商务部网站10月23日消息，商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸磋商有关问题答记者问。 答：经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于10月24日至27日率团赴马来西亚 与美方举行经贸磋商。双方将按照今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就中美经贸关系中的重要问题 进行磋商。 有记者问：近日，何立峰副总理与美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔进行视频通话，双方同意尽快 举行新一轮中美经贸磋商，请问商务部是否有进一步消息？ ...

商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸磋商有关问题答记者问。 有记者问：近日，何立峰副总理与美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔进行视频通话，双方同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商，请问商务部是否 有进一步消息？ 答：经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于10月24日至27日率团赴马来西亚与美方举行经贸磋商。双方将按照今年以来 两国元首历次通话重要共识，就中美经贸关系中的重要问题进行磋商。 ...

Domestic Policy News - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of women's development at the Global Women's Summit, highlighting women's roles as creators and transmitters of civilization [9] - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, focused on reducing logistics costs and promoting green trade during a recent meeting, aiming to enhance the modern logistics system [10][11] - The Ministry of Finance announced a limit of 500 billion yuan for local government debt to support the resolution of existing debts and promote effective investment [21] International Policy News - The IMF projected a 3.2% growth for the global economy in 2025, while noting signs of a significant slowdown in the US economy [16][20] - The recent IMF and World Bank meetings highlighted concerns over rising trade tensions and their potential impact on global economic stability [19] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market saw a slight decline, with the ChiNext and CSI 500 indices dropping over 5%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.34% [22] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the Corporate Governance Code to enhance the governance standards of listed companies, effective January 1, 2026 [23][24] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 69.79 billion yuan in the open market, maintaining liquidity above 1.4% [40] - The Ministry of Finance's announcement to allocate 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits aims to support local fiscal stability and effective investment [42] Commodity Market Analysis - The prices of non-ferrous metals declined, while precious metals saw a rebound; the overall commodity market showed mixed trends post-holiday [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued guidelines to support energy-saving and carbon reduction investments in key industries [11] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index weakened to 98.56, while the Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.13, reflecting a 0.29% weekly increase [4] - The central bank emphasized the market's decisive role in exchange rate formation, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US [4]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com | | 表2：10月21日黑色系期货持仓情况（单位：手、%） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 前 20 多头 | 前 20 空头 | 多空 | 偏离度 | | | 持仓 | 持仓 | 持仓变化 | 持仓变化 | 对比 | | | RB2601 | 1,175,046 | 1,246,557 | -2,203 | -16,676 | 14,473 | 1.20% | | ...

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 10 月 21 日，万得全 A 放量上涨，收涨 1.62%，超 4600 支个股上涨；沪深 300、 上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.53%、1.09%、1.64%、1.45%，中 小盘股表现更优。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 1.2 后市展望： 消息面上，周末 18 日国务院副总理何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips, considering selling put options below $10,000 or gradually building virtual inventory. For aluminum, keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold on dips in the long - term. For zinc, suggest waiting and watching or considering shorting LME zinc, gradually taking profits on long - short spreads and looking for far - month reverse spreads, and paying attention to the 12 - 02 long - short spread. For nickel, suggest waiting and watching due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainties. For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak with short - term macro uncertainties and some price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies. For lead, expect prices to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 and consider long - short spreads. For tin, wait and watch in the short - term and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, expect prices to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom based on seasonal marginal costs in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, it shows a strong supply - demand pattern in the short - term, and the elasticity of demand is the key variable in the long - term [1][2][4][8][10][12][13][14] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market is influenced by tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be no higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for point - pricing has risen. Copper cable and aluminum cable's operations have diverged. Maintain a buying - on - dips strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production of photovoltaic components has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots and rods, but post - holiday inventory reduction is significant. The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthening, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain. The short - term fundamentals are okay [1] Zinc - The price fluctuates this week. The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic zinc ore will be tighter from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, while overseas ore production increased more than expected in Q2. The smelting in October has slightly recovered. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory fluctuates, and the LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level. The demand is weak, and the premium is stable. Both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore end, and the policy has price - supporting motivation. The short - term fundamentals are weak [3][4] Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production in October has slightly increased. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. The inventory is at a high level [8] Lead - The price fluctuates slightly at a high level. The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recycled lead production is expected to increase by 2 - 3 tons in October. The battery production rate has increased, but the finished - product inventory is high, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 50. The LME registered warehouse receipts have decreased by 100,000 tons. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,000 - 17,300 next week [9][10] Tin - The price fluctuates. The ore processing fee is at a low level. The supply has marginally recovered after the Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas imports from Wa State are expected to recover in October, and Indonesia's exports have resumed. The demand for solder has slightly improved during the peak season. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased, and the LME inventory is at a low - level [12] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continue to resume production, while the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly during the dry season. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13] Lithium Carbonate - The price fluctuates strongly. The ore end continues to hold prices, and the spot is tight. The consumption and inventory reduction of lithium salts exceed expectations. The supply - demand is strong in the short - term, with an expected inventory reduction of 8,000 - 10,000 tons in October. The elasticity of demand is the key in the long - term [14]

2025年10月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动不明，关注棕油下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面偏弱 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：关注印度食糖和乙醇份额变化 | 7 | | 棉花：延续反弹势头 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 棕榈油：产地驱动不明，关注棕油下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,294 | -0.26% | 9,270 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is still dominated by the progress of tariff negotiations. The impact of this tariff conflict is not expected to be higher than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. There is still room for negotiation, and attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations with South Korea. For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended. Keep an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but the export window may open. In the face of increasing macro uncertainties, it is recommended to wait and see or consider shorting LME zinc. For spreads, pay attention to the positive spread opportunities between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak. There is short - term macro uncertainty, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and international lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,000 - 17,300. Positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. - For tin, the short - term domestic fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom based on the seasonal marginal cost [14]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot price of Shanghai copper remained stable, the spread between scrap and refined copper increased by 554, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1530, and the import profit decreased by 246.01 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff negotiations. The smelting reduction is higher than expected, and there is medium - level inventory accumulation this week. The downstream's psychological price for pricing has increased. The copper cable's operation is different from that of the aluminum cable. Maintain a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 20, the domestic alumina price decreased by 11, and the LME inventory decreased by 4100 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The operating capacity is flat. The demand for photovoltaic modules has stabilized. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during the festival, and the post - festival de - stocking is significant. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and long - term holding on dips is recommended [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 20, the LME C - 3M increased by 93, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic TC decreases, and the imported TC increases. The domestic mine is tightening, and the overseas mine has an unexpected increase. The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand is average. The export window has opened [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150, the LME inventory decreased by 48, and the LME C - 3M decreased by 3 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing both at home and abroad. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian mining sector and increasing short - term macro uncertainties, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, 430 cold - rolled, and scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mill's production in October increases slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel - iron and chrome - iron remain stable. The inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak [9]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the spot premium increased by 15, the LME inventory decreased by 3100, and the LME C - 3M remained unchanged [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply may increase by 2 - 30,000 tons in October. The demand is expected to weaken. The inventory is at the historical average level. It is expected that the lead price will oscillate narrowly next week, and positive spread opportunities can be considered [11]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the tin position decreased by 1300, the LME C - 3M increased by 30, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is marginally repaired. The demand is slightly warmer during the peak season. The short - term domestic fundamentals show weak supply and demand. In the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. In the long term, buy on dips near the cost line [13]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 135, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 811 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply will decrease in the dry season. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. In the long term, the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 14 - 20, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 650, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 19 [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The raw material side is firm, and the lithium salt consumption and de - stocking exceed expectations. In the short term, supply and demand are both strong, and the de - stocking trend is maintained. In the long term, the elasticity of the demand side is the key variable for pattern reversal [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is expected to shift to high - level oscillations after short - term adjustments, with attention on subsequent policy signals. The bank sector showed relative strength last week, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices led the decline. Some option implied volatilities are still slightly high [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, major indices first rose and then fell, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices leading the decline, dropping over 5%. The banking and coal sectors were relatively strong, rising over 4%, while the electronics sector was weak, falling 7%. Market focus was on Sino - US economic and trade relations, and Powell's remarks strengthened expectations of the Fed's loose policy [1] 3.2 Option Market - In the option market last week, the implied volatility (IV) of various financial options fluctuated significantly, with most IVs rising. The IVs of the STAR 50 options (IV = 41%) and ChiNext Index options (IV = 35%) remained high, and it's risky to buy options to chase the rise. The IVs of 50 and 300 options are in the 17% - 20% range, and those of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 options are around 24% - 26%. The PCR of most financial options is in the 75% - 100% range, down from last week [2] 3.3 Strategy Outlook - The market may maintain high - level oscillations, and some option IVs are still slightly high. It's advisable to hold indices with reasonable valuations like CSI 300 and CSI A500. For the STAR 50 Index with a significant correction and high static valuation, if holding the spot, consider selling out - of - the - money call options with high volatility for hedging. If there are substantial spot gains, consider taking profits on the spot and keeping a small number of long - dated call options. For the CSI 1000 - 2603 stock index futures with a high discount, continue to hold the covered call strategy [3] 3.4 Data Analysis of Different Options - **50ETF Options**: From September 30 to October 10, 2025, the closing price was 3.11, down 0.06%, with an IV of 19.34% and a PCR of 7646% [4] - **CSI 300 Options**: The closing prices of CSI 300 ETFs (Shanghai and Shenzhen) and the CSI 300 Index declined, with IVs in the 18% - 19% range and different PCR values [4] - **CSI 500 Options**: The closing prices of CSI 500 ETFs (Shanghai and Shenzhen) declined, with IVs around 22% - 25% and varying PCRs [4] - **CSI 1000 Options**: The closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 7185.48, down 4.62%, with an IV of 26.02% and a PCR of 8937% [4] - **ChiNext ETF Options**: The closing price was 2.92, down 5.82%, with an IV of 32.43% and a PCR of 8703% [4] - **STAR 50 ETF Options**: The closing prices of STAR 50 ETFs (Shanghai and Shenzhen) declined, with high IVs around 32% - 42% and different PCRs [4] - **SZSE 100 ETF Options**: The closing price was 3.39, down 4.34%, with an IV of 24.55% and a PCR of 9875% [4]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The Chinese economy is showing steady growth and continues to play a major role as a driver of global economic growth, despite facing challenges from geopolitical tensions and technological changes [7][8]. - China's GDP for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a third-quarter growth rate of 4.8%, indicating resilience amid external pressures and internal transitions [13]. - The recent CPI data shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in October, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, reflecting low but improving price levels [6][14]. Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Finance will continue to advance the new local government debt limit for 2026 to support key projects, with an increase of 1,000 billion yuan compared to the previous year [8][9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has revised the Corporate Governance Code for listed companies, effective January 1, 2026, focusing on enhancing the supervision of directors and senior management, and improving incentive mechanisms [9][10]. - The revisions aim to strengthen regulatory constraints on key stakeholders in listed companies, transitioning governance from mere compliance to effective performance enhancement [10][11]. Group 3: International Relations - Recent communications between Chinese and U.S. officials indicate a mutual desire to resolve trade differences through dialogue, which could positively impact bilateral economic relations and market sentiment [11][12].