Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Group 1 - Gold prices have been strong in recent months, reaching a high of $3,800 per ounce due to strong demand from ETFs and global central banks [1] - ETFs have made a strong comeback, ranking among the top three in gold reserves this year, with their impact on gold prices being 50% higher compared to the period from 2021 to 2024 [1] - Central banks have been increasing their gold holdings by approximately 400 to 500 tons annually since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Jewelry demand is elastic, meaning it decreases when prices rise, and an increase in jewelry demand could negatively impact gold prices as it may require lower prices as an incentive [2] - If the increase in ETF holdings is a significant factor in gold price appreciation, a halt or reversal of these inflows could pose a downside risk [2] - Typically, when U.S. Treasury yields decline, investors are more inclined to increase their gold holdings in ETFs [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations as the National Day holiday approaches, with a cautious sentiment among investors leading to profit-taking and adjustments in positions [1][2][16] - The technology sector has shown signs of a temporary pullback, while financial and consumer sectors demonstrate resilience, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [1][2][16] Short-term Strategy - For short-term investors, it is advisable to take profits on stocks that have seen significant gains recently to mitigate holding risks [2][16] - Long-term investors should remain patient with quality companies that have solid fundamentals and clear industry prospects, particularly in the technology sector [2][16] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and robotics, is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, especially during the current market correction [2][16] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by national policies and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [10] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector remains a focus for investors, with leading companies expected to benefit from both valuation recovery and performance growth [3][9][17] - The demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy is projected to persist as global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality continue [9][17] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with new policies in major cities aimed at boosting market demand and improving the financial health of real estate companies [11] - Investors are encouraged to look for opportunities in quality companies with strong land reserves and stable growth prospects [11] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen price increases driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, making gold an attractive investment [12][13] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has experienced volatility, with recent advancements in AI technology providing growth opportunities in content production and interactive entertainment [14] Banking Sector - The banking sector is stabilizing, with high dividend yield stocks continuing to attract investor interest, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15]

Core Insights - The gold price has surged to record levels, driven by optimistic institutional forecasts and macroeconomic factors, indicating potential investment opportunities in the precious metals market [1][26][30]. Domestic Retail Market - Domestic gold retail prices show significant differentiation, with international gold spot prices at $3,761.9 per ounce, approximately ¥859.5 per gram. Major brands like Caibai and Lao Fengxiang set prices at ¥1,058 and ¥1,108 per gram respectively, reflecting competitive pricing strategies [2][3]. - The lowest price recorded was at Sun Gold Store, priced at ¥969 per gram [3]. International Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market experienced volatility on September 28, with gold prices declining to ¥3,311.86 per gram, a decrease of 1.27%. In contrast, platinum and palladium prices saw significant increases, with platinum rising by 3.03% to ¥1,176.76 per gram and palladium soaring by 5.36% to ¥1,065.20 per gram [4]. Bank Paper Precious Metals Pricing - Various banks exhibited differing price trends for paper precious metals. For instance, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reported a paper gold price of ¥863.71 per gram, up by 0.84%, while China Construction Bank's price fell by 0.51% to ¥862.66 per gram [6][7][8]. Coin Series Pricing - The 2025 Panda gold coin series pricing was detailed, with the complete set priced at ¥52,119. Individual coins ranged from ¥1,170 for a 1-gram coin to ¥480,000 for a 1-kilogram commemorative coin [14][15][22]. Price Outlook and Institutional Predictions - The gold price has seen an unprecedented rise, with a cumulative increase of over 8.5% since September, and a year-to-date increase of 38%, outperforming major global stock indices and bond yields [26]. - Key factors supporting the gold price surge include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, concerns over economic stagflation, geopolitical risks, and increased central bank gold purchases [27][28][29]. - Institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs maintain optimistic forecasts, predicting gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce in the near future, with potential spikes to $5,000 per ounce under certain conditions [30].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Gold Pricing and Trends Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the gold market, specifically focusing on the pricing dynamics and the impact of central bank purchases on gold prices and the international monetary system. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Increase**: In 2024, MEX gold and London spot gold saw year-to-date increases of 29.7% and 31.5%, respectively, with prices nearing a 40% rise by early September, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, concerns over the independence of the Fed, and worries about the sustainability of debt in Europe and the U.S. [1][2] 2. **Influence of Central Bank Purchases**: From 2022 to 2024, global central banks purchased an average of 1,060 tons of gold annually, accounting for 23% of global demand. This structural demand has pushed gold prices higher, leading to the failure of traditional real interest rate-gold pricing frameworks. [1][5] 3. **Historical Context of Gold Price Trends**: Historical data indicates that significant increases in gold prices are often linked to wars or crises, typically lasting 10-12 years. The current upward trend, which began in 2018-2019, has persisted for six to seven years, suggesting potential for continued strength in gold prices if macroeconomic conditions remain supportive. [1][7] 4. **Factors Driving Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Key reasons for increased gold purchases by central banks include declining trust in the dollar, rising U.S. debt issues, weakened economic momentum, and a trend among emerging economies to diversify away from developed economies' currencies. [1][8][10] 5. **Long-term Gold Price Outlook**: The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive due to heightened geopolitical risks, political polarization affecting trust in the dollar, and strong central bank demand for gold. [3][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Geopolitical Risks**: The rise in geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation, has increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. [12] 2. **Shift in Monetary Policy Dynamics**: The potential influence of political figures on the independence of the Federal Reserve could further impact market confidence and monetary policy, adding uncertainty to the economic landscape. [12] 3. **Gold's Role in Financial Stability**: Increasing gold reserves can enhance financial stability for countries facing geopolitical risks and systemic financial challenges, promoting a more diversified international monetary system. [11] 4. **Current Gold Reserve Levels**: The proportion of gold in central bank assets remains relatively low compared to historical levels, indicating significant room for growth as countries seek to bolster their reserves against economic uncertainties. [13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the gold market, its pricing mechanisms, and the implications of central bank behaviors on the future of gold as an asset class.

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut leads to short-term fluctuations in commodity prices, but industrial metal prices are expected to rise due to improved demand expectations during the "golden September and silver October" season [1] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index increased week-on-week, while the suspension of operations at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine exacerbates supply disruptions, tightening copper supply [1] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production sees a slight increase due to capacity replacement, with downstream companies ramping up operations in anticipation of the consumption peak [1] Group 2: Energy Metals - The Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to extend its export ban, potentially leading to a significant rise in cobalt prices, while lithium demand is strong due to seasonal factors [1] - The lithium market experiences increased procurement demand, with spot transaction prices rising as supply and demand both grow, but demand growth is stronger [1] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to domestic raw material shortages and accelerated inventory depletion during the demand peak [1] Group 3: Precious Metals - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, geopolitical tensions have increased, leading to a bullish outlook for precious metals [2] - The SPDR gold holdings have significantly increased as overseas investors accelerate their allocation to gold, driven by heightened risk aversion [2] - Long-term trends indicate that central bank gold purchases and weakened dollar credibility will push gold prices higher, presenting opportunities for investment in the gold sector [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should focus on industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are expected to rise due to supply disruptions and improved demand [3] - Energy metals such as cobalt and lithium should be targeted for potential price increases driven by supply tightening and seasonal demand [3] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, should be considered for investment due to rising geopolitical tensions and long-term bullish trends [3]

Group 1 - Global central banks have increased their gold reserves, driven by rising gold prices, with China's central bank having purchased gold for 10 consecutive months, yet still holding less than one-third of the U.S. reserves, totaling less than 2,300 tons [1] - The current ranking of countries by gold reserves shows the U.S. leading with 8,133 tons, followed by Germany with 3,352 tons, and China ranking sixth with approximately 2,264-2,296 tons [2] - The price of gold in the Shanghai market has risen by 1.03%, closing at 860 yuan per gram, indicating a sustained high level [2] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the U.S. job market faces increasing downside risks, leading to a dual characteristic of the Federal Reserve's policy path, which is pressuring the U.S. dollar index and increasing institutional demand for precious metals as a safe haven [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a cautious approach to future easing, with market interpretations remaining neutral, suggesting potential volatility in future market trends [4] - Short-term risks such as a potential U.S. government shutdown and overseas political turmoil may lead to increased volatility in gold prices, with recommendations for opportunistic buying or purchasing out-of-the-money call options [4]

来源：四川在线-华西都市报 再创历史新高 综合新华社、中国证券报 新闻分析 金价还会涨吗？ 今年以来，国际现货黄金涨幅已近43%，以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计上涨超36%。 "美联储如期降息后，市场关注点转向年内后续降息路径。"东方金诚分析师瞿瑞认为，美联储降息将直 接降低持有无息黄金的机会成本，同时打压美元指数，此外地缘冲突仍然频发，这些因素均对金价构成 支撑。 贺利氏贵金属中国区交易总监陆伟佳表示，8月份，上海黄金交易所黄金实物出库量出现逆季节性下 滑，高金价对亚洲地区黄金实物消费的抑制逐渐显现。从当月黄金ETF来看，尽管全球黄金ETF保持净 流入，但亚洲地区的投资者反而减持4.8吨，这导致亚洲交易时段黄金涨势相对乏力。 9月22日，记者对北京地区多家品牌珠宝店进行实地走访发现，临近国庆、中秋假期，不少品牌珠宝店 推出优惠活动，但优惠力度整体较小。 "最近几天，金价一直在涨。目前金价属于历史高位。国庆、中秋节假日期间会有一些额外的优惠活 动，但如果按照目前的金价计算，预计优惠完每克的价格也要在千元左右。"北京一家周大生门店销售 人员说。 从现场销售情况看，受金价高企影响，销售量整体较为平淡。"目前，每个 ...

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have reached a new historical record, surpassing $3,750 per ounce, marking the 36th closing record for gold prices this year [1] Group 1: Price Movement - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Gold prices have been supported by ongoing purchases from major global central banks and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical risks [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that despite potential short-term fluctuations, the medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive [1]

Group 1 - International gold prices reached a historic high of $3,795 per ounce on September 23, with a slight increase to $3,777.9 per ounce at the time of reporting [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices also rose, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1,100 yuan per gram, an increase of 10 yuan per gram from the previous day [2] - Stocks of companies such as Western Gold, Silver, Shandong Gold, and Zijin Mining saw an increase in share prices on the same day [4] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank attributed the record high gold prices to investor panic and concerns over significant downside risks in the stock market, viewing gold as a safe haven during times of turmoil [4] - Long-term prospects for gold prices remain positive, with analysts suggesting that the recent Federal Reserve rate cut may lead to a favorable environment for gold, despite short-term profit-taking pressures [5] - Goldman Sachs projected that gold prices could soar to $4,000 per ounce by 2026 under baseline scenarios, with potential peaks of $4,500 and $5,000 per ounce under tail risk scenarios [5]