Core Viewpoint - The performance of gold in the second half of the year will be influenced by four key factors, with the potential to challenge the $3500 mark and the historical highs set in the first half of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - International gold prices rose over 1.5%, surpassing $3400 per ounce, marking a five-week high due to increased market risk aversion and weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [1]. - The dollar index fell by 0.6%, dropping below the 98 mark, while the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched a one-week low, indicating a supportive environment for gold [2]. - Concerns over U.S. debt growth and further tariff updates are drawing attention to gold as a focal point, with prices appearing well-supported [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Global central bank enthusiasm is a significant driver, as central banks have been major buyers of gold, and their purchasing decisions can quickly impact the market [4]. - Geopolitical events often lead investors to shift from stocks and bonds to precious metals, with potential crises in July being a point of concern [4][5]. - Inflation data is crucial, as any sharp changes could signal economic weakness, prompting investors to increase their gold holdings [5]. - The historical negative correlation between gold and the dollar suggests that the outlook for gold prices will be influenced by the dollar's performance, which has seen a decline of over 10% in the first half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Composite Index has reached a historic milestone by surpassing 21,000 points, driven by strong earnings reports from major tech companies and optimistic market sentiment regarding future growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - Over 85% of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations, indicating robust performance in the current earnings season [3][15]. - The "Big Seven" tech companies are expected to see a 14% year-over-year increase in earnings, while the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies are projected to have an average growth of only 3.4% [16]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 index could rise to 6,900 points in the next 12 months, supported by strong earnings and investor optimism about growth in 2026 [3][17]. Market Trends - Major tech stocks, including Google, Apple, and Meta, have shown significant gains, contributing to the overall strength of the market [7]. - The financial technology company Block's stock surged over 7% after being announced as a new addition to the S&P 500 index [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if inflation data is low, the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates, which could positively impact the mortgage market [9]. - A weaker dollar has been identified as a favorable factor for the earnings growth of U.S. companies, with a 10% decline in the dollar potentially leading to a 2-3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share [20]. Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns regarding trade policies, investors appear to be focusing on the long-term growth prospects for 2026 rather than short-term economic challenges [19][23]. - There is a general expectation among investors that the final tariff rates proposed by the Trump administration may be lower than currently suggested, which could further support market confidence [24].

Report Overview - The report is the "20250721 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report", focusing on the market conditions of copper and zinc, and also presenting domestic market basis data and LME spot premium/discount data [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market - Weekend night - session copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2] - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] Zinc Market - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed higher. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] Domestic Market Basis Data - Copper basis is 115 yuan/ton, aluminum basis is 120 yuan/ton, zinc basis is - 15 yuan/ton, nickel basis is - 1750 yuan/ton, lead basis is - 195 yuan/ton, and tin basis is 760 yuan/ton [2][3] LME Spot Premium/Discount Data - Copper LME spot premium/discount is - 53.76 dollars/ton, aluminum is - 0.78 dollars/ton, zinc is 4.75 dollars/ton, nickel is - 194.43 dollars/ton, lead is - 24.20 dollars/ton, and tin is 44.00 dollars/ton [2][5]

3. 市场关注焦点将转向本周的欧洲央行货币政策会议，经济学家普遍预计欧洲央行将维持利率不变。 4. 尽管在贸易方面有新动态、特朗普施压降息以及美国数据强劲，但黄金仍需要一个强有力的方向性催 化剂 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： FPG特约分析师（Felix）观点： 过去几个月里，做多黄金、做空美元的交易已相当拥挤。这在短期内存在风险，因为投资者在黄金上获 利了结，并回补美元空头。黄金无法大幅上涨，可能更多是因为它以美元计价，而不是黄金本身不受欢 迎。毕竟各国央行大量增持储备，以及地缘政治不确定性仍然存在金价下行空间受限 ●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 由于市场预期美联储将在整个夏季维持中性立场，美元获得了一些支撑 2. 由于美联储释放出谨慎信号——预计2025年仅降息两次——当实际收益率上升时（如近期升至 2.14%），黄金作为无息资产的吸引力受到打击 点击输入图片描述（最多30字） ●今日关键指标（事件）： 22:00 美国6月谘商会领先指标月率 待确定 中国6月全社会用电量同比 待确定 中国6月全社会用电量(亿千瓦时) 待确定 中国6月本年迄今全国发电装机容量(万千瓦) ...

Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts suggest that the short-term rebound of the US dollar will not alter the overall downtrend, as investors are likely to continue withdrawing funds from US assets, leading to a long-term weakening of the dollar [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are expected to diversify their asset allocations, reducing reliance on US assets due to policy uncertainty in the US [1] - Short-term demand for safe-haven assets may support a stronger dollar, but the overall selling trend is anticipated to persist [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment Behavior - Foreign investors are actively diversifying their investments away from US assets, indicating a shift in investment strategy [1] - The short-term rebound in the dollar is not expected to change the long-term downtrend in its value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council predicts an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with a potential rise of 20% in 2024, leading to historical highs in the first half of 2025, driven by strong investment demand amid a weak dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - Analysts expect gold prices to consolidate with a slight upward potential of 0%-5% in the second half of 2025, depending on macroeconomic conditions [1][4] - In a bullish scenario, gold could rise by 10%-15% in the second half of 2025, potentially ending the year with a nearly 40% increase [5] - Conversely, in a bearish scenario, gold prices could retract by 12%-17%, resulting in a lower double-digit or single-digit return for the year [6] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The performance of gold in 2025 has been remarkable, with a nearly 26% increase in the first half, attributed to a weak dollar, anticipated interest rate cuts, and heightened geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Increased demand from OTC markets, exchanges, and ETFs has led to a record average daily trading volume of $329 billion in the first half of the year [2] - Central banks have continued to purchase gold at a strong pace, contributing to a 41% increase in total assets under management in gold ETFs, reaching $383 billion [2] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Context - The macroeconomic outlook suggests global GDP will remain below trend, with inflation rates potentially exceeding 5% in the second half of the year [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high, contributing to a generally uncertain market environment [4][5] - The weak performance of the dollar, which has seen its worst annual start since 1973, has further enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 4: Investment Demand Dynamics - Investment demand is anticipated to significantly outpace consumer demand, especially in a risk-averse environment [5] - The current net long positions in COMEX futures indicate substantial room for further accumulation if market conditions worsen [6] - The potential for new institutional investors, such as Chinese insurance companies, could provide additional support for gold prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a slowdown in inflation, which may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and subsequently affect silver prices. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for June was below market expectations, with a month-on-month change of 0.0% compared to the expected 0.2% increase, and a year-on-year rate of 2.3%, lower than the anticipated 2.5% and May's 2.6% [3] - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also disappointed, showing a month-on-month change of 0.0% (expected 0.2%) and a year-on-year rate of 2.6%, below the expected 2.7% and May's 3.0% [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that overall inflation met expectations, but core inflation was slightly lower than anticipated, contributing to a softened outlook on aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [3] Silver Price Analysis - Silver prices opened at $37.708, reached a daily high of $38.079, and then fell to a low of $37.473 before closing at $37.897, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern [4] - The upward target for silver is to break through $39.11, which could pave the way towards $40.00, with the next resistance at $40.50 [5] - Downward support levels are identified at $37.50 (previous consolidation high), $36.82 (21-day EMA), and $36.00 (channel support) [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US economic outlook is dim, and the upward momentum of the US dollar index is insufficient, which is favorable for gold. Gold is expected to have a slightly bullish mid - term wide - range oscillation. [2] - Crude oil is in a multi - empty stalemate stage. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply situation. With OPEC+ maintaining an increasing production stance, crude oil has an expected supply increase, and it is bearish at high levels. [2] - Steel prices may have a narrow - range adjustment in the short term due to weakened downstream construction demand and cost support. [4] - Coal prices are likely to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, but the increase rate will slow down. [4] - Manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector in the short term, with limited cost support and increasing difficulty in destocking in the future. [5] - Pig prices are expected to continue a weak adjustment in the short term, and interval trading is recommended. [6] - Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long when it retraces. [7] - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and waiting and seeing or interval trading is recommended. [9] - It is recommended to go long on rapeseed meal at low prices, and pay attention to relevant policy and market changes. [10] - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing is recommended. [11] - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term, and waiting and seeing or short - term long when it retraces is recommended. [12] - For long - term national bonds, pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July. For short - term national bonds, the short - term upward momentum may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [13][14] - The upward momentum of silver weakens, and pay attention to the relationship between gold and silver prices. [14] - For PTA, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] - Natural rubber is expected to oscillate with a seasonal increase in supply and weak demand. [15] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity slightly increased, but uncertainty is high, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. The weak US economic outlook and insufficient upward momentum of the US dollar index are favorable for gold. [2] Crude Oil - In the week of July 11, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1000 barrels to 1.3375 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels. After the summer demand peak, there may be an oversupply, and OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance. [2] Steel - On July 16, domestic steel oscillated weakly. The ex - factory tax - included price of common billets in Qian'an, Tangshan remained stable at 2950 yuan/ton. Three steel mills lowered the ex - factory prices of construction steel by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. High - temperature weather affects downstream construction, weakening steel demand, but cost supports steel prices. [4] Coking Coal - The开工 rate of 110 sample coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period, and the daily average output increased by 0.79 million tons. Coal prices have risen significantly since the end of June, but downstream resistance to high - price coal and profit - taking in the trading link may slow down the increase rate. [4] Manganese Silicon - The开工 rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 40.55%, an increase of 0.21% from last week, and the daily average output increased by 310 tons. The supply of Australian ore is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon tends to be loose in the future. [5] Pig - On July 16, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.61 yuan/kg, a 0.6% decrease from the previous day. High - temperature season, high feed cost, and weak terminal demand lead to a weak adjustment in pig prices. [6] Glass - The average price of float glass is 1179 yuan/ton, the开工 rate is 75.68%, and the total inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 2.87% month - on - month. Terminal demand is weak, and the 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] Palm Oil - From July 1 to 15, 2025, the yield of palm fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 17.95%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and the palm oil production increased by 17.06%. The price is expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term. [9] Rapeseed Meal - As of the 28th week of 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed meal in major regions increased by 2.54 million tons compared with last week. The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the addition ratio in feed is low. [10] Plastic - The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7258 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly production decreased by 0.3%, and the production enterprise inventory increased by 2.62% week - on - week. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [11] Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased by 9.92% week - on - week, and the production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.46 million tons. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] National Bonds - For long - term national bonds, expanding domestic demand is emphasized, and the stock - bond seesaw and the Politburo meeting in July are key. For short - term national bonds, the central bank's net investment is favorable for the bond market, and the short - term upward momentum may be stronger. [13][14] Silver - US PPI data in June was lower than expected, weakening the upward momentum of silver. Pay attention to whether gold and silver prices move in sync. [14] PTA - The CFR price of PX is 836 US dollars/ton, and the price of PTA in East China is 4718 yuan/ton. Polyester inventory accumulates, and demand drags down the spot price. A short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended. [15] Rubber - The price of raw rubber in Thailand is 54.3 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup rubber is 48.35 Thai baht/kg. In the first half of 2025, rubber exports from Cote d'Ivoire increased by 11.8% year - on - year, while those from Cambodia decreased by 20% year - on - year. Supply increases seasonally, and demand is weak. [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The export prospects of soybeans have improved, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean futures prices, which in turn drives the rebound of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal futures. The technical aspect of DCE soybeans is strong, showing a rebound and oscillation trend [1][3]. - The trend intensity of both soybean meal and soybeans is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend in the day - session main - contract futures prices on the report day [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybeans 2509 closed at 4,179 yuan/ton during the day - session, up 36 yuan (+0.87%), and 4,189 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 23 yuan (+0.55%). - DCE soybean meal 2509 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton during the day - session, down 9 yuan (-0.30%), and 3,012 yuan/ton during the night - session, up 34 yuan (+1.14%). - CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 1,019.75 cents/bushel, up 17.25 cents (+1.72%). - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.1 dollars/short ton, up 3.2 dollars (+1.14%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat compared to the previous day, with different basis prices for different delivery months. - In East China, the price of 43% soybean meal was flat, with basis prices for different delivery months also remaining stable. - In South China, the price of 43% soybean meal fluctuated between - 10 and +10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the basis prices for different delivery months were mostly stable [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.7 million tons per day, down from 5.65 million tons per day in the previous two trading days. - The inventory of soybean meal was 84.29 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 16, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher. Private exporters reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2025/26 season, which was speculated to be China. - The US reached an agricultural trade agreement with Indonesia, which promised to purchase 4.5 billion dollars of US agricultural products, enhancing the market's confidence in future soybean export demand. - The US dollar was weak due to market rumors that Trump intended to remove the Fed Chairman, which usually enhances the export competitiveness of US agricultural products. - The overall weather conditions in the major soybean - producing areas in the US Midwest are favorable [3].