姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空博弈加剧，煤焦震荡运行 核心观点 焦炭：7 月 7 日，焦炭主力合约震荡下跌，录得 0.94%的跌幅，尾盘报收 于 1422.5 元/吨。近期市场逻辑再次由基本面博弈转向预期博弈。7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提到要整治"内卷式竞争"，并引导落后 产能有序退出。目前，国内焦煤属于供应过剩品种，焦炭属于产能过剩品 种，均有被该政策影响的可能，不过焦化行业近几年刚完成产能升级，淘 汰 4.3 米及以下焦炉，因此本轮政策对焦炭直接影响可能相对有限 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the issue of "involution" in various industries, particularly in the automotive sector, where excessive competition leads to low profit margins despite high production and sales volumes [1][11][30]. Group 1: Involution in Industries - The automotive industry's profit margin in Q1 2024 was only 3.9%, contrasting sharply with the industry's vibrant public image and record production and sales [1]. - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a decline in profitability due to chaotic price wars, which are a manifestation of "involution" [1][15]. - Other sectors such as photovoltaic, lithium batteries, and express delivery are also suffering from similar "involution" issues, leading to widespread concern [1][11]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - "Involution" is characterized by competition that does not lead to growth, often resulting in inefficiencies and resource wastage [2][5]. - Factors contributing to "involution" include local government policies that encourage unhealthy competition, supply-demand imbalances, and inadequate legal frameworks [6][22]. - The phenomenon is exacerbated by companies engaging in price wars to maintain market share, even at the cost of profitability [5][20]. Group 3: Impact of Involution - Excessive competition leads to resource wastage and hinders innovation, as companies focus on survival rather than development [3][4]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in LED lighting and other industries, faces significant challenges due to low-price competition, which discourages investment in research and development [3][4]. - The automotive industry's low profit margins also negatively impact upstream suppliers, such as steel manufacturers, creating a ripple effect throughout the supply chain [16]. Group 4: Government and Industry Response - The central government has recognized the urgency of addressing "involution" and has called for comprehensive measures to regulate competition and promote healthy market practices [11][12]. - Various government departments are implementing policies to combat "involution," including stricter regulations on government procurement and industry standards [12][13]. - Industry associations are advocating for self-regulation and the establishment of fair competition practices to mitigate the effects of "involution" [14][30]. Group 5: Future Directions - Companies are encouraged to innovate and shift from "stock competition" to "incremental creation" to escape the cycle of "involution" [20][21]. - The government is focusing on optimizing industrial layouts and preventing the expansion of outdated capacities to foster a healthier competitive environment [26][27]. - Strengthening intellectual property protections and ensuring fair competition are essential steps to combat the adverse effects of "involution" [29][30].

■谢若琳 一边是"容量竞赛"，充电宝越做越"大"；另一边是"价格战"，企业的利润一点点被侵蚀。这种"内卷 式"竞争使得企业不得不寻求低价外包，以便压缩成本。可以说，这种竞争模式违背了经济运行基本规 律，也是促进市场公平竞争、激发创新活力、提高发展效率的大敌。 去年年底召开的中央经济工作会议指出，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为。今年7月1 日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规 治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。 不仅是充电宝行业，近期多家光伏、汽车行业上市公司也发声"反内卷"。毫无疑问，"内卷式"竞争会造 成"劣币驱逐良币"，使得企业陷入无序、恶性竞争的循环之中，忽视技术创新和产业升级，严重阻碍行 业发展。在笔者看来，未来可以从三个层面着手，推动各行各业"反内卷"。 政策层面，应进一步强化法律与信用约束，严惩低价倾销行为，避免单一行业重复建设和产能过剩，推 动落后产能有序退出市场。行业层面，应达成协作共赢的良性竞争生态，避免低价无序竞争。企业层 面，要从"价格战"转向价值创造，走技术差异化路线，以供应链协同的方 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift away from chaotic price wars, with companies like BYD and Tesla taking steps to stabilize pricing and improve profitability [2][4]. Industry Overview - In the first five months of the year, China's automotive production and sales reached 12.826 million and 12.748 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.7% and 10.9% [2]. - The industry has been characterized by disordered price wars, which have occurred in four rounds over the past three years, impacting profitability and long-term innovation [4]. Company Actions - BYD has halted its "limited-time fixed price" policy and introduced a new purchasing policy [2]. - Tesla China has raised the price of the Model 3 Long Range All-Wheel Drive version by 10,000 yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The effectiveness of price cuts to stimulate sales is diminishing, as evidenced by a leading automaker achieving monthly sales of over 300,000 units in the first half of the year [4]. - Regulatory bodies are taking action against disordered competition, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers advocating for fair competition and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizing the negative impacts of price wars on product quality and economic development [4].

Group 1 - The core issue of "involutionary competition" is characterized by excessive price competition among companies, leading to a decline in overall efficiency and quality of products and services [2][3] - The revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law, effective from October 15, 2025, introduces new regulations to curb "involutionary competition," particularly targeting platform operators who force merchants to sell below cost [1][5][9] - The law aims to shift the competitive model from "price wars" to "value wars," encouraging platforms to focus on service upgrades, technological innovation, and ecological optimization [1][6][8] Group 2 - Various industries, including e-commerce and automotive, have begun to respond to the central government's call to address "involutionary competition," with initiatives to resist price wars and promote industry self-discipline [3][4] - The e-commerce sector has seen significant changes, such as the modification of the "refund only" policy, allowing merchants more autonomy in handling refunds, which reflects a move away from aggressive price competition [3][4] - The automotive industry has also taken a stand against "price wars," with associations and regulatory bodies advocating for a halt to such practices, emphasizing that there are no winners in price wars [3][4] Group 3 - The new law establishes a fair competition review system and mandates that platform operators must not compel merchants to sell below cost, thereby maintaining market order [5][7] - The law emphasizes the responsibility of platform operators to manage competition within their ecosystems, ensuring that they do not engage in practices that lead to market chaos [8][9] - The introduction of penalties for platforms that enforce below-cost pricing aims to deter such practices and promote a healthier market environment [9][10] Group 4 - Challenges in implementing the new regulations include the difficulty in defining "below cost" and the potential for platforms to circumvent rules through indirect means [10][11] - Industry associations are encouraged to participate in governance by creating actionable industry standards and promoting transparency in competitive practices [11][12] - The distinction between legitimate price competition and "involutionary competition" is crucial, with regulatory bodies needing to refine enforcement standards to effectively combat unfair practices [11][12]

近年来，在全球绿色产业竞赛中，中国制造凭借新技术、新产品脱颖而出。尤其以新能源汽车、锂 电池、光伏产品为代表的"新三样"叫响全球。 但与此同时，"内卷式"竞争逐渐成为舆论焦点，新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏以及风电、储能等领域 这一问题均受到诟病。 《求是》杂志在7月1日刊文《深刻认识和综合整治"内卷式"竞争》，对"内卷式"竞争发出严厉警 告，文章认为，价格战造成社会资源的极大浪费，不可持续的债务可能危及长期增长。 文章在分析内卷表现时指出，一些地方政府为招引企业、培育产业，人为制造政策洼地，违规实施 税费、补贴、用地等不公平非普惠的优惠政策，导致无序竞争，破坏公平竞争秩序。 文章在分析"内卷式"竞争是怎么形成的时指出，由于政府缺位越位等行为时有发生，很大程度上影 响公平竞争市场环境的形成。有的地方政绩考核机制不完善，导致政绩观、发展观错位，为了追求短期 经济增长而搞地方保护、市场分割、恶性比拼招商引资政策等，妨碍资源要素高效流动。此外，由于破 产重整制度不完善，加上有的地方政府行政力量干预，导致一些本该淘汰的落后和过剩产能不能及时退 出，部分企业"活不好、死不了"，影响了产业重组和资源利用效率的提高。 文章指出， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Short - term copper prices are expected to be strong. The core drivers are the ongoing "232" investigation in the US and unresolved LME warehouse receipt issues, which provide strong support for copper prices. Before the "232" investigation is concluded, the tight copper supply pattern in non - US regions is difficult to reverse. The reference price range for the main contract is 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The market is in a state of slight surplus due to high - capacity operation. The reference price range for the main contract is 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. - Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely at high levels in the short term. Although macro factors and low inventory support the price, consumption in the off - season restricts its upward space. The reference price range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to show weak oscillations. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight in the short term, and the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season. The reference price range for the main contract is 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices rebounded in the short term driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts and a weak US dollar. However, the fundamentals have not fundamentally improved. In the medium - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. The reference price range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to adjust within a range in the short term. Although macro policies boost market sentiment, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the cost support for refined nickel has weakened. The reference price range for the main contract is 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term under macro support. The fundamentals still face pressure, with high production, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction. The reference price range for the main contract is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to slow supply - side recovery. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on inventory and import data is recommended [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term. The market is in a state of contradiction between sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure is obvious, and the price is restricted from rising. It is necessary to observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton and pay attention to changes in macro expectations [17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.98% to 80,990 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.18% to 2,403 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 356.71 yuan/ton to - 1,128 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; in May, electrolytic copper imports were 0.2531 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.23%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 19.11% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.69% day - on - day [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.14% to 20,810 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 50 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19%; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22%. - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.86% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 2.29% day - on - day [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0, a month - on - month decrease of 100%; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.0261 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.38%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory increased by 6.74% week - on - week [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.04% to 22,290 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss improved by 262.82 yuan/ton to - 911 yuan/ton. - The 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 0.5851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%; in May, refined zinc imports were 0.0267 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.36%. - China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 3.60% week - on - week, and LME inventory decreased by 1.28% day - on - day [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.49% to 122,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,500 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 1 dollar/ton to - 194 dollars/ton; the futures import profit and loss improved by 142 yuan/ton to - 2,419 yuan/ton [10]. Supply and Inventory - In June, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%; refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.90%. - SHFE inventory decreased by 1.51% week - on - week, and LME inventory increased by 0.11% day - on - day [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40% to 12,700 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference decreased by 23.08% to 200 yuan/ton. - The 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.7912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production remained unchanged at 0.36 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.28% week - on - week, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% day - on - day [12]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.75% to 268,500 yuan/ton; SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 138.42% to - 48.99 dollars/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.39%; SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. - SHEF inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and social inventory increased by 2.84% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 0.57% to 61,650 yuan/ton; the 2507 - 2508 month - to - month spread increased by 160 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. - The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price increased by 1.12% to 632 dollars/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.34%; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 57,630 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.74%. - In May, lithium carbonate imports were 21,146 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.37%; lithium carbonate exports were 287 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60.95%. - Lithium carbonate total inventory increased by 2.27% month - on - month in June [17].

Market Overview - Chinese markets showed mixed trends with military and tech sectors declining, while some industries rose due to "anti-involution" measures[3] - European markets closed higher, influenced by political events in the UK, while US tech stocks rebounded, pushing the S&P 500 to a new high[3] Commodity and Forex - Oil prices rose by 3% following the US-Vietnam trade agreement, with New York crude oil reaching $67.45 per barrel[28] - Copper prices surpassed $10,000, marking a high since March, while gold prices slightly increased to $3,307.7 per ounce[28] Fixed Income - Global bond markets declined due to UK fiscal concerns, with the US 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.28%[31] - Asian bond markets remained stable, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[31] A-Share Market - A-shares experienced slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3,454 points and the Shenzhen Component down 0.61%[15] - The military sector continued to retreat, while steel and photovoltaic stocks surged due to production limits[15] Key Corporate Developments - Vipshop (VIPS US) projected a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year for Q2 2025, with a focus on its outlet business[9] - Tesla's global quarterly sales fell by 13% year-on-year, while Xiaomi's car exports are not expected until 2027[6] Regional Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.62%, driven by strong performances in the gaming and materials sectors, while tech stocks faced declines[11] - The S&P Mexico IPC Index increased by 0.92%, with all sectors showing gains, particularly industrials[9]

在当下中国经济新旧动能转换的关键时期，产业格局正经历深刻变革，新产业蓬勃兴起，传统产业加速 升级。然而，"内卷式"竞争这一顽疾却在部分行业悄然滋生。部分光伏、储能等领域企业为争夺市场份 额，不惜低价倾销，扰乱市场秩序。 多位受访的业内人士对中国证券报记者表示，"内卷式"竞争的深层次原因主要是技术创新不足、专利保 护缺失、市场信号不清等。面对这一困境，国家发改委、国家市场监管总局等多部门密集出台整治举 措，力求斩断"内卷"枷锁。与此同时，业内头部企业纷纷探索破局之道，以模式创新、技术革新及强化 专利保护为利刃，在激烈竞争中开辟差异化发展路径，引领行业从"价格内卷"向"价值创造"转型。 以模式创新走差异化之路 在市场供求关系变化的背景下，光伏、储能行业的上市公司逐渐从"供给侧创新"向"需求侧创新"转变， 挖掘贴近市场需求的发展新模式。 "未来靠单独生产组件来'卷'产品，已经不能满足客户的需求，未来光伏产品要从过去的'单一性'向'系 统性'转变，以模式创新实现差异化发展。"天合光能战略、产品与市场负责人张映斌在接受中国证券报 记者采访时表示，随着不同细分场景需求的日渐多元，为客户提供综合解决方案将是光伏行业破除"内 ...