3. 流动性盛宴与"去美元"实质化，黄金牛市有望延续。 核心观点 公司是一家快速成长的国际化黄金生产商，主要在全球范围内从事黄金的采、选和销售业务：公司在全球范围内运营6座黄金矿山和1座多金属矿山，矿山 版图主要位于中国、东南亚与西非等地区。其中、公司旗下吉隆矿业、五龙矿业、华泰矿业和锦泰矿业是国内的黄金矿山，专注于黄金采选业务；瀚丰矿 业是国内的多金属矿山，聚焦锌、铅、铜、铝等多金属的采选；位于老挝的控股子公司万象矿业以金、铜矿的开采和冶炼为核心；位于加纳的控股子公司 金星瓦萨主营黄金采选；位于老挝的勐康稀土矿专注于稀土资源的开发。此外，公司控股子公司广源科技属于资源综合回收利用行业，专注于废弃电器电 子产品处理业务。根据公司2024年年报披露，公司自有矿山共计拥有黄金资源量390.1吨、铜资源量10.3万吨、铅资源量2.5万吨、锌资源量55.4万吨、铝资 源量7.9万吨、稀土资源量6.4万吨REO。 【报告导读】 金价上涨驱动公司业绩大幅增长：随着公司收购海外矿山矿产金产量的逐步释放，以及2022年后黄金价格进入新一轮牛市的影响，公司营业收入与归母净 利润都出现了明显的增长。公司营业收入从2020年的45 ...

此外，中金公司研究部大类资产配置研究员李昭表示，财政与货币因素持续叠加，让投资者对美元体系 与美元资产的信心下降，导致美元进入贬值周期，今年美元指数已经下跌10%左右。另外，近期委内瑞 拉局势升级叠加俄乌冲突陷入谈判僵局，全球地缘风险升级，也使得具有避险属性的黄金相对受益。 宏源期货分析师王文虎指出，本轮黄金牛市除了短期看涨情绪的释放外，也有中长期宏观经济周期的支 撑。从经济学来看，当前全球经济处于康波周期萧条阶段，在这个阶段，全球主要国家债务膨胀的预期 增强，引导信用货币本位向金属货币本位回归。 来源：滚动播报 （来源：邯郸晚报） 2025年12月29日伦敦现货黄金在创下历史新高后跳水，收盘报4331.96美元/盎司，较上日跌4.4%。分析 师表示，短期金市可能仍会获利回吐，但支撑本轮黄金牛市的中长期因素仍在，预计2026年黄金价格可 能突破5000美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，金价的回调并不意味着本轮黄金牛市结束，本轮黄金牛市背后的三重支撑因素——美联 储重启宽松周期、美元信誉下降以及全球地缘政治风险升级依然存在。 市场对美联储货币政策的宽松预期是近期金价大涨的主要驱动因素。2025年9月以来，美联储已经连 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is reported at $3759.40 per ounce, with an increase of $11.27 or 0.30%, and the daily high and low were $3734.55 and $3734.28 respectively [1] - The gold market experienced a significant upward trend since November, reaching a historical high of $4550 before a sharp decline due to increased margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, resulting in a drop to a low of $4275, a decrease of $275 [2] - The weekly chart indicates substantial selling pressure above, suggesting that the market may need to adjust, but gold remains in a bull market, with any adjustments seen as a precursor to further increases [2] Group 2 - The key resistance level for gold is identified at $4400, which has been emphasized as a critical point for potential upward movement [2] - Current short-term support is noted at $4300, which has shown strong resilience, indicating a potential for the bull market to continue if this level holds [2] - A downward breach of key support levels could lead to a significant weakening of the market, extending the adjustment period [2]

Group 1 - The current gold bull market is under discussion, with potential price targets of $5000 or $6000, and RMB gold prices possibly reaching 1200 or 1300 [1] - The US dollar has declined by over 8%, and further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could lead to a more significant drop by 2026, which would benefit non-USD currencies, particularly the RMB [2] - The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chair is crucial, as a more aggressive monetary easing policy could further suppress the dollar and boost the gold and silver markets [2] Group 2 - The ongoing power struggle between the President and the Federal Reserve is expected to intensify, especially with the upcoming elections and the limited time frame of the current administration [3] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have shown a significant drop from $4550 to around $4300, with current trading between $4400 and $4300 [4] - The gold market is experiencing a typical adjustment phase, with key resistance at $4400, indicating potential opportunities for future buyers [6]

格隆汇1月1日｜银价2025年累计升幅近1.5倍，创有史以来最大年度升幅，因供应短缺、工业和投资者 需求上升等推动升势。金融畅销书《货币战争》作者里卡斯(James Rickards)近期在媒体访问中预期，金 价2026年底前有望冲上一万美元，白银亦可能上望200美元。里卡斯称当前黄金牛市背后的传统驱动因 素，即各国央行的需求和相对停滞的供应，在2026年相当长一段时间内依然有效。 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold prices fell on the last trading day, but for the entire year, they rose by 64%, marking the largest increase in 46 years since 1979 [1] Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, increasing geopolitical risks, and central banks' accumulation of gold [1] - Continuous inflows into gold ETFs have also contributed to the upward momentum in gold prices [1] Group 2: Future Predictions - James Rickards, author of the financial bestseller "Currency Wars," predicts that gold prices could reach $10,000 by the end of 2026, with silver potentially rising to $200 [1] - The traditional drivers of the current gold bull market, such as demand from central banks and relatively stagnant supply, are expected to remain effective for a considerable time into 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing short-term pressure from bears, leading to a decline in prices, particularly after breaking below the October high of $4381.44, which may result in significant losses for aggressive traders who anticipated a breakout [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the long-term bullish context, gold prices are expected to undergo several months of consolidation before resuming an upward trend, despite recording a substantial annual increase of approximately 65% in 2025, marking the best annual performance in over 40 years [2] - The market is currently in a correction phase after a steady rise throughout the year, with prices accelerating towards the end of the year before stabilizing [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, fundamental factors supporting gold prices are anticipated to regain momentum, including the actual impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts, expectations of new monetary easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases, and inflows into gold ETFs [2] - Although rate cut expectations provide support, the market widely recognizes that gold is in a bull market, which may hinder the ability to replicate last year's remarkable price increases [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have also fallen below the short-term 50% Fibonacci retracement level, transforming the $4350.27-$4381.44 range into a resistance zone, with traders targeting the mid-term 50% retracement level of $4211.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4174.88 as a support area [3] - The 50-day moving average is crucial as it has guided gold prices higher since mid-August; a significant drop below this average could shift market sentiment from "extremely bullish" to "moderately bullish" [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are showing strong resilience above $4,300 per ounce, indicating the strongest annual cycle since 1979 with an approximate 66% increase, suggesting the onset of a major cycle [1] - GTC ZEHUI Capital believes that the current rise is not merely speculative but a result of profound changes in global financial fundamentals, with 2025 expected to be a "breakout year" for this transformation [1] Group 1 - The market is undergoing a "structural shift" that is fundamentally altering the investment landscape, with energy accumulation leading to potentially disruptive impacts once released [1] - Central banks have been consistently increasing their gold holdings since 2022, creating a solid physical bottom for the market, which is rare in previous economic cycles [1] - This structural demand from official institutions not only provides hard support for gold prices but also positions them to challenge the $5,000 mark in the coming year [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding "overbought" conditions and "bubbles" should not equate high prices with exhausted momentum; the upward trend is expected to continue despite entering a potential bubble zone [2] - Structural inflation factors, such as de-globalization trends and increased trade friction, are difficult to eliminate and contribute to the ongoing market dynamics [2] - GTC ZEHUI Capital suggests that the Federal Reserve's optimistic expectations regarding inflation may be overly idealistic, as traditional bond assets lose their safe-haven appeal due to negative real returns [2] Group 3 - Gold's role has evolved from a "hedging tool" to a "core allocation asset," as the Fed's attempts to control yields through balance sheet adjustments may not restore long-term confidence in monetary stability [2] - The $5,000 price target is seen as achievable by 2025, representing a phase in a long-term bull market for gold, with inevitable healthy corrections along the upward path [2] - Gold's strategic value is being rediscovered in the market as an essential component of diversified asset portfolios, with GTC ZEHUI Capital committed to monitoring global macro trends for investment opportunities in the gold market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 510 billion to 520 billion in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of about 60% compared to RMB 320.51 billion in 2024, setting a historical record for the company [3][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2025 represents an increase of approximately RMB 189 billion to 199 billion, with a growth rate of about 59% to 62% year-on-year [3]. - The company's net profit per day in 2025 is estimated to be nearly RMB 1.4 million [3]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be around RMB 475 billion to 485 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately RMB 158 billion to 168 billion, or a growth rate of 50% to 53% [3]. Group 2: Production Growth - The significant increase in net profit is attributed to a rise in the production of key mineral products, with gold production expected to reach approximately 90 tons in 2025, up from 73 tons in 2024 [3][4]. - The production of copper and other major products also saw growth during the reporting period [3]. - The equivalent lithium carbonate production is projected to be about 25,000 tons in 2025, a substantial increase from 261 tons in 2024 [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, Zijin Mining has set production targets of 105 tons of gold, 1.2 million tons of copper, 120,000 tons of equivalent lithium carbonate, and 520 tons of silver, although these figures are subject to change based on market conditions [5]. - Research institutions remain optimistic about the gold market in 2026, with expectations of continued price increases driven by factors such as declining real interest rates and central bank purchasing behavior [6][7].

14只商品型黄金ETF全部涨超56% 6只黄金ETF规模破百亿元 今年以来一路涨不停的黄金在12月底再度数次创出新高。12月29日，伦敦现货黄金盘中一度突破每盎司4550美元，大大刷新10月底每盎司4381美元的高点。 潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 12月31日A股刚收盘，杭州90后投资者周先生看了看他的黄金ETF，"真不错，今年半路上车，也赚了5万多元，这个黄金ETF是我今年最好的投资。" 回望2025年，现货黄金从年初的2620美元/盎司起步，到12月29日的4550美元/盎司高点，一年大涨超60%，并创下50多次历史新高。 "几乎每天都能看到黄金的新闻、热搜，涨也好，跌也好，我当时就在想，怎么样也跟随黄金牛市去赚点投资收益。"周先生说，借道黄金ETF，成为很多像 他这样普通投资者配置黄金的选择。 投资者的选择没错，在现货黄金大涨带动下，今年14只商品型黄金ETF大涨近60%，6只黄金股ETF则全部涨超86%，而赚钱效应又吸引投资者涌入，使得 今年黄金ETF规模扩张明显。 Wind数据显示，截至12月31日收盘，全市场已有6只黄金领域ETF管理规模突破百亿元，头部产品年内实现快速放量。业内人士认为，黄金在美 ...