Group 1: Securities Industry Insights - The securities industry underperformed the market in the first half of the year due to valuation increases and policy changes [1] - Ongoing market stabilization measures are expected to boost various business segments, including brokerage, margin financing, and equity derivatives [1] - The introduction of new public fund regulations marks a new era for high-quality development in public funds [1] - The deepening of capital market investment and financing reforms is leading to a recovery in investment banking business [1] - The reliance on investment performance, particularly in leverage and proprietary equity investments by brokerages, remains a key differentiator [1] - The "1+N" regulatory framework and mechanisms to encourage long-term capital inflow are enhancing the inherent stability of the capital market [1] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Recent copper prices have shown an upward trend, but there is market divergence regarding future price movements [2] - The upstream refined copper production remains tight due to limited CAPEX and significant reductions in TC/RC fees [2] - Support for copper prices is provided by China's "steady growth" policies and the "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, with current market prices deemed reasonable [2] - Further upward movement in copper prices may require additional macroeconomic policy support domestically and stabilization in overseas economies [2] - Inflation expectations, interest rate cut anticipations, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index may further support the current strong oscillation in copper prices [2] - Citic Securities maintains a forecast for copper prices to rise to $10,000–$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, while cautioning against potential disruptions from July's "reciprocal tariffs" [2] Group 3: Smart Glasses Supply Chain - The release of Xiaomi's AI glasses, which serve as a portable AI interface with multiple functionalities, highlights the importance of the smart glasses supply chain [3] - The smart glasses are positioned as a significant future product in the AI sector [3]

智利统计局：智利5月铜产量同比增长9.4%至486574吨。 ...

查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 点击注册小程序 本周小结：需求逐步走弱，但铜价因逼仓上涨 （1）铜矿：2025年3月中国铜精矿产量为15.7 万吨，环比+25.4%，同比+6.9%；4月全球铜精矿产量为 196.9万吨，同比+5.6%，1-4月全球铜精矿产量累计同比+2%。（2）废铜：截至2025年6月27日，精废价 差为1965 元/吨，环比6月20日+1045 元/吨。 冶炼：TC现货价在-43美元/吨附近企稳 1）产量：2025年5月SMM中国电解铜产量113.83万吨，环比+1.1%，同比+12.9%。（2）TC：截至2025年 6月27日，TC现货价为-43.56 美元/吨，环比6月20日+0.1 美元/吨，仍处于2007年9月以来的低位。 截至2025年6月27 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" with expectations for overall sector returns to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to improved market sentiment, coupled with increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has positively impacted the non-ferrous metals sector [10][11]. - The anticipated reduction in overseas smelting capacity is gradually materializing, while there are still expectations for reductions in Chinese smelting capacity [3][10]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and demand side, a turning point is awaited [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Following the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market focus has shifted to liquidity and the potential impact of U.S. copper tariffs [2][10]. - The market is currently pricing in an implied tariff of approximately 13% on U.S. copper, with potential for further widening of price differentials if tariffs are implemented [10][11]. Supply and Demand - Overseas smelting reductions are expected to lead the way, with notable reductions already seen in facilities such as Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines [10]. - In China, the current TC spot price is at -44.8 USD/dry ton, indicating a tight copper supply situation, further exacerbated by a reduction in guidance from the Kamoa copper mine [10][11]. Price Outlook - Copper prices are expected to rise in the lead-up to the implementation of U.S. tariffs, with the market currently reflecting a 13% tariff expectation [10]. - If monetary and fiscal policies support economic stability, a turning point for copper prices may be on the horizon, despite current uncertainties in the U.S. economy [10][11]. - Demand in China is expected to weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but this is not anticipated to significantly impact copper prices due to low inventory levels [10].

我国是电解铜冶炼大国，占全球产能的50%以上，但铜矿产出不足，需大量进口铜精矿。2025年1-4月 中国进口铜精矿累计1003.2万吨，同比增长7.4%，当前铜精矿对外依存度高达90%。因此海外矿山的扰 动对于未来供应减少的影响边际增强。 2025年上半年铜价走势一波三折，在供应减产预期持续升温的背景下，铜价重心整体偏强。后市来看， 市场料将交易减产的预期和需求韧性支撑，宏观边际修复背景下，铜价走势或延续偏强运行。 2025年上半年国内电解铜现货价格振幅较宽，整体呈现"N"字型走势，截至2025年6月23日，国内1#电 解铜现货均价为78345元／吨，较去年年末上涨4575元／吨，涨幅为6.20%。上半年均价78647.55元／ 吨，同比上涨3.43%。 分析上半年铜价波动的主要影响因素，供应扰动边际增强的影响不容忽视。铜矿是不可再生资源，随着 矿山老龄化，全球铜矿增量逐年下降，铜精矿产量增幅远不能满足增长需求。 往后看，后期铜精矿紧张趋势或有所加剧，叠加冶炼厂可能陆续进入年内计划检修环节，故下半年产量 水平可能略低于上半年。预计2025年下半年国内电解铜产量为703万吨，较上半年减少26万吨，环比降 幅3. ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of preserving and promoting Chinese traditional culture, particularly through the study and protection of bronze artifacts [1][3] - The Baoji Bronze Museum is actively utilizing new technologies and materials for the restoration of cultural relics, improving efficiency and quality in the preservation process [2] - The museum has collaborated with universities and research institutes to restore significant bronze artifacts, enhancing their cultural value and historical understanding [2] Group 2 - The museum plans to enhance visitor engagement through digital and immersive technologies, allowing visitors to interact with the exhibits and learn about the history of bronze casting [3] - Over 150,000 students have visited the museum this year, indicating a strong interest in cultural education among younger generations [4] - The museum aims to develop specialized courses for different age groups, promoting a deeper understanding of Chinese civilization and its historical context [4]

铜周报 美元走弱，铜价向上突破 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡上行，特朗普拟在鲍威尔任期结束前提前安 排影子主席，以推进其快速降息的设想，而美国一季度GDP 环比终值转负及5月个人消费环比支出下降令市场看空美 元情绪升温，降息预期的抬升及疲软的美元走势不断提振 铜价。基本面来看，全球精矿精确程度超预期，LME显性 库存持续下滑，LME0-3的BACK结构十分拥挤，国内社会库 存偏低，全球精铜紧平衡结构加剧既为铜价中期构建坚实 底部，也为铜价上行提供了良好的支撑。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the financial market, including the performance of major indices and sector trends [4][12]. - It emphasizes the impact of government policies on various industries, particularly in the context of digital assets and environmental initiatives [6][8]. Financial Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.23, down 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.34% to 10378.55 [4]. - The report notes a total trading volume of 15,411 billion, with 3,227 stocks rising and 1,662 falling, indicating a slight contraction in market activity [12]. Industry Developments - Hong Kong has introduced a new digital asset policy, accelerating the ecosystem for stablecoin applications, with related stocks including Jingbeifang (002987) and Sifang Jingchuang (300468) [8]. - The offshore engineering equipment industry is being catalyzed by new policies, with companies like Hailanxin (300065) and Yaxing Maolian (601890) positioned to benefit [8]. - Platinum prices have surged to a 10-year high, significantly outpacing gold, with related stocks such as Gebijia (835438) and Guiyan Platinum (600459) highlighted [8]. Company Focus - Wenkang New Energy (688779) is focusing on the development of solid-state battery materials, achieving cumulative shipments of over 100 kilograms for some products [10]. - Zhongji Renjian (301508) has established a testing facility for new energy batteries, capable of meeting the demands for solid-state battery testing [10]. - Changliang Technology (300348) is actively researching digital solutions related to stablecoins [10]. Market Review and Outlook - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a slight contraction, with a notable performance in industrial metals and technology sectors, while banking and oil sectors are facing declines [12][13]. - The report suggests that the market is showing resilience, with strong support levels for the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a lower probability of significant downturns in the short term [12]. - There is a strong interest in technology sectors such as chips and lithium batteries, suggesting a continued aggressive investment approach in these areas [13].

铜行业专家会 20250627 摘要 全球铜矿供应紧张，头部矿企二季度产量下降，预计 2025 年铜矿增量 仅为 20 万至 30 万吨，远低于此前预期，主要因埃克森美孚、第一量子 及嘉能可等矿山产量下滑，卡莫尔矿甚至可能减产，加剧矿石争夺。 2025 年下半年，海外冶炼厂对铜矿需求将显著增加，自由港印尼冶炼 厂复产、印度阿达尼冶炼厂重新投料，加剧矿石争夺，海外精炼铜产量 预计不会减少，矿石供应紧张局面难以改变。 2025 年中国冶炼厂 TC 长单谈判结果为 0 美元/吨，利润压力大，但硫 酸价格坚挺和废铜制阳极的补充将支撑产量，预计下半年月均产量略低 于 110 万吨，大幅主动减产可能性较低。 2025 年 4 月中国铜表观消费量达 140 余万吨，5、6 月回落至 130 万 吨出头，系季节性淡季及需求前置所致，全年需求增速预计 3%-4%， 下半年光伏负增长或抵消部分增长。 2025 年下半年，中国铜库存大幅累积可能性小，全年需求增速预计 3%-4%，市场对库存积压担忧有限，铜价对消费回落的反应主要体现在 现货升贴水和近端月差收缩上。 Q&A 2025 年全球铜矿供应紧张的现状如何？ 2025 年上半年 ...

232 条款落地前，美国已从非美地区转移约 40 万吨铜，预计未来一到 两个月或增加 20 万吨，导致非美市场供应紧张。该条款落地后铜价可 能回调，但幅度预计不大，或提供买入机会，LME 铜价第一目标位为 11,000 美元/吨，国内铜价为 81,000-82,000 元/吨。 机构通过跟踪 17 家主要铜矿企业（占全球供应 55%）及引入 Tapir 铜 矿发运数据，将全年铜矿增速调整至 0.6%，增量约 13 万吨。同时，考 虑到关税和高利率的影响，消费增速也调整为 0.6%，全年铜平衡表仍 显示紧缺格局。 铜在有色金属板块中基本面最强劲，矿端供应受限，废铜进口因 CL 价 差下降，电铜因 232 条款现货供应紧张。商品投资者倾向于增配铜，对 冲或配置其他板块，长期基金也高度关注铜市场。 当前市场环境下，铜价整体呈现易涨难跌的趋势，得益于其强劲的基本 面提供的长期趋势支撑。自 4 月 2 日以来的反弹中，铜价在各类商品中 表现突出，较早触底反弹，并具备相互矛盾的配合因素，支撑其继续上 行。 Q&A 当前铜市场的主要驱动因素是什么，以及对 LME 和国内库存有何影响？ 当前铜市场的主要驱动因素是美国 232 ...