Export and Import Trends - In May 2025, China's export growth rate was 4.8%, down from 8.1% in April, while import growth was -3.4%, compared to -0.2% previously[4] - Month-on-month, exports decreased by 0.2% in May, and imports fell by 3.0%, both below seasonal levels[7] - The trade surplus slightly increased in May 2025[7] Country-Specific Insights - Exports to the US dropped significantly by 34.5%, while exports to ASEAN and Latin America also slowed to 14.8% and 2.3%, respectively[12] - Exports to other regions increased to 11.8%, up from 10.4% previously, indicating resilience in non-US trade[12] Product-Specific Performance - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant declines, while machinery and raw materials remained stable[17] - Integrated circuits and ship exports continued to perform strongly, with automotive exports showing signs of recovery[17] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Optimists believe that the decline in May's export growth is temporary, expecting a rebound in June due to reduced tariffs, while pessimists fear a significant drop in orders due to preemptive exports in April[24] - The report suggests that while export momentum may normalize, a drastic decline is unlikely, with potential further decreases in year-on-year comparisons in Q4 due to high base effects[21] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include judicial friction over tariffs that could lead to further reductions in US tariffs[26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for lower-than-expected CPI inflation data in the context of a slowing U.S. economy and manageable inflation pressures [1] Economic Indicators - Signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. are becoming more apparent, raising questions about the overall inflation outlook [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may be reflected in the upcoming CPI data, suggesting that external factors could influence domestic price levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, particularly in the coking coal sector, with fluctuations in prices and varying opinions on future performance from different institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures opened at 1345.0 CNY/ton, with a peak of 1365.5 CNY and a low of 1339.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.31% [1]. - The overall performance of coking coal is characterized by a strong upward trend, despite some pressures from supply and demand dynamics [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Guosen Futures noted that the average losses for coking enterprises have slightly increased due to three rounds of price reductions, with a small decline in operating rates and a decrease in supply [1]. - Demand is weak as steel mills reduce production during the off-season, leading to a slight decrease in iron output, which has resulted in an accumulation of coking coal inventory [1]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Nanhua Futures indicated that the recent improvement in US-China relations has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a rebound in coking coal prices, although the rebound in coking coal is weaker due to downstream price reductions [2]. - Guosen Futures also highlighted that the current cost of coking coal is between 780-800 CNY, while the cost for coking coal after three rounds of price reductions is between 1310-1330 CNY, indicating a basic recovery in price differentials [2]. - The overall supply of carbon elements remains ample, and the stable iron output above 241 suggests that there is still some support for coal and coke demand [2].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the impact of U.S. tariffs on China's export performance, particularly focusing on the electronics and integrated circuits sectors, as well as the overall trade dynamics between China and the U.S. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Exports**: U.S. tariffs have led to a significant decline in exports to the U.S., with a reported drop of approximately 35%. However, the impact has started to weaken following recent U.S.-China trade talks, leading to improvements in the unit prices of electromechanical products, which may help restore profitability [1][3][4] 2. **Strong Performance of Integrated Circuits**: China's integrated circuit exports have shown robust growth, outperforming other electronic trade economies like Vietnam and South Korea. This indicates strong demand for electronic products despite the challenging trade environment [1][7] 3. **Sensitivity of Consumer Goods Exports**: China's exports of consumer goods to the U.S. are highly sensitive to tariff changes, while intermediate goods have shown resilience due to prior experience with trade tensions and government support [4][5] 4. **Emerging Industries Resilience**: New advantage industries such as lithium batteries and new energy vehicles have experienced growth in exports to the U.S. despite high tariffs, contrasting with declines in sensitive categories like solar products and food [5][8] 5. **Changes in Export Structure**: In May, the export structure of China was influenced by electromechanical products, cross-border e-commerce, and imitation shoes and bags. The demand for cross-border e-commerce has weakened, while new advantage industries like ships, integrated circuits, and automotive supply chains have shown strong external demand [1][6] 6. **Weakening Import Demand**: In May, China's import performance was negatively affected by a decline in demand for energy and mineral-related capital goods. The demand from ASEAN and African economies has also shown significant downturns, with the demand for integrated circuits from Taiwan being a key support factor [9][10] 7. **Global Manufacturing Stability**: Recent signals of tariff easing and stabilization in global manufacturing PMI have alleviated some external demand pressures. The improvement in the new export orders PMI for China indicates a potential recovery in external demand [2][12] 8. **Future Challenges for External Demand**: Looking ahead, external demand may face downward pressure, particularly due to the front-loading of demand from export and re-export activities. The government may focus on foreign affairs to mitigate these pressures, with potential incremental policies being deployed in the latter half of the year [12][13] Additional Important Insights - The notes highlight the importance of monitoring the potential disruptions in the electronic supply chain and the overall trade environment as global economic conditions evolve [7][12] - The resilience of new advantage industries suggests a shift in China's export strategy, adapting to the complexities of international trade dynamics [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - Walmart hosted its 2025 "Employee Week" event on June 5 and 6, with store tours and management meetings, leading Goldman Sachs to issue a "Buy" rating with a target price of $101 for Walmart (WMT.US) [1] Financial Summary - Current Price: $97.47, Target Price: $101.00, Upside: 3.6% [2] - Market Cap: $780.4 billion, Enterprise Value: $816.2 billion [2] - Revenue Forecasts: - 2025: $680.99 billion - 2026: $706.10 billion - 2027: $735.97 billion - 2028: $767.74 billion [2] - EBITDA Forecasts: - 2025: $42.48 billion - 2026: $44.79 billion - 2027: $49.07 billion - 2028: $53.83 billion [2] - EBIT Forecasts: - 2025: $29.50 billion - 2026: $30.71 billion - 2027: $34.49 billion - 2028: $38.63 billion [2] - Dividend Yield: 1.1% [2] Business Growth Drivers - The grocery segment has been a key growth driver, with a 70% increase over the past 9-10 years and a 50% increase since 2020 [3] - Walmart plans to add 150 new items to its Better Goods brand, focusing on high-quality products, with 70% priced below $5 [3] - The company is capturing market share from both retailers and restaurants [3] Digital Business Insights - One-third of Walmart's orders are for "fast delivery" within three hours, indicating a shift towards delivery services over in-store pickup [4] Consumer Impact of Tariffs - Consumers have not significantly felt the impact of tariffs, with no signs of supply chain congestion reported by Walmart [5] Product Variety Enhancement - Walmart is improving the quality of its everyday products and negotiating with higher-quality brands, despite challenges due to consumer spending constraints [6] - The company is enhancing its clothing and home goods categories, with notable changes including the introduction of domestic brands and a focus on a department store atmosphere [6][7] Advertising and Revenue Sources - Walmart's advertising revenue is still low compared to Amazon, with a focus on promoting unsold products through VIZlO [8] Digital Label Implementation - By 2026, Walmart plans to roll out digital labels to all stores, which will help improve inventory turnover and display both discount and regular prices [9] Pharmacy Business Performance - The pharmacy segment is performing well, with GLP-1 drugs contributing 100 basis points to overall performance, and the company has launched a pharmacy delivery service [10] Sam's Club Growth - Sam's Club has seen a 7% increase in membership fee income and a 160% growth in delivery services, with 35% of members using the "Scan & Go" service [11]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 主要数据要点 证券研究报告 Research | Equity 王逸, CFA +86(21)2401-8930 | yi.wang@goldmansachs.cn 高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司 徐时 2025年6月4日 | 7:05AM CST 本周要点： 我们的关税影响评估（图表 1至图表 4，更多详细方法）显 示，出口依赖型城市在二手房交易和看房量方面的表现继续 领先，与其他城市的差距进一步扩大：1) 交易：出口依赖度 最高的城市在一手房市场上表现落后（总交易面积环比持 平，其他城市+7%），但在二手房市场上表现领先（环比 -10%，其他城市-19%，意味着差距为+9个百分点，而前一周 为+1个百分点，2024年以来平均为零）；2) 出口依赖型城市 的二手房看房量环比下降9%（其他城市-15%，意味着差距为 +6个百分点，而前一周为+2个百分点，2025年以来平均为 零），二手房挂牌量环比收紧5%（其他城市-6%，意味着差 距为+1个百分点，前一周/2025年以来的平均水平为+1个百分 点）。一手房和二手房市场的信心均走软，中介（中原经纪 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lululemon athletica has been a top-performing consumer stock over the last 20 years, significantly contributing to the growth of the athleisure market and becoming one of the most valuable apparel companies globally [1][2]. Financial Performance - Since its IPO in 2006, Lululemon's stock has increased approximately 1,800%, with over 300% growth in the last decade, although it has recently faced challenges, dropping 48% from its peak [2]. - In the first quarter, comparable sales growth slowed to 1%, with revenue rising 7% to $2.37 billion, matching estimates [3]. - Gross margin improved from 57.7% to 58.3%, but operating income only rose 1% to $438.6 million, with operating margin declining by 110 basis points to 18.5% due to increased expenses [3]. - Earnings per share increased from $2.54 to $2.60, slightly surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.59 [4]. Guidance and Challenges - The company maintained its full-year revenue guidance at $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, indicating a 6% growth at the midpoint, but reduced its earnings-per-share guidance from $14.95-$15.15 to $14.58-$14.78 due to tariff impacts [6]. - Second-quarter guidance also fell short, with expectations of a 160 basis point decline in operating margin, affecting earnings per share [7]. Growth Opportunities - Despite slowing growth in North America, Lululemon sees significant potential in China, where revenue increased by 21% with 7% comparable sales growth in the first quarter, accounting for 13% of total revenue last year [8][9]. - The company currently operates 154 stores in China, representing 20% of its total, with plans to exceed its initial goal of 200 stores [10]. Investment Perspective - The challenges posed by tariffs are consistent with those faced by other retailers in the apparel sector, suggesting that they may not be a major concern for investors [11]. - Following the guidance cut and subsequent stock sell-off, Lululemon trades at a forward P/E of 18, which is considered attractive given its brand strength and growth potential in China [12].

Financial Performance Overview - Total revenue for Q1 FY25 was $2.37 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 7% (8% at constant currency) [1] - Comparable sales increased by 1% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $2.60 (diluted), exceeding expectations and up from $2.54 in the same quarter last year [3] - Inventory grew by 23% in dollar terms and 16% in unit terms, primarily due to tariff-related AUC increases and currency effects [4] - The company repurchased $4.3 million in stock during the quarter, with an average repurchase price of approximately $316, leaving a remaining buyback authorization of about $1.1 billion [5] - Capital expenditures (CapEx) amounted to $152 million, mainly for business growth support, distribution center projects, new store openings/relocations/renovations, and technology investments [6] Channel Performance - Store revenue increased by 8%, with a total of 770 global stores at the end of the quarter, and sales area grew by 14% year-over-year, adding 59 net new stores [7] - E-commerce revenue grew by 6%, contributing $961 million, which accounted for 41% of total revenue [7] FY25 Full-Year Guidance Update - Gross margin is now expected to decline by approximately 110 basis points year-over-year, revised from a previous estimate of a 60 basis point decline, primarily due to tariffs and slight increases in discounting [8] - Operating margin is anticipated to decline by about 160 basis points year-over-year, revised from a previous estimate of a 100 basis point decline [9] Q2 FY25 Guidance - Revenue is projected to be between $2.35 billion and $2.56 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7%-8% [9] - Gross margin is expected to decline by approximately 200 basis points year-over-year, driven by increased tariffs, slight increases in discounting, and currency effects [10] - Selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) are expected to increase by 170 to 190 basis points year-over-year due to infrastructure and related depreciation increases, strategic investments, and seasonal increases in expenses [10] - Operating margin is expected to decline by about 380 basis points year-over-year, mainly due to a high base from the previous year and external factors [11] - The company plans to open a net of 14 new stores and optimize 9 existing stores [12] Executive Insights - The company plans to enter Italy through direct operations and Belgium and Czech Republic through franchising later this year [13] - A marketing campaign titled "Summer of Align" was launched to enhance brand awareness, resulting in unaided brand awareness in the U.S. rising from the mid-30% range in Q4 to 40% in Q1 [13]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index rose strongly by 1% on Friday, closing at 6000.36 points, marking the first time it has crossed the 6000-point threshold since February 21 [1] - The index is only 2.3% away from its all-time closing high of 6144.15 points set on February 19 [1] - After a nearly 20% decline from its peak, the S&P 500 has rebounded, recovering all losses from April due to tariff policies and is now close to breaking the 6000-point barrier [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that for the S&P 500 to break its historical high, corporate earnings expectations must be raised in line with recent market rebounds [2] - A technical analysis indicates that the 6000-point level is the upper boundary of a "three-week ascending triangle" pattern, and if the index can close above this level, it may test the historical high of 6150 points in the short term [2] - There are concerns among analysts that a significant reversal near the 6000-point mark could lead to fears of "lower highs," increasing the risk of a pullback to the mid-5500 range [2]

Core Insights - Lululemon's FY25Q1 earnings call revealed a 160 basis point decline in profit margin guidance for the year, primarily due to the net impact of tariffs and a slight increase in discounts [1][2][4] - The company plans to implement strategic price increases on a small percentage of products to mitigate tariff impacts, alongside efficiency measures in procurement that will take effect in the second half of the year and continue into 2026 [1][2][4] - New product trends show balanced introductions and updates in lifestyle and athletic categories, with the daydrift pants performing exceptionally well and Loup gaining popularity [1][2] Financial Performance - The company maintains its revenue guidance for the year at $11.15 billion to $11.3 billion, while adjusting the operating margin guidance down by 160 basis points due to tariff impacts and increased discounts [4][18] - Store traffic has decreased from Q4 to Q1, particularly in the U.S., although conversion rates have remained stable with a slight decline year-over-year [3][5] - The first quarter saw a 1% increase in same-store sales, with the U.S. market showing a cautious outlook for the second quarter [5][9] Market Trends - The U.S. market is experiencing a more discerning consumer environment, impacting store traffic and sales performance, while the Canadian market does not show the same level of consumer caution [8][10] - In China, the company expects a growth rate of 25% to 30% for the year, despite a temporary slowdown due to the timing of the Lunar New Year [19][21] - The company has opened 154 stores in China, with plans to reach approximately 200 stores, indicating significant growth potential in the region [13] Inventory and Pricing Strategy - The company has not observed significant pricing pressure globally, with most concerns concentrated in the U.S. market, where promotional activities may increase in the second half of the year [10][15] - The average unit costs have been affected by tariffs and foreign exchange factors, with tariffs expected to have a more pronounced impact on the income statement in Q2 [15][18] - The company is adjusting procurement volumes flexibly, with about 40% of core product purchases being adaptable [11] Consumer Response and Product Innovation - The novelty level of the product assortment has returned to historical percentages, with positive consumer reactions to new core styles [12] - The company is focused on maintaining a full-price business model, emphasizing innovation and core product lines to navigate competitive pressures [10][21] - Overall, the company remains optimistic about future growth opportunities, particularly in international markets, with a goal to increase international business from 25% to a 50-50 ratio with domestic sales [21]