Group 1: Profit and Revenue Analysis - In the first quarter of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of 150.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% compared to the previous value of -0.3%[1] - Total operating revenue reached 32.14 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, up from 2.8% previously[1] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises recorded 4.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17 percentage points, although it decreased by 0.16 percentage points year-on-year[2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The primary driver for the profit turnaround was a robust increase in industrial added value, which grew by 6.5% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a monthly increase of 7.7% in March[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in March fell by 2.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing price pressures that could affect profit margins[2] - The average collection period for accounts receivable increased to 70.9 days, up by 4.0 days year-on-year, which may negatively impact cash flow and economic recovery[2] Group 3: Sector Performance and Future Outlook - High-tech manufacturing profits turned from a decline of 5.8% to a growth of 3.5%, with March showing a significant increase of 14.3%[2] - Equipment manufacturing and specialized equipment sectors saw profit increases of 14.2% and 9.5%, respectively, driven by equipment upgrades[2] - The report highlights concerns about potential export declines due to tariff impacts and the need for sustained domestic economic momentum to support future growth[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the promotion of home service consumption through 12 key measures aimed at enhancing service quality and expanding supply [1][2][3] - The home service industry is recognized as a vital sector for boosting consumption, improving livelihoods, and stabilizing employment, particularly in light of the increasing demand for elderly and childcare services [3] - The projected revenue for the home service industry is expected to reach 1.16 trillion yuan in 2023 and 1.23 trillion yuan in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [3] Group 2 - Measures to enhance the quality of home services include encouraging companies to expand into new service areas and improving training and management systems [1][2] - Financial support policies are being improved to provide insurance for home service workers and to include them in social security and housing assistance programs [2] - The establishment of a national credit information platform for home services aims to enhance the credibility and standardization of the industry [2]

21世纪经济报道记者王峰 北京报道 中共中央政治局4月25日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工 作。 外部冲击影响加大，保民生稳就业显得殊为重要。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务 消费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 会议还强调，要着力保民生。对受关税影响较大的企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。 居民增收减负和稳就业，是一段时间以来既定的政策举措，并将根据外部冲击变化调整优化应对办法。 就业关乎中低收入群体的生活质量和消费能力。政治局会议指出，要着力保民生。对受关税影响较大的 企业，提高失业保险基金稳岗返还比例。 今年一季度，我国市场销售增长加快，消费活力增强。国家统计局数据显示，一季度，社会消费品零售 总额124671亿元，同比增长4.6%；服务零售额同比增长5.0%，高于同期商品零售额增速0.4个百分点。 今年3月，国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦在中国发展高层论坛2025年年会上表示，从消费内容 看，消费不足主要是服务消费不足，重点是教育、医疗、保障性住房、社保、养老等与基本公共服务相 关的发展型消费不足。 可见，服务消费一方面尚有不足，另一方面潜力巨大。而促进服务消费，重在提高居民 ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者民生宏观团队 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 陶川 邵翔 张云杰 钟渝梅 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 4月政治局会议的关键点，聚焦在"底线"和"预案"。风急浪高的外部形势更加考验政策层对 于政策节奏和力度的把握，说到底"经贸斗争"比拼的是韧性和耐力，以及随机应变的"后手 棋"，因此政策布局呈现明显的"两步走"特征： "底线"要稳、要兜牢，重点在存量政策加 速，保民生、稳就业、帮企业、化风险；"预案"要足、要"求进"，新工具、新政策、新模 式蓄势待发。 具体看来以下五大信号值得重点关注： 第一，在"经贸斗争"中比拼韧性和耐力。 这是政治局会议中首次提到"经贸斗争"四个字， 早期二十大报告中便强调过要"敢于斗争、善于斗争"，"敢于斗争"比的是耐力和底气，"善 于斗争"比的是制度自信。与2018年的首轮经贸冲突不一样的是，如今的中国能更好地用自 身的确定性去应对外部的不确定性，这从近期美国贸易不确定性指数远远高于中国就得以凸 显。 第二，政策分为"两步走"：第一步看存量政策，"要 ...

文/ 中欧国际工商学院经济学与金融学教授、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院高级学 术顾问 盛松成 稳增长政策应重视收入分配结构与促消费、稳增长的关系。在已有研究的基础 上，分析宏观收入分配结构对经济增长的影响，并针对我国居民可支配收入占 比低、再分配调节不够合理、民生领域支出有待增加等实际情况，从增加居民 部门可支配收入、提高边际消费倾向、引导需求结构向消费倾斜等方面，提出 一系列政策建议。 2024年我国顺利实现经济社会发展预期目标，全年GDP同比增长5.0%，其中四季度增长5.4%，为年内最高增速，成绩来之不易。但也要看到，很多积极 变化只是初步的，仍须夯实经济回升向好的基础。随着外部环境不确定性加大，内需重要性将更加突出，尤其是消费将在今年经济增长中扮演更重要的角 色。从2024年底召开的中央经济工作会议看，政策着力点也将更多转向惠民生、促消费。 由于居民和政府两大部门在收入分配中的份额及其消费支出在很大程度上直接决定了一个经济体的消费发展水平，完善再分配机制，可能是激发消费内生 动力、促进经济增长的一把"钥匙"。"再分配"是指政府或公共部门通过税收、社会保障、财政转移支付等政策工具，对初次分配（往往是由市场机 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 近一周，扩内需信号进一步明确，主要涉及就业、地产、股市、服务消费等。 1 、高层定调：总理在三次会议或调研上，均高度关注经济问题。 1 ） 4 月 15 日， 总理在北京调研 消费及地产相关内容。 2 ） 4 月 17 日， 总理主持国务院专题学习，以预期管理为主题，提出要"要 讲究政策时机，在一些关键的时间窗口，推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手，对预期形成积极影 响。 要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规 "。 3 ） 4 月 18 日，总理主持召开国常会，研究稳就业 稳经济问题。提出要" 锚定经济社会发展目标 ，加大逆周期调节力度"。 2 、股市楼市： 1 ） 4 月 15 日 ，总理在北京调研时提出，"当前和今后一个时期，我国房地产市场 仍有很大的发展空间"。 2 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常会，"要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产 市场平稳健康发展"。 3 、消费及就业 ： 1 ） 4 月 18 日， 总理主持召开国常 ...

文 ｜ 姜娅 刘济玮 王诗然 李振寰 服务消费一直是促消费政策的重要抓手，一方面从供给端而言，服务消费仍有扩容升级空间，一方 面从需求而言，居民在服务消费上的倾向更高，服务消费本身处于相比商品消费的更高增长阶段。 在扩内需政策预期升温的背景下，市场将服务消费作为重点支持的预期方向之一。而其中文旅产业 具有容量大、范围广、韧性高、带动强的特征，期待升温。虽然政策能否落地、如何落地尚不得而 知，但基本面而言，近期五一预订数据显示旅游需求韧性强，我们预计民航日均旅客量同比增 7 . 6%，亦有望形成情绪催化。建议积极关注酒店、景区及OTA等潜在受益的产业链环节相关标的 配置机会。 ▍ 服务消费历来是提振内需政策框架中的重要抓手。 回顾过去各种有关促消费的政策方向，服务消费一直是其中的重要抓手，一方面从供给端而言， 服务消费仍有扩容升级空间，一方面从需求而言，居民在服务消费上的倾向更高，服务消费本身 处于相比商品消费的更高增长阶段。在扩内需政策预期升温的背景下，市场将服务消费作为重点 支持的预期方向之一。近日商务部等九部门联合印发《服务消费提质惠民行动2 0 2 5年工作方案》 提出4 8条具体举措，覆盖餐饮、住宿、 ...

2025 年 04 月 20 日 社会服务业行业研究 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：叶思嘉（执业 S1130523080001） yesijia＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 餐饮社零继续提速，关注服务消费政策落地及五一带动 周观点 餐饮社零增速加快。3 月社零餐饮收入同比+5.6%（前值 4.3%），其中限额以上企业收入同比+6.8%（前值+3.6%）， 继 1-2 月后环比继续提速，其中限额以上增速为近 12 个月以来首次超过整体增速。 2025 服务消费工作方案出台。4 月 16 日商务部等 9 部门印发《服务消费提质惠民行动 2025 年工作方案》，围绕加 强政策支持、开展促进活动、搭建平台载体、扩大对外开放、强化标准引领、优化消费环境等 6 个方面，提出 48 条 具体任务举措，涵盖了餐饮、住宿、旅游休闲等主要行业领域，包括了旅游列车、空中游览等新业态、新场景。 OTA 平台数据显示五一旅游预定热度较高。今年五一假期调休天数较 24 年减少 1 天，前后拼假或更为灵活。根据携 程 4 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the home service industry is crucial for people's daily lives and is expected to enter a rapid growth phase, becoming a new engine for consumption and domestic demand expansion as living standards improve [1][2]. - The Ministry of Commerce has introduced 12 key measures focusing on four areas: improving service supply quality, promoting convenient consumption, enhancing support policies, and optimizing the consumption environment [1]. - Key initiatives include expanding the supply of quality home services, promoting brand development in the home service sector, and enhancing the skill levels of home service workers [1]. Group 2 - The home service industry plays a significant role in job creation, with plans to strengthen the branding of home service labor and cultivate influential home service brands [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes optimizing supply to better meet the demand for home services, encouraging companies to explore new specialized and personalized service scenarios [2]. - There is a focus on building a credit system for home services, collecting and publicizing credit information of home service companies, and encouraging the establishment of community service points for easier access to home services [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and creating more consumption scenarios to continuously release consumption potential, highlighting the need for high-quality supply to create effective demand [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The relationship between consumption stagnation and supply not meeting demand is noted, with a structural contradiction of excess low-end supply and insufficient high-quality supply [2]. - The article points out that while the consumption structure in China has been optimizing, there is still a significant need for innovation in products and services to meet the evolving consumer demands [2]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - As residents' income levels rise, there is a shift towards development-oriented, enjoyment-oriented, and quality-oriented consumption, indicating a need for deeper exploration of these demands [2]. - The first quarter of this year saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in per capita service consumption expenditure, which accounted for 43.4% of total per capita consumption expenditure, suggesting a shift towards service consumption as a primary development direction [3]. Group 3: Policy and Support for Innovation - The article mentions the issuance of the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" by the Central and State Offices, which aims to enhance consumption capacity through income increases and burden reductions [1]. - It highlights the necessity for enterprises to innovate in products and services to enhance competitiveness, with a call for supportive measures from relevant departments, especially for private and small enterprises [2]. Group 4: Future Directions for Consumption - The need to cultivate a complete internal demand system is emphasized, with a focus on both enhancing traditional consumption and fostering new types of consumption [3]. - The article advocates for the promotion of green and low-carbon consumption, aiming for a positive interaction between supply upgrades and consumption upgrades through targeted policies [3].