研究所 延续低位反弹，关注需求恢复情况 ——国信期货纸浆周报 2025年5月18日 3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 本周纸浆期货主力合约SP2507延续反弹，略有回落。 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 卓创资讯监测数据显示，截至5月15日，本周进口针叶浆周均价6028元/吨，较上周上涨1.14%，由跌转涨；进口阔叶浆周均价4213元/吨，较上周上涨 0.91%，由跌转涨；进口本色浆周均价5420元/吨，较上周下跌0.61%，跌幅较上期收窄0.03个百分点；进口化机浆周均价3842元/吨，较上周持平，由跌 转稳。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 研究所 二、基本面分析：纸浆进口量增加 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年4 ...

近两周，国内废钢价格先扬后抑，商家操作较为谨慎，基地库存保持低位，钢企到货及消耗量都有不同 程度的下降。重点钢企废钢平均采购价格与前一期相比，重型废钢价格下调4元/吨，中型废钢价格下调 13元/吨，统料废钢价格下调8元/吨。 "五一"假期期间，建筑钢材交易略显冷清，下游需求仍较疲软，废钢市场同样表现平淡，社会有效流通 资源依然偏紧，使得部分钢企到货量不及消耗量，库存下降明显，对废钢价格形成支撑。但受市场行情 影响，钢企调价十分谨慎，叠加使用废钢冶炼较铁水仍无明显的性价比优势，废钢涨价动力不足，钢企 多采取稳价观望、低库存运行的策略应对市场的变化。综合来看，预计短期国内废钢市场稳中盘整运 行。 华南地区废钢价格涨跌互现，电弧炉钢企亏损，钢企减产意愿增强，废钢需求减少。三钢闽光 （002110）重型废钢采购价为2430元/吨，上调30元/吨；韶钢重型二类废钢不含税到厂价为2310元/吨， 下调40元/吨；鞍钢联众一级碳钢废钢(剪切料)采购价为2490元/吨。 西南地区废钢市场持稳运行，市场资源紧缺，钢企到货情况一般，部分钢企开始减产。重钢重型废钢不 含税价为2150元/吨；昆钢压块废钢采购价为2350元/吨。 西 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 16 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪趋弱，钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价高位回落，录得 1.15%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需格局尚可，但鉴于需求面临季节性走弱，高供应下需求转弱 则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存低位，短 期走势延续低位震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.95%日跌幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷供应高位回落，而需求有所好转，供需格局有所改善，叠加市 场情绪回暖，热卷价格低位回升，且海外风险暂缓，基本面维持良好局 面，短期走势相对偏强运行，关注需求表现情况。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 铁矿石：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.95%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，铁矿石供需格局有所变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求开始回落，利 好效应不强，且供应维持高位，基本面表现弱稳，预计矿价转为震荡运 行态势，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a clear divergence, with financial stocks leading the decline and dragging down the index, while small and medium-sized stocks are showing signs of recovery [1] - The overall market is weak, with trading volume shrinking to over 800 billion, and this trend has persisted for nearly 20 trading days, indicating a significant volume divergence [2] - The pressure at the 3400 level is substantial, with the index having attempted to break through this level five times since October 8 of the previous year, each time with greater volume but ultimately failing [2][3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock index has entered a previous resistance zone after a significant rise, suggesting a high probability of subsequent fluctuations and adjustments [3] - The current short-term technical indicators suggest that the index has not yet shown a clear end to its corrective phase, necessitating a defensive strategy to protect capital [3] - The critical support level to watch is 3352, as this area represents a concentration of positions for both retail and institutional investors, making it crucial for market stability [3]

下周究竟是反攻一举夺回3400点，还是继续下杀回补3320点缺口？唐梓耿认为，第一个先从市场的大环 境来看，对岸的金毛终于妥协了，市场最大的靴子落地，而咱们昨天也进行了大放水，万亿的筹码马上 就会进入市场，这都是源源不断的增量。之前市场最难的时候缩量都跌不下去，那接下来如果说放量的 话，会不会直接原地起飞呢？第二个，今天指数跌破5日均线，并不能说明行情已经结束，只是指数反 弹遇到压力正常回调，并且盘中的数次回调都有神秘资金在低吸，即使权重集体下挫，小票却扶摇直 上，说明目前资金并没有大规模的离开市场，而是在市场之间不断的做高低切。第三，今天是股指期货 交割日，早盘空头最后挣扎而已，看大盘60分钟级别，kd指标已到下轨，金叉反转，信号将至，一哥预 判这里洗盘即将结束，下周三个交易日内必站稳3400点，继续向上拉升，主力洗盘到位，坐等新一轮涨 势。一哥可以明确告诉大家，这波行情3400点只是小打小闹，更高更广的星辰大海，值得期待。 （原标题：和讯投顾唐梓耿：又是震荡拉扯，大决战时刻来临，周一是走还是留？） 5月16日，和讯投顾唐梓耿分析，今天大a直接低开迎来了实质性的调整，纵然指数大跳水，股民依旧满 屏红光，只要 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 双硅库存压力较大，价格承压难有起色 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 研究员:王福辉 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 数据来源：同花顺 瑞达期货研究院 数据来源：同花顺 瑞达期货研究院 4 图1 工业硅主力合约期货价格 图2 多晶硅主力合约期货价格 「 期现市场情况」 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅收跌1.15%，市场在经历上周下跌后，本周继续下跌，但是跌幅收窄，主要原因来自于进入丰 水期，工业硅成本继续下滑，而当下现货价格已经跌破成本，多数企业无复工复产意愿，工业硅基差走弱，现货价格 下滑，后续预计产量继续下滑，对价格整体有所支撑，本周多晶硅收跌2.59%，下游抢装节点结束，后续订单逐步减少， 周中传出消息头部企业联合去产能，但是目前仍未有明确，多晶硅上半周在反弹短线突破20日均线后，承压下滑，最 后整体价格空头占优，使得价格整体收跌。 u 行情展 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. For corn, although the pressure on the import side has decreased due to the non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn, the expected increase in the US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and concerns about long - term import pressure may restrict prices. In the domestic market, the situation varies by region, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year. For corn starch, the supply pressure has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate of enterprises, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory remains high [7][8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [7] - **Market Review**: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Market Outlook**: The non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn reduces import pressure, but the expected 18 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season restricts prices. In the domestic market, the situation in the Northeast and North China - Huanghuai regions is different, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [8] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term participation [11] - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [12] - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of corn starch is weak, the operating rate of enterprises has decreased, the supply pressure has declined, but the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory remains high. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 7 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 1353678 lots, a decrease of 145730 lots compared to last week. The 7 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 215408 lots, a decrease of 24779 lots compared to last week [18] Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 124594, and last week it was - 176092, with a decrease in net short positions. For corn starch futures, the net position of the top twenty was - 3506, and last week it was - 9414, also with a decrease in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 201942 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 26620 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of May 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 7 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2880 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the 7 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 115 yuan/ton [36][40] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 16 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 72 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 7 - month contract of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 436 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of May 15, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2468.89 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2374.31 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 94.58 yuan/ton. In the 20th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 160 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - As of May 9, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 143.9 tons, a decrease of 6.40 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 1.4 tons, a decrease of 2.10 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 421.6 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 53.7 tons, a decrease of 26.00 tons week - on - week [50] - As of May 15, the national farmers' grain sales progress in 13 provinces was 97%, 3% faster than the same period last year, and the sales progress in 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year [65] - In March 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a decrease of 163.00 tons (95.32%) compared to the same period last year, and the same as last month [69] - As of May 15, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.20 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [73] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million heads, a decrease of 27 million heads month - on - month [77] - As of May 9, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head [81] - As of May 15, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 60 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 928 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 568 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [85] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of May 14, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 452.8 tons, a decrease of 8.45% [89] - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 58.83 tons, a decrease of 4.84 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 29.58 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 57.17%, a decrease of 5.74% compared to last week. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons compared to last week, a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [93] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of May 15, the main 2507 contract of corn fluctuated and closed lower, with the corresponding option implied volatility at 9.73%, a decrease of 0.43% from 10.1% the previous week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [96] 5. Representative Enterprise - The report presents the PE(TTM) analysis of Beidahuang (600598.SH), including current value, standard deviation, percentile, etc. [97][98]

Core Viewpoint - The current market adjustment may present significant mainline opportunities once the adjustment phase concludes, with a cautious approach recommended during this period [2][3]. Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a decrease in trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below its 5-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [2]. - The market structure shows a clear weakness in heavyweight stocks, while small and mid-cap stocks are showing signs of weak recovery [2][3]. - The trading volume for the day was 1.12 trillion, which is below the average of the past 5 and 10 days, suggesting a lack of momentum [2][4]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index has confirmed a downward trend by breaking below the low of the significant bullish candle from May 14, indicating a potential for further declines [2][3]. - The 60-minute chart shows a double death cross, indicating a need for technical recovery, with attention on the gaps below for potential upward movements [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed near its 10-day moving average, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR Market Index are also trading below their 5-day moving averages, reflecting overall market weakness [4][5]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to wait for the daily indicators to recover before making significant moves, as the current market conditions are complex and uncertain [5]. - Short-term traders may consider opportunities if the market shows signs of recovery near the gap levels, while more conservative investors should remain cautious [4][5].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 天然橡胶市场周报 4 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶期货利好情绪集中释放。进口胶市场报盘重心上移，贸易商交投氛围一 般，国产天然橡胶市场价格重心上调，期货盘面震荡走高，现货价格跟随盘面上调，持货商挺价 报盘，下游谨慎刚需采购，场内实单交投一般。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区逐步开割，近期云南产区多阴雨天气，原料产出较少，收购价格坚 挺；海南产区降水天气扰动持续，割胶工作开展不佳，新鲜胶水产出偏少，市场原料流通量表现 紧张，为保证正常生产所需，部分加工厂抢夺胶水情绪升温。上周青岛现货总库存延续小幅累库， 海外前期混合转标胶货源集中到港入库，保税库存累库较为明显，而下游企业基本消耗库存为主， 采购较为谨慎，进而使得青岛仓库整体出库率环比下降。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用 率环比大幅提升，多数半钢胎企业已恢复至常规水平但整体出货偏慢，库存延续增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not diminished the bullish sentiment in the gold market, indicating continued interest and potential opportunities in commodity trading [1] Group 1 - The live analysis by senior futures researcher Leo focuses on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures commodities [1] - Insights will be provided on the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future price movements [1]