跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 李畅 策略分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com | 一、策略观点：跨年前后或是做多的窗口期 4 | | --- | | 二、本周市场变化 9 | | 风险因素 12 | [Table_Summary] 核心结论：本周市场继续震荡，成交缩量。海外流动性扰动持续对风险 偏好产生影响，日本央行释放出可能再次加息的信号，引发市场担忧套 息交易逆转风险上升。美元指数 11 月以来在 100 附近震荡，市场对美 联储 12 月降息预期的博弈陷入拉锯战。本轮缩量震荡时间偏长，主要 原因或在于，当前市场资金面中，稳定的买入力量更多在于中长期资金 和产业资本，局部板块快速轮动的行情较难驱动居民 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant style shift, moving from a previous one-sided trend to a new paradigm characterized by "balanced value" [1] - The fourth quarter performance verification window is opening, highlighting the performance certainty advantage of undervalued blue-chip sectors, with high dividend yields and valuation safety margins attracting long-term capital [1] - The technology growth sector is not retreating entirely, as specific sub-sectors with technological breakthroughs and domestic substitution logic will continue to present structural opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around the 3900-point mark, showing a U-shaped trend for the week, indicating a clear intention to avoid a pullback [2] - The market is currently in a state of oscillation and consolidation, with significant sector rotation and increasing trading volume, suggesting enhanced capital participation [2] - The performance of various sectors includes notable gains in non-ferrous metals, defense industry, paper packaging, and oil and petrochemicals [4] Group 3 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is at 49.2%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating an improvement in economic conditions [9] - Large enterprises' PMI is at 49.3%, down 0.6 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises show slight increases, with PMIs of 48.9% and 49.1% respectively [9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for November is at 49.5%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, with the construction sector showing a slight increase while the service sector declines [12] Group 4 - The A-share market opened December with a volume increase, showing a U-shaped trend and a return to the 3900-point range, with significant trading activity [19] - The market is driven by a dual engine of "technology + resources," with strong performances in sectors like consumer electronics, semiconductors, and commercial aerospace, while real estate and agriculture sectors face pressure [19] - Key messages from the week include encouragement for Chinese companies in renewable energy sectors to expand internationally and initiatives to enhance digital talent development [19][20] Group 5 - The global capital market shows a "strong internal, weak external" differentiation, with A-shares experiencing high-level oscillation supported by policy and industry hotspots [23] - The market is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern with multiple factors at play, including upcoming U.S. economic data and domestic policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference [24] - The current market environment is characterized by a dual window of policy benefits and liquidity easing, with a long-term upward trend expected despite short-term volatility [24]

12月5日，A股市场放量上涨，上证指数重返3900点，深证成指、创业板指均涨逾1%。整个A股市场超 4300只股票上涨，行业板块普遍上涨，非银金融、有色金属、机械设备等板块领涨市场。市场成交额为 1.74万亿元，已连续16个交易日成交额不足2万亿元。 此外，12月5日为摩尔线程上市首个交易日，当日收涨425.46%，市值为2823亿元，全天最大涨幅超 500%，市值一度超过3200亿元。 黑崎资本首席战略官陈兴文表示，近期A股市场成交量持续低迷，但12月5日午后金融板块（保险、互 金、券商等）的突然拉升释放了多重积极信号，从宏观与微观角度综合分析，这可能是市场底部与跨年 行情启动的重要前兆。 本周，A股市场震荡上涨，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计上涨0.37%、1.26%、1.86%，行业 板块中，有色金属、通信、国防军工行业领涨。资金情绪乐观，12月5日沪深两市主力资金净流入超17 亿元，结束连续4个交易日的净流出。 分析人士认为，后市在政策、资金与基本面的共振下，有望开启跨年行情。跨年行情的启动时点呈现显 著的"弱势行情前置启动"特征，其本质是市场对政策宽松预期与流动性改善的提前定价。 非银金融板块 ...

● 本报记者 吴玉华 从盘面上看，炒股软件、保险、商业航天、光模块、铜产业等板块爆发，摩尔线程、银行、GPU等板块 调整。申万一级行业普遍上涨，非银金融、有色金属、机械设备行业涨幅居前，分别上涨3.50%、 2.84%、2.34%；仅有银行行业下跌0.58%，公用事业行业收平。 领涨的非银金融行业中，中银证券、瑞达期货涨停，中国太保、四川双马涨逾6%，中国平安、兴业证 券涨逾5%，中国人保、中国人寿、新华保险、东方财富等涨逾4%。 此外，12月5日为摩尔线程上市首个交易日，当日收涨425.46%，市值为2823亿元，全天最大涨幅超 500%，市值一度超过3200亿元。 12月5日，在非银金融板块的带动下，A股市场放量走强，截至收盘，上证指数、深证成指、创业板 指、北证50指数分别上涨0.70%、1.08%、1.36%、1.52%，科创50指数收平，上证指数重返3900点。 大小盘股携手上涨，大盘股集中的上证50指数、沪深300指数分别上涨0.93%、0.84%;小微盘股集中的中 证1000指数、中证2000指数、万得微盘股指数分别上涨1.29%、1.87%、1.58%。 市场成交明显放量，当日A股市场成交额为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market in China experienced a significant net inflow of over 4.3 billion yuan on December 4, with a cumulative increase of 10.8 billion yuan over the past three days, indicating a strong interest in broad-based ETFs despite market volatility [2][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - On December 4, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up over 1% [2]. - The stock ETF market saw a total increase of 1.789 billion shares, with a net inflow of 43.15 billion yuan, primarily driven by broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs [5]. - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.56 trillion yuan as of December 4 [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - The net inflow for broad-based ETFs was 33.54 billion yuan, while Hong Kong market ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.2 billion yuan [5]. - The CSI A500 Index ETF led the inflows with 9.21 billion yuan, while the Shanghai market corporate bond index saw the largest outflow of 5.01 billion yuan [6]. - Recent inflows into the Hang Seng Technology Index exceeded 1.8 billion yuan, and the SGE Gold 9999 Index saw inflows of over 1.1 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Top Performing ETFs - The top ETFs by net inflow included the Chinese Internet ETF with 5.33 billion yuan, the CSI A500 ETF with 4.56 billion yuan, and the SSE 50 ETF with 4.37 billion yuan [8]. - Notable inflows were also observed in the STAR Market ETF and the CSI 1000 ETF, with net inflows of 3.89 billion yuan and 2.99 billion yuan, respectively [8]. Group 4: Fund Outflows - The industry-themed ETFs experienced significant outflows, totaling 12.02 billion yuan, with the Bank ETF and Gold Stock ETF each seeing outflows exceeding 3 billion yuan [12][13]. - Other ETFs with notable outflows included the Chemical ETF and the Military Industry Leader ETF, both exceeding 2 billion yuan in outflows [13]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite some industry-themed ETFs experiencing outflows, institutions remain optimistic about structural opportunities in the A-share market, anticipating clearer policy and fundamental expectations in December [15]. - Analysts suggest focusing on growth sectors such as AI, electric new energy, and industrial metals, while also considering potential policy-driven opportunities in sectors like hotels, logistics, and aviation as the year-end approaches [15].

Core Viewpoint - The year-end market dynamics reveal a split among institutional investors, with some adopting a cautious approach to lock in gains while others see market fluctuations as a buying opportunity [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance and Fund Strategies - As of December 3, the average return of 4,686 active equity funds since November has been -2.67%, indicating a significant reduction in performance volatility compared to previous months [3]. - Notably, several high-performing funds with over 50% annual returns have shown reduced monthly volatility, suggesting that fund managers have likely made adjustments to their portfolios [4]. - A significant number of funds, 223, have implemented purchase limits to manage scale and protect existing investors, with some funds limiting daily purchases to as low as 1,000 yuan [5]. Group 2: Investment Outlook and Strategies - Analysts expect that the A-share market will experience a positive trend despite short-term fluctuations, with a potential opening for cross-year investment opportunities [7][8]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations of continued growth driven by AI and other technological advancements [8][9]. - There is a focus on sectors with high economic vitality, such as technology manufacturing and materials, as well as consumer goods that have already priced in pessimistic forecasts [9].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.4%, and ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [6] - Total trading volume across both markets was 1.55 trillion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6] Fund Performance - The three major ETFs from Huabao, tracking the CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices, provided investors with diversified options for bullish positions on China [2][6] - The CSI A100 ETF fund was launched on August 1, 2022, while the CSI A500 ETF from Huabao was launched on December 2, 2024 [2] Institutional Insights - Everbright Securities noted that despite market adjustments, there is no panic, and the current fluctuations are considered normal, with potential for a rebound if favorable news emerges from upcoming significant meetings [2][6] - Wanhe Securities suggested that the market rebound may continue, particularly in the consumer and technology sectors, focusing on integrated circuits and commercial aerospace [2][6] - According to招商证券, the market is likely to break upward after three months of consolidation, indicating a high probability of a year-end rally [2][6] Sector Capital Inflows - The top three sectors for net capital inflows were household appliances (+2.784 billion yuan), machinery (+2.456 billion yuan), and automobiles [6]

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Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the rising trend of high dividend stocks and the importance of cash flow in mitigating risks associated with the technology sector [1] - The "National Nine Articles" and market value management policies encourage listed companies to increase dividend payouts, benefiting medium to large-cap companies with abundant free cash flow [1] - Companies with strong cash flow are likely to exhibit good profit quality and robust risk management capabilities, allowing them to maintain operational stability during market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Free Cash Flow Index include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Wuliangye, Gree Electric Appliances, China Aluminum, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, Xiamen International Trade, Shanghai Electric, and Chint Group, collectively accounting for 54.4% of the index [2] - The cash flow ETF, Jia Shi (159221), closely tracks the National Free Cash Flow Index, creating a "cash cow" portfolio that combines profit quality and dividend potential [2] - Investors can also access opportunities through the cash flow ETF Jia Shi's off-market connection (024574) [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a recovery, with significant inflows into core broad-based ETFs, particularly the A500 ETF (512050), which attracted over 800 million yuan in a single day and over 2.1 billion yuan in the past 10 days [1] - Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on the Chinese stock market from "neutral" to "overweight" in its 2026 emerging market equity strategy report, indicating a higher risk of substantial gains compared to losses, with a projected 19% upside for the MSCI China Index under base case scenarios [1] - Analysts from Industrial Securities highlight that the end of the year is a critical period for market activity, driven by a vacuum in fundamental data, upcoming important meetings, and expectations of policy changes, which could lead to increased liquidity and risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The new generation core broad-based A500 ETF (512050) helps investors allocate to core A-share assets, tracking the CSI A500 Index with a dual strategy of "industry balanced allocation + leading company selection," covering industry leaders while balancing value and growth [2] - The A500 ETF has three core highlights: low fees (total fee rate of 0.2%), high liquidity (average daily trading volume exceeding 5 billion yuan in the past month), and leading scale (over 20 billion yuan), making it an efficient investment choice for capturing A-share valuation opportunities [2] - Investors can consider related products such as the A500 ETF (512050) and the A500 Enhanced ETF (512370) for further investment options [2]