Macroeconomic Overview - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 79,000 [1] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors continue to show divergent trends, with manufacturing contracting and services expanding [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, below the expected 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52, exceeding both expectations and the previous value [1] - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant decline, with only 54,000 jobs added, falling short of the expected 68,000 and the previous 104,000 [1] Index Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 2.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 1.01% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.33% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, five sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 5.07%, while energy was the worst performer, declining by 3.52% [2][3] Investment Direction - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a surge in gold prices and volatility in U.S. equities [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly risen, with projections indicating a potential cut starting in September [4] - The upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be closely monitored as inflationary pressures remain concentrated in the fourth quarter [4] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. equity growth [4] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. equities, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization [4] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant allocation of 57.87% in the information technology sector [5] - The index includes high-quality technology companies, providing exposure to various sectors such as consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with rising yields on government bonds attributed to recent inflation data and a strong equity market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 10, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.81%, marking a return above 1.8% for the first time in five months [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield increased by over 2 basis points, reaching a new high since its issuance [1][3]. - The 30-year bond futures saw a decline of 0.82%, hitting a new low since March 24 [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in bond prices is linked to the August Producer Price Index (PPI), which fell by 2.9% year-on-year, the first contraction since March [3]. - The strong performance of the equity market, particularly since early July, has shifted investor preference from bonds to stocks, contributing to the sell-off in government bonds [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by policy expectations, liquidity, and macroeconomic data [4]. - There is speculation that the central bank may resume government bond trading operations to stabilize prices and manage interest rates, especially in the current environment where equities are performing well and bonds are under pressure [5]. - Analysts suggest that improved coordination between fiscal and monetary policies could mitigate the impact of increased government bond supply on the bond market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off, with yields on government bonds rising sharply due to inflation data and a strong equity market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 10, the yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 1.5 basis points to 1.81%, marking a return above 1.8% for the first time in five months [1]. - The 30-year government bond yield increased by over 2 basis points, reaching a new high since its issuance, while the 30-year futures contract fell by 0.82%, hitting a low not seen since March 24 [1][3]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The decline in bond prices is attributed to two main factors: the recent inflation data showing an 8-month low in PPI, which decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the strong performance of the equity market since early July [3]. - The strong equity market has led to a shift in investor sentiment, with funds moving from bonds to stocks as market risk appetite increases [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond futures market is showing a downward trend, influenced by policy expectations, liquidity, and macroeconomic data [4]. - There is speculation that the central bank may restart government bond trading operations to stabilize bond prices and manage interest rate curves, especially in the context of increasing government bond supply [5]. - Analysts suggest that improved market supply-demand dynamics could create conditions for the resumption of government bond trading operations [5].

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 979.68 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 9, spot gold prices peaked at $3675.01 per ounce, marking a new historical high, before closing at $3626 per ounce, down $9.7 or 0.27% [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Israel and Hamas, influenced gold prices, which initially surged before retreating due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data revealed a downward revision of 911,000 in U.S. non-farm payrolls, equivalent to a 0.6% decrease, marking the worst performance on record [5] - Analysts suggest that the downward revision of employment data strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders currently pricing in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold may face a correction, with potential support levels at $3600 and $3578, while resistance levels are seen at $3700 and $3750 [6]

US stocks moved higher on Monday as investors set their sights on inflation data later this week to provide a reality check on the chances of a jumbo interest-rate cut next week. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) moved up around 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed at a record high, up around 0.5% on the day. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) climbed 0.2%. The moves come after stocks finished last week on a down note. Wall Street is already looking ahead to key inflation reports later this ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market closed lower last Friday due to a weak non-farm payroll report for August, indicating a significant cooling in the job market and raising concerns about the U.S. economy [1] - Following the release of the August non-farm payroll report, the market now anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Employment Market - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, marking the weakest job market since the pandemic began [2] - Excluding healthcare, the total employment has seen negative growth for the first time in 25 years, except during recession periods [4] - The healthcare sector has been the primary source of job growth in recent months, but it is now also experiencing a noticeable decline [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Economists expect the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating limited progress in curbing inflation [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile items like food and energy, is projected to increase by 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with July's levels [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of achieving full employment and maintaining a 2% inflation rate is under pressure due to the current economic conditions [2] Consumer Sentiment - The upcoming Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index for September will provide insights into consumer psychology amid a slowing job market and uncertain inflation outlook [1] - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.32%, there is growing concern among workers about future job losses, which negatively impacts consumer confidence [4]

来源|每日经济新闻 浙商证券认为，短期内，大部分金属上涨，流动性充裕。黄金的金融属性有望进一步支撑金价上行。中期：情绪若转向，黄金是很好的避风港。若中 期其他金属走势出现转折，黄金避险价值再凸显，利好金价。长期：美元信用下行是本轮黄金大牛市的主叙事，随着后续特朗普政府的新政策，美元 信用或继续下行。 9月7日，国家外汇管理局统计数据显示，截至2025年8月末，我国外汇储备规模为33222亿美元，较7月末上升299亿美元，升幅为0.91%。 财通证券认为，特朗普罢免美联储理事，通胀数据推升降息预期。目前的数据展示出就业降温、通胀符合预期，符合美联储的降息前提，9月降息的 预期进一步升温。中长期来看，全球经济增长面临压力，关税和地缘冲突的风险并未完全消除，黄金避险保值能力长存，持续看好黄金投资机会。 2025年8月，受主要经济体货币政策预期、宏观经济数据等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素 综合作用，当月外汇储备规模上升。我国经济运行稳中有进，展现出强大韧性和活力，为外汇储备规模保持基本稳定提供支撑。 【 热门视频推荐 】 同时，9月7日，中国央行公布数据显示，中国8月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has not yet made a decision on policy actions to support at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, emphasizing the need to consider inflation data to be released next week [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee expressed a desire for more information as the meeting approaches, maintaining an open attitude [1] - The focus on inflation performance is crucial, with Goolsbee indicating that milder inflation data would allow for greater focus on the labor market [1] - Recent inflation reports have shown a rebound in service sector prices, prompting the need to confirm whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a more serious signal [1]

Macroeconomic Summary - The US July PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and previous values, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3% [1] - The core PCE for July rose by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly higher than the previous 2.8%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - Durable goods orders in July fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8% and previous decline of 9.4%, while core durable goods orders excluding transportation rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% [1] - New home sales in July decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.5% increase and previous 4.1% increase, totaling 652,000 units, which was better than the expected 630,000 units but lower than the previous 656,000 units [1] Index Performance - The S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.37% over the week, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.35% and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.10% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains, with Energy leading at 2.46% and Utilities lagging at -2.10% [2][3] Investment Direction - The Q2 GDP revision in the US showed stronger-than-expected growth driven by business investment, leading to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could catalyze a recovery trade [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have slightly increased, with a probability of 86.6% for cuts starting in September [4] - The BoShi S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a tool for domestic investors to capture growth in the US stock market, tracking the S&P 500 Index which covers over 500 representative companies [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold futures prices have strongly broken through, with London spot gold surpassing $3500 per ounce, reaching a historical high. COMEX gold futures rose by 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce, with an intraday peak above $3600. COMEX silver futures increased by 0.01% to $41.73 per ounce. Multiple institutions predict that after four months of consolidation, precious metals are likely to enter a new upward trend, with Morgan Stanley setting a year-end target price for gold at $3800 per ounce [1][2][17] - The recent actions of President Trump attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve officials have caused market unease regarding the independence of the Fed. The US Geological Survey has proposed including silver and other minerals in the 2025 critical minerals list, raising concerns about potential import tariffs on silver. The dovish stance of Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased expectations for a rate cut in September, further supporting precious metals [2][17] - The People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices. The overall market for gold and silver is expected to remain strong as the Fed approaches a potential rate cut and amid Trump's interference with the Fed's independence [2][17] Group 2: Stock Indices - The three major US stock indices experienced declines, with small-cap stocks showing significant pullbacks. The banking sector led gains while the communication sector lagged. The market turnover reached 2.91 trillion yuan. As of September 1, the financing balance increased by 35.36 billion yuan to 2.280829 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose, with potential incremental policies to boost the real economy in the second half of the year [3][9] - The current market is in a "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom" resonance period, indicating a high probability of continued market performance. However, investors should adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. Indices with a higher proportion of technology growth stocks, such as the CSI 500 and CSI 1000, are more aggressive and volatile, while indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, which are more defensive, may have relatively weaker price elasticity [3][9] Group 3: Copper and Other Metals - Copper prices rose in the overnight session, driven by tight supply of concentrates and high growth in smelting output. The National Bureau of Statistics reported positive growth in the electricity sector, with significant increases in photovoltaic installations. However, the automotive and home appliance sectors are showing signs of slowing growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to mixed factors [3][18] - Zinc prices also increased overnight, with processing fees for zinc concentrates recovering and smelting profits turning positive. However, the construction investment growth remains weak, and the overall supply-demand balance may tilt towards surplus in the short term, leading to potential weakness in zinc prices [3][19]