Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the final GDP for the first quarter in the United States, preliminary durable goods orders for May, and the trade balance for goods [1] - Additionally, it mentions the weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending June 21 [1]

ETF Industry News - The three major indices experienced fluctuations and declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%. Several computer sector ETFs saw increases, including the Cloud 50 ETF (560660.SH) which rose by 1.64% and the Cloud Computing Hong Kong-Shenzhen ETF (517390.SH) which increased by 1.05%. Conversely, multiple pharmaceutical and biotechnology ETFs declined, with the Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF (517380.SH) down by 2.11% and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovative Drug ETF (159622.SZ) down by 2.03% [1][2]. - The total scale of stock ETFs has returned to over 3 trillion yuan, with the number of stock ETFs reaching 975 and a total net asset value of approximately 3.05 trillion yuan, accounting for 70.76% of the entire ETF market [1][2]. Market Overview - On June 26, the three major indices collectively fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3448.45 points, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10343.48 points, and the ChiNext Index at 2114.43 points. The highest intraday points were 3462.75, 10440.73, and 2142.21 respectively. The Nikkei 225, CSI 300, and CSI A500 ranked higher in performance, with daily changes of 1.65%, -0.35%, and -0.36% respectively [3]. Sector Performance - In the performance of various sectors, banking, telecommunications, and defense industries ranked higher with daily increases of 1.01%, 0.77%, and 0.55% respectively. In contrast, the automotive, non-bank financial, and pharmaceutical sectors lagged behind with declines of -1.37%, -1.2%, and -1.05% respectively. Over the past five trading days, non-bank financial, computer, and defense industries showed strong performance with increases of 7.69%, 6.15%, and 4.75% respectively [6]. ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs was analyzed based on their scale and daily changes. Commodity ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 0.11%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average decrease of -0.72% [8]. - The top five performing ETFs today included the Communication Equipment ETF (159583.SZ), Cloud 50 ETF (560660.SH), and Gold Stock ETF (159322.SZ), with returns of 1.83%, 1.64%, and 1.44% respectively [10]. Trading Volume of Different ETF Categories - The trading volume of various ETF categories was reported, with the top three stock ETFs by trading volume being the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) at 3.746 billion yuan, A500 ETF (512050.SH) at 3.740 billion yuan, and A500 ETF by Harvest (159351.SZ) at 3.324 billion yuan [12].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on June 26 saw more gains than losses, with coking coal and polysilicon leading the rise, both increasing over 3% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1376.07 points, up 5.40 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1907.82 points, up 7.49 points or 0.39% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices rebounded over 3% on June 26, driven by improved spot trading and a week-on-week increase in steel production [2] - Since hitting a multi-year low of 709 yuan/ton in early June, coking coal prices have rebounded by over 100 yuan in less than a month [2] - Despite the rebound, analysts believe the market's supply-demand imbalance has not been resolved, limiting the potential for significant price increases [2] Group 3: Polysilicon and Industrial Silicon - Polysilicon and industrial silicon both saw significant rebounds, closing up over 3% and 2% respectively, ranking second and third in daily gains [3] - Although the oversupply situation for industrial silicon and polysilicon remains, some regional production bottlenecks and slight increases in downstream production have led to short-term marginal improvements [3] - Analysts caution that the fundamental pressures of inventory accumulation and weak demand will limit the rebound potential for polysilicon and may negatively impact industrial silicon [3] Group 4: Other Commodities - The metals sector experienced a collective rebound, with nickel rising over 2%, while tin, silver, aluminum, zinc, and lithium carbonate all increased by over 1% [4] Group 5: Soybean Meal and Oil Market - Soybean meal contracts saw significant declines, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal down 2.67% and 2.43% respectively [5] - The decline in soybean meal prices is attributed to supply pressures and a continued accumulation of inventory in domestic oil mills [5] - Analysts expect soybean meal prices to face heavy pressure in the short term, while rapeseed meal may gradually recover in the medium to long term due to reduced import volumes [5] Group 6: Crude Oil Market - SC crude oil contracts fell by 1.14%, continuing a weak trend, although international oil prices saw a slight increase due to a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories [6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, significantly exceeding market expectations [6] - Despite short-term price support from tight inventories and seasonal demand, the overall outlook for crude oil remains weak due to ongoing trade uncertainties and strong supply from OPEC+ [6]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's overall export value in May 2025 reached HKD 434.1 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [1] - The overall import value for the same month was HKD 461.4 billion, showing an 18.9% year-on-year rise [1] - The tangible trade deficit for May 2025 was HKD 27.3 billion, equivalent to 5.9% of the import value [1] - For the first five months of 2025, the overall export value increased by 12.6%, while the import value rose by 12.9% [1] By Country/Region Analysis - In May 2025, exports to Asia increased by 21.8%, with significant rises to Japan (96.2%), Malaysia (55.3%), Taiwan (54.8%), Vietnam (41.2%), India (35.1%), and Mainland China (17.6%) [2] - Conversely, exports to South Korea decreased by 25.6% [2] - Exports to the UK and the US saw declines of 52.0% and 18.4%, respectively [2] - Imports from Vietnam surged by 67.3%, while imports from South Korea fell by 19.6% [3] By Major Product Category Analysis - In May 2025, the export value of "electrical machinery, instruments, and apparatus" increased by HKD 27.4 billion (15.5%), and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" rose by HKD 18.9 billion (44.9%) [4] - The import value for "electrical machinery, instruments, and apparatus" increased by HKD 40.4 billion (23.7%), and "office machines and automatic data processing machines" surged by HKD 21.7 billion (69.4%) [4] - For the first five months of 2025, "office machines and automatic data processing machines" exports rose by HKD 125.1 billion (66.1%), while "electrical machinery, instruments, and apparatus" exports increased by HKD 103.3 billion (12.0%) [4]

金十数据6月26日讯，香港特区政府统计处今日发表的对外商品贸易统计数字显示，2025年5月份香港整 体出口和进口货值均录得按年升幅，分别上升15.5%和18.9%。特区政府发言人表示，商品出口货值继 续表现强韧，在5月按年强劲上升15.5%。展望未来，内地经济继续稳步增长，以及香港与不同市场日 益紧密的经贸联系，应会为贸易表现提供支持。 （大湾区之声） 香港5月整体出口货值按年强劲上升 ...

Group 1: Oil and Gas Market - Japan's largest gas supplier, Tokyo Gas, is negotiating a long-term liquefied natural gas procurement agreement with the United States [1] - Shell is reportedly in preliminary talks to acquire BP [3] - If OPEC deems it necessary, Russia is willing to increase oil production again [3] - Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade states that the country's refinery will produce 7.7 million tons of oil products in the second half of the year [3] - Israel's Ministry of Energy has approved the resumption of operations at a natural gas field [3] - The Turpan to Zhongwei section of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline has been fully completed and put into operation [3] Group 2: Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices could reach a peak of $10,050 per ton this year [2]

半年度报告——商品期权 商品期权再拾增长动能，寻找不确定中的 期权机会 报告日期： 2025 年 6 月 26 日 ★ 商品期权：再拾增长动能 今年以来，我国商品期权市场新品种上市节奏有所趋缓，铸 造铝合金、纯苯、丙烯、胶版印刷纸、葵花籽油、铂族金属 等品种或将成为年内主要增量。上半年商品期权成交重返增 长轨道，截至 6 月 15 日累计成交量达 5.95 亿手，同比大幅 增长 49%，增速显著高于 2024 年全年水平。从成交结构看， 贵金属和能源化工成交占比有所增长。 ★ 波动率：宏观及市场情绪抬升商品波动水平 今年上半年，整体商品市场的共振波动主要源于美国关税政 策的变化。2025 年四月，美国宣布对所有进口商品加征 10% 关税，并同步推行所谓"对等关税"政策，引发全球贸易格 局剧烈动荡。4 月 7 日清明节假期结束后的第一个交易日， 商品指数 20 日历史波动率上涨至 18.22%，单日涨幅达 9 个 百分点。随着 4 月 23 日特朗普释放关税下调信号，市场情绪 逐渐缓和，目前短期历史波动率已下降至近历史 25%分位水 平。从隐波看，能源与贵金属受宏观情绪影响波动率变化更 为剧烈。 ★ 期权策略推 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 26 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：6月25日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 29 ...

好久没见！ 最近我在忙着"当嘴替"，帮身边的企业家朋友们对外"说清楚"，同时也在开发添梯"品牌内容体验"的深度内容和工具，隔空向你问好！ 今天说说电商渠道做品牌的事 我发现"蕉内"、"蕉下"这俩品牌挺有意思。可以这么说，研究透这俩品牌，就基本搞懂了电商行业未来做品牌的方向。即使不管你是不是在服装行业，这 俩品牌都值得研究和参考。 一开始我像大多数人一样，只是觉得这俩品牌很像，都是服装大类，名字雷同，产品相近，都是做电商起来的品牌，美学风格也很类似，经常让人"傻傻 分不清楚"（我怀疑他们互相之间也把对方当参照系），关键是这俩品牌在全网的影响力量级也差不多，粉丝数上竟然也难分伯仲，于是我强行这样区分 他们：蕉内有个"内"字，它是做内衣相关的。蕉下是芭蕉叶下，所以它是做防晒产品相关的。 图片源自网络 蕉下更"观察"，我就围着你的户外生活场景想办法，你不要这个我就给你做那个，天天研究怎么吸引你，你就得要。吸引你是我的"命"，其他都排在吸引 你的后头。我这是敬业。 因此，蕉内更像是从"品牌"角度入手开始做品牌：【品牌---我是谁---你是谁---你的需求是什么---我怎么满足】。蕉下更像是从"营销"角度收入开始做品 牌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support to Boost and Expand Consumption" marks a shift in policy focus from goods consumption to service consumption, emphasizing the cultivation of supply rather than merely stimulating demand [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - The "Opinions" outline 19 specific measures across six areas to enhance consumer capacity, cultivate demand, and improve the specialized service capabilities of financial institutions [1] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area, mentioned 13 times in the document, while goods consumption is referenced only twice [1] Group 2: Economic Context - In May, retail sales of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year, showing a 2.6 percentage point improvement from December of the previous year, while service sector growth was more subdued at 6.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from December [1] - Analysts suggest that the marginal effects of the old-for-new consumption policy will weaken, indicating limited growth potential for goods consumption, whereas service consumption still holds significant potential [2] Group 3: Supply-Side Focus - The "Opinions" emphasize the importance of optimizing supply alongside expanding demand, aiming for a virtuous cycle in production, distribution, and consumption [2] - Future policies may focus on increasing financing support for consumer enterprises and investing in service consumption infrastructure, including facilities for culture, sports, healthcare, and community services [3] Group 4: Consumer Confidence - The primary constraint on consumer growth is not financial access but rather macroeconomic pressures and cautious consumer sentiment regarding employment and income [4] - The "Opinions" propose measures to support employment and income growth, enhance consumer confidence, and improve financial services for small and micro enterprises [4]