各位嘉宾，大家上午好！首先要感谢证券日报的邀请，参加这个盛会。 我看了前面各位的发言都是金融界的，都从宏观的角度来谈这个问题。证券市场跟财政是密切相关的，比如说政府的债券就是证券市场底层的资产。我们国 家证券市场当前面临的一个很大的问题，就是政府债券的流动性太弱了，地方政府的债券基本是银行机构持有，持有基本不动。国债的流动性实际上也偏 低，国债收益率曲线的定价功能偏弱。 再从人民币国际化的角度来看，我们国家向全球供应的无风险资产，就是人民币资产，特别是国债是不够的。过去觉得国债就是弥补财政赤字的一个手段， 跟人民币国际化好像八竿子打不着，这是一个天大的误解。其实资本市场一个重要的风向标就是政府证券的交易，尤其是国债。大家看美国资本市场，看美 国的货币政策，都在瞄准美债短期、长期的交易价格的变化。 著名的经济金融学家黄达先生曾经说过，说财政和金融是"连裆裤"。在改革开放初期，80年代的时候就讲了这个话，我认为他讲的这个话是很有前瞻性的。 拿到今天来讲，其实财政和金融依然是"连裆裤"。但是我们现在看这条"连裆裤"的时候，主要是看两个裤脚。往下面看，看两个裤腿和裤角都是分开的，它 们没有什么关系，从整体去看，其实它 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9912, marking a significant shift in the currency's valuation and indicating a new phase of volatility in the RMB exchange rate [3]. Group 1: Drivers Behind the RMB Surge - The decline of the USD index has been dramatic, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut cycle, resulting in a total reduction of 150 basis points in 2025 and a 9.8% annual drop in the USD index, the largest since 2017 [4]. - There has been a concentrated release of corporate foreign exchange settlement demand, with an expected monthly settlement volume of over $200 billion in December, driven by export companies converting USD revenues into RMB [5]. - Economic fundamentals have strengthened, with a record trade surplus of over $1.08 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, providing a solid foundation for the exchange rate [6]. Group 2: Market Impacts - There is a new pattern in cross-border capital flows, with over 600 billion yuan net inflow from foreign capital in 2025, and daily trading volume of RMB bonds exceeding 50 billion HKD [6]. - Export companies are facing pressure due to a 6% appreciation of the RMB against the USD, which has compressed profit margins by 2-3 percentage points in sectors like home appliances and textiles [7]. - The valuation of A-shares has increased, with the MSCI China Index rising 18% year-to-date, benefiting significantly from the RMB appreciation [7]. Group 3: Future Pathways - In the short term, the RMB may continue its strong performance, with the next target being 6.95, and potential testing of the 6.90 psychological level before the Lunar New Year [8]. - In the medium term, the central bank may intervene if the RMB appreciates rapidly beyond 6.8, and there is a risk of a USD rebound if the Fed's rate cut cycle ends mid-2026 [10]. - Long-term reforms may deepen the marketization of the exchange rate, with potential adjustments to the central parity formation mechanism and an acceleration of RMB internationalization [11]. Group 4: Corporate Responses - Export companies are encouraged to adopt dynamic hedging strategies, such as using forward contracts combined with options to lock in exchange rates while retaining upside potential [12]. - Companies are advised to regionalize their supply chains to reduce reliance on USD settlements and utilize local currencies for risk hedging [12]. - Financial innovation is suggested, including the trial of "currency insurance" products to incorporate exchange rate fluctuations into supply chain financing models [12].

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2025 年 12 月 26 日 星期五 1.外汇市场迎来标志性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破"7"整数关口，为15个月来首 次，最高触及6.996。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元逼近"7"关口，最高触及7.0053，创15个月新高。 点评：中央经济工作会议提出2026年首要任务为扩大内需，其中一个核心举措为国民增收计划，十五 五规划中提到2035年我国人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平，这些都和汇率息息相关，人民币国际化推进 以及人均GDP的提升需要人民币保持一个相对强势的走势，但短期快速升值会制约当下出口，政策面需 平衡二者的关系，人民币可能从长期看会进入一个长期的升值趋势，升值速度不会过于激进且过程中 仍会是双向波动。 2.公安部联合缅甸、泰国执法部门在缅甸妙瓦底地区开展新一轮赌诈园区集中清剿行动，集中抓捕犯 罪嫌疑人。点评：东南亚的电诈产业已经成为该地区经济发展的一大阻碍，中国与东盟介入泰柬冲突 调节，双方目前正在推进停火谈判相关事宜。本次冲突除了领土之争外，柬埔寨的电诈产业也是关注 焦点，战后中国分别与泰国、柬埔寨及东盟是否深化合作，柬埔寨是否回归正常产业发展值得关注。 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing financial support for the construction of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, which is a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative, by expanding financial cooperation and creating a structured financial network with relevant countries [2][3]. Financial Support for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and several government departments have issued guidelines to accelerate the development of the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, which connects 12 provinces in western China and reaches over 580 ports in 127 countries [2]. - The corridor serves as a crucial node in the Belt and Road Initiative, linking southern China to Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, and connecting western China to Central Asia and Europe [3]. Key Measures in the Guidelines - The guidelines propose 21 key measures across six areas, including improving financial organization collaboration, building a high-quality financial system, and enhancing cross-border financial supervision [5]. - Specific measures include expanding the use of the Renminbi (RMB) in cross-border transactions and exploring international cooperation in digital finance, particularly through the use of digital RMB [5][6]. Digital Currency Initiatives - The PBOC has made progress in establishing new pathways for cross-border payments using digital RMB, aiming for faster settlement times for businesses [6]. - The guidelines emphasize the importance of expanding the geographical scope of digital RMB applications and supporting cross-border payment projects with countries like Thailand and Singapore [5][6]. Highlights of the Guidelines - The guidelines focus on regional collaborative development, addressing the common needs of various provinces while allowing for tailored financial services [8]. - They also emphasize institutional innovation to provide efficient financing and settlement services for enterprises [8]. - The integration of data flows and financial services is highlighted, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of financial services through digitalization [8]. - The guidelines reflect China's commitment to increasing openness in the financial sector, particularly in the context of international cooperation in digital and green finance [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the establishment of a newly adjusted Chief Economist Committee by the China Securities Association, which aims to contribute professional insights for the "14th Five-Year Plan" of the capital market [1][2][3] - The committee consists of over 40 top experts from the securities and fund industry, indicating a significant integration of industry intellectual resources and a commitment to enhancing the professionalism and diversity of the committee [1][3][4] - The new structure includes a Secretary-General and advisory roles, with notable appointments such as Guan Tao as the Chief Economist and Dai Yan as the Deputy Chief Economist, highlighting the committee's upgraded framework [1][4][5] Group 2 - The committee's two main missions focus on providing recommendations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and enhancing the narrative around the Chinese stock market, emphasizing the importance of rational market communication [2][8][9] - The committee aims to serve as both a policy think tank and a voice for market rationality, contributing to the stability of expectations and supporting high-quality development in the capital market [2][10] - The first meeting of the new committee discussed key macroeconomic concerns and the long-term development of the capital market, with a consensus on the importance of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" for improving market functions [8][10] Group 3 - The restructuring of the Chief Economist Committee reflects a trend where chief economists are increasingly taking on administrative roles, with nearly one-third of the members also holding leadership positions in their respective organizations [6][7] - The committee's focus on "telling the story of the Chinese stock market" elevates its role from traditional economic forecasting to shaping public perception and guiding market narratives [9][10] - The new committee is positioned to provide robust intellectual support and effective public discourse for the high-quality development of China's capital market [10]

第三，促进贸易平衡。目前我们的顺差太大了，今年已经高达1万亿美元。如此巨额的顺差是好事也是坏事。这说明中国产品的竞争力太强了。可是另外一 方面也会让我们手里积攒下大量的美元。现在适当让人民币升值，可以调整我们的贸易结构，调整进出口双向平衡。 黄奇帆说人民币十年内将升值到6.0，这事真的会发生么？为什么过去我们都希望人民币汇率稳定，现在却要推进人民币升值呢？推动人民币升值背后的动 力又是什么呢？ 对于很多不做外贸生意，或者家里人没人留学的朋友来说，大部分人都觉得汇率离自己非常远，可是实际上人民币汇率的变动，对每一个中国人都会有巨大 的影响，只要你使用人民币，那汇率变动就会影响我们每一个人。 过去我们常常说，人民币升值会导致我们出口竞争力减弱，因此过去20年，我们一直都是倡导人民币汇率稳定。不管是快速升值，还是贬值，对我们这样的 缺乏资源的出口大国来说，都是非常不友好的。快速升值会让我们出口竞争力下跌，快速贬值又会让我们进口能源跟原材料的成本上涨。 那既然汇率大幅度变动对我们影响很大，现在为何又要推动人民币升值呢？第一，推动人民币稳步上涨，可以降低能源跟原材料采购成本。虽然说人民币升 值了，我们的出口竞争力会下降 ...

加快建设金融强国是实现中国式现代化重要保障 NBD："十五五"规划建议提出加快建设金融强国，这也是五年规划历来首次。请问如何看待加快建设金 融强国的战略意义？ 岁序更替之际，启赋新章之时。 2026年是"十五五"规划开局之年。"十五五"规划建议提出加快建设金融强国，立足新的五年规划实施起 点，展望未来，加快建设金融强国应当如何推进？ 近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）对全国人大代表、清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清 华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩进行了专访，听取他关于金融强国的深度思考。 田轩表示，加快建设金融强国需以制度创新为核心，深化金融供给侧结构性改革，优化金融结构布局。 他强调，加快建设金融强国，还需持续推进利率市场化改革，完善市场化利率形成和传导机制，提高金 融资源配置效率。 田轩：建设金融强国是提升国家综合竞争力的关键举措，有助于增强我国在全球经济治理中的话语权。 通过完善金融市场体系、强化金融机构竞争力、推动金融科技创新，能够更高效配置资源，服务实体经 济高质量发展。 在"十五五"期间，金融强国建设将更加注重质量提升与结构优化，推动多层次资本市场发展，增强金融 服务普惠性。通过加强金融科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving role of the Chinese yuan (RMB) in the global financial system, highlighting its increasing significance as a currency for trade and reserves, as the dominance of the US dollar shows signs of weakening [1]. Group 1: RMB in Trade - The shift in trade practices is evident, with countries like Brazil and China moving towards direct currency settlements, reducing reliance on the US dollar [3]. - In 2023, the share of RMB in Brazil's foreign exchange transactions rose to 5.1%, indicating a growing trend of using RMB for trade settlements [5]. - A landmark event occurred in March 2023 when China National Offshore Oil Corporation completed its first LNG purchase settled in RMB, marking a significant breakthrough in the energy sector [5]. Group 2: RMB as a Reserve Currency - The RMB is transitioning from being a settlement currency to a reserve currency, with its share in global allocated foreign exchange reserves reaching 2.13% by the end of Q3 2024, making it the fifth-largest reserve currency globally [9]. - The increasing trust in RMB is reflected in its growing inclusion in the foreign exchange reserves of central banks and financial institutions [11]. - The establishment of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) facilitates RMB transactions globally, with 1,482 participants covering 186 countries and regions [11]. Group 3: Impact on Individuals - The internationalization of the RMB affects everyday life, particularly for businesses engaged in foreign trade, allowing them to mitigate exchange rate risks by quoting prices in RMB [16]. - Importers benefit from the strengthened purchasing power of the RMB, leading to lower costs for imported goods and enhancing the consumer experience [18]. - New financial products and services, such as the "Cross-Border Wealth Management Connect," enable residents to invest directly in overseas assets, simplifying the process of cross-border transactions [20].

可能很多人一听到"封关"就慌了神，觉得是要封闭起来，其实这里面藏着关乎咱们贸易格局的大门道， 甚至可能改写美元主导的结算规则。 美元结算坑太多？ 2025年前11个月咱们中国出了个大新闻，成为历史上首个前11个月货物贸易顺差突破万亿美元的国家！ 这一数据达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，已超过2024年全年创下的9920亿美元纪录。 这数据看着特提气，说明咱们的中国制造在全球都吃得开，但我寻思着，光鲜背后藏着个致命问题—— 这些钱大多是美元结算，主动权根本不在咱们手里。 哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊最近刷屏的海南封关大事。 这可不是小打小闹的风险，说白了就是两大坑：一是美国有无限印钞权，人家印钞机一开，就把咱们的 劳动成果稀释了。 二是得看美国脸色行事，它一加息，全球资金全往美国跑；一降息，咱们手里的美元资产就缩水。 而2025年12月18日海南自贸港正式封关运作，说白了就是咱们破解这个困局的关键一步棋。 一听说"封关"，好多人第一反应就是"以后去海南是不是要办证？""会不会变得不方便？"，完全想反 了！这纯属理解偏差，封关封的是海关监管边界，不是人员进出的大门。 咱们以前咋去海南旅游、办事，现在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in copper prices is driven by a complex interplay of demand and strategic financial actions rather than solely by market demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - Copper prices have skyrocketed from under $8,000 per ton to nearly $11,000 per ton in a few months [1]. - The increase in copper prices is attributed to the anticipated demand from the global energy transition, solar power plants, and AI data centers [2]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to 479,540 short tons, significantly exceeding historical levels, with an increase of over 300% from 100,000 tons at the end of last year [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Inventory Changes - The rapid increase in COMEX copper inventory is linked to the U.S. initiating a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, causing market fears of potential tariffs [5][6]. - As a result, global traders rushed to ship copper to the U.S., leading to a dramatic drop in copper inventories at the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange [7]. - This inventory shift has created a tight supply situation in Asia and Europe, igniting market panic and driving prices higher [7][8]. Group 3: Financial Manipulation and Market Sentiment - Major international investment banks have begun to promote copper as the "new oil" of the energy era, predicting prices could rise to $12,500 to $15,000 per ton [9][10]. - A significant withdrawal of 40,000 tons of copper from the London Metal Exchange has sent a strong signal to the market that copper is in high demand [11][12]. - The resulting market sentiment has led to a rapid increase in copper prices, akin to a "rocket" effect [13]. Group 4: Implications for China - China, as the largest copper consumer, relies on imports for over 80% of its copper needs, with annual consumption around 15 million tons [15]. - Rising copper prices will translate into increased costs for Chinese manufacturing, potentially leading to inflationary pressures [15][16]. - Two scenarios emerge for Chinese manufacturers: either reduce production, which could further inflate prices, or continue production at the risk of eroding profit margins [16]. Group 5: Strategic Responses and Financial Sovereignty - The U.S. strategy appears to aim at undermining China's manufacturing sector through financial manipulation rather than direct confrontation [19][20]. - The dominance of the U.S. dollar in global commodity trading allows for significant control over pricing and market dynamics [25][26]. - China is responding by promoting the use of the renminbi in copper futures trading and securing copper resources globally through investments and partnerships [28][30]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The establishment of a "petro-yuan" and "copper-yuan" system is seen as essential for reducing reliance on the dollar and enhancing China's financial sovereignty [31]. - China's advancements in manufacturing, technology, and trade position it as a formidable global player, necessitating a focus on gaining financial pricing power [34][35]. - Accelerating the internationalization of the renminbi is crucial for improving China's economic prospects and mitigating the impact of external financial pressures [36][38].