Summary of Stablecoin Industry and Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The stablecoin industry is characterized by its reliance on fiat currency credit, with USD-pegged stablecoins depending on the credibility of the US dollar. [1] - The stablecoin ecosystem consists of three segments: upstream (infrastructure, issuers, asset management), midstream (payment service providers, exchanges, cross-chain clearing institutions), and downstream (transaction settlement, cross-border payments). [1][4] Key Players and Market Share - USDT, issued by Tether, holds a dominant market position with approximately 60% market share and a market capitalization exceeding $150 billion. However, its reserve transparency has been questioned. [3] - USDC, issued by Circle, is viewed as a compliance benchmark but incurs higher costs, with over 50% of its revenue allocated to distribution expenses. [6] - DAI is a collateralized stablecoin that uses over-collateralization of crypto assets to enhance risk resistance, relying on complex algorithms. [6] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market exhibits a "dual super, many strong" structure, with USDT and USDC accounting for about 85% of the market share. [5] - Stablecoins enhance the USD's status as a global reserve currency and may further penetrate international trade and financial systems through digital means. [1][6] - The expansion of stablecoin usage can increase fiat transaction volume, reinforcing its reserve status. [1] Regulatory Impact - Hong Kong's new regulations, set to take effect in August, represent the first comprehensive regulatory framework globally, expected to drive systemic changes in the industry. Beneficiaries include cross-border payment and clearing service providers, digital infrastructure firms, and banks involved in IT system upgrades. [11][12] Implications for the Chinese Yuan - The development of stablecoins presents both challenges and opportunities for the Chinese Yuan. While the Yuan is currently not a mainstream pegged currency, China is accelerating the development of a digital RMB to enhance its international influence. [7][9] - The stablecoin market could serve as a significant support for the internationalization of the RMB, reducing reliance on the SWIFT system and expanding usage scenarios. [14][15] Future Projections - By 2030, the RMB's share in global cross-border trade payments is projected to increase from 4% to 10%, driven by the growth of stablecoin technology. [16] - Traditional third-party payment companies are expected to benefit significantly from the increase in RMB cross-border payment volumes, with companies like LianLian and Newland positioned to capitalize on this growth. [18][19] Potential Beneficiaries in the Industry - Key beneficiaries in the stablecoin ecosystem include: - Payment service providers (e.g., LianLian, LaKaLa) - Digital infrastructure and security service providers (e.g., Hengbao) - IT system upgrade firms in banking (e.g., Yuxin Technology) [11][22] - The issuance of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is expected to create significant opportunities for early adopters in the sandbox experiment. [21] Conclusion - The stablecoin industry is poised for significant growth and transformation, with regulatory developments in Hong Kong likely to catalyze systemic changes. The interplay between stablecoins and traditional currencies, particularly the USD and RMB, will shape the future of global finance and cross-border transactions. [1][11][14]

Domestic Financial Market - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3472.32, with a slight increase of 0.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.25% to 10508.76 [3][8] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion, an increase of 121 billion compared to the previous trading day [8] Macro News Summary - The People's Bank of China is promoting the digital RMB innovation in relevant free trade zones [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing low-price disorder in the photovoltaic industry, indicating potential recovery for the sector [6] Industry Dynamics - The outdoor economy is emerging as a new consumption trend, with related stocks such as Zhejiang Nature and Explorer [6] - The establishment of a leadership group for general aviation and low-altitude economy by the Civil Aviation Administration of China [6] Company Focus - Zhongzhu Yejitu Group reported a net profit of 560 million to 650 million for the first half of 2025, an increase of 50.97% to 75.23% year-on-year [7] - Zhangyue Technology achieved a breakthrough in overseas short drama business, with nearly 200,000 new users on the iDrama platform [7] - Chip Dynamics reported a net profit between 138 million and 169 million for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 144.46% to 199.37% [7] Market Review and Outlook - The market experienced fluctuations with a peak near 3500 points, but closed lower due to profit-taking [8] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to be crucial for excess returns, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous resources, midstream manufacturing, consumer services, and TMT [8] - New quantitative regulations are being implemented, indicating potential risks for previously high-flying small-cap stocks [8]

Group 1 - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from higher market activity in Q2 2025, becoming one of the structural highlights [1] - The People's Bank of China has revised the rules for the RMB Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS), emphasizing foresight and flexibility to accommodate innovations like blockchain and digital currencies [1] - The central government is focusing on deepening financial openness and innovation in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, including the development of offshore bonds and optimizing free trade account functions [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF tracks a securities company index compiled by China Securities Index Co., which reflects the overall performance of listed companies related to the securities industry [2] - The constituent stocks of the index mainly consist of major domestic securities firms, indicating high industry concentration and market representation [2]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has released a draft for public consultation regarding the rules for the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), aiming to enhance participant management and adapt to the system's growth [1][2] - The draft emphasizes the establishment of a robust risk management framework for operational institutions, including monitoring and managing various types of risks [2] - CIPS has seen significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate of 35% in transaction volume and 30% in transaction value from 2022 to 2024 [3] Industry Developments - The draft rules are designed to support the expansion of CIPS participants, which have increased to 174 direct participants and 1,509 indirect participants as of May 2025, covering 120 countries and regions [3] - CIPS has processed over 675 trillion yuan in various payment transactions since its launch, indicating its growing importance in cross-border payments [3] - The recent signing of agreements with six foreign institutions marks a significant expansion of CIPS's reach into Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Singapore [3] Company Implications - Major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China are directly involved in CIPS, leveraging their global networks to enhance cross-border payment capabilities [4][5] - Payment technology companies like Yika are also positioning themselves in the cross-border payment space, focusing on e-commerce and B2B solutions [5] - Bank of China Hong Kong, as an early participant in CIPS, benefits from direct access to the system, reducing costs and improving efficiency in cross-border RMB clearing [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent guidelines issued by the People's Bank of China and six other departments aim to enhance financial support for consumption, focusing on improving payment services and experiences for consumers, particularly in key consumption areas such as food, housing, transportation, tourism, shopping, entertainment, and healthcare [1] Payment Experience Enhancement - The rapid development of mobile payments in China has led to an increased need for inclusive payment services for foreign visitors who may prefer cash or card payments. From 2019 to May 2025, the total transaction volume for "foreign card binding" and "foreign wallet usage" reached 3.79 billion transactions, amounting to 604.39 billion yuan [2] - Daily average transactions for these services reached 1.2193 million, with a daily average transaction amount of 16.997 million yuan by May 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 185% and 135% respectively [2] Increased Acceptance of Mobile Payments - The acceptance of mobile payments among foreign visitors has significantly improved, with WeChat Pay transactions for foreign cards tripling compared to the previous year. New users can enjoy fee waivers for the first 60 days after binding their foreign cards [3] - Alipay reported a more than 200% increase in usage among inbound tourists from January to May this year, with a 400% increase in transaction volume on the first day of the Dragon Boat Festival [3] Policy Incentives and Consumer Engagement - The "old-for-new" consumption promotion policies have been actively supported by payment platforms like China UnionPay, WeChat Pay, and Alipay, facilitating the distribution of subsidies and enhancing consumer engagement [5] - By May 2025, UnionPay had supported the redemption of over 80 billion yuan in national subsidies, directly stimulating consumption by over 500 billion yuan and benefiting 64 million consumers [5] Digital Currency Innovations - The digital yuan has seen service upgrades, including the expansion of "tap and go" access for public transport in Shanghai, allowing seamless travel for both locals and foreign visitors [7] - The digital yuan hard wallet is gaining popularity among foreign tourists and various demographic groups due to its low entry barriers and wide application scenarios [8] Future Outlook - The digital yuan's promotional activities have not only increased its adoption but also boosted sales in local businesses, with significant transaction volumes reported by banks involved in the initiative [9] - Analysts suggest that enhancing the stability and reliability of the digital yuan system while expanding its application scenarios will be crucial for its future growth [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has issued a notification to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) to enhance the alignment with international high-standard economic and trade rules, aiming for a higher level of institutional openness in the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Pilot Measures and Implementation - 77 pilot measures have been identified for replication, with 4 measures to be implemented in other FTZs and 43 measures to be promoted nationwide [1]. - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes a gradual approach to implementing these measures, focusing on risk control while expanding the scope of international rule alignment [2][3]. Group 2: Focus Areas for Innovation - The initiative will focus on promoting service trade, green trade, and digital trade, with an emphasis on institutional innovations that support new business models and new industries [2]. - The Shanghai FTZ aims to create a high-quality development model by exploring institutional breakthroughs in areas such as artificial intelligence and fintech [2]. Group 3: Achievements and Future Plans - The Shanghai FTZ has successfully implemented 80 pilot measures, resulting in enhanced trade and investment facilitation, accelerated digital trade innovation, and deeper institutional reforms [3]. - Shanghai's digital trade imports and exports are projected to reach $109.53 billion in 2024, representing a 4.9% year-on-year growth and accounting for 30.1% of the national total [4]. Group 4: Financial Sector Developments - The People's Bank of China plans to support the replication of successful financial innovations from the Shanghai FTZ, including the promotion of digital RMB applications and optimized electronic payment services [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has released a draft for public consultation regarding the rules for the Renminbi Cross-Border Payment System (CIPS), detailing account management, funding, and settlement processes [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of promoting stable and healthy development in the real estate market, urging local authorities to implement precise policies [2] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is pushing for a new round of mineral exploration strategies to enhance the resource security of important metal minerals [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce announced the imposition of anti-dumping duties on imported brandy from the European Union starting July 5, 2025 [6][7] - Insurance funds have been actively acquiring shares in the steel industry, with 15 out of 46 A-share steel companies now held by insurance capital, marking a notable trend in investment [8] - The National Energy Administration reported that the national electricity load reached a historical high of 1.465 billion kilowatts on July 4, driven by high temperatures, indicating strong demand in the power sector [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - aspect, the economic and policy environment has an impact on different industries. The stock market is in an upward trend with strong bulls, but there are also uncertainties in the market expectations. In the commodity market, different products have different supply - demand relationships and price trends [19][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Indicators - On July 4, 2025, compared with July 3, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose 0.774% to 44828.53, the Nasdaq Index rose 1.020% to 20601.10, the S&P 500 rose 0.834% to 6279.35, and the Hang Seng Index fell 0.625% to 24069.94. SHIBOR overnight fell 3.663% to 1.32, the US dollar index fell 0.087% to 97.03, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged at 7.16 [2]. - For commodities, COMEX gold fell 0.971% to 3336.00, COMEX silver rose 0.680% to 37.04, LME copper fell 0.584% to 9951.50, etc. [2]. 3.2 Macro News - The Ministry of Commerce has no information on the report of the US President's potential visit with a business delegation, and hopes the US and China can promote healthy and stable development of economic and trade relations [7]. - The US has revoked the requirement for three major chip - design software suppliers to apply for government permission for their business in China [7]. - The State Council will replicate 77 pilot measures of the Shanghai Free - Trade Zone, with 34 measures extended to other free - trade zones and 43 to the whole country [7]. - The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which will increase the federal debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [8]. - China and the EU held the 13th high - level strategic dialogue, and China will ensure normal demand for rare - earth exports from European enterprises [8]. - In June, the Caixin China Services PMI was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, and the Composite PMI output index rebounded 1.7 percentage points to 51.3 [8]. - From January to May, China's service trade volume was 32543.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%, with exports growing 15.1% and imports growing 2.7% [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will address the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [11]. - For oils and fats, on June 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 57% compared with the previous trading day. About 12% of US soybean - planting areas were affected by drought in the week of June 24, and the palm oil export volume from June 1 - 25 in Malaysia increased [11]. - On July 3, the sugar futures main contract closed at 5767 yuan/ton. The domestic sugar market has good sales data, but international sugar prices are weak. It is recommended to go long with caution [11]. - On July 3, the corn futures main contract closed at 2363 yuan/ton, slightly down. The supply - demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - The price of live pigs is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is stable and the demand is improving. The futures main contract is strong [13]. - The price of eggs is stable. The short - term supply exceeds demand, but there are positive expectations in the medium - term. It is recommended to try to go long [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - For caustic soda, the market sentiment has improved, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at 2400 - 2500 yuan/ton [13]. - The price of urea fluctuates slightly. Supply is expected to decrease in July, and demand is increasing. The futures price may continue to fluctuate [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - For copper and aluminum, the market macro - sentiment is positive, and a long - position thinking can be adopted after breaking through the pressure level [15]. - For alumina, the cost is expected to decrease slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the May high [15]. - For steel products, the steel price is firm in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [15]. - For ferroalloys, the price rebound may release supply pressure in the long - term. A short - term long and long - term short strategy is recommended [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal market fluctuates, and coke has a price - increase expectation, but the raw - material support is weakening [15]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the previous high, a small - position long position can be considered [17]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - The stock market is in an upward trend. The main indexes have reached new highs, and the technology and pharmaceutical sectors are performing well. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC, and adjust positions according to market sentiment [19][21]. - For options, different options have different volume and position changes, and trend investors should focus on defense, while volatility investors can hold long - straddle positions [22].

Core Insights - The development of digital RMB has accelerated significantly this year, with the recent expansion of the "tap and go" trial to the entire Shanghai metro network, allowing passengers to use various forms of digital RMB wallets for quick access [1][4] - Multiple cities, including Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shanghai, have released development plans for digital RMB pilot projects, enhancing application scenarios and optimizing the ecosystem [1][6] Group 1: Digital RMB Application Expansion - The "tap and go" feature supports cross-institutional interoperability, enabling passengers to use digital RMB wallets from any operating institution to access the Shanghai metro [4] - The Shanghai metro network spans 896 kilometers with 21 lines and 517 stations, handling over 77% of the city's public transport volume daily [4] - The digital RMB hard wallet is gaining popularity among foreign visitors and demographics such as the elderly and students due to its low entry barrier and wide coverage [5] Group 2: Diverse Application Scenarios - Digital RMB applications have expanded from retail payments to include government services, public transport, and financial services, creating a comprehensive application landscape [6] - Various regions have actively promoted the expansion of digital RMB application scenarios, technological innovation, and ecosystem optimization [6] Group 3: Consumer Promotion and Financial Services - In the consumer sector, local governments and institutions have continued to issue digital RMB consumption red envelopes, integrating welfare policies with technological innovation to stimulate consumption and support economic growth [7] - Beijing Bank has initiated the first digital RMB technology enterprise merger loan pilot, enhancing fund circulation efficiency and reducing financing costs for enterprises [7] Group 4: Cross-Border Payment and Future Prospects - Cross-border payment has emerged as a highlight in the development of digital RMB, with pilot banks actively participating in the multilateral central bank digital currency bridge project [10][11] - The multilateral central bank digital currency bridge project is expected to become a new channel for global digital trade settlement, reducing transaction costs and improving settlement efficiency [11][12] - Experts predict that digital RMB will play a larger role in cross-border payments, green finance, and smart economy sectors, contributing to a more efficient and secure digital economic ecosystem [12]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 2025/7/4 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | | | | | IF当月 IF下月 | | | | | IF下季 IF隔季 | | | | 前两日收盘价 3921.00 3903.20 | | | | | 3894.20 3856.20 | | | | 前日收盘价 3946.60 3928.00 | | | | | 3918.00 3879.00 | | | | 涨跌 27.00 25.80 沪深300 | | | | | 26.20 24.80 | ...