Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a "preventive rate cut" approach to a "wait-and-see" stance, leading to increased uncertainty in short-term policy paths [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the October meeting, amidst a complex backdrop due to the U.S. government shutdown affecting key employment data [2] - The decision reflects a proactive approach to mitigate potential job market downturns, despite stable private sector employment indicators [2][3] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve are growing, with some members advocating for more aggressive cuts while others suggest pausing [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The market's expectation for a December rate cut has decreased from 82.4% to 63.8% following the October meeting, indicating a shift in sentiment [1] - The upcoming December decision will heavily depend on employment and inflation data post-government shutdown, with a focus on whether job market indicators show significant improvement [1][3] - Recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions may alleviate inflationary pressures from tariffs, presenting a potential positive factor for the economy [3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve announced it will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, as liquidity tightening signals have emerged in the U.S. money market [4] - Since the initiation of balance sheet reduction in June 2022, the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by $2.2 trillion, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to approximately 21% [4] - The dollar index has shown signs of a rebound, and with the Fed's hawkish signals, market volatility risks are expected to increase, potentially impacting metal prices and emerging market assets [5]

转载自 申万宏源宏观 ，仅供参考。 10月例会决议:降息25BP,缩表将于12月结束 10月例会声明认为,今年通胀有所上升,就业增长放 缓;10月例会下调FFR目标区间至[3.75%-4.00%],理- 事米兰、堪萨斯联储主席施密德投下反对票,前者倾 向降息50BP,后者倾向不降息;10月例会决定将于12 月起停止缩表。 | 首体 内容 | 2025年10月 | 2025年9月 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 增长 现有指标显示,经济活动扩张速度适中(moderate pace) | | | | | 上半年经济活动出现放缓 (moderated) | | 物价 | 自年初以来有所上升(moved up),并某种程度上 (somewhat) 保持高位 | 有所上升(moved up),并某种程度上(somewhat)保持 = 同V | | 二六年 | 保持低位;近期更多指标与这些进展相符 | 今年就业增长放缓, 失业率小幅上行 (edged up) 但截止8月 就业增长放缓, 失业率小幅上行 (edged up) 但保持低位 (remains low) | | 风险 | 的风险(both s ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are strong differences within the Federal Reserve, and the threshold for a 12 - month interest rate cut is significantly raised, the three interest rate cuts implied by the September dot - plot within the year are still the benchmark scenario, and there is still a high possibility of an interest rate cut in December [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to understand "12 - month interest rate cut is far from a certainty"? - **Internal division in the Fed**: After recent interest rate cuts, the policy rate has entered the estimated neutral interest rate range (2.6% - 3.9%). There is a growing call within the Fed to "wait at least one cycle" to observe the effects of previous policies. There are significant differences among Fed officials in economic forecasts and risk aversion, resulting in strong division. There were two - way dissenting votes at this meeting, and 9 officials in the September dot - plot had relatively high thresholds for further collective compromise in December [2] - **Uncertainty of data suspension**: Due to government data suspension, the Fed's information acquisition is affected, and high data uncertainty is a reason for cautious and postponed actions [2] - **Stable high - frequency employment data**: High - frequency employment data is stable, showing a "very gradual cooling," providing some "comfort" for policymakers. However, the meeting statement indicates that the risk of employment decline has increased in recent months [2] - **Optimistic attitude towards inflation**: Tariffs are the main driver of current commodity inflation, with a mild impact. Excluding tariffs, core PCE inflation is expected to be between 2.3% - 2.4%, close to the 2% target. Housing inflation has continued to decline, and economic and employment market slowdowns help service inflation decline [2] What details are worth noting about the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction? - **Stopping balance - sheet reduction**: When the bank reserve scale is slightly higher than the "sufficient reserve" level, balance - sheet reduction should stop. Recent money - market signals indicate that the reserve level has reached this standard [2] - **Reshaping the portfolio structure**: After the balance - sheet reduction officially ends on December 1, the principal of the Fed's matured Treasury bonds will be rolled over through auctions, and the principal of MBS will be reinvested in short - term Treasury bonds in the secondary market, adjusting the balance - sheet structure to be mainly Treasury bonds [2] - **Future balance - sheet expansion**: After freezing the scale, non - reserve liabilities will cause the reserve balance to decline. In the future, the reserve balance needs to gradually increase again, and the balance - sheet structure will be adjusted to "closer to the duration distribution of the Treasury market" [6] How does the Fed view other current economic hotspots? - **Discrepancy between strong consumption and weak employment**: Strong consumption expenditure is the main support for moderate economic expansion, but the labor market has cooled significantly. This is mainly due to the K - shaped consumption structure. High - income groups increase spending, while low - income groups struggle. The Fed Chair's attitude towards whether the stock - market rise drives the K - shaped consumption structure is relatively neutral [6] - **AI boom**: AI investment is an important driving force for economic growth, but consumption expenditure is the core support. The overall economy has resilience even if AI investment contracts. Attention should be paid to the risk of AI - related layoffs, but it is not currently reflected in employment data. AI investment is insensitive to interest rates, and the current situation is different from the 1990s dot - com bubble [6] - **Rising sub - prime credit default rate**: The rising sub - prime credit default rate has not yet evolved into a widespread credit risk, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor it to ensure the risk does not expand [6]

美联储主席杰罗姆・鲍威尔在10月29日联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后的新闻发布会上，强烈警告市场勿猜测美联储将在12月的下次会议中降息。 美联储内部对此意见分歧显著，当天降息决定遭遇的反对票便是直接证明。鲍威尔将当前政策管理比作"在雾中驾驶"，并提及未来可能放缓降息步伐。 值得注意的是，美联储在当天召开的第二次会议上，已决定连续第二次降息0.25个百分点，而这一结果此前已被市场充分消化。真正对市场产生冲击的，是 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的表态。 他透露，FOMC内部对于12月是否进一步降息存在重大分歧，并强调该举措"并非板上钉钉"。他还表示："有时，对进一步降息采取更谨慎的态度是明智之 举。" 与上次会议相同，鲍威尔此次仍将降息决定描述为"为管控就业形势恶化风险"，但他补充道"未来政策行动会有所不同"，明确释放出"下一步举措并非对前 次行动的延续"的信号。 此外，美国政府停摆导致经济数据匮乏，也对进一步降息形成阻碍。由于就业统计数据及其他关键经济数据暂停发布，美联储只能依赖各州失业保险数据与 私营部门数据开展分析。 鲍威尔对此表达担忧："我们能察觉到经济正发生一些重要变化，但难以深入掌握经济运行的具体细节。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has decided to maintain interest rates but indicated a potential for future rate hikes if economic conditions align with expectations, shifting investor focus towards a possible rate increase as early as December [1] Economic Outlook - The BOJ's economic forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous report in July, with a slight increase in the likelihood of the baseline scenario materializing [2] - The BOJ is closely monitoring the impact of trade policies on the overseas economy and price trends, highlighting significant uncertainty in this area [2] Inflation and Wages - Core inflation is showing a moderate increase while food inflation is gradually easing; the BOJ is focused on the synchronization of wage and price increases [2] - Current wage growth is modest, but high prices for essential goods are pressuring non-durable consumption and service sectors [3] Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ has not predetermined any stance regarding the timing and feasibility of interest rate hikes, emphasizing a data-driven approach [2][4] - The central bank is committed to observing data trends before making adjustments to monetary policy [4] Currency and Trade - The BOJ is cautious about commenting on short-term fluctuations in the yen's exchange rate, emphasizing the importance of stability based on economic fundamentals [4] - The impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy is being monitored, with indications that risks may be lower than previously anticipated [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly five months, while Chairman Powell's strong policy signals have created uncertainty regarding future rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to 3.75%-4% amid a weakening labor market, but Powell indicated that further cuts in December are not guaranteed, impacting the $30 trillion Treasury market [1]. - The Fed will end its quantitative tightening (QT) operations on December 1, having removed over $2 trillion from the system since June 2022 [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, the two-year Treasury yield rose by 11 basis points to 3.6%, reflecting a significant repricing of policy expectations [1]. - Market expectations for the implied rate cut by September 2026 increased from 3% to 3.15% [1]. - The meeting's outcome deviated from initial market expectations, which anticipated a 25 basis point cut and a quicker end to QT, now accompanied by hawkish signals that may prolong selling pressure on Treasuries [3]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - There are notable divisions among Fed officials regarding the labor market risks and the appropriate level of the neutral interest rate, with some advocating for larger cuts while others suggest delaying action [2]. - Concerns about differing viewpoints among committee members have diminished as Powell's term nears its end [2].

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan's global fixed income chief, Michelle, stated that the Federal Reserve believes the neutral interest rate is closer to 3% [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's assessment of the neutral interest rate indicates a potential shift in monetary policy [1] - This perspective may influence future interest rate decisions and market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to approve a 25 basis point rate cut in its upcoming FOMC meeting, with discussions on future rate paths and the timing of ending the balance sheet reduction plan highlighting internal divisions among policymakers [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is nearly 100% as the current overnight loan benchmark rate is between 4% and 4.25% [1]. - Economists predict that the Fed will continue to cut rates into 2026, potentially lowering rates to a neutral range of 2.75% to 3% [3]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - There are significant divisions among Fed officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some advocating for immediate action while others are hesitant [2]. - The recent voting dynamics show that only one member opposed the last rate cut, indicating a split in opinions on the committee [2]. Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the labor market are a primary reason for the Fed's inclination to cut rates, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4]. - The lack of recent economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's ability to make informed decisions regarding employment and inflation [4][5]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Management - The Fed is expected to signal the nearing end of its quantitative tightening process, which involves allowing maturing securities to roll off its $6.6 trillion balance sheet without reinvestment [5]. - There are indications of liquidity tightening, prompting expectations for a statement regarding the conclusion of the balance sheet reduction [5].

摩根大通表示，本周的日本央行会议将是对其独立于政治影响的考验。基于预期的经济基本面，该行长 期预计日本央行将在本周加息。 然而小摩认为，高市内阁——已将对抗通胀作为其经济政策的首要任务——不太可能强力干预日本央行 的个别政策决定。事实上，迄今为止新政府的沟通都遵循了《日本银行法》，传递出"具体政策决定将 交由日本央行"的信息。这反映出，可能进一步加速通胀的日元贬值已不再符合新政府的意愿。 此次会议比市场目前的定价所反映的更具"实时性"。在9月会议上投票支持加息的日本央行理事会成员 高田(Takata)和田村(Tamura)，自那时起在其沟通中持续倡导尽早加息。甚至此前被视为鸽派的野口 (Noguchi)也发表了关于加息的积极言论，这与7月会议纪要显示有五位理事提到需要及时加息的情况一 致。 如果值田和男提议维持利率不变，可能会遇到相当数量的反对票。这意味着，即使日本央行本周维持利 率不变(与小摩的预期相反)，加息也不太可能被推迟到明年。 如果小摩的预测正确，日本央行决定在本周加息，那么注意力将转向日本央行关于中性利率的沟通。行 长植田和男早前曾表示，如果未来利率上调至0.75%，他将解释中性利率的概念。该行预 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley questions Powell's neutral interest rate assessment, warning that further rate cuts could lead to inflation if monetary policy does not effectively restrain economic growth [2] Group 1: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - Dudley suggests that if the Fed cuts rates next week, it will be based on the assumption that current monetary policy is restrictive and suppressing economic growth, a view he believes carries risks [2] - Powell argues for a neutral monetary policy, citing recession risks in the labor market, which he believes offset inflation risks from rising import tariffs [2] - The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model predicts a 3.8% growth rate for Q3, higher than the previous estimate of 3.0%, contradicting the notion of a restrictive monetary policy [2] Group 2: Financial Environment and Market Dynamics - The FOMC assesses the neutral interest rate (r*) based on actual interest rate effects, indicating that their median estimate of r* at 3.0% may be too low [3] - Financial conditions have significantly eased over the past year, with stock prices rising, bond yields falling, and a weaker dollar, suggesting the current financial environment is the most accommodative since April 2022 [3] - The surge in AI investments has led to a substantial increase in the market capitalization of the "seven tech giants," raising their share from about 1/5 at the end of 2022 to approximately 1/3 now [3] Group 3: Inflation Risks and Expectations - The likelihood of inflation exceeding the Fed's target for a fifth consecutive year is high, with the FOMC projecting inflation will not return to 2% until 2028 [4] - Consumer confidence surveys indicate rising long-term inflation expectations, suggesting that the Fed may need to signal that future rate cuts will not meet market expectations [4] - To better achieve its inflation and employment goals, the Fed must manage market expectations regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts [4]