-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏弱 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 焦煤跌至大矿成本线，关注持仓变化 焦炭： 现货二轮提降落地，期货下行。天津港准一级焦报 1340 元/吨(-0)，第二轮提降全 面落地。活跃合约报 1308 元/吨(-24)。基差 133 元/吨(+24)，9-1 月差-23.5 元/吨(- 5.5)。 供给持平，需求见顶回落。230 家独立焦企生产率报 75.08%(-0.1)。247 家钢厂产 能利用率报 90.69%(-0.63)，铁水日均产量 241.91 万吨(-1.69)。 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 20 ...

摘要 事件： 5月31日，国家统计局公布5月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49%；非制造业PMI为50.3%、前值 50.4%。 观察细分行业看，内需主导尤其国内消费支撑力大的制造业PMI表现更好，出口依赖度高或投资驱动影响大的行 业表现偏弱。 5月，装备制造、消费品等行业受内需支撑较大，两个行业PMI边际上行1.6、0.8pct至51.2%、 50.2%；食品加工、专用设备等行业也受内需影响较大，生产指数和新订单指数均高于54.0%。相比之下，出口依 赖度较高的纺织、化学纤维、黑色压延等行业生产及新订单指数均低于临界点；同时，高耗能行业PMI受外需及 国内投资较弱的双重拖累，较前月下行0.7pct至47%。 核心观点： 5月新出口指数偏低，但内需如消费品、装备制造行业PMI明显改善。 制造业分项中，新订单指数的表现，也指向内外需驱动力的分化在进一步拉大，其中内需订单的修复程度好于新 出口。 5月，内需订单指数再度回升至荣枯线以上（+0.3pct至50.1%）；4-5月平均看，该指数较3月回落2.2pct。相 比之下，新出口订单指数尽管边际回升2.8pct至47.5%，但4-5月平均值仍较3月下行 ...

核 心 观 点 市场已经见证了宏观政策对风险偏好的显著影响，但对于政策的理解，却往往陷入基于历史经验归因的窠臼。事实上，当前宏观政策框架较以 往发生了明显变化，我们在深度报告《 央行新框架，对利率有何影响？ 》中对货币政策的框架更新已有深入分析，本文我们把视角放在更为 重要的财政政策。 财政：逆周期还是顺 周期 ？ 财政政策在宏观调控中是逆周期调节的主要手段，但现实中财政政策的逆周期特征可能并不显著，甚至往往还会 体现出顺周期性的特点。特别地，从广义财政支出的增长来看，近几年甚至还赶不上GDP的增速，广义财政支出增长的乏力，很大程度上受到 土地财政的拖累。但财政的顺周期特征，归根结底，还是来自于过往对政府举债空间的约束，以收定支的财政取向形成了顺周期的支出模式。 如果从全球宏观杠杆率的对比来看，我国政府杠杆率并不算高，政府部门还有加杠杆空间。值得重视的是，以往对于政府举债规模的严格约 束，正在有所松动，这又恰恰对应着逆周期调节效果能够更好得到发挥。一是财政赤字率目标设定的突破；二是近来特别国债的使用和预算调 整更加灵活。 货币政策越来越像财政。 以往货币政策对资产价格走势有着较大的主导权，而在新框架中财政政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the need to monitor the impact of investor speculation on fiscal policy regarding the supply and demand conditions of ultra-long-term government bonds [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is focusing on the supply and demand dynamics of ultra-long-term government bonds [1] - There is a specific concern regarding how investor behavior related to fiscal policy may influence these dynamics [1]

摘要 事件： 5月31日，国家统计局公布5月PMI指数，制造业PMI为49.5%、前值49%；非制造业PMI为50.3%、前值 50.4%。 核心观点： 5月新出口指数偏低，但内需如消费品、装备制造行业PMI明显改善。 5月制造业PMI整体与分项读数均有改善；相对来看，生产指数恢复程度更好，而需求指数偏低。 5月制造业PMI 有所回升，边际上行0.5pct至49.5%。主要分项中，生产、新订单指数均有回升，边际分别上行0.9、0.6pct。由于 PMI为环比指标，反映本月制造业景气度较上月的边际变化；产需对比看，生产指数回升至荣枯线以上 （50.7%），而新订单指数（49.8%）仍在收缩区间，反映生产明显加快，但需求仍较弱。 展望后续：目前美国关税政策的不确定性依然较大，后续需重点关注增量财政政策对内需的支撑效果。 5月29日， 美国国际贸易法庭裁决特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)加征关税的行为违法，但美国联邦巡回上诉法 院发出行政中止命令，暂时冻结国际贸易法庭的特朗普关税违法判决，当前关税在整个上诉期间继续征收。目前 外部不确定性仍较大，而金融政策已先行落地，后续应重点关注增量财政"续力"的可 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the farewell of Elon Musk from the U.S. government's Efficiency Department, highlighting the perceived failure of the government's efficiency governance despite the public display of unity between Musk and President Trump [2][3][5]. Group 1: Musk's Role and Achievements - Musk was recognized for leading significant government reforms, with Trump stating that Musk "led the largest government reform in generations" [3]. - The Efficiency Department, under Musk's leadership, claimed to have saved $175 billion in federal spending, which is significantly lower than Musk's initial promise of $2 trillion [8]. - Musk expressed that he did not fully achieve his goal of cutting $1 trillion in federal spending and indicated that more time is needed to meet this target [8]. Group 2: Relationship Dynamics - Musk has been a close ally of Trump, contributing over $290 million during the last federal election cycle [5]. - Despite their apparent camaraderie, Musk has had disputes with several cabinet members, including Secretary of State Rubio and Treasury Secretary Bessent, indicating underlying tensions within the administration [5][6]. - Musk criticized a recent large-scale tax and spending bill, expressing disappointment that it did not reduce the budget deficit as intended [7]. Group 3: Future Involvement - Musk stated he would continue to support the Efficiency Department and serve as a friend and advisor to Trump, although specific future roles were not detailed [3][8]. - The article suggests that Musk's departure may be linked to the pressures and challenges faced by the Efficiency Department, which he described as a "scapegoat" for broader governmental issues [7][8].

摘要 广义财政支出的高增长，更多依赖政府债务发行前置，尤其是国债的快速发行。 1-4 月政府债净融资 4.8 万亿元，同比多增 3.6 万亿元，成为广义财政支出的核心支撑。截至 2025 年 5 月 24 日，国债已发行规 模达预算目标的 42.7%，远超 2020-2024 年均值。 后续财政走势如何？增量政策的出台或可平滑财政支出节奏，巩固经济恢复态势。 2025 年财政政策更为积极，全年安排政府债净融资规模达 13.86 万亿元。 截至 5 月底，政府债已净融资 6.3 万亿元，尚余 7.5 万亿元待发行。具体来看，2025 年新增债务构成包括：赤字 56600 亿元、超长期特 别国债 13000 亿元、注资特别国债 5000 亿元、新增专项债 44000 亿元、化债资金 20000 亿元，整体较 2024 年多增 2.9 万亿元。 在政府债融资规模保持既定安排的假设下，预计至 9 月底政府债净融资将维持高位。 4月政治局会议提 出"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"，后续地方政府有望落实。鉴于今年国债净融 资增量可观，其发行节奏或延续年初以来态势。综合来看，二季度政府债净融资同比多增或达 ...

-------------------- 商品研究 -------------------- [Table_ReportType] 煤焦早报 ----------------- 期 走势评级： 焦炭——震荡偏弱 焦煤——震荡偏弱 刘开友—黑色研究员 从业资格证号：F03087895 投资咨询证号：Z0019509 联系电话：0571-28132535 邮箱：liukaiyou@cindasc.com 信达期货股份有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 供给继续回落，矿山继续累库，煤焦增仓下行 报告日期： [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 30 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 1. 美国联邦巡回上诉法院 29 日批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院 此前做出的禁止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施 的行政命令政令的裁决。 焦煤： 现货下调，期货下行。蒙 5#主焦煤报 918 元/吨(-2)。活跃合约报 759 元/吨(-20)。基 差 179 元/吨(+18)， ...

瑞银全球财富管理公司的Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi：我们预计随着贸易和财政政策相关的新闻不断出 现，市场将继续进一步波动。 我们仍预期美股在未来12个月将会上涨，但今年近期内的涨幅可能较为有限。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy in China has been actively implemented in the first four months of 2023, with a significant increase in fiscal expenditure compared to revenue, supporting economic resilience in April [2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2023, the total national broad fiscal revenue reached 93,202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure was 119,717 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% [2][5]. - The fiscal revenue shortfall compared to expenditure was approximately 26,515 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of about 54% [2][5]. - The general public budget expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget growth rate of 4.4% [3][4]. Government Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, with net financing of government bonds reaching 48,500 billion yuan in the first four months, an increase of 35,800 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - Local government bond issuance totaled approximately 35,354 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 84%, the highest in recent years [6][9]. Economic Support Measures - The fiscal expenditure has been directed towards social security, employment, and education, with social security and employment spending around 17,000 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, and education spending approximately 15,000 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [4][5]. - Infrastructure investment has shown stable growth at 5.8%, supported by the acceleration of local government special bond issuance [4][5]. Future Outlook - The central government has indicated a need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the acceleration of local government special bonds and long-term special bonds [9][12]. - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will continue to be a crucial support for economic resilience in the second quarter, with potential for new debt policies to be introduced later in the year [12][13].