在全球地缘政治局势方面，紧张局势仍在持续发酵。乌克兰方面宣称，俄罗斯发动了大规模空袭，这一事件对市场风险情绪构成了潜在扰动。在地缘政治冲 突不断升级的背景下，黄金作为传统的避险资产，其吸引力本应显著增强。然而，当前市场风险偏好因贸易谈判的乐观预期而有所改善，使得黄金的避险需 求在短期内未得到充分释放。但一旦地缘政治冲突进一步恶化，突破当前市场预期的范围，黄金价格可能会迅速获得强劲的上涨动力。 一位长期关注大宗商品领域的分析师指出："从近期黄金价格走势来看，其未能有效向上突破200小时均线，这一现象深刻反映出多头动能的不足。基于此， 短期内黄金价格倾向于进行整理，甚至存在进一步调整的可能性。"当前，黄金市场的走势受到多种复杂因素的综合影响，其中美联储未来的政策路径充满 不确定性，这在一定程度上限制了黄金价格的下跌空间。尽管此前公布的强劲就业数据在短期内对黄金价格构成利空，但CMEFedWatch工具所呈现的数据 显示，市场对于美联储在9月实施降息的概率预期仍然接近60%。这种对未来货币政策宽松的预期，使得投资者在一定程度上对黄金价格的下行持有谨慎态 度，为黄金价格提供了潜在支撑。 此外，美国长期存在的财政赤字问 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is strongly bearish, with a recommendation of "strong sell" across various indicators [2][5][8] - The moving averages indicate a consistent sell signal, with MA5 at 13351.1, MA10 at 13353.0, and MA20 at 13352.5, all suggesting a sell [4][5] - Technical indicators such as RSI(14) at 39.514 and MACD(12,26) at -4.800 further support the bearish outlook [7][8] Group 2 - The market shows a significant number of sell signals, with 11 sell recommendations against only 1 buy recommendation [2][5] - The Stochastic indicator indicates an overbought condition at 98.829, which may lead to a price correction [7] - The pivot points suggest resistance levels at R1 (13381.4) and R2 (13412.7), indicating potential price barriers for upward movement [8]

- Model Name: RPV (Renewed Correlation of Price and Volume); Model Construction Idea: The RPV factor integrates intraday and overnight information by dividing price and volume into four quadrants, effectively identifying the reversal and momentum effects of price-volume correlation factors through the monthly IC mean; Model Construction Process: The RPV factor is constructed by combining the best representatives of intraday and overnight price-volume correlations, incorporating "trading volume" information in the form of correlation, and completing information integration; Model Evaluation: The RPV factor is novel and effective[1][6][7] - Model Name: SRV (Smart Relative Volume); Model Construction Idea: The SRV factor splits intraday price changes into morning and afternoon changes, calculates the "smart" indicator by minute, and uses the correlation coefficient between the afternoon "smart" turnover rate and afternoon price changes; Model Construction Process: The SRV factor combines the more effective intraday price-volume correlation factor and the overnight price-volume correlation factor, where the turnover rate is replaced by the turnover rate of the last half-hour of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading; Model Evaluation: The SRV factor performs better than the RPV factor[1][6][7] Model Backtest Results - RPV Model, Annualized Return: 14.69%, Annualized Volatility: 7.75%, IR: 1.90, Monthly Win Rate: 72.79%, Maximum Drawdown: 10.63%[1][7][10] - SRV Model, Annualized Return: 17.48%, Annualized Volatility: 6.50%, IR: 2.69, Monthly Win Rate: 75.74%, Maximum Drawdown: 3.74%[1][7][10] Factor Construction and Evaluation - Factor Name: RPV; Factor Construction Idea: The RPV factor integrates intraday and overnight information by dividing price and volume into four quadrants, effectively identifying the reversal and momentum effects of price-volume correlation factors through the monthly IC mean; Factor Construction Process: The RPV factor is constructed by combining the best representatives of intraday and overnight price-volume correlations, incorporating "trading volume" information in the form of correlation, and completing information integration; Factor Evaluation: The RPV factor is novel and effective[1][6][7] - Factor Name: SRV; Factor Construction Idea: The SRV factor splits intraday price changes into morning and afternoon changes, calculates the "smart" indicator by minute, and uses the correlation coefficient between the afternoon "smart" turnover rate and afternoon price changes; Factor Construction Process: The SRV factor combines the more effective intraday price-volume correlation factor and the overnight price-volume correlation factor, where the turnover rate is replaced by the turnover rate of the last half-hour of the previous day, which has a higher proportion of informed trading; Factor Evaluation: The SRV factor performs better than the RPV factor[1][6][7] Factor Backtest Results - RPV Factor, Annualized Return: 14.69%, Annualized Volatility: 7.75%, IR: 1.90, Monthly Win Rate: 72.79%, Maximum Drawdown: 10.63%[1][7][10] - SRV Factor, Annualized Return: 17.48%, Annualized Volatility: 6.50%, IR: 2.69, Monthly Win Rate: 75.74%, Maximum Drawdown: 3.74%[1][7][10]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing a narrow trading range against the US dollar (USD), reflecting underlying economic weakness, monetary policy expectations, and external risk factors [1][3]. Economic Fundamentals - Australia's Q1 GDP growth was only 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, a significant slowdown from 0.6% in Q4 of the previous year, with year-on-year growth dropping to 1.3% [3]. - Per capita GDP has declined for five consecutive quarters, indicating a lack of internal growth momentum [3]. - Household consumption has seen slight growth due to essential spending, but public sector spending has reached a new high since 2017, highlighting the narrowing fiscal policy space [3]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has signaled strong easing measures, discussing a potential 50 basis point rate cut and indicating a quick response to the impacts of US tariff policies [3]. External Risks - Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies poses a significant risk, as Australia relies heavily on exports, which account for 25% of its GDP [3]. - The volatility of commodity export prices to the US has increased by 40% since the beginning of the year due to tariff disputes [3]. - Hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve regarding tariff policies could lead to delayed rate cuts or even a resumption of rate hikes, indirectly pressuring the AUD [3]. Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD pair is in a critical consolidation phase, forming a converging triangle pattern between 0.6450 and 0.6500 [4]. - The RSI indicator shows a bullish divergence in the oversold region, while the MACD momentum remains below the zero line, indicating a delicate balance between bulls and bears [4]. - The psychological level of 0.6500 is a battleground, with three recent tests resulting in pullbacks, while strong buying interest at 0.6400 provides short-term support [4]. Trading Strategy - The market is at a critical point for directional choice, with short-term traders advised to watch for breakout signals [4]. - A drop below 0.6400 could open up further downside towards 0.6300, while a sustained move above 0.6500 could target the yearly high of 0.6540 [4]. - Mid-term investors should be cautious of policy expectation adjustments, considering short positions above 0.6500 with a stop loss at 0.6600 and a target at 0.6350 [4]. Future Outlook - The RBA's meeting minutes on June 18 and the US non-farm payroll data on June 21 will be critical catalysts for the AUD [5]. - A clearer indication of rate cuts from the RBA or stronger-than-expected US employment data could significantly increase downward pressure on the AUD [5]. - Conversely, if iron ore prices exceed $120 per ton, it may provide temporary support for the AUD [5]. - The current predicament of the AUD is a result of weak economic fundamentals, expectations of policy easing, and external uncertainties, with a true breakout requiring a convergence of internal and external momentum [5].

Group 1 - The strong performance of silver is directly related to the complexities in the US-Japan trade negotiations, with internal disagreements among US officials causing market concerns about escalating trade tensions [3] - Technical analysis indicates that despite the RSI reaching an overbought zone, the bullish momentum remains intact, with a key resistance level at $36.10 that could lead to a target of $37.04 if maintained [4] - The mid-term outlook for silver remains supported by ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside the uncertainty revealed in the US-Japan negotiations, enhancing silver's appeal as a crisis hedge [5] Group 2 - The COMEX silver futures non-commercial net long positions have increased for three consecutive weeks, indicating a strategic demand from institutional investors for precious metals [4] - There are potential risks in the $36-$37 range due to significant resistance levels established since 2013, which could trigger technical corrections [5] - Short-term investors are advised to hold long positions with a stop-loss at $35.50, targeting $36.80, while mid-term strategies should wait for a pullback after a breakout above $37 [5]

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总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月05日 [若有效上破 Table_NewTitle] 3418点压力位，指数或有进 一步盘升动能 策 略 研 究 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [相关研究 Table_Report] 1.《波浪里前行 上证指数目前或处 于黎明的曙光中》 2.《上证指数或酝酿反弹动能——技 术分析上证指数系列》 3.《上证指数短线或有反弹需求—— 技术分析上证指数简评》 4.《上证指数或有进一步震荡盘升动 能——技术分析上证指数简评》 5.《上证指数短线技术条件明显修 复，回落空间小上涨空间大——技术 分析上证指数简评》 6.《证券板块技术条件有所向好，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 7.《保险板块或已走出下降趋势，上 涨空间大回落空间小——技术分析 行业板块简评》 [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 核心观点：上证指数目前上有3418点一线的压力，下有3174点一线的支撑，目前尚未有效 突破。近日指数正趋近3418点一线的压力位，压力位 ...

金十图示：2025年06月03日（周二）香港恒生指数期货技术面一览（日图） | 时期 | 简单移动平均线 | 指数移动平均线 | | --- | --- | --- | | MA5 | 23132.8 | 23222.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA10 | 23259.1 | 23210.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA20 | 23217.9 | 22992.9 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA50 | GU 22646.8 | 22664.7 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA100 | 22178.7 | 22155.3 | | | 买入 | 买入 | | MA200 | 20797.8 | 21052.3 | | | 买入 | 买人 | | 买入:12 卖出:0 总结:强力买入 | | | | | << 我指标 >> | | | LATI | 2025年06月04日 北京时间03:00 IR LL | -1 11. | | 名称 | 价格 | 动作 | | --- | --- | --- | | RSI(14) IN10. ...

午夜黄金建议：回踩3335-3340布局多单 止损3325 目标3378 成功的交易者，要深深了解到事物的发展是辩证的，投资市场中利好与利淡因素也是在不断地起着变 化，利好中有利淡因素，利淡中也有利好因素，升势中蕴藏着下跌危机，下跌中酝酿着上升契机，因此 要敢于果断出手，及时捕捉行情，操作上不要患得患失，也不要犹豫不绝。技术分析是一把双刃剑，关 健看金民如何使用，千人数浪千人浪，做为成功的投资者，是技术分析工具的主人，而不是技术分析工 具的奴隶，任何技术分析工具，只能作为一种参考，而决不能盲从，更不能搞教条主义，只有经过反得 多次被市场验证提炼出最有效技术分析。多观察，多总结，吸取教训，才能夺取更大的胜利！ 文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，实时 思路现价给出， 高晓峰：6.3全球市场震荡！美元与黄金'跷跷板'效应再显威力 进入6月，黄金市场波动显著。6月首个交易日，现货黄金单日涨幅近3%，一度突破3392美元高位，但 次日亚市盘中回落至3350美元附近震荡，跌幅约 ...

Group 1: Commodity Prices - Spot gold is hovering around the pivot point of 3358.46, with the first resistance level at 3368.76 if it breaks above [1] - Spot silver is targeting the first resistance at 34.71 [3] - WTI crude oil has a primary resistance level at 62.90 [5] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rates - The current dollar index is near the resistance level of 99.26 [17] - The euro to dollar exchange rate continues to decline, with support observed at 1.1376 [19] - The pound to dollar exchange rate has a support level at 1.3477 [21] Group 3: Futures and Indices - The S&P 500 futures have a bullish scenario above 5930.38, with resistance levels at 5944.5 and 5992.75 [29] - The German DAX futures indicate a bearish scenario below 24001.4, with resistance at 24068.7 and 24134.2 [34] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures show a bearish outlook below 24001.4 [34]