当下，分红险正逐渐成为推动人身险行业转型的重要引擎。而保险产品的预定利率持续走低，也在悄然改写行业的竞争逻辑与产品价值边界。这一趋势， 既是防范利差损风险的现实要求，也为行业回归保障本源、提升资产管理与精算定价能力提供了契机。 来源：燕梳师院 分化显著，稳中有升 谈及分红险，红利实现率值得我们重点关注。截至目前，不少人身险企陆续披露了2024年度分红险的现金红利实现率。以五家险企为例，在新华人寿、阳 光人寿、瑞泰人寿、德华安顾人寿、恒安标准人寿公布的129款产品中，过一半现金红利实现实现率达100%及以上，最高达306%。 红利实现率是一个用于衡量公司实际派发的红利与预期演示红利之间关系的指标。它反映了公司将可分配利润转化为红利支付给消费者的比例。具体来 说，红利实现率可以通过计算实际派发的红利与预期演示红利之比来得出。 图源：13个精算师 除此之外，有三款产品还有终了红利，均为40%。所谓终了红利，是指在保险合同终止时一次性支付的较大额红利。相比年度红利更注重长期持有带来的 累计效益，终了红利则提供合同到期时的一次性高额回报。 | 产品名称。 | | | 年度红利 | | | 终 红树 | | | | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares are expected to experience a "first oscillation, then upward" trend in the second half of the year, with structural opportunities highlighted in technology growth and dividend assets [1][2][3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will see a continuous upward adjustment in the second half, driven by a weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and improved liquidity [2] - The market is expected to present a "stable index, structural bull" scenario, with significant opportunities for value re-evaluation in technology and emerging consumption sectors [2] - The overall liquidity environment is anticipated to improve, supporting a gradual recovery in the market's fundamentals [3] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to perform well include stable assets and growth-oriented technology assets, with a focus on transportation, consumer goods, publishing, gaming, and high ROE sectors [4] - Growth assets are likely to center around military industry, pharmaceuticals, communications, gaming, and AI technologies [4] - Specific investment opportunities include domestic consumption sectors, technology growth in AI and robotics, and industries benefiting from cost improvements [5] Analyst Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on five areas: domestic consumption, technology growth, cost-improved industries, structural opportunities from overseas expansion, and stable dividend-paying assets [5] - Emphasis is placed on technology sectors marked by innovation and strategic significance, as well as consumer services and new consumption trends [5]

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20250701 预期高股息组合跟踪-20250630 2025 年 07 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 红利择时框架 2025 年 7 月观点：不再看多红利。 ◼ 2025 年 7 月组合最新持仓明细： | 序号 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 申万一级行业 | 建仓日期 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601668.SH | 中国建筑 | 建筑装饰 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 2 | 603833.SH | 欧派家居 | 轻工制造 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 3 | 601838.SH | 成都银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 4 | 000651.SZ | 格力电器 | 家用电器 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 5 | 601328.SH | 交通银行 | 银行 | 2025/7/1 | 3.33% | | 6 | 000157.SZ | 中联重科 | ...

Market Performance - On July 1, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.39% to 3457.75 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume in A-shares reached 1.5 trillion yuan [1] Banking Sector Insights - Bank stocks regained momentum, with Suzhou Bank rising over 5%, and both China Construction Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank increasing by over 2% to reach new highs [1] - Among 42 banks listed, 39 are expected to distribute cash dividends in 2024 that exceed the previous year, with an overall increase in dividend payouts by 18.6 billion yuan [1] ETF Performance - Various banking ETFs, including Bank AH Preferred ETF and Bank ETF Index Fund, saw gains of over 1%, with year-to-date increases exceeding 16% [1] - Specific performance data for banking ETFs includes: - Bank AH Preferred ETF: +1.70% (YTD +23.70%) - Bank ETF Index Fund: +1.65% (YTD +17.33%) - Bank ETF: +1.52% (YTD +16.97%) [2] Fund Inflows - In June, there was a net inflow of funds into banking ETFs, with Bank ETF receiving 3.377 billion yuan, Bank ETF Tianhong 736 million yuan, and Bank AH Preferred ETF 411 million yuan [5][7] - The total net inflow into banking stocks reached 104.35 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 3.2% of the current free float market value of banks [9] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that the banking sector is benefiting from policy catalysts and that cyclical stocks may present alpha opportunities [10] - Specific banks to watch include: - For cyclical strategies: Ningbo Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Changshu Bank - For dividend strategies: Shanghai Bank, China Merchants Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and others showing positive fundamental changes [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance and features of the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209), which has shown a positive trend in the market, reflecting a growing interest in high-quality dividend stocks [1]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 1, the China Securities Dividend Quality ETF (159209) increased by 0.60%, indicating a strong market performance [1]. - The ETF has experienced net inflows during trading, suggesting investor confidence and interest [1]. Group 2: ETF Characteristics - The ETF tracks the China Securities All Index Dividend Quality Index, which selects 50 companies known for stable dividends, high dividend yields, and consistent profitability [1]. - The ETF employs a "dividend + quality" dual-factor screening mechanism to identify undervalued and high-quality companies, aligning with Warren Buffett's value investment philosophy [1]. Group 3: Fee Structure and Investor Appeal - The fee structure of the ETF is competitive, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05%, making it one of the lowest in the market [1]. - The ETF features a unique monthly dividend assessment mechanism that enhances cash flow management for investors, increasing its attractiveness for long-term holding [1]. Group 4: Market Context - In the current market environment, strategies that balance safety margins and profitability are becoming a focal point for investors [1].

Core Viewpoint - The red dividend low volatility ETF (512890) has shown strong resilience in the market, attracting significant capital inflow and achieving a substantial fund size, indicating its appeal as a defensive investment option in a volatile market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Attractiveness - As of June 30, the red dividend low volatility ETF (512890) has a historical high point since its base date (December 30, 2005), with an annualized return of 9.47% over the past five years, outperforming the red dividend low volatility 100 index and the S&P Hong Kong Stock Connect low dividend index, which had annualized returns of 7.43% and 6.49% respectively [1]. - The red dividend low volatility ETF (512890) has attracted a cumulative net inflow of 1.02 billion yuan since June 16, indicating growing investor interest [1]. - By June 30, the fund size of the red dividend low volatility ETF (512890) reached 18.741 billion yuan, making it one of the few hundred billion-level dividend-themed ETFs in the A-share market [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - In the current investment environment characterized by rapid rotation of hot sectors and declining risk-free interest rates, dividend assets with stable ROE and defensive characteristics are expected to remain attractive, serving as an important allocation direction for risk-averse investors [2]. - For investors without stock accounts, the red dividend low volatility ETF (512890) has associated connection funds (including A class 007466, C class 007467, I class 022678, Y class 022951) that are also gaining popularity among off-market investors [2]. - The connection fund of Huatai-PineBridge's red dividend low volatility ETF is notable for having over 820,000 account holders, making it one of the few dividend-themed index funds with such a high number of holders [2]. Group 3: Fund Management - Huatai-PineBridge has developed a comprehensive range of dividend-themed ETFs, including the first red dividend ETF (510880) and the first QDII mode ETF for high dividend stocks in Hong Kong (513530), with a total management scale of 41.108 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the growth style is currently favored, with strong performance in sectors such as communication, computer, and electronics, while the dividend style remains a high-certainty direction [1][2] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is at a historical low valuation, with a latest price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.86, which is lower than 91.23% of the time over the past three years, highlighting its attractive valuation [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index account for 20.42% of the index, with notable companies including Dongwu Securities, Kaiying Network, and Huagong Technology [2] Group 2 - The 500 Quality Growth ETF has shown a recent upward trend, with a 0.31% increase, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - According to Dongwu Securities, the communication sector has a relatively high risk but is currently the strongest trend, while the computer sector has lower risk and greater potential for catch-up [1] - The banking sector is expected to rebound after June, influenced by the timing of mid-year reports [1]

近期市场情绪的抬升，正获得资金面的有力验证。 近期，A股市场量价齐升。在这轮攻势背后，头部私募机构正以真金白银的仓位布局A股—— 全市场股 票私募机构平均仓位继续运行在今年以来的相对高位，近九成百亿级股票私募机构的仓位超50%。 一线私募认为，海外风险趋缓、政策预期升温与市场内生修复动能形成合力，共同点燃本轮行情。随着 中报业绩预告时间窗口的临近， 私募机构将投资目光聚焦于科技成长、红利防御与消费复苏三大主 线，预期市场中期表现值得期待。 机构仓位整体高位运行 来自第三方机构私募排排网的监测数据显示，私募机构已进入"较高仓位状态"。截至6月20日，全市场 股票私募平均仓位达74.62%，较前一周小幅上升0.37个百分点，这一数值处于今年以来的中等偏高水 平。 百亿级股票私募机构的仓位更为激进。 截至6月20日， 百亿级股票私募机构 平均仓位为 79.43%， 显著 高于行业均值，处于今年以来的高位区间。 其中，有52.99%的百亿级股票私募机构处于重仓或满仓状 态（仓位大于80%），另有35.63%的百亿级股票私募机构的仓位处于中等偏高水平（仓位在50%至80% 之间）。这意味着近九成（88.62%）百亿级股 ...

在家电以旧换新的浪潮下，再生资源回收链条的畅通至关重要。这既需要政策的支持和推动，也离不开 企业的积极响应。在邢台恒亿再生资源回收有限公司，只见一台台电视机、电冰箱、空调等废旧家电经 过分类、拆装，被分解为可循环利用材料。叉车穿梭其中，将这些材料称重、分类装车，运往下游生产 企业进行循环利用。 "五一消费旺季以来，在以旧换新促消费政策的激励下，家电回收量达12万台，同比增长76%。"恒亿再 生资源回收有限公司财务负责人蒋芹霞说道。然而，面对激增的废旧家电回收需求，企业传统生产线压 力凸显，设备升级迫在眉睫。"2024年，企业享受了研发费用加计扣除政策174.91万元，综合利用资源 生产产品取得的收入在计算应纳税所得额时减计收入 2524.87万元。"蒋芹霞表示，在强劲的税惠支持 下，企业得以升级改造拆解线、优化设备结构和提高能源利用效率，产能得到高倍提升的同时，大大降 低了生产能耗。 "可享受国家补贴""政府补贴再减15%"…… 近日，走进河北邢台家乐园天一商贸家电卖场，广播里循环 播放着家用电器以旧换新政策。众多市民趁着有补贴抓紧购买所需的家电产品，收银台前排起了长队， 工作人员忙得不可开交。 "今年1月至 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the performance and liquidity of the 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF, which has seen a recent trading volume of 1.02% and a total transaction value of 56.05 million yuan [3] - As of June 30, the 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF has a total scale of 5.462 billion yuan and has achieved a net value increase of 80.94% over the past five years, ranking 38th out of 991 index equity funds, placing it in the top 3.83% [3] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception is 13.89%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being five months and the longest gain percentage being 14.56%, averaging a monthly return of 3.66% during up months [3] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index include China Shenhua, Gree Electric, Sinopec, and others, collectively accounting for 35.21% of the index [3] - Market analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the equity market are normal due to the approaching tariff deadline on July 9 and the previous popularity of dividend strategies, indicating that dividend assets hold an advantage in uncertain environments [5] - The report from Ping An Securities indicates that the banking sector remains attractive in a persistently ample liquidity environment, with low interest rates expected to continue, suggesting a focus on dividend strategies while considering flexibility [6]