Inflation Data - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, while the core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3%, exceeding the previous value of 0.1% and the 12-month average of 0.2%[2] - Core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.2%, matching the 12-month average but lower than the expected 0.3%[2] Tariff Impact - The report indicates that tariffs are beginning to affect goods inflation, while the transmission to services inflation remains insignificant[2] - The energy component saw a month-on-month increase from -1.0% to 0.9%, primarily due to a significant rise in gasoline prices[2] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices fell by 0.4% and 1.0%, respectively, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.2%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 4.8 basis points to 4.48%, and the dollar index rose by 0.5% to 98.6[3] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have slightly decreased, with the probability of a September cut dropping from 65% to 58%[3] - The likelihood of two rate cuts within the year has decreased from approximately 93% to 76%[3] Future Outlook - The report warns of ongoing inflationary pressures in the US, suggesting that expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts should be tempered[4] - Trade negotiations are critical, with the tariff exemption period ending soon, and the market anticipates low chances of reaching agreements with most countries[4]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美国6月通胀基本延续"岁月静好"的状态，核心CPI环比增速 连续第五个月低于预期，主因租金通胀和二手车价格降温。本次偏软的核心通胀不能验证"关税对通胀 影响轻微"的猜想，事实上中信证券构建的"进口含量高的CPI"等追踪指标显示关税已初步影响到美国进 口敏感型终端消费品价格。中信证券依旧认为美国通胀存在反弹隐忧，美联储7月降息的可能性小、年 内最多降息两次，美元持续走弱的空间或较有限，美债目前的配置吸引力可能仍不太强。 中信证券具体观点如下： 美国6月总体CPI环比如期升0.3%，核心CPI环比升0.3%（低于预期的0.2%），总体CPI同比升2.7%（高 于预期的2.6%），核心CPI同比如期升2.9%。四个读数都高于前值，核心CPI环比是连续第五个月低于 预期。 本次偏软的核心通胀是件好事，但不必太为此感到高兴，其可持续性存疑。 中信证券测算如果特朗普截至7月12日的"信函关税威胁"成真，假设USMCA豁免继续适用，则美国总体 有效关税税率将从目前约13.3%的水平进一步升至约16.9%，这将抬升美国PCE平减指数约1.1%、并在 长期降低美国GDP规模0.4%。中信 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CPI report is perceived as somewhat subjective, showing slightly weaker data than some forecasts, but the impact of tariffs is expected to become more pronounced in July and August [1] Group 1 - The CPI data is slightly below expectations from various forecasting agencies [1] - The performance of commodity prices in June was relatively strong [1] - The report does not alter the fundamental views of those who believe the worst of tariff-driven price increases is yet to come [1] Group 2 - For those who think inflation transmission will be slower and less impactful due to companies striving to maintain market share in a weakening demand environment, the report also does not change their perspective [1]

Core Insights - The June CPI report is characterized by its "self-selecting interpretation" nature, allowing for varied perspectives on the data [1] - The core CPI increased by 0.23% month-over-month in June, which is the median monthly increase over the past 12 months, indicating a moderate inflation trend [1] - Most forecasters expect more significant tariff impacts to be seen in July and August, suggesting that the June report may not alter existing views on inflation dynamics [1] - The report's findings may reinforce existing beliefs about the pace and magnitude of inflation transmission, depending on the initial outlook of the analysts [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. core CPI has seen its fifth consecutive month of lower-than-expected growth, primarily influenced by declining automobile prices [1] - Prices for categories heavily impacted by tariffs, such as toys, furniture, appliances, and clothing, have shown strong performance, indicating that companies are beginning to pass higher import costs onto consumers [1] - The lower-than-expected CPI data raises questions about the extent to which tariffs introduced by Trump will affect consumer prices [1] Economic Implications - Some companies have managed to protect consumers from price increases by stockpiling inventory before tariffs were imposed or absorbing some additional costs at the expense of profit margins [1] - This unexpected data may intensify calls from Trump for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Despite some officials expressing willingness to consider a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, there remains a division among policymakers regarding whether tariffs will lead to a one-time price shock or have more lasting effects, which may result in maintaining current interest rates [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪（微信 SuperSummerSnow） 事项 6 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.8% ，彭博一致预期 5% ，前值 4.80% ；以美元计算进口同比 1.1% ，彭博一致预期 1.3% ，前值 -3.40% 。 核心观点 2 、后续出口怎么看？ 对于 7 月出口，从高频跟踪指标来看，或仍具韧性，增速可能边际放缓。区域结构上，美国的拖累或再度加剧，而东盟出口或仍保持较高景 气。再往后看，出口下行风险或在积聚 。 报告摘要 一、关税影响中国出口价格了吗？ 近期市场关注到日本汽车出口价格大幅下跌， 6 月乘用车出口价格指数相比 3 月跌 7.3% ，引发市场思考出口商是否在关税压力下主动降价出口美国，本文聚焦近 期中国的出口价格变化，主要关注四个问题： 1 ）整体来看，关税压力下中国出口价格下滑了吗？ 2 ）美国进口视角来看，从中国进口价格是否有明显下滑？ 3 ） 分行业来看，关税压力越大的行业中国出口降价越多吗？ 4 ）后续出口价格变化如何跟踪？ （一）整体来看：中国出口价格降幅在收窄 中国出口价格指数同 ...

Export Performance - In June 2025, China's export value in RMB reached 2.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, up from 6.3% in May[2] - Cumulative exports from January to June 2025 totaled 13 trillion yuan, maintaining a year-on-year growth of 7.2%[2] - Exports to Belt and Road countries amounted to 6.56 trillion yuan, growing by 10.8%[2] Trade Dynamics - The "transshipment export" strategy significantly boosted June exports, with global manufacturing PMI rising from 49.5 to 50.3[2] - Exports to non-US economies such as ASEAN, EU, and Africa increased by 18.3%, 8.9%, and 36.6% respectively, contributing 3%, 1.3%, and 1.7% to June's export growth[2] - China's exports to the US fell by 15% in June, an improvement from a 33.6% decline in May, attributed to tariff reductions following Sino-Swiss negotiations[3] Future Outlook - The export downtrend is expected to begin in July or August 2025 due to increasing tariffs and weakening external demand[4] - The US's import growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of 2025, with an estimated total import scale of approximately 4.1 trillion USD and a growth rate of about 7%[3] - The expiration of tariff exemptions in August 2025 may lead to an increase in effective tariff levels, further impacting export dynamics[4] Trade Surplus - In June 2025, the trade surplus was 114.77 billion USD, up from 103.22 billion USD in May, indicating strong support for Q2 economic growth[8] - The total trade surplus for Q2 2025 reached 2.3 trillion yuan, a 26% increase compared to Q2 2024[8] Risks - Potential escalation of Sino-US trade tensions poses a significant risk to export performance[9] - A sharper-than-expected decline in overseas economies could severely impact China's export outlook[9]

Core Insights - The upcoming June CPI data is expected to reflect the impact of tariffs, particularly on tariff-sensitive goods like clothing, but it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to take action this month [1][1][1] Economic Indicators - Economists predict a month-over-month increase of 0.3% for both overall and core CPI, compared to a 0.1% increase in May [1][1][1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 3.895%, the 10-year yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 4.432%, and the 30-year yield went up by 0.4 basis points to 4.977% [1][1][1]

Group 1: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has fallen below 97, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, while the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are at 3.88% and 4.35% respectively [1] - Global capital markets are experiencing a flight to safety, with gold prices rising by 1.92% to $3,337 per ounce, and Bitcoin surpassing $117,000, marking a new high [2] - Despite tariff concerns, the Nasdaq index has risen by 0.94%, reaching a historical high, with Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The effective tariff rate for US companies has surged from 3% to 13%, with predictions it may reach 17% [3] - 73% of S&P 500 constituents are set to report earnings in July, with expectations for earnings per share growth of only 4% [3] - The June non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the growth is heavily reliant on government sectors, indicating structural weaknesses in the job market [4] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - President Trump's tariffs are causing significant market reactions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 422 points following the announcement of new tariffs on Canada [6] - The US has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, and has also targeted Brazil with a 50% tariff on all products [6] - A temporary reprieve occurred when Brazil announced countermeasures, coinciding with the US's decision to cancel additional tariffs on China [8] Group 4: Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with differing opinions on interest rate cuts, as highlighted by the June meeting minutes showing a split among decision-makers [10] - Fed Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive, while others warn of the long-term inflationary impacts of tariffs [10] - The political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, with former President Trump publicly criticizing Fed Chair Powell and suggesting potential replacements who would favor lower rates [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - Palm oil futures in Malaysia may face pressure due to potential production growth in July, with a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures are influenced by Malaysian palm oil trends. For soybean oil, although the USDA report adjusted the data, the impact on prices is limited. Domestic soybean oil inventory is increasing, and the basis quotation is under pressure [1]. Meal and Grains - The market sentiment for soybeans is pessimistic due to the USDA's report and concerns about tariffs. However, the Brazilian soybean is firm as the Brazilian premium continues to rise. In China, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is increasing, and the basis is oscillating at a low level. The soybean meal futures may have short - term upward potential [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The pig spot market is weak. Secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and market demand is weak. Although the current breeding profit has returned to a low level, there is no basis for a significant decline. The market expects a potential market in July and August, but the actual supply may increase, and the 09 contract on the futures has upward pressure [7][9]. Corn - In the short term, the corn market's weak sentiment is being released. The price decline is slowing down as the remaining grain decreases. In the medium term, the supply is tight, and the demand from the breeding industry is increasing, which will support the corn price. Attention should be paid to the auction results and subsequent supply scale [11]. Sugar - The global sugar supply is becoming more relaxed, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited, maintaining a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and it is advisable to take a bearish approach after the price rebounds [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, but high - temperature weather affects egg production. The egg price has reached a phased low, and demand may improve due to potential promotions and increased replenishment by traders. The egg price may rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited [16]. Cotton - The differentiation between the upstream and downstream of the cotton industry is intensifying. The downstream is facing difficulties, but the tight commercial inventory of cotton in the 2024/25 season before the new cotton is on the market still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate in a higher range, but there is a risk of decline if the downstream remains weak [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,240 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.12%); the Y2509 futures price was 7,994 yuan, up 8 yuan (0.10%); the basis was 236 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 7.09%). On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 34 yuan, up 14 yuan [1]. - **Palm Oil**: On July 11, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,770 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 0.34%); the P2509 futures price was 8,748 yuan, up 66 yuan (0.76%); the basis was 22 yuan, down 96 yuan. On July 14, the 09 - 01 spread was 30 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 11.76%) [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: On July 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9,610 yuan, unchanged; the 01509 futures price was 9,424 yuan, down 12 yuan (- 0.16%); the basis was 186 yuan, up 15 yuan (8.77%) [1]. Meal and Grains - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,830 yuan, unchanged; the M2509 futures price was 2,992 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.54%); the basis was - 162 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 10.96%). The Brazilian 9 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 74 yuan, up 26 yuan (54.2%) [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu was 2,550 yuan, up 20 yuan (0.79%); the RM2509 futures price was 2,659 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.99%); the basis was - 109 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 5.83%). The Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 304 yuan, up 22 yuan (7.80%) [3]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,131 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.73%); the basis was - 171 yuan, down 30 yuan (- 21.28%). The current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 3,637 yuan, up 18 yuan (0.50%); the basis was 23 yuan, down 18 yuan (- 43.90%) [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The price of the 2511 contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.29%); the price of the 2509 contract was 14,285 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.42%); the 9 - 11 spread was 680 yuan, down 20 yuan (- 2.86%) [7]. - **Spot**: The price in Henan was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Sichuan was 13,950 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; in Liaoning was 14,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Guangdong was 16,340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hunan was 14,410 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; in Hebei was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [7]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2509 futures price was 2,302 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 0.17%); the basis was 48 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 11.11%); the 9 - 1 spread was 64 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 14.67%); the import profit was 546 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.21%) [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2509 futures price was 2,647 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.34%); the basis was 53 yuan, up 9 yuan (20.45%); the 9 - 1 spread was 37 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 15.91%); the starch - corn futures spread was 345 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 1.43%) [11]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of the 2601 contract was 5,639 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price of the 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.12%); the 1 - 9 spread was - 178 yuan, up 3 yuan (1.66%) [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming was 5,905 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan (0.43%); the basis in Nanning was 243 yuan, down 7 yuan (- 2.80%); the basis in Kunming was 88 yuan, up 18 yuan (25.71%) [14]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the 09 contract was 3,602 yuan/500KG, up 22 yuan (0.61%); the price of the 08 contract was 3,461 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 9 - 8 spread was 138 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.17%) [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.72 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan (8.40%); the basis was - 740 yuan/500KG, up 192 yuan (20.59%) [16]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of the 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.07%); the price of the 2601 contract was 13,815 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 9 - 1 spread was 60 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 7.69%) [19]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan (0.12%); the CC Index of 3128B was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan (0.19%); the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan (- 0.38%) [19].