Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]

8月28日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为783.12元/克，涨幅0.20%，沪银主力 报价为9375.00元/千克，涨幅0.54%；国际贵金属期涨跌不一，COMEX黄金报价3449.80元/盎司，跌幅 0.06%，COMEX白银报价39.48美元/盎司，涨幅0.71%。 英伟达财报未公布前，美股处于高度紧张的观望状态，基准股指盘中冲高后遭遇抛售，纳指一度翻绿， 随后买盘涌入转涨但收盘前卖压再现。三大股指均收涨，标普收创新高。盘后英伟达财报显示数据中心 收入逊色，本季指引不够亮眼，股价盘后一度下挫5%。市场避险情绪升温，一定程度上支撑黄金走 势。 【盘面分析】 8月27日，COMEX黄金盘中先跌后涨，报收3451.8美元/盎司，涨幅0.55%。国内SHFE金夜盘震荡上 行，报收784.16元/克，涨幅0.33%。后续来看，今日晚间美国将发布2季度GDP数据，关注实际数据与 预期值的差异，若大幅低于预期，金价或在避险情绪支撑下进一步反弹。 【消息面】 特朗普于当地时间周二表示，他已准备好与美联储理事库克展开法律斗争；他已经考虑了一些"非常好 的人"来接替库克的位置；很快将在美联储理事会中拥有" ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to escalating tensions between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting potential further gains in the short term [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the politicization of the Fed, threatening its independence and credibility in monetary policy [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is facing pressure at the $3401 level, with a potential short-term upward movement followed by a decline [1] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, primarily due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth, indicating a likely downward trend [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [3] - The International Energy Agency's latest report suggests that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [3] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising the surplus expectation to 1.64 million barrels per day [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term rebounds likely [5] - Technical analysis suggests that copper may face resistance at the $4.43 level in the near term [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment [6] - The index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with expectations of new lows in the short term [6] - Resistance is noted at the 42550 level for the index [6]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise slightly as market risk aversion increases due to the escalating conflict between the Federal Reserve and the White House, suggesting a potential short-term upward trend for gold [2] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by Trump has raised concerns about the political influence on the Fed, threatening its independence and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold has formed a minor upward structure on the hourly chart, but faces pressure at the key level of $3401 [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Oil prices showed weak performance with limited rebound, making it difficult to reverse the current downtrend due to OPEC+ production increases and slowing global economic growth [4] - Goldman Sachs predicts a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026 [4] - The International Energy Agency's latest report indicates that global oil supply growth will significantly outpace demand growth in 2025 and 2026, exacerbating market imbalances [4] - The EIA forecasts a global oil supply increase of 2.28 million barrels per day this year, with a relatively small adjustment in demand, raising expectations of a supply surplus to 1.64 million barrels per day [4] - Technical analysis shows that oil has formed a minor upward structure on the daily chart, but the potential for a downward ABC pattern is significant, with short-term pressure at $64 [4] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a series of small declines, indicating a potential downward ABC pattern, with short-term resistance at $4.43 [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candlestick pattern, indicating the start of a medium-term adjustment, with potential new lows expected [6] - Technical analysis suggests that the index is under significant pressure from long-term moving averages, with short-term resistance at 42550 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of Trump's firing of a Federal Reserve governor, which raises questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Following the news, gold prices initially fell but later rose, with COMEX gold futures closing up 0.55% at $3451.80 per ounce [1] - The New York Fed's Williams emphasized the potential for interest rate cuts, contingent on upcoming data, adding uncertainty to the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on September 16-17 [1] Group 2 - Recent weak employment data and dovish comments from Powell suggest that the upcoming PCE data will be crucial in determining the Fed's direction [1] - The pressure on the Federal Reserve from Trump's actions may amplify the impact of inflation data, potentially increasing market volatility and demand for gold as a hedge [1] - If the PCE data leans dovish, gold prices could experience a new wave of upward momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent firing of a Federal Reserve governor by Trump has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices initially fell but later rose, with COMEX gold futures closing up 0.55% at $3,451.80 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) decreased by 0.04%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) dropped by 4.15% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New York Fed President Williams indicated uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts, stating that any decision will depend on upcoming data before the September 16-17 meeting [1] - Recent weak employment data and dovish comments from Powell suggest that the PCE data will be crucial in determining the Fed's direction [1] Group 3: Implications for Gold - The pressure on the Federal Reserve from Trump's actions may amplify the impact of inflation data, potentially increasing market volatility [1] - If legal disputes escalate, market risk aversion could rise, boosting demand for gold as a hedging tool, especially if PCE data is dovish, which may lead to a new wave of gold price increases [1]

huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 28 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 27 日，万得全 A 低开后震荡上行，午后大幅跳水，收跌 1.74%，超 4700 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别 下跌 1.49%、1.73%、1.46%、1.87%。指数期货表现强于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 1.46%、1.70%、1.14%、1.73%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计 算）。 | | | 1.2 后市展望 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with some brands experiencing price increases. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's price rose by 3 yuan per gram, reaching a new high of 1014 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 969 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 45 yuan per gram between the highest and lowest priced stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands on August 27, 2025, show that Lao Miao and Liu Fu both maintain prices at 1010 and 1009 yuan per gram respectively, while the highest price is from Chow Sang Sang at 1014 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum prices also saw a slight increase, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price rising by 1 yuan per gram to 549 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price surged by 11 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands. The recycling price for gold is reported at 778.10 yuan per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang offers the highest at 790.90 yuan per gram [2] - Other notable recycling prices include 783.60 yuan per gram from China Gold and 782.20 yuan per gram from Chow Sang Sang [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - The spot gold price fluctuated, closing at 3393.25 USD per ounce with a rise of 0.81%, but later dropped to 3378.38 USD per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.44% [4] - The increase in gold prices was attributed to market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, which has heightened market risk aversion [4] - Analysts suggest that ongoing pressure from the Trump administration on key economic decision-making institutions is undermining their credibility and weakening the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset [4]

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, reaching a two-week high of $3393.43 following the unexpected dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump, which raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and heightened market risk aversion [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.22%, and the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries steepened, with market expectations for a rate cut in September rising to over 87% [1] Technical Analysis - In the previous trading session, gold fluctuated and found support at $3367.1 before rising to a high of $3393, indicating a bullish trend with a daily close showing a large bullish candle [3] - The daily indicators suggest a bullish outlook, with the 5-day moving average trending upwards and KDJ indicators showing a bullish crossover [3] - However, the hourly chart indicates a short-term bearish trend, with K-line showing consecutive declines and KDJ indicators indicating overbought conditions [3] Trading Recommendations - Suggested to buy gold in the range of $3371-$3374 with a stop loss at $3366 and a take profit target of $3385-$3390 [5] - Suggested to sell gold in the range of $3396-$3399 with a stop loss at $3405 and a take profit target of $3380 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to rising market risk aversion, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, and a weakening dollar, particularly in the context of declining tech stock prices in the U.S. market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold futures and spot prices have rebounded as U.S. tech giants face stock price declines, with spot gold prices nearing $3,350 [1]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices have shown weakness, with significant declines in major tech stocks, including Nvidia, which has seen a nearly 4% drop over two days [1]. - Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Citigroup view market fear and risk aversion as key catalysts for short-term gold price increases [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump is advocating for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, calling for the resignation of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could allow him to influence future monetary policy [2][4]. - The latest FOMC meeting minutes indicate a hawkish stance, with most policymakers believing that a rate cut is premature despite growing concerns about inflation and labor market weakness [2][4]. - Market participants are eagerly awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech for hints regarding potential rate cuts in September [2]. Group 3: Price Predictions and Trends - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong global central bank demand and ETF inflows [5]. - Citigroup has revised its three-month gold price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, citing deteriorating economic growth and inflation outlooks [7]. - JPMorgan forecasts that deteriorating non-farm employment data could catalyze gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by year-end, with a potential rise to $4,000 per ounce early next year [8].