Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have seen a significant increase, driven by uncertain global trade prospects and a shift towards safe-haven investments [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 22, international gold prices rose over 1%, closing at $3443.7 per ounce, following a previous day's increase that brought prices above $3400 per ounce [1]. - The price of gold jewelry in China has also increased, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao seeing price rises of 17 to 19 yuan per gram compared to July 21 [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold purchases, with a reported increase of 621.7 tons in demand from 2022 to 2024, which is a major factor driving gold prices up [4][5]. - Emerging markets are still in a low allocation phase for gold, with many central banks holding less than 10% of their foreign reserves in gold, indicating potential for further increases in gold holdings [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that gold has entered a new long-term bull market, supported by ongoing economic uncertainties and trade tensions [6]. - The rise in gold prices is seen as a reflection of a bear market in credit systems, with gold's value expected to continue rising if trust in global economic systems is not restored [6].

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The political risks in the US have pushed down the US dollar index and boosted the prices of gold and silver. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly supported, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. The report suggests investors maintain a bullish mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The long - term bull market of gold is supported by the hedging and reserve diversification needs from the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms, economic weakness, and central bank rate - cut expectations. However, the high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in the third quarter should be monitored [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump's government's pressure on Fed Chair Powell and a congressman's criminal charge against Powell have pushed down the US dollar index and caused London gold to rebound to $3390 per ounce. The anti - involution expectation has driven up the price of silver with strong industrial attributes. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted, and it is expected to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before the next upward breakthrough. Investors are advised to hold a bullish view and trade with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values in July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened gold's hedging and allocation needs, Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. The report expects London gold to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish view, and bearish - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US as the prospect of a trade agreement with Washington fades. Some EU countries are evaluating the use of a comprehensive anti - coercion mechanism [17]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggests a review of the Fed, and the Fed responds to the White House's criticism of the renovation cost of its headquarters [17]. - Guangdong and Anhui in China will regulate the new - energy vehicle industry to promote healthy competition [17].

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3358.42 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3358.42 per ounce, while the lowest was $3344.72 per ounce, showing volatility within the trading range [1] Group 2 - Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed negotiations with Russia to promote a ceasefire and address related issues, despite recent large-scale attacks between the two nations [2] - Russia conducted significant airstrikes on Ukraine, resulting in casualties and damage to infrastructure, while claiming to have intercepted 40 Ukrainian drones [2] Group 3 - Current gold price trends indicate a potential risk of a downturn to $3000 or $2600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the May moving average [3] - If the price falls below the May moving average, it could lead to a wider range of fluctuations, with a possibility of further declines to around $2500 if the upward trend line is breached [3] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests multiple rate cuts, which may reduce the likelihood of significant price drops below $3000, presenting opportunities for bullish positions [3]

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3358.42 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3358.42 per ounce, while the lowest was $3344.72 per ounce, showing volatility within a narrow range [1] - Analysts suggest that if gold prices break below the May moving average support, there could be a risk of a decline towards $3000 or even $2600 [2] Group 2 - There is a potential for a bearish trend if gold prices fall below the trend support line connecting the 2016 high of $1375 to the 2020 high of $2075, which could lead to prices dropping to around $2500 or lower [3] - Despite the potential for a decline, the outlook remains optimistic due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and next year, suggesting that the $3000 level may still present a buying opportunity for new highs [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]

Summary of Conference Call on Precious Metals Market Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, and their investment dynamics in the current economic environment [1][14]. Key Points and Arguments Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have risen over 30% this year, reaching new highs, which aligns with the optimistic outlook from major institutions at the end of last year [1]. - Historical comparisons are made to past gold price movements, highlighting the unpredictability of market reactions after reaching new highs [2][3]. - The average price center of gold has been increasing over time, making it difficult to envision a significant drop to levels like $1,500 or $1,000 [4]. Economic Scenarios Impacting Gold - Three potential scenarios for the U.S. economy are discussed: 1. A hard landing for the U.S. economy, leading to a prolonged bull market for gold due to aggressive monetary easing [5][6]. 2. A soft landing where the economy does not enter a recession, which could still support gold prices [7]. 3. A scenario where the economy performs well but inflation spikes, potentially leading to a significant correction in gold prices [8][9]. - Current macroeconomic data suggests that the first two scenarios are more likely than the third, which would be unfavorable for gold [9]. Geopolitical and Macro Factors - Geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases have been significant drivers of gold prices, particularly in the last two years [10][29]. - The relationship between gold and the U.S. dollar, as well as real interest rates, remains crucial for understanding gold price movements [11][12]. Silver Market Insights - Silver's price movements are often influenced by industrial demand and can act as a supplementary asset in the precious metals market [14]. - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to its industrial properties and the overall bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [14]. Investment Trends - The current investment environment shows a significant tilt towards precious metals, with substantial inflows into gold ETFs and related products [16]. - The volatility in the market is noted, with historical volatility levels being relatively high, complicating trading strategies [17]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term trend for precious metals, particularly gold, is viewed positively, with expectations that prices will not revert to previous lower ranges [19]. - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical uncertainties are seen as supportive factors for gold prices [19]. Risks and Considerations - Short-term risks include potential liquidity issues and the impact of trade tariffs on gold prices, which could lead to temporary corrections [24][25]. - The correlation between gold and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is noted, with both assets being viewed as alternatives to traditional fiat currencies [22][23]. Additional Important Content - The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to consider both macroeconomic narratives and real-time market data when making investment decisions in precious metals [13]. - The potential for significant market adjustments due to external shocks, such as geopolitical events or economic downturns, is highlighted as a critical factor for investors to monitor [24][37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the impact of U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, which have led to increased market uncertainty and a rise in gold prices as a safe-haven asset [1][2] - Trump signed an executive order extending the delay of "reciprocal tariffs" from July 9 to August 1, affecting goods from at least 14 countries, with tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff increases is causing concerns about rising supply chain costs in the U.S., potentially leading to "stagflation," where economic growth slows while prices continue to rise [2] Group 2 - As of June 30, China's gold reserves increased to 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons), marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The World Gold Council's survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect to continue increasing their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [4] - The recent U.S. tax and spending bill, known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," is expected to increase U.S. debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [10][11] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to market speculation about potential rate cuts later in the year, with expectations for two cuts by the end of 2025 [11][12] - The ongoing uncertainty in the U.S. economic environment, including the impact of tariffs and fiscal expansion, is complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [13][14] - Central banks' continued accumulation of gold is seen as a significant support for gold prices, especially in the context of a weakening U.S. dollar due to fiscal policies [14]

Group 1 - The gold market has shown significant activity entering 2025, with London and Shanghai gold indices rising by 26.75% and 25.82% respectively since the beginning of the year [2] - In July, gold prices experienced increased volatility, with spot gold dropping below $3,300 per ounce on July 9, reflecting a daily decline of over 1% due to multiple factors including new tariffs announced by Trump and a strong rebound in the dollar index [2][3] - The dual effects of the trade war have created uncertainty in the market, leading to a decrease in risk appetite and providing some support for gold prices despite the overall bearish sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to three main factors: the impact of the trade war, the strengthening dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, and the restrained purchasing behavior of central banks [5][6] - Central banks globally have shown a decrease in gold purchasing activity, with a net purchase of 20 tons in May, and China's gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.9 million ounces [5][6] - Despite the current reduction in central bank purchases, a long-term perspective suggests that central banks may increase their gold holdings, with 95% of surveyed central banks indicating plans to continue or increase gold purchases in the next 12 months [8] Group 3 - The ongoing U.S. trade tensions and rising debt levels are expected to drive central banks towards diversifying their reserves away from the dollar and increasing gold purchases, potentially leading to significant price increases for gold [9][10] - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3,400 per ounce in the next three months, with a potential range of $3,100 to $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter [10] - The shift in gold's role from a decorative asset to a financial asset is evident, with investment demand surging and jewelry demand declining, indicating a structural change in the gold market [11] Group 4 - Future growth in gold investment is anticipated through enhanced investor education, a comprehensive product system, and improved professional services in the gold investment sector [12] - The current gold bull market is driven by a combination of "dollar credit cracks" and the rise of Eastern powers, suggesting that the market has not yet reached its peak [12]

Core Insights - The ongoing trade war is introducing new variables that could potentially act as a catalyst for a bull market in gold [1] - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to provide insights into market trends [1] Group 1 - The trade war is seen as a significant factor influencing gold prices and market dynamics [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of order flow analysis in understanding market signals for gold [1]

Market Overview - A-shares exhibited a "strong in Shenzhen, weak in Shanghai" characteristic last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.40% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% [2] - The banking sector index reached a new high, indicating a shift of funds from overvalued sectors to policy-benefiting areas [2] - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry was 1.30%, with 81% of sectors showing positive returns, particularly steel, building materials, and banking, which rose by 5.06%, 3.96%, and 3.77% respectively [2][13] Fund Issuance - A total of 20 funds were issued last week, including 11 equity funds, 5 mixed funds, 3 bond funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF), with a total issuance of 5.328 billion units [4][10] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index increased by 0.71% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index rising by 1.60% and the mixed equity fund index increasing by 1.25% [3][9] Global Asset Review - International equity markets showed slight divergence, with U.S. stocks continuing to rise, driven by Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, while European markets displayed weakness due to concerns over economic recovery [5] - Commodity markets experienced significant differentiation, with oil prices influenced by U.S. economic data and international risk factors, while metals like copper, aluminum, gold, and silver recorded gains [5] Domestic Bond Market Review - The bond market remained stable, with the China Bond Composite Index rising by 0.15% and the convertible bond index performing well with a gain of 1.21% [14]