. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/6/11 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本公 ...

提醒：北京时间20:15，欧洲央行公布利率决议。 ...

摘要北京时间周四(6月5日)亚欧时段，美元指数上涨，现报98.89，金价目前交投于3375.10美元/盎司， 涨幅0.07%，最高触及3383.91美元/盎司，最低触及3360.88美元/盎司。本交易日需关注欧洲央行利率决 议和美国初请失业金人数变动，市场预计欧洲央行将降息25个基点，中长线而言，偏向支撑金价。 美国供应管理协会(ISM)周三公布的非制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)降至49.9，为2024年6月以来首次跌 破50的荣枯线，标志着占美国经济三分之二的服务业出现萎缩。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货黄金 | 3375.10 | 美元/盎司 | | 黄金t+d | 781.00 | 元/克 | | 纸黄金 | 779.08 | 元/克 | | 沪金主力 | 783.72 | 元/克 | 【基本面解析】 瑞士百达财富管理高级经济学家Nadia Gharbi在一份报告中表示，预计欧洲央行在本周四的会议上将不 会释放有关7月利率行动的明确信号，但风险偏向于释放暂停降息的信号。 德意志银行坚持认为，欧洲央行宽松周期的终端利率应保持在1.50%，但同时指出， ...

Key Points - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book, providing insights into the economic conditions across the U.S. [1] - China's Caixin Services PMI for May will be announced, which is crucial for understanding the service sector's performance [1] - The unemployment rate for Switzerland in May will be adjusted and reported [1] - Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) for April will be released, indicating inflation trends [1] - Challenger's report on U.S. job cuts for May will be published, reflecting employment trends [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy [1] - The U.S. trade balance for April will be reported, providing insights into trade dynamics [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 31 will be released, indicating labor market conditions [1] - ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, likely discussing monetary policy and economic outlook [1] - The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index for May will be published in the U.S., reflecting supply chain conditions [1] - EIA's natural gas inventory report for the week ending May 30 will be released, impacting energy markets [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on economic outlook, providing insights into future monetary policy [1] - Federal Reserve's Harker will discuss economic prospects, which may influence market expectations [1] - Federal Reserve's Schmidt will address banking policies, relevant for financial sector stability [1]

加拿大掉期市场预计7月降息的概率为46%，今年总共可能进一步降息36个基点，低于加拿大利率决议 公布前预期的42个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The market widely expects the Bank of Canada to maintain the interest rate at 2.75% [1] - The Bank of Canada may not provide much forward guidance, with an increased likelihood of a dovish tone due to potential economic damage from trade wars [2] - Attention is focused on the Bank of Canada's views regarding trade wars, the economy, and inflation [3] Group 2 - There is also a focus on the Bank of Canada's perspectives on geopolitical situations, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar exchange rate [4] - The interest rate decision will be announced at 21:45 Beijing time [5]

Group 1 - The article highlights the release of final services PMI data from multiple European and American countries, which is crucial for assessing economic health [1] - The US ADP employment data is set to be published, providing insights into the labor market and potential economic trends [1] - The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact monetary policy and market expectations [1]

Economic Data Releases - Australia's Q1 GDP data will be released, providing insights into the country's economic performance [1] - France's final services PMI for May will be published, indicating the health of the services sector [2] - Germany's final services PMI for May will also be released, contributing to the understanding of the economic landscape [3] - The Eurozone's final services PMI for May will be available, reflecting the overall services sector performance in the region [4] - The UK's final services PMI for May will be announced, offering a glimpse into the British services industry [5] - The US ADP employment figures for May will be disclosed, which are crucial for assessing job market trends [6] - Federal Reserve's Bostic will participate in an event, potentially providing insights into monetary policy [7] - The final services PMI for May from S&P Global in the US will be released, further informing on the services sector [8] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, impacting monetary policy and economic outlook [9] - The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI for May will be published, which is a key indicator of economic activity [10] - The EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending May 30 will be released, affecting energy market dynamics [11] - The Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book on economic conditions, offering qualitative insights into the economy [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly due to recent attacks on Russian military airports by Ukraine, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline of 2% last week, with a trading range of 110 points, indicating a downward trend but with intermittent rebounds, suggesting a need for continuous monitoring of market fluctuations [5] - The market is currently focused on upcoming employment data and manufacturing indices, which could impact gold prices, as well as central bank interest rate decisions from Canada and Europe [3] Group 2 - The analysis of gold's daily chart shows that despite a noticeable high-level pullback at the beginning of the week, gold prices have maintained support at 3240, indicating strong protective measures from moving averages [3] - The short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on resistance levels around 3338 and potential short positions if gold reaches 3310-3315, with a target support level at 3288 [5] - The MACD indicator's position near the zero line suggests a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the current market, indicating uncertainty in price direction [3]

（3）经济数据与政策：美国4月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数同比增长2.1%，低于预期的2.2%，这使得交易员继续押注美联储将在9月下调短期借贷成 本，利率期货显示美联储9月降息概率升至87%。美联储的货币政策预期对黄金影响重大，降息预期升温通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而利多黄金。 此外，美国联邦上诉法院上周四暂时恢复特朗普总统最全面的关税政策，此前美国贸易法院曾裁定其越权并阻止征收关税，关税政策的不确定性也对市场产 生了一定影响。 2、本周重点关注 （1）重要数据：本周将公布一系列重要经济数据，包括美国 5 月 ISM 制造业 PMI、4 月 JOLTs 职位空缺、5 月 ADP 就业人数、5 月 ISM 非制造业 PMI、4 月贸易帐以及最受关注的 5 月非农就业报告等。 （2）央行政策动态：周三加拿大央行和周四欧洲央行将公布利率决议。如果央行维持利率不变或降息，会使得货币市场利率下降，持有黄金的机会成本降 低，对黄金价格形成支撑；若央行选择加息，则会提高持有黄金的机会成本，打压黄金价格。此外，虽然美联储6月15号才开会讨论利率，但市场对其加息 或降息的预期会提前反映在黄金价格波动上。若市场预期美联储 ...