including China Life and Ping An, have expressed confidence in the long-term value of China's capital market and are increasing their equity asset allocations [3][4] - Prominent private equity firms and wealth management companies are also increasing their investments, reinforcing the belief in the long-term growth potential of Chinese assets [4][7] - A wave of share buybacks has been initiated by numerous listed companies, including major securities firms and well-known corporations, reflecting a collective commitment to support the market [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts emphasize that the current market environment, characterized by external risks, does not alter the long-term positive outlook for China's capital market, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and ongoing policy initiatives [7][8][9] - The resilience of the Chinese economy, bolstered by a large domestic market and continuous innovation, is expected to drive recovery and growth in the capital market [8][9] - The collaborative efforts between government and market participants are seen as a new phase in stabilizing the capital market, enhancing its ability to respond to external challenges [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a strong performance on April 8, with major indices closing in the green, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by significant policy support from government entities [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3145.55 points, up 1.58% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 9424.68 points, up 0.64% - The ChiNext Index closed at 1840.31 points, up 1.83% - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with over 3200 stocks recording gains [1][2]. Sector Performance - Agricultural stocks surged, with companies like Qiule Seed Industry and Hualu Biology hitting the daily limit - Retail stocks continued their upward trend, with Kid King and Guofang Group also reaching the daily limit - State-owned enterprises and technology innovation stocks were active, with companies like COFCO Technology and Sinotrans both hitting the daily limit - The fruit supply chain sector experienced a collective adjustment, with companies like Luxshare Precision and Dongshan Precision hitting the daily limit - The automotive industry chain saw a decline, with companies like Jinbei Automobile and Asia-Pacific Shares collectively hitting the daily limit [4][5]. Policy Support - On April 8, the Central Huijin, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration collectively announced measures to support the capital market, emphasizing their role as a "national team" [7][10]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration optimized policies for insurance funds entering the market, increasing the allocation ratio for equity assets, which could potentially bring in an additional 1.66 trillion yuan in market funds [8][10]. - State-owned asset management platforms like China Chengtong and China Guoxin announced significant purchases of central enterprise and technology innovation stocks, creating a strong market support coalition [9][10]. Market Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent policy actions are crucial for maintaining market liquidity and fostering a positive feedback loop for microeconomic entities [10][11]. - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered attractive, with a focus on core assets, as the market is expected to stabilize despite short-term fluctuations [11][15]. - The government is likely to implement further fiscal policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, with potential measures including accelerated issuance of special bonds and increased subsidies [25][26].

Core Viewpoint - Central financial institutions in China, including Central Huijin and China Chengtong, have announced significant stock purchases, indicating confidence in the Chinese capital market and the value of A-shares [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of April 8, 2025, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index (950180) rose by 2.72%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hongsoft Technology (688088) up 9.11% and Chipsea Technologies (688595) up 8.11% [1] - The Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790) increased by 1.96%, with the latest price at 0.52 yuan [1] Group 2: Institutional Actions - Central Huijin announced further purchases of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to support market stability, emphasizing a positive outlook on the development of the Chinese capital market [1] - China Guoxin stated that its investment arm will increase holdings in central enterprise stocks, technology innovation stocks, and ETFs, with an initial amount of 80 billion yuan [1] Group 3: ETF Performance Metrics - The Sci-Tech AI ETF recorded a turnover rate of 3.06% and a transaction volume of 76.25 million yuan on April 7, 2025, with an average daily transaction volume of 333.2 million yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The latest scale of the Sci-Tech AI ETF reached 2.43 billion yuan, placing it in the top fifth among comparable funds [4] - The ETF's share count reached 4.792 billion, marking a new high since its inception and also ranking in the top fifth among comparable funds [5] Group 4: Fund Inflows and Returns - The Sci-Tech AI ETF experienced continuous net inflows over six days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 145 million yuan, totaling 354 million yuan, averaging 59.04 million yuan in daily net inflows [6] - Since its inception, the ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 15.59%, with a historical holding period of three months showing a 100% probability of profit [6] Group 5: Fee Structure and Tracking Accuracy - The management fee for the Sci-Tech AI ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [7] - As of April 7, 2025, the ETF's tracking error over the past month was 0.010%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [8] Group 6: Top Holdings - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence Index accounted for 70.57% of the index, with companies like Lattice Semiconductor (688008) and Cambricon Technologies (688256) among the top performers [8][10]

今天亚太市场早盘，遭遇"黑色星期一"，日经N225指数触发熔断， 韩国KOSPI指数跌跌超4%，A股沪指跌超一度失守3100点关口。 此外，美股市场期货跌幅继续， 继美股上周跌近10%后，美股股指期货开盘后跌幅迅速扩大，截止发稿，标普、纳指期货分别跌近3%和4%。 VIX期货飙涨34.4%。 美国关税风暴对全球金融市场的冲击还在继续。 一起来看最新的情况。 01 亚太股市遭遇重挫，日股触发熔断！ 日经225指数开盘即现断崖式下跌，盘中一度狂泻近3000点，跌幅逼近9%，创2023年10月以来最低水平；东证金融股指数更惨跌逾12%，金融 板块成为重灾区，截止发稿，日股有所回升。 $$\mathbb{E}\{\mathbb{E}\}\mathbb{E}\{\mathbb{E}\}\mathbb{E}\{\mathbb{E}\}$$ 此外，据日本共同社报道，日本大阪交易所启动"熔断机制"，暂时暂停日经平均指数(225种)期货交易，以应对市场的大幅下跌。该交易所还启动 了"动态熔断机制"，暂时限制10年期日本国债期货主合约6月期货的交易，以遏制价格的快速波动。 韩国股市同样大幅下挫 。截至发稿，韩国Kospi指数和K ...

Group 1 - The Morgan CSI 300 Free Cash Flow ETF has commenced its fundraising period from April 7 to April 18, 2025, allowing investors to participate through online cash subscriptions, offline cash subscriptions, and offline stock subscriptions [1] - The fund aims to closely track the CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index, which selects 50 listed companies with high free cash flow rates from the CSI 300 Index sample, ensuring companies have positive operating cash flow for five consecutive years and rank in the top 80% for earnings quality [3] - The CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index reflects the overall performance of listed companies with strong cash flow generation capabilities within the CSI 300 Index [3] Group 2 - Recent attention on free cash flow ETFs is attributed to their focus on real profitability and financial health, distinguishing them from traditional dividend ETFs by excluding high-debt or financially manipulated companies [4] - The CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index emphasizes large-cap blue-chip stocks, offering lower volatility, higher dividend yields, and stronger dividend stability [4] - Morgan Asset Management has launched a series of dividend-focused funds, including the largest Hong Kong dividend index ETF and others, providing diversified investment solutions across A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Asian markets [4]

4月2日，上海财经大学校长刘元春在江苏扬州的一场公开活动上表示，以DeepSeek事件为标志，中 国科创崛起正在重塑中国资产的估值，中国科创企业正在技术突破、成本控制和商业化应用方面展现独 特优势。在中美科技竞争加剧、全球资本流动格局变化的背景下，中国科创的全面崛起不仅是技术进步 的体现，更是中国叙事逻辑的一次深刻重塑。 刘元春也强调，中国市场结构与市场秩序的治理是中国叙事和中国估值在中期全面持续的一个重要决定因 素，必须上升到新的高度。他还谈道，美国经济是否加速步入衰退期是美国叙事逻辑变化的关键，假如在 4月披露的美国一季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速为负，美国消费者价格指数（CPI）上升突破3%。美联 储很可能在4月下旬或5月份开启新的降息阶段。一旦美国降息，我国货币政策空间将更加充足。 中国资产重估不是短期事件 今年农历新年前后，以DeepSeek事件触发，国际社会出现对于中国发展叙事逻辑的逆转。刘元春表示， DeepSeek在一周之内获得了全世界的热捧，在资本市场只要与DeepSeek相关的股票都快速上升。在这 一轮中国资产的上涨潮里，与新质生产力相关的、战略性新兴产业相关的中国公司股票实现全面引领。但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The revaluation of Chinese assets is driven by technological innovation, macroeconomic policies, industrial environment, and valuation levels, with a particular focus on AI technology as a significant catalyst for change [2][3][4]. Group 1: Drivers of Asset Revaluation - Technological innovation, exemplified by DeepSeek in the AI sector, is a key factor driving the revaluation of Chinese assets, showcasing China's capabilities in manufacturing and technology [2]. - The macroeconomic policy environment is improving, with the government signaling a shift to a "dual easing" cycle, which is expected to stabilize the economy and improve corporate profitability [3]. - Industrial policies are revitalizing market confidence, particularly in the private sector, which is crucial for economic growth and investment [3]. Group 2: Valuation Characteristics - Current asset valuations in China are at historical lows, with broad indices and major industries undervalued compared to international peers, creating an attractive investment opportunity [4]. - The combination of low valuations and improving fundamentals is drawing global investors to reassess the investment value of the Chinese market [4]. Group 3: International Market Context - The global market's adjustments, including a weakening dollar and volatility in U.S. stocks, are enhancing the comparative advantages of Chinese equities [5][6]. - The current economic uncertainty in the U.S. is prompting capital to flow out of American markets, potentially benefiting emerging markets like China [6][7]. Group 4: AI Sector Potential - The AI sector in China is characterized by low-cost advantages, an open-source ecosystem, and ongoing application innovations, indicating significant growth potential [8][9]. - The transition from concept validation to commercial realization in AI is expected to drive performance in the next 1-3 years, marking a shift towards earnings-driven investment [9]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Three categories of industries are identified for potential investment: those driven by policy stimulus, those with cleared supply-side issues, and those with clear demand-side support [10][11][12]. - A phased investment strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors with immediate policy impacts, followed by those with supply-side adjustments, and finally, long-term growth sectors in technology [12].

Core Viewpoint - The technology-driven bull market is the main theme of the current revaluation of Chinese assets, emphasizing the importance of technological breakthroughs [1][16]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market is expected to enter a phase of oscillation and adjustment after the initial stage of the bull market, which is seen as a short-term cooling period [1][35]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is anticipated to lead the revaluation of Chinese assets, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Hang Seng Index in 2025 and 2026 [1][35]. - Investors should focus on high-quality companies with strong fundamentals to achieve growth during the bull market [1][49]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The key variables for the macroeconomic outlook in 2025 are not extreme fluctuations but rather reform and technological innovation [2][17]. - The recovery of the real estate sector and the stabilization of rental yields in major cities indicate a potential stabilization of property prices by 2025 [19][20]. - The rise of AI technology is expected to enhance efficiency across various industries, contributing to a structural shift in the economy [21][30]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective and rebuild valuation frameworks in light of AI advancements, moving away from traditional static metrics [24][28]. - The focus should be on the penetration rate of AI technology, capital expenditure, and the application prospects in various industries [28][29]. - The bull market is characterized by a need to identify the most promising companies within the AI ecosystem, which may yield significant returns [46][48]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Companies in the technology sector, particularly those represented by "ATM" (Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi), are expected to benefit from the AI wave and should be prioritized for investment [3][44]. - The integration of AI into various sectors, including biomedicine, education, and finance, presents new opportunities for growth [46][47]. - The new generation of consumers, particularly those born in the 90s and 00s, will drive rapid growth in emerging consumption sectors [23].

过去一段时间，港股市场这种剧烈的上下起伏已经不是第一次出现。2月底以来，虽然市场多次由短期情绪和资金涌入催化快 速上冲，但始终无法"有效突破"我们早前给出的点位。我们在2月16日与2月24日连续发布《 中国资产的重估？ 》与《 再论中 国资产的重估前景 》两篇专题报告， 测算恒指中枢23,000-24,000点，乐观情形25,000点，建议在这一区间附近观望不必追 高，如果不选择获利可以适度调仓至红利。 回过头来看，这一观点是有效的。实际上，尽管活跃的市场给人一种持续火热的感觉， 但如果投资者是选择从2月底以来加仓 龙头个股或者恒指与恒生科技的话，过去一个月大概率持平甚至是亏损的。 那么，走到这一步，中国资产的重估到哪里了？ 接下来走向如何，该如何配置？有哪些节点需要重点关注？ 一、重估到哪一步了？叙事驱动的极致"结构市"，当前估值相对合理 图表：上周MSCI中国指数下跌1.7%，电信服务与房地产领跌，而公用事业与能源逆势上涨 点击小程序查看报告原文 资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部 过去一周港股市场大幅波动，周初恒指一度逼近我们给出的乐观情形25,000点，随即再度大幅回撤，恒生科技周四周五连续两 ...