Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate downward. The new - season corn supply is abundant, trade merchants have low inventory - holding willingness, and the mid - term outlook remains weak despite a technical rebound of the November contract [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to oscillate. The price is affected by concerns over US soybean export demand and domestic pre - holiday stocking. Short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil trades in a narrow range, and domestic oils stop falling. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. As the National Day holiday approaches, the demand peak is ending. The supply pressures the price, but the expectation of eliminating excess capacity provides some support. Light - position participation is recommended [1]. - Pigs are expected to oscillate. Pig supply is normal with some regional increases, and holiday demand has limited boosting effects. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [2]. Group 3: Summary of Market Information - In August 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 32.9%, and that of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed is 14.3% [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the price limit ranges and trading margin levels of various futures contracts around the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays [3]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin standards and price limit ranges of some futures contracts during the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, and some contracts will return to pre - adjustment levels after the holiday [4]. Group 4: Summary of Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts, including those of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [6][7][11][14][17][19][23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the apple industry, the current inventory level is low, providing bottom - price support. New - season high - quality apples have high prices, affecting the sales of inventory apples. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [4] - For the红枣 industry, the 2024 production season had large output and high inventory but poor quality. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with inventory pressure still present. If the subsequent assessment of yield and quality is lower than expected, the upward trend of红枣 prices may continue, and the demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking also needs attention [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract yesterday was 8288 yuan/ton, a change of - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.04% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP01 - 688, a change of + 3 from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP01 + 1312, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - In the Shandong production area, some Red Generals are in the later stage, with small - truck customers preferring low - priced Red Generals. The sales of old stored Fuji in Shandong Qixia and Penglai have slowed down. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, different varieties of apples have different price ranges. In Liaoning Wafangdian, the prices of different varieties of early - maturing apples are also given. The late - maturing Fuji is gradually being de - bagged, and attention should be paid to its quality and the price trend of pre - harvested Fuji [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed slightly lower yesterday. The spot - end prices in production areas are differentiated, with high - quality goods having a premium. The double - festival stocking in sales areas is progressing as needed. The current basis shows short - term support. Attention should be paid to the situation after the late - maturing Fuji is de - bagged and the inventory reduction progress of stored apples. The picking and bag - removing work of late Fuji is sporadic, and rainfall in the west may delay the large - scale bag - removing time. New - season apples in Shandong have a large price range for Red Generals, and the prices of pre - harvested Fuji are higher than last year. The sales of stored apples in Shandong have slowed down significantly [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The current inventory level is low, and the price has bottom support. The high price of high - quality new - season apples affects the sales of stored apples, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [4] Red Dates Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 10780 yuan/ton, a change of + 45 yuan/ton or + 0.42% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ01 - 1280, a change of - 45 from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the Aksu area, the mainstream mu - yield is 700 - 800 kg, and the jujubes are in the sugar - increasing period. In the Kashgar area, a small number of jujubes have started to wrinkle. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks of red dates have arrived, and the prices are stable. Different grades of red dates have different price ranges [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price closed higher yesterday. The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei in the spot market remained the same as before. The replenishment of merchants in sales areas is carried out as needed, and the double - festival stocking has not started significantly. The current basis has further narrowed. Attention should be paid to the impact of production - area weather on supply, the release of consumption - end stocking momentum, and the realization of futures long - term expectations. The 2024 production season of red dates had large output and high inventory but poor quality. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with inventory pressure still present. The new - season jujube trees may have over - exhaustion problems, and the expected output reduction is strong [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The jujubes in the Xinjiang main production area are in the sugar - increasing stage. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall in the main production area on the quality of new - season jujubes. If the subsequent dynamic assessment of yield and quality is lower than expected, the upward trend of red date prices may continue. The demand for Mid - Autumn and National Day holiday stocking also needs attention [8]

农产品日报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米 | 周二，玉米近月合约继续减仓下行，1 月合约持仓增加，资金由 11 月向 1 月转移。 | 震荡下行 | | | 阿根廷下调农产品出口关税，农产品板块承压下行，油粕领跌、玉米跟跌，玉米 | | | | 价格区间随之下移。近期玉米加权合约增仓下行，新粮上市的丰收压力继续笼罩 | | | | 市场。周末黑龙江深加工玉米厂家玉米收购价格略显下滑，反映出市场对新季玉 | | | | 米价格的担忧情绪，出价厂家较上周有所增多，新粮上市量也将有所增加。受前 | | | | 期持续降雨影响，周末山东深受前期持续降雨影响，山加工企业门前到货量明显 | | | | 减少，玉米收割进度放缓，加上企业库存维持低位，周末部分企业玉米价格出现 | | | | 反弹。销区市场玉米价格稳定运行。港口提货速度一般，新粮持续上市，但往西 | | | | 南运输不畅，主要粮源是新疆及东北地区，部分饲料厂使用小麦较多，玉米现货 | | | | 较少。技术上，玉米 11 月合约下探新低，近月合约贴水现货， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - **Soybean Oil**: The intraday soybean oil futures price dropped significantly due to Argentina's decision to cancel export taxes on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil before October 31. With sufficient domestic supply and the fermentation of negative news, the price has a technical breakdown. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the near term. The Y2601 contract is recommended for temporary observation, with support at 7950 - 8000 yuan/ton and resistance at 8330 - 8350 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed imports may reduce Canadian rapeseed purchases. Russian/Dubai rapeseed oil and Australian rapeseed imports can partially compensate. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It is recommended to go long with a light position, with support at 9655 - 9698 and resistance at 10300 - 10333 [3]. - **Palm Oil**: Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives brings cost - side negatives. Combined with phased sales pressure, the oil and oilseed sector has a need for a bearish adjustment. Although Malaysian palm oil production in September 1 - 20 decreased, exports increased, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel. It is expected to have a bearish adjustment, with support at 8756 - 8800 and resistance at 9570 - 9590 [4]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: Due to Argentina's cancellation of export taxes and potential delays in biofuel rules, with high domestic inventories and negative news, the prices are expected to be weak in the near term. It is recommended to exit long positions in the main contracts [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: With the expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production, the price of rapeseed at the origin is under pressure. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed meal may have a de - stocking expectation. It is expected to have a bearish adjustment, with support at 2300 - 2365 and resistance at 2552 - 2572 [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The external market has both positive and negative factors, and the domestic market is in a game between low - channel inventory procurement enthusiasm and seasonal pressure. The 11 - contract is expected to continue to find the bottom. Options strategies such as selling wide - straddle combinations or out - of - the - money call options are recommended [7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: With the new domestic soybeans gradually coming onto the market and Argentina's export tax cancellation, the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions, with resistance at 3950 - 4000 yuan/ton and support at 3800 - 3830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Peanut**: With an expected increase in production and a decrease in planting costs, there is seasonal supply pressure. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production, and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking has boosted demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [9]. - **Live Pig**: The futures price is in a process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to wait for capacity reduction to be confirmed and then consider buying at low prices. Cautious investors can hold long - short spreads, and it is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading [10]. - **Egg**: The futures price has fallen below historical lows. It is not recommended to chase short positions. Cautious investors can wait and see, while aggressive investors can consider buying the 2511 contract at low prices, with a reference range of 3000 - 3200 points [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 1. Market Judgment - Various varieties in the feed, livestock, and oil sectors are analyzed, including their market logic (supply - demand), support and resistance levels, market trends, and reference strategies. For example, the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate bearishly, and it is recommended to hold short positions [13]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - Cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage strategies for different sectors are provided, including reference strategies and target levels. For example, for the 01 - contract soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bearish operation is recommended [15]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - Spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of different varieties in each sector are presented [16]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oil and Oilseed - **Daily Data**: Import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods are provided, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17]. - **Weekly Data**: Inventory and operating rates of various oil and oilseed products are given, such as soybean port inventory, soybean meal factory inventory, etc. [19]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: Import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are presented [19]. - **Weekly Data**: Consumption, inventory, operating rates, and other data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are provided [20]. 3. Livestock - **Daily Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and other data of live pigs and eggs in different regions are given [21][22]. - **Weekly Data**: Key weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, costs, profits, inventory, and sales, are provided [23][25]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs)**: Charts show the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related prices such as piglet prices and chicken fry prices [28][29]. - **Oil and Oilseed**: - **Palm Oil**: Charts display Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import profits, and domestic inventory and trading volume [37][38]. - **Soybean Oil**: Charts show US soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil factory operating rates, and inventory [45][46]. - **Peanut**: Charts present peanut arrival and shipment volumes, processing profits, and inventory [54][57]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: Charts show corn futures and spot prices, inventory, import volume, and processing profits [60][64]. - **Corn Starch**: Charts display corn starch futures and spot prices, operating rates, and inventory [67][68]. - **Rapeseed**: Charts show rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, inventory, and basis [70][74]. - **Soybean Meal**: Charts present US soybean growth indicators, domestic inventory, basis, and spreads [77][89]. Fourth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Options Situation - Charts show the historical volatility of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [92][93]. Fifth Part: Feed, Livestock, and Oil Warehouse Receipt Situation - Charts display the warehouse receipt situations of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil, as well as the futures warehouse receipt volume and open interest of corn, live pigs, and eggs [95][96].

| | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月24日 | | | | 十六按 | Z0019938 | | 田 | | | | | | | | | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | 8620 | 8620 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2601 | 8366 | 8328 | 38 | 0.46% | | 基差 | Y2601 | 254 | 292 | -38 | -13.01% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏1月 | 01+220 | 01+210 | 10 | ﺗ | | 仓单 | | 25644 | 25644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | 9月22日 | 9月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 | 9270 | 9300 | -30 | -0.32% | | 期价 | P2601 | 9360 | 9316 | 44 | 0.47% ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall supply of new soybeans this year is expected to be good, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The market's concern about the tight supply of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is likely to ease. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom around the National Day. The fundamentals of live pigs are weak, and the futures price is bearish. The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and the far - month contracts in the first half of next year can be considered for long positions [2][4][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans. The new soybean supply is expected to be good. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has rebounded, and the price of imported soybeans is weak. The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point [2] Soybeans & Doupo - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or the export volume reaches $7 billion. The previous export tax rates were 26% and 24.5% respectively. The import volume is worthy of continuous attention. The import of Argentine doupo may impact the current cost system. The short - term market is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the continuous contract [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. As long as the Brazilian soybean production in the 25/26 season is normal, the subsequent production will be connected. In October, attention should be paid to the actual sales and export of Argentine soybeans, and the export volume of douyou and doupo is likely to increase. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be marginally loose. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The supply of US soybeans is marginally loose, which will drag down the US douyou market. The final policy of US douyou for biodiesel will be announced in October, so the US douyou market is likely to be weaker than the Malaysian palm oil market in the short term [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The domestic vegetable oil and meal sector fell today. The zero - tariff measure of Argentina on grains and finished products still has a negative impact. Caiyou is still in the inventory reduction stage. Due to the time required for Australian rapeseed to arrive at the port, coastal oil mills may face shutdown in October. Caiyou is expected to be relatively stronger than other oils. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and caipo is low, and the demand for caipo is suppressed. The demand for aquatic feed will decline seasonally, and the demand is expected to be mediocre. The Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest period, and its export is lower than the annual average for five consecutive weeks due to the lack of demand from the Chinese market. The overall short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures rebounded slightly today. The weather in the main domestic corn - producing areas this year is mostly good, and the new - season corn production is relatively optimistic. However, as the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has continued to fall and has not stopped falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The futures contracts of live pigs all fell to new lows, and funds increased short positions. The spot price is still weak, and the average selling price has reached a new low. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork procurement this week, but the volume is still limited. The overall supply pressure in the second half of the year is large, and the fundamentals are weak. There is no inflection point in the number of fertile sows yet. The futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and funds have reduced positions by more than 20,000 lots. The spot price is stable and weak, and the spot quotes in many places have been lowered. Since the peak season in September, the rebound of the spot price reached a phased high last Wednesday. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the driving force for the spot price to rise significantly is insufficient. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry still needs to deeply reduce production capacity. Although the elimination speed has accelerated since August, there is still a long way to go. The number of chick replenishment in July and August was at a low level, and the pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in the fourth quarter of this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, long positions can be considered, and for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - selling funds [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to decline in a volatile manner. New grain harvest pressure, price drops in Heilongjiang, and slow harvest in Shandong due to rain contribute to the bearish outlook. The 11 - month contract hit a new low, and the medium - term weak expectation remains unchanged [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to move sideways. Weak demand, advancing US soybean harvest, and Argentina's tariff cancellation on grain exports affect the market. Domestic two - meal prices fluctuated, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Oils are expected to move sideways. BMD palm oil ended a two - day decline due to strong surrounding markets and positive export data. Domestic oils are divided, with rapeseed oil being strong and soybean and palm oils being weak. Short - term participation is advised [1]. - Eggs are expected to move sideways. Futures prices declined, and spot prices were mostly stable. Supply continues to pressure egg prices, and the boost from peak - season demand is limited. Light - position participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply and market sentiment changes [1]. - Pigs are expected to move sideways. Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices stabilized with partial rebounds. Supply is abundant, and short - term rebounds are limited. Attention should be paid to the support from demand and policies as temperatures drop [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - Malaysia's palm oil export data from different institutions shows mixed results. SGS data indicates a 16.1% decrease in exports from September 1 - 20 compared to the previous month, while Amspec shows an 8.3% increase. Production from September 1 - 20 decreased by 7.89% compared to the previous month [3]. - The national pig - feed ratio this week is 5.12, a 1.54% decline. Pig farmers are expected to have a loss of - 106.13 yuan per head. Supply increased this week, and demand was limited. Next week, the decline in pig prices may slow, but losses are expected to increase [3]. - On September 22, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased. The average prices of pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens in the national agricultural product wholesale market also rose compared to last Friday [3]. - On September 22, Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybeans, its derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until exports reach $7 billion to increase foreign exchange supply [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract spreads and contract basis are presented for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, oil, egg, and pig, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided in the text [5][13]

板块低位运行，等待新的驱动 农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13610元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨，幅度-0.80%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15146元/吨，较前一日变动-52元/吨，现货基差CF01+1536，较前一日变动+58；3128B棉全国均价15224元/吨， 较前一日变动-59元/吨，现货基差CF01+1614，较前一日变动+51。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，9月12日至9月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.68吨，均为陆 地棉，84.2%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求；累计分级检验12.10万吨，89.1%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。根据美 国商业部数据显示，2025年7月美国的服装及服装配饰零售额(季调)为269.08亿美元，同比增加6.44%（去年同期向 下调整后为252.79亿美元），环比增加1.43%（上月向上调整后为265.29亿美元）。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏弱震荡。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil has no upward or downward drivers, and the inventory pressure needs to be released [2][4]. - For soybean oil, Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans, leading to a weak and volatile trend in US soybeans [2][4]. - Due to the US soybean's lower - than - expected good - to - excellent rate, soybean meal may rebound [2][13]. - Affected by the sentiment in the soybean market, soybean No.1 is oscillating at a low level [2][13]. - Attention should be paid to the listing of new corn [2][16]. - Monitor the impact of typhoon "Huajiaisha" on sugarcane areas [2][21]. - The pressure of new cotton listing is weighing on the futures price [2][26]. - The peak season for eggs is coming to an end [2][32]. - It is the stage of concentrated release of contradictions in the pig market before the festival [2][34]. - Peanut prices have declined [2][39]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Fundamental Tracking - Palm oil's daytime closing price was 9,360 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and the night - time closing price was 9,152 yuan/ton with a 2.22% - 2.32% decrease. Its trading volume was 561,707 lots, an increase of 7,050 lots, and the open interest was 403,883 lots, a decrease of 7,931 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 90 yuan/ton [5]. - Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 8,366 yuan/ton with a 0.46% increase, and the night - time closing price was 8,172 yuan/ton. Its trading volume was 290,066 lots, a decrease of 41,585 lots, and the open interest was 569,350 lots, a decrease of 2,076 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,710 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 344 yuan/ton [5]. Macro and Industry News - From September 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 6.57% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 7.89% month - on - month [6]. - Malaysia's palm oil product exports from September 1 - 20, 2025, showed different trends according to different institutions' data. ITS data indicated an increase compared to the same period last month, AmSpec showed an 8.3% increase, while SGS predicted a 16.1% decrease [7][8][9]. - As of September 21, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation of 62%, and the harvest rate was 9%, lower than the expected 12% [9]. - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the total export reaches 7 billion US dollars [10]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [12]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 Fundamental Tracking - DCE soybean No.1 2511's daytime closing price was 3,912 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, and the night - time closing price was 3,884 yuan/ton with a 0.69% decrease. DCE soybean meal 2601's daytime closing price was 3,034 yuan/ton with a 1.00% increase, and the night - time closing price was 2,983 yuan/ton with a 1.55% decrease [13]. Macro and Industry News - On September 22, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting a six - week low due to insufficient Chinese purchases and Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on grains [13][15]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0 [15]. Corn Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of C2511 was 2,147 yuan/ton with a 1.11% decrease, and the night - time closing price was 2,151 yuan/ton with a 0.19% increase. The daytime closing price of C2601 was 2,136 yuan/ton with a 1.16% decrease, and the night - time closing price was 2,137 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [16]. Macro and Industry News - The northern corn collection price at ports decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the price in Guangdong Shekou remained flat. The purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China has declined [17]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of corn is 0 [20]. Sugar Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price was 15.85 cents/pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33 cents/pound. The mainstream spot price was 5,850 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,452 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9 yuan/ton [21]. Macro and Industry News - Pay attention to the impact of typhoon "Huajiaisha" on sugarcane production areas. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year, but its exports in August and July decreased by 5% year - on - year. Conab has lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [21]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [24]. Cotton Fundamental Tracking - The daytime closing price of CF2601 was 13,610 yuan/ton with a 0.80% decrease, and the night - time closing price was 13,575 yuan/ton with a 0.26% - 0.05% decrease. The daytime closing price of CY2511 was 19,675 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [26]. Macro and Industry News - The spot trading of cotton was sluggish, and the purchase price of seed cotton was slightly weak. The sentiment in the cotton yarn market has weakened, and the sales of cotton grey cloth have partially declined [27]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [29]. Eggs Fundamental Tracking - The price of eggs 2510 was 2,982 yuan/500 kg, a 1.84% decrease, and the price of eggs 2601 was 3,366 yuan/500 kg, a 1.67% decrease [32]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [32]. Pigs Fundamental Tracking - The Henan spot price was 12,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The futures prices of pigs 2511, 2601, and 2603 all decreased year - on - year [35]. Market Logic - Group farms have significantly reduced supply, but the pig weight has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The probability of concentrated pressure release in the spot market before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline [37]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of pigs is - 1 [36]. Peanuts Fundamental Tracking - The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 8,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton. The trading volume and open interest of peanut futures decreased [39]. Spot Market Focus - In most peanut - producing areas, the supply has slightly increased due to improved weather, but the remaining spring peanuts are limited. The harvest of wheat - stubble peanuts has been postponed due to rain [40]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [42].

农产品早报 2025-09-23 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一美豆继续下跌，阿根廷宣布暂时取消出口税，利空国际豆系价格。周一国内豆粕现货基差稳定，国 内豆粕成交一般，提货处于高位。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大豆库存大幅下降 70 万吨，因到港量 下滑，同比增 65 万吨，豆粕库存小幅上升 9 万吨，同比下降 21 万吨，上周国内压榨大豆 243 万吨，本 周预计压榨 239 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水近期企稳。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中 美贸易关系 ...