智通财经APP获悉，一项常用的衡量投资者情绪的指标显示，外汇期权交易员目前对美元未来一年的走势比以往任何时候都悲观。据悉，Bloomberg美元指 数一年期风险逆转指标(在期权市场上衡量一种货币买卖成本的指标)显示，看跌期权相较看涨期权的溢价达到了负27个基点——该指标转负表明交易员已经 开始支付溢价以对冲未来12个月美元贬值的风险。这一数值为有记录以来的最低水平，根据Bloomberg自2011年开始的数据，这一纪录甚至超过了五年前疫 情初期市场剧烈波动时短暂触及的水平。 随着美国总统特朗普反复无常的关税政策扰动市场，投资者对美元的看法在过去几个月持续恶化。特朗普的这些政策不仅加剧了市场不确定性，也让人对美 国政策的可预测性和经济增长前景产生怀疑。 尽管自本月早些时候中美贸易紧张局势暂时缓解以来，美元的跌势已有所减缓，但彭博美元现货指数在2025年迄今仍下跌超过6%，为该指数自20年前推出 以来最糟糕的年初表现。该指数周二连续第二个交易日下跌，下跌幅度为0.2%。 嘉信理财首席固定收益策略师Kathy Jones表示："美元的结构性看跌观点仍然存在，因为来自贸易问题的喘息只是暂时的。" 当前进一步加剧看空美 ...

智通财经APP获悉，北美一季度财报季中，美元贬值成为为数不多的意外利好。与年初金融机构普遍预 测相悖，彭博美元指数近月来持续走弱，年内累计跌幅已超6%，创下20年以来最差表现。市场分析指 出，美国关税政策不确定性引发的资金外流，是本轮美元承压的核心动因。 但汇率影响呈现结构性分化特征。德国软件巨头SAP警示，随着美元对冲合约到期，2026年以美元计价 的利润将承压。这种分歧折射出企业套保策略与收入地域结构的差异——美元走弱对进口成本高企的企 业构成利好，却会侵蚀出口导向型公司的利润空间。 彭博行业研究首席外汇策略师奥黛丽·柴尔德-弗里曼指出，尽管5月中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，但"美 元仍面临关税政策持续扰动、双边资本流动波动等结构性利空"。 汇率波动直接改写跨国企业盈利剧本。Meta Platforms(META.US)与微软(MSFT.US)等科技巨头最新财报 显示，外汇波动将带来数亿美元额外收入;麦当劳(MCD.US)修正业绩指引，称美元贬值将使每股收益增 加5美分，与此前预估的20-30美分负面影响形成反转。宝洁公司(PG.US)披露，外汇因素对全年收入的 冲击较年初预测缩减三分之一至2亿美元;爱彼迎( ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar may further depreciate following the G7 meeting, as global leaders discuss exchange rate policies as part of trade negotiations with the US [1][3] - Citigroup analysts suggest that while Washington is unlikely to actively pursue a weaker dollar, the currency will eventually depreciate as the US reaches agreements to lower tariffs with its trade partners [1] - The focus on exchange rate policy has intensified ahead of the G7 meeting, with officials from South Korea and Taiwan indicating discussions with the US on this topic [1] Group 2 - Citigroup expects that Treasury Secretary Yellen will not seek a comprehensive agreement to suppress the dollar like the 1985 Plaza Accord, but will emphasize the role of central banks in exchange rate issues [3] - Analysts believe the risk of dollar depreciation is increasing, as the motivation for maintaining a strong dollar policy will diminish with the removal of high tariffs [3] - Since the announcement of high tariffs in early April, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined by 4%, leading to uncertainty about US policy and damaging confidence in the dollar and other US assets [3]

Core Viewpoint - Citi Group anticipates a potential further decline in the US dollar as global leaders discuss exchange rate policies during the G7 meeting, with expectations that the US may not actively seek a weaker dollar but could see it depreciate as trade agreements are reached [1] Group 1: G7 Meeting and Currency Policy - The G7 meeting has brought exchange rate policy to the forefront, with discussions expected to include currency valuation as part of trade negotiations [1] - South Korean officials have indicated ongoing discussions with the US regarding currency issues, while Japan's finance minister is set to meet with US Treasury Secretary Yellen to address similar topics [1] Group 2: Implications for the Dollar - Citi's strategists speculate that the US may request other countries to appreciate their currencies as part of tariff reduction negotiations, with Japan and other East Asian nations likely targets [1] - The report suggests that the US Treasury Secretary will not pursue a comprehensive agreement like the 1985 Plaza Accord to weaken the dollar but will emphasize the role of central banks in exchange rate matters [1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Dollar Index - The US dollar index has declined by 4% since early April, coinciding with the announcement of high tariff policies that caused global market turmoil [2] - Ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs has led to skepticism about US policies, negatively impacting confidence in the dollar and other US assets [2]

Group 1 - Citigroup Inc. predicts that the US dollar may further decline following the G-7 meeting, as global leaders discuss exchange rate policies in trade negotiations with the US [1] - The bank's strategists believe that the US will not actively pursue a weak dollar policy, but the dollar will depreciate as agreements to lower tariffs are reached with trade partners [1] - Overall risk is tilted towards dollar depreciation, with expectations that the motivation for maintaining a strong dollar policy will weaken as high tariff policies are reversed [1]

Group 1 - The report from Bank of Singapore indicates that despite easing US-China trade tensions, the US economy's uncertain growth outlook and high fiscal deficit continue to exert structural depreciation pressure on the US dollar [1][2] - The report forecasts that the euro may rise to 1.23 against the dollar and the dollar may fall to 132 against the yen in the next 12 months due to weak economic conditions and reduced asset allocation by non-US investors [1] - The effective average tariff rate in the US has decreased from approximately 18% at the beginning of the year to nearly 8%, but remains significantly higher than the 2% to 3% levels seen before 2018 [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy are reflected in rising long-term Treasury yields, with government debt as a percentage of GDP returning to levels seen during World War II [2] - The forecast for the USD/CNY exchange rate has been adjusted from 7.40 to 7.10, reflecting improved US-China relations, although China is unlikely to favor a rapid appreciation of the yuan [2] - The report highlights the accumulation of risks associated with the US twin deficits (fiscal and current account), suggesting that unless US bond yields rise further, the dollar may struggle to attract sufficient external capital to maintain exchange rate stability [2]

英国央行货币政策委员丁格拉：我的假设是，美元贬值不会对英国进口价格造成巨大压力。 ...

期货热点追踪 美豆价格小幅上涨，美国中西部降雨预报与美元贬值角力，USDA作物生长报告或成行情翻盘关键。 相关链接 ...

Market Overview - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 has raised concerns about US debt, leading to a rise in 30-year US Treasury yields to 5% [2] - The downgrade is attributed to the growing US budget deficit, which shows no signs of narrowing, and has triggered fears in the bond market [2][3] - US stock index futures fell following the downgrade, with the S&P 500 index futures dropping by 1.2% [3] Economic Policies - The Trump tax reform bill has advanced in the House of Representatives, with a key committee approving it, potentially leading to a vote later this week [4] - The bill is valued at several trillion dollars, but faces opposition from conservative Republicans who demand further cuts to Medicaid [4] - Goldman Sachs warns of a potential depreciation of the US dollar due to trade tensions and economic slowdown, predicting a 10% decline against the euro and 9% against the yen and pound by Q1 2025 [4] Investment Trends - Morgan Stanley suggests that investors should buy US stocks that have declined due to the credit rating downgrade, as the trade truce with China reduces recession risks [3] - Emerging market stocks are gaining attention from Wall Street investors, with predictions of a shift towards these markets for the next bull market, as they are expected to outperform US stocks in the coming years [5] Company Performance - Sohu reported Q1 total revenue of $136 million, with a net loss of $16 million, a reduction of over 20% year-on-year [6] - Niu Technologies achieved Q1 revenue of 682 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.1%, with a significant rise in global vehicle sales [6] - Nvidia's CEO Huang Renxun announced new AI products at Computex, including the next-generation GB300 system set to launch in Q3 [7] - Apple is reportedly facing significant challenges in the AI sector, which could threaten its dominance in the smartphone market [8]

Group 1 - The recent negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul ended without any ceasefire agreement, highlighting the increasing tensions and unrealistic demands from the Russian side [1][2] - Ukraine's President Zelensky is actively engaging in "telephone diplomacy" with Western leaders, urging for stricter sanctions against Moscow if Russia does not accept a proposed 30-day ceasefire [4][2] - The geopolitical tensions are driving investors towards safe-haven assets like gold, as evidenced by the simultaneous rise in gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a shift towards hard assets amid concerns over dollar depreciation and debt risks [4][2] Group 2 - Current silver prices are experiencing volatility, with support levels identified around $31.80 and resistance at $32.45, indicating a potential trading strategy of long positions at support and short positions at resistance [7][4] - The U.S. dollar index is showing signs of a corrective rebound, with a key resistance level at 100.00, suggesting cautious trading strategies in the current market environment [7][4] - The overall market activity is decreasing, and investors are advised to approach trading with caution, particularly in light of the uncertainties in the international gold market [7]