Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Market Analysis - Multiple countries and regions have increased tariff frictions and imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, leading to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [4]. - China's steel industry holds an important position globally, with its crude steel output accounting for about 55% of the world's total in 2024, and has long accounted for over 50% [4]. - China's steel exports continue to show a growth trend. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and the billet export volume increased significantly [4]. - The export of high - value - added products in China has increased significantly. From January to July 2025, the export volume of thick plates and large - section steel increased by 10.7% and 38.9% respectively year - on - year [4]. - The structure of China's steel exports has changed. The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased [5]. - China's steel exports to North America and some countries that have imposed additional tariffs have continued to shrink, while exports to emerging economies have maintained growth [5][6]. Strategy - Pay attention to changes in steel export regions and objectively evaluate the resilience of China's steel exports and consumption [7]. Summary by Directory Preface - China's steel exports show strong resilience and adaptability. Facing challenges from anti - dumping investigations in traditional markets, China has accelerated the exploration of emerging markets, and the Belt and Road Initiative has provided strategic support [14]. Part One: Anti - Dumping Investigation on Chinese Steel Exports by Some Countries and Regions - Since 2025, economies such as India, the EU, the US, and Vietnam have launched anti - dumping investigations or made anti - dumping rulings on various high - value - added steel products from China, which may lead to a new round of adjustment in the global steel trade pattern [15]. Part Two: China's Crude Steel Output Holds an Important Position Globally - China's crude steel output reached a record high in 2020 and decreased in 2021 and 2022. In 2024, it was 1.005 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. China's crude steel output accounts for over 50% of the world's total [18][19]. Part Three: China's Steel Export Volume Continues to Show a Growth Trend - Despite the challenges of global trade protectionism and anti - dumping measures, China's steel export volume has continued to grow. From January to July 2025, the total steel export volume reached 67.98 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.4%. The export of high - value - added products has also increased significantly [26][37]. Part Four: Changes in China's Crude Steel Export Structure - The export volume of billets and large - section steel has increased significantly, while that of medium - thick wide steel strips and cold - rolled thin wide steel strips has decreased, indicating a shift from pursuing quantity growth to structural optimization [41]. Part Five: China's Steel Exports Are Shifting to Emerging Markets - China's steel export destination is shifting from traditional developed markets to emerging markets. Exports to North America have decreased, while exports to Africa, Southeast Asia, and South America have increased [49]. Part Six: Conclusion - Multiple countries and regions have imposed additional tariffs on Chinese steel products, and the global steel trade pattern is facing a new round of adjustment. China's steel industry holds an important position globally, and its steel exports continue to grow. The export structure is changing, with a shift towards emerging markets [83][84].

Core Points - The trade negotiations between Brazil and the United States have reached a stalemate, with Brazil facing significant tariff increases from the U.S. [1][2] - The U.S. has imposed a 40% tariff on Brazilian imports, raising the total tariff rate to 50%, making Brazil one of the most affected countries by U.S. tariffs [1] - Brazil's response includes a legal challenge at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and a commitment to defend its sovereignty against U.S. actions [2][3] Trade Impact - The total trade volume between Brazil and the U.S. is projected to be approximately $91.5 billion in 2024, with the U.S. being Brazil's second-largest trading partner [2] - 36% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. will be impacted by the new tariffs, particularly in sectors like coffee, steel, agricultural machinery, and meat products [2] - If the tariffs are fully implemented, Brazil's export revenue could decrease by approximately 10 billion Brazilian Reais, and economic growth may slow by 0.16% to 0.3% in 2025 [2] Government Response - Brazil's government is implementing emergency policies to stabilize the economy, including a "Sovereignty Plan" to support exporters and maintain employment [4] - The plan includes providing approximately 30 billion Reais (about $5.5 billion) in preferential loans to affected exporters and tax incentives for impacted companies [4] - Brazil aims to diversify its export markets, focusing on the EU, Asia-Pacific, and BRICS countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [5]

【环球时报记者 倪浩 环球时报驻德国特约记者 昭东】在美国小额包裹关税豁免政策暂停前夕，多国暂 停向美发送包裹。各国邮政公司纷纷表示，目前美国海关政策不明，给全球物流带来"重大影响"。接受 《环球时报》采访的专家认为，美国政府取消"小额豁免"的做法"只算小账，不算大账"，短期来看美国 消费者将受到冲击，长期来看，加征关税将推高美国通胀，并进一步影响美国经济。 多国暂停向美国发送包裹 8月29日起，美国将暂停小额包裹关税豁免，全球多国邮政宣布暂停向美国邮递包裹。美媒称，这不仅 给全球物流运输带来混乱，还意味着美国消费者将无法及时收到包裹，甚至可能需承担80美元或更高的 关税。 据美国《华盛顿邮报》23日报道，法国、德国、英国、比利时等十多个欧洲国家的邮政运营商已表示， 在明确如何应对美国关税政策之前，暂停部分对美包裹邮递业务。据德国《南德意志报》报道，自22日 起，德国邮政和DHL将不再接收商业客户寄往美国的包裹，只有价值不超过100美元的私人礼品包裹才 能运往美国。比利时邮政自上周六起暂停向美国邮递包含货物的包裹。法国邮政也在声明中称，25日起 将暂停向美国寄送包裹，价值低于100欧元的私人礼品包裹除外。 在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trade dispute between Brazil and the United States has escalated, with Brazil facing significant tariff increases from the U.S., leading to heightened market anxiety and a potential economic impact on Brazil [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Increases and Economic Impact - The U.S. has raised tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50%, making Brazil one of the most affected countries by U.S. tariffs [1]. - Brazil's exports to the U.S. are projected to decrease by approximately 10 billion Brazilian Reais (around 1.9 billion USD) due to the new tariffs, with a potential reduction in economic growth of 0.16% to 0.3% by 2025 [2]. - 36% of Brazilian products exported to the U.S. will be impacted, particularly coffee, steel, agricultural machinery, and meat products [2]. Group 2: Brazil's Response and Strategies - Brazil has initiated a dispute resolution process at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the U.S. tariffs, claiming violations of multiple trade agreements [2]. - The Brazilian government is committed to defending national sovereignty and has received increased public support for its stance against U.S. tariff policies [3]. - Brazil is likely to pursue a dual strategy of negotiating with the U.S. for broader exemptions while simultaneously advancing its case at the WTO [3]. Group 3: Emergency Measures and Future Trade Policies - The Brazilian government has launched the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" to stabilize the economy, which includes providing approximately 30 billion Reais (around 5.5 billion USD) in preferential loans to affected exporters [4]. - Brazil aims to diversify its export markets, focusing on the EU, Asia-Pacific, and BRICS nations to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [5].

Group 1 - Recent high-level interactions between China and India indicate a warming relationship, with Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar visiting China for the first time in six years, followed by a return visit from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to meet Prime Minister Modi [1][2] - Modi's upcoming visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit marks his first visit to China in seven years, drawing significant international attention [1] - The backdrop of this visit is the increasing tension in US-India relations due to high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods, including a 50% tariff on certain products and additional taxes on Indian purchases of Russian oil, leading to strong discontent in India [1][2] Group 2 - Chinese Ambassador to India, Xu Feihong, criticized the US as a "bully" for using tariffs as negotiation tools, expressing China's support for India, which may set the tone for the upcoming summit [2][5] - Despite China's supportive stance, India may remain cautious in its strategy towards the US due to limited leverage, as the scale of US imports from India is relatively small and many products have alternative sources [6] - India lacks strategic countermeasures like rare earths, where China holds a dominant position, making it difficult for India to impose significant constraints on the US [6] Group 3 - India and the US have deep strategic cooperation, as evidenced by the Quad security dialogue involving India, the US, Japan, and Australia, indicating India's important role in the Indo-Pacific strategy [6] - The development of China-India relations will follow their inherent logic, with both countries having broad common interests in economic development, regional stability, and global governance reform [7] - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin provides a platform for further cooperation, particularly in areas like counter-terrorism, energy security, and infrastructure connectivity [6][7] Group 4 - Challenges remain in improving China-India relations, including unresolved border disputes and ongoing geopolitical competition [7] - The ability of India to navigate pressures from the US while seeking balance with China will depend on comprehensive considerations of its national interests [7] - Strengthening cooperation between China and India aligns with the fundamental interests of both nations and contributes to the overall rights of developing countries, promoting a more equitable international order [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the insights of Robert Lighthizer, the former U.S. Trade Representative, on the trade war and its implications for American workers [3][4][10] - Lighthizer criticizes the previous U.S. trade policies that overly emphasized free trade and efficiency, leading to significant job losses in the manufacturing sector [25][29][33] - The article highlights the negative impact of outsourcing manufacturing jobs, which resulted in a loss of 5 million manufacturing jobs in the U.S. from 2000 to 2016 [29][33] Group 2 - Lighthizer argues that the U.S. has been too lenient in trade negotiations with countries like India and China, leading to unfavorable outcomes for American workers [18][19] - The article points out that the U.S. has a long-standing trade deficit, which Lighthizer believes is unsustainable and must be addressed [38][40] - The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the risks of over-reliance on foreign manufacturing, particularly in critical sectors like medical supplies [41][42] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of stable, high-paying jobs for maintaining personal dignity and societal stability [44][46] - Lighthizer advocates for trade policies that prioritize job creation and support for American workers, rather than solely focusing on efficiency [43][45] - The new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is presented as a model for future trade agreements, aiming to increase domestic job creation in the automotive sector [48][55] Group 4 - The article discusses the historical context of U.S. trade policies and their consequences, including the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on job losses [50][52] - Lighthizer's perspective suggests that trade can be used as both a tool for economic growth and a means of exerting pressure on other nations [68][70] - The article concludes that internal reforms are necessary for the U.S. to address its economic challenges, rather than relying solely on external trade conflicts [86][90]

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 is 5.4%, significantly higher than the negative growth in the U.S., yet China's GDP share of the U.S. has decreased from a peak of 77% to around 60% [1][5][18] - The total GDP for China is approximately $9.19 trillion, while the U.S. GDP stands at $14.93 trillion, indicating a widening gap [5][28] Statistical Methodology - The U.S. employs a "quarterly annualized rate" method for GDP calculation, which can exaggerate short-term economic fluctuations [7][9] - In contrast, China uses a year-on-year growth rate, which reflects a more stable growth trend [9][11] - If China's data were calculated using the U.S. method, its growth rate would be 4.8%, surpassing the U.S. by 5 percentage points [9][11] Manufacturing and Industry Performance - China's manufacturing value-added is 1.67 times that of the U.S., showcasing a robust manufacturing sector [20] - In the automotive industry, China's annual production reached 30.16 million vehicles, approximately 2.8 times that of the U.S. [20] - China has established a comprehensive automotive industry ecosystem, from steel production to sales networks [22] Trade and Export Dynamics - China's exports of new energy products surged by 28%, with significant contributions from electric vehicles, solar components, and lithium batteries [22][24] - Exports to countries along the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 7.2%, indicating a diversified market strategy [24] Domestic Consumption - China's retail sales exceeded 10 trillion yuan, reflecting strong consumer purchasing power across various sectors [26] - The country's foreign exchange reserves remain above $3.2 trillion, providing economic stability [26] U.S. Economic Challenges - The U.S. GDP for the first quarter of 2025 was approximately 53.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3% [28] - The trade deficit reached a historic high of $162 billion, exacerbated by panic buying due to tariff policy uncertainties [28][30] - The U.S. economy is heavily reliant on consumption and services, leading to a hollowing out of the manufacturing sector [30][32] Policy Implications - The U.S. has resorted to tariffs as a solution to economic issues, which has led to adverse effects on the economy and consumer prices [32][41] - The logistics sector has been severely impacted, with significant declines in cargo volumes at major ports [34][35] - Consumer dissatisfaction is rising due to increased costs from tariffs, leading to public protests [37][39] Conclusion - The contrasting economic trajectories of China and the U.S. highlight the importance of sustainable growth strategies versus short-term statistical manipulations [47][49]

Group 1 - The expansion of the steel and aluminum tariff list by the U.S. has significantly impacted global trade, leading to a sharp decline in export volumes for countries reliant on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S. [2] - Major U.S. steel producers, such as Cleveland-Cliffs, reported a loss of $470 million in Q2 this year and have shut down three facilities due to the increased tariffs [2] - The automotive industry is facing increased costs, with estimates suggesting that the doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs could raise the cost of each vehicle by approximately $400 [2] Group 2 - The trade protectionism approach taken by the U.S. is seen as a misguided strategy that exacerbates existing issues rather than resolving them, with calls for increased investment in technology and innovation within the steel and aluminum industries [1][3] - The higher tariffs are expected to lead to increased manufacturing costs for companies like Caterpillar, which reported an 18% year-over-year decline in operating profit for Q2 2025 due to these tariffs [2] - The beer industry is also affected, with Anheuser-Busch indicating that the rising costs of aluminum can imports will result in an 8% increase in beer prices [2]

最近的国际贸易圈可真是十分热闹！半个月之前，石破茂与特朗普达成了贸易协议，可谁也没有料到，后来事情会发生如此大的转折。那份被外界当作"缓 和剂"的协议，转眼之间就成了废纸一张。 而美方这一番操作，简直就是"挖坑绊人"。当初许下的"关税减免"承诺，不仅没兑现，反倒越加越多。 让华盛顿没有想到的是，一向低调的石破茂这次竟然如此强硬。在一场记者会上，他掷地有声地表示，任何把汽车产业排除在外的协议，都不符合日本的根 本利益。 当然，石破茂的底气也不是凭空而来，就像之前所说的，汽车产业对于日本经济来说就是"顶梁柱"，汽车行业直接或间接地解决了日本大约560万人的就业 问题。 从零部件供应商到销售网络、从研发中心到生产基地，形成了一条庞大的产业链。每年汽车产业的起伏都会给日本GDP带来0.6%左右的涨跌。 于是，东京方面在发现协议执行与预期存在巨大差异后，也一改以往的忍让态度，采取了出人意料的措施。 七月初，美日"关税争端"持续升级，美方最终实施了"三重关税组合"措施。 首先，是10%一视同仁的基础关税，这还勉强算是国际贸易的"惯例"；接下来的24%惩罚性关税，显然是有针对的；最后的25%汽车关税，直接"掐"到了日 本经 ...

政策转往往会催生出新格局，在加拿大政府宣布对中国电动汽车加征100%关税的那一刻起，加拿大作 为中国主要油菜籽供应国的地位就已经面临威胁。 中国海关数据显示，7月份中国从加拿大进口的油菜籽同比下降55%，至17.3万吨，为2023年7月以来的 最低水平。这些进口货物的价值也同比暴跌49%，至1.0206亿美元。 事情的起因是加拿大单方面的贸易保护主义行为。在中国需求暴跌之前，加拿大宣布自2024年10月1日 起对中国电动车、钢铝产品加征高额关税。而为了回应加拿大的这一"行为"，中方于今年3月份决定对 加拿大农产品征收高额关税，其中包括对油菜籽征收100%的关税。 加拿大曾是中国最大的油菜籽进口来源国。 官方数据显示，2023年和2024年，加拿大供应了中国全部 的油菜籽进口。但现在，中国已经开始探索其他选择。 一直以来，澳大利亚都不是中国主要的油菜籽出口国，主要是因为其产品未能满足中国的进口标准。官 方数据显示，中国上一次大规模采购澳大利亚油菜籽是在2021年1月，当时进口了9.31万吨油菜籽，价 值4165万美元。 相比之下，欧洲才是澳大利亚油菜籽的最大市场。在过去12个月里，欧洲市场占澳大利亚出口的 63 ...