靠着关税，老美4月份赚了一大笔，但特朗普却怎么也高兴不起来。 按照美国财政部的说法，4月份特朗普政府斩获关税总额163亿美元，跟3月份的87.5亿美元相比，增长86%，跟去年同期的71亿美元相比，超了一倍还多。 然而，这跟特朗普的期望值比起来，依旧差得有点远，更严重的问题是，极度缺钱的特朗普政府，可能又又又要关门了。 关税收入翻倍还不够，特朗普的野心有多大？为何白宫再次面临"关门危机"？ 今天我们就来谈谈这些问题，码字不易，欢迎点赞，转发，收藏。 4月2日起，特朗普政府实施"对等关税"政策，对57个贸易伙伴加征10%到49%不等的关税。 一夜之间，特朗普政府的关税收入大增，根据美国财政部的预算结果，每天美国从关税中获得的收入超过5亿美元。 但特朗普是怎么说的？ 当初特朗普曾夸下海口，说"美国靠关税赚了一大笔钱，每天20亿美元"。 每天20亿美元和每天5亿美元，实在差得不少。 而且这背后还存在一个逻辑： 进口的商品少了，关税收入当然也会减少，这就相当于把稳定的长期现金流变成了一波"快财"。 美国现在最大的问题，特朗普最大的烦恼是啥？ 就俩字——缺钱！或者换俩字——太穷！ 这种相当于饮鸩止渴的收入增加方式，特朗普 ...

关税中场休息，疯狂囤货开始了。 据央视报道，根据贸易追踪机构Vizion的数据显示，中美互降关税之后，在美国下单的从中国到美国的集装箱运输预订量飙升将近300%。 对此，有声音称这是因为中美互降关税，中美贸易受利好消息刺激，回暖了。 啥情况，中美贸易真的回暖了？美国外贸商疯狂囤货，究竟为哪般？关税给美国留下了什么伤疤？ 而等到中美发布联合声明后，七天平均预订量暴涨277%到了21530个标准集装箱。 相应的，中国到美西、美东的运价也出现上涨，相较之前分别涨了75美元/40英尺标准箱和52美元/40英尺标准箱，现在的价格是2347美元/40英尺标准箱和 3335美元/40英尺标准箱，涨幅分别为20%和7.5%。 只不过，尽管价格大涨，依旧无法阻挡美国外贸商囤货的热情。 但必须要说明的是，美国外贸商疯狂囤货，与其说这是中美贸易回暖，倒不如说是美国外贸商被特朗普整怕了，生怕关税卷土重来。 其实现在大家的想法都差不多： 尽管现在中美互降关税，但也只是暂时的而已，如果90天后没谈成怎么办？ 要知道，前几天特朗普已经表态，如果90天内中美谈判不成，那么对华关税仍将大幅上涨，只是不会涨到145%那么离谱而已。 所以说到底， ...

Core Viewpoint - The current most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, particularly the tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which have shocked the world [2] Group 1: International Trade and Investment Dynamics - The competitiveness of the U.S. in general processing and labor-intensive manufacturing is not strong enough, making it difficult for manufacturing to return to the U.S. as desired by the Trump administration [2] - Due to policy uncertainties, manufacturing companies are more inclined to seek locations with lower costs and tariffs, which are often found in global South countries and emerging markets [2] - The current situation indicates three "rebalancing" trends in the international trade and investment system: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, global trade rebalancing leading to profound adjustments in major economies' internal structures, and currency rebalancing towards a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system [2] Group 2: Changes in the International Monetary System - The dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges, including the weaponization of currency and the "Triffin dilemma," which necessitates changes in the international monetary system [3] - Changes in the international monetary system may advance in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies in the international monetary system, increased focus on cryptocurrencies for cross-border trade and investment, and potential enhancement of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) functionality [3]

Group 1 - President Trump's visit to Qatar and subsequent meetings highlight the strengthening of U.S.-Qatar relations, particularly in defense and economic investment sectors [1][4] - Qatar Airways signed a significant agreement with Boeing valued at $96 billion for up to 210 aircraft, marking the largest wide-body aircraft order in Boeing's history [2][3] - The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have signed a military sales agreement worth nearly $142 billion, which is described as the largest military sale in history [5] Group 2 - The resumption of Boeing aircraft deliveries to Chinese airlines is expected to revitalize Boeing's production and lead to a rapid rebound in the aviation sector between the U.S. and China [3] - Qatar is focusing on its "2030 National Vision" and aims to deepen cooperation with the U.S. in various fields, including economic investment and technology [4] - The U.S. seeks to leverage Qatar's investment capabilities, which exceed $510 billion, to create jobs and support manufacturing and supply chain restructuring [4]

以下文章来源于海豚投研 ，作者海豚君 海豚投研 . 有灵魂的思考、有态度的研究。 来源 | 海豚投研 从4月2日的对等关税解放日到5月12日，经过一个多月的中美关税互相拉扯，5月12日，中美终于 给出了一个令人松口气的谈判结果——美国对中国征收30%的关税，另外24%暂缓90天执行；中 国对美国征收10%的关税，另外24%暂缓90天执行。 这个结果，无论是对中美双方如何，对于资本市场是一个显著的利好，但现在的问题是，是不是 说美股风险就可以消除了，美股能够继续疫情大放水后的辉煌时代，人们又可以ALL IN 美股了 吗？ 这 下 ， 所 有 人 都 赢 麻 了 ？ 按照中美最新贸易谈判公告，等于一通互撕之后，双方都回到了4月2日，也就是解放日当天的关 税上，而2号之后互扔刀子的税率——50%、41%全都取消了。 围绕4月2日美国一键拉出的对华34%的对等关税，10%保留，剩下24%暂缓90天执行；中国也是 同样：保留10%的对美关税，其余24%暂缓90天执行。 4月2日之前，重新上任的特朗普，还以美国以芬太尼为由，对中国所有商品2、3月份连续两次加 征关税，每次加征10%，两次累计20%。 美 国 关 税 到 ...

Core Points - The recent high-level economic talks between China and the U.S. resulted in an agreement to suspend tariff measures for 90 days and reduce tax rates by 115%, which is expected to boost trade and shipping demand [1] - Political and economic pressures have led President Trump to reconsider his stance on tariffs, as dissatisfaction among blue-collar workers and large corporations has increased [2][4] - The Trump administration's attempts to leverage tariffs to force concessions from China have faced backlash from U.S. businesses, which warn of significant economic costs [4][5] Group 1 - The agreement reached in Geneva is seen as a positive development, with analysts predicting increased orders from U.S. importers and a subsequent rise in shipping demand [1] - Trump's initial reluctance to lower tariffs was influenced by growing discontent among his political base, particularly blue-collar workers, prompting his aides to warn of potential voter loss [2] - The rapid changes in U.S. trade policy under Trump, including over 50 new or modified tariff policies since his inauguration, reflect the administration's struggle to balance economic goals with political realities [5][6] Group 2 - Despite the recent agreement, the average tariff rate on imported goods remains high at 17.8%, significantly above pre-Trump levels, indicating ongoing economic strain for American households [6] - Analysts express skepticism about the sustainability of Trump's tariff policies, given the potential negative impact on the U.S. economy and market growth [6][7] - The political implications of tariff adjustments are significant, as Trump's approval ratings are closely tied to economic performance, making further tariff increases unlikely [7]

作者 | 张子怡 编辑 | 袁斯来 关税的最新变化对出海行业而言，无疑是天大的好消息。 目前，美国和中国已达成协议，暂时取消了4月份以来相互加征的大部分关税。美国同意将针对大部分中国商品加征的基本关税从145%下调至30%。 当然，没人能预测特朗普的下一步动作，但至少所有人都可以喘口气。 很多行业的创业者经历了悲喜交加的一个月。 特朗普145%的关税落地时，Ebike公司Velotric的创始人张曦还在美国，他们从创业开始就主攻这一市场。那一天，妻子显得很焦虑。她催张曦赶紧回深 圳，因为自己收到20多条信息，都在问：Velotric是不是要倒闭了？ "过去两年都讲不出海就出局，现在是出海也出局。"后来，张曦在光点投资的分享会上感叹。 从中国硬件跨出国门的那一天起，公司们钟爱的市场就是欧洲和美国。太多昂贵而新鲜的品类，只能在成熟的欧美市场寻找扎根的土地，国内用户很少听 说的Ebike算是代表性的一类。欧洲和美国市场多少有些相似性，中国硬件公司早已习惯隔着大西洋，娴熟地腾挪。 以Ebike为例，过去两年，欧洲Ebike增速早已停滞、甚至出现下滑，渗透率还很低的美国理所应当成了下一个开拓地。 这场关税一度打乱了整个 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the signing of multiple cooperation agreements between the United States and Qatar during President Trump's visit, including a significant order from Boeing worth $200 billion for 160 aircraft [1][4]. - Boeing's stock price experienced a notable increase, rising by 2.8% to $209.11, with a market capitalization of $157.67 billion following the announcement [2]. - Qatar is positioning itself as a key partner for the U.S. in the Middle East, with ongoing collaborations in defense, security, and economic investment [4][5]. Group 2 - Qatar is actively pursuing its "2030 National Vision," aiming to expand cooperation with the U.S. in various sectors, including economic investment, information technology, and healthcare [8]. - The Trump administration seeks to leverage Qatar's investment capabilities, with the Qatar Investment Authority managing over $510 billion, to support job creation and the restructuring of supply chains in the U.S. [8]. - Strengthening ties with Qatar is seen as a strategic move for the U.S. to gain political and economic benefits while maintaining influence in the Middle East with minimal investment [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. is likely to back down in the trade war with China, as evidenced by the recent decision to cancel most tariffs after April 2025 and only retain 10% tariffs, while suspending an additional 24% for 90 days [1][9][10] - China has responded to U.S. tariffs with its own measures, imposing tariffs on various American goods, resulting in a total of 30% tariffs on Chinese exports to the U.S. [1][3] - The trade relationship between the U.S. and China remains significant, with nearly $700 billion in trade expected in 2024, highlighting China's importance as a major export market for the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - China's export dependency on the U.S. has decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a shift towards diversifying its trade relationships [7] - The Chinese government has implemented monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions, to stabilize its economy amid the trade tensions [7] - China has also employed non-tariff measures, including reducing imports of U.S. agricultural products and imposing export controls on rare earths, demonstrating its ability to counter U.S. actions [7][15] Group 3 - The U.S. faces significant domestic challenges, including stock market declines and public discontent, which may pressure the administration to ease trade tensions with China [9][10] - The upcoming 90-day period for the suspension of additional tariffs will be critical, as China is expected to maintain its stance without yielding to U.S. demands [12][13] - China's confidence in its economic resilience suggests that it is well-prepared for ongoing trade confrontations, with a belief that the U.S. will struggle more in the long run [13][15]

从4月2日的对等关税解放日到5月12日，经过一个多月的中美关税互相拉扯，5月12日，中美终于给出了一个令人松口气的谈判结果——美国对中国征收 30%的关税，另外24%暂缓90天执行；中国对美国征收10%的关税，另外24%暂缓90天执行。 按照中美最新贸易谈判公告，等于一通互撕之后，双方都回到了4月2日，也就是解放日当天的关税上，而2号之后互扔刀子的税率——50%、41%全都取 消了。 围绕4月2日美国一键拉出的对华34%的对等关税，10%保留，剩下24%暂缓90天执行；中国也是同样：保留10%的对美关税，其余24%暂缓90天执行。 4月2日之前，重新上任的特朗普，还以美国以芬太尼为由，对中国所有商品2、3月份连续两次加征关税，每次加征10%，两次累计20%。在4月2日对等关 税之前，中国的反制错失整体保持理性和克制：主要是对美国农产品等特定行业加了一些关税，另外还有一些非关税的反制措施，比如说把一些美国企业 加入不可靠实体清单、对稀土、钨等原料进行对美的出口关注，对谷歌等进行反垄断调查，等等。 这个结果，无论是对中美双方如何，对于资本市场是一个显著的利好，但现在的问题是，是不是说美股风险就可以消除了，美股能够 ...