Group 1 - The Japanese political turmoil has led to a significant drop in the yen's exchange rate, with the USD/JPY rate rising over 1% [2] - The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown due to partisan disagreements, with the deadline for funding approaching [2] - Gold prices have surged past $3,500, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] Group 2 - The Chinese yuan experienced a sharp rise followed by a slight correction, with future stability expected as the core goal [3] - The A-share market saw a pullback, particularly in the technology sector, but the overall trend remains upward [3] - Yushutech plans to submit its IPO application between October and December, attracting market attention due to its previous successful funding rounds [3] Group 3 - The UK bond market experienced a significant sell-off, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.68% [4] - Southbound capital has seen a net inflow exceeding HKD 100 billion this year, enhancing the pricing power of the Hong Kong stock market [5] - The "national team" funds have revealed their second-quarter holdings, with notable adjustments in positions, including increased stakes in companies like SF Express [5] - The robotics sector saw a strong rebound in the afternoon, driven by rumors of a leading company meeting with Tesla, although the information remains unverified [5]

Group 1 - The core driver for gold reaching $3508.73 per ounce is the strong market expectation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a 90% probability of rate cuts in September [2] - The geopolitical uncertainties and policy fluctuations under the Trump administration have amplified gold's safe-haven appeal, with significant price volatility observed due to unexpected tariff announcements [3] - Central banks globally are expected to purchase over 1000 tons of gold this year, providing solid long-term support for gold prices [3] Group 2 - Silver's price surge is driven by both industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, and financial speculation, with a 30% year-on-year increase in global solar installations [4] - The silver market has experienced a continuous supply shortage for five years, and the inclusion of silver in the "critical minerals list" by the Trump administration has enhanced its strategic resource status [4] - Speculative investments in silver have increased, with net long positions reaching 35%, the highest since 2011, indicating potential short-term correction risks [6] Group 3 - The sustainability of the current gold price level is under scrutiny, as previous attempts to maintain above $3500 per ounce have failed [5] - Long-term support factors for gold include rising geopolitical risks, diversification of reserves by emerging market central banks, and the onset of a Federal Reserve easing cycle [6] - The future trajectory of precious metals will depend on the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions, the evolution of Trump’s policies, and the global economy's ability to navigate high uncertainty [6]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a new all-time high, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, which has led to a significant increase in pre-market trading for gold stocks in the U.S. [1] - Silver prices have also surged, reaching $40.86 per ounce, marking a fourteen-year high [1] - Concerns regarding the overall strength of U.S. institutions, in addition to the Federal Reserve's actions, are driving increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] Company Performance - Harmony Gold (HIMY) saw a pre-market increase of over 7%, with a latest price of $13.280 and a daily increase of 5.31% [1] - Coeur Mining (CDE) experienced a pre-market rise of 4.5%, with a latest price of $13.150 and a daily increase of 4.70% [1] - New Gold (NGD) and DRDGOLD both rose over 3% in pre-market trading, with New Gold's latest price at $5.900 and a daily increase of 3.87% [1] - Other notable performers include Galiano Gold (GAU) with a pre-market increase of 3.69% and Equinox Gold (EQX) with a 3.20% rise [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged past $3500, marking a significant milestone and attracting global attention from investors [1][3] - The rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors, indicating a potential new era for gold investment [3] Group 1: Reasons Behind Gold Surge - Signal 1: Expectations of interest rate cuts in September are increasing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [4] - Signal 2: Central banks are aggressively buying gold to mitigate dollar risks, providing strong support for gold prices [5] - Signal 3: The dollar is under short-term pressure due to trade tariffs, creating a divergence between gold prices and the dollar [6] - Signal 4: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the stalemate in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] - Signal 5: The rising investment demand for gold, coupled with increasing mining costs, is contributing to higher gold prices [8] Group 2: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Key Point 1: The relationship between the dollar and interest rates will be crucial in determining gold price trends [10] - Key Point 2: Continued strong buying by central banks could indicate that $3500 may not be the peak for gold prices [11] - Key Point 3: Monitoring fund flows and market sentiment, such as ETF holdings and investor enthusiasm, will be essential for assessing gold price stability [12] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The company offers tools for gold trading, enabling ordinary investors to capitalize on the current market conditions [13] - Features such as low spreads and dual trading systems enhance the trading experience for investors [14][15] - The company provides daily strategies and live market updates to guide investors in navigating the gold market [16]

Group 1 - The performance of gold stocks in the first half of 2025 has significantly improved, with several companies reporting substantial increases in net profit [2][5] - The international gold price has been rising, with COMEX gold futures reaching a record high of $3,557.1 per ounce on September 1, 2025, marking a nearly 35% increase year-to-date [2][4] - Domestic gold prices have also surged, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 800.56 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of over 28% since the beginning of the year [3][4] Group 2 - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a probability of a 25 basis point cut in September reaching 87.4% [4][5] - Global gold demand has increased significantly, with the World Gold Council reporting a 3% year-on-year increase in total demand to 1,249 tons in Q2 2025, and a 45% increase in value to $132 billion, a historical high [4][5] - Several organizations are optimistic about the future performance of gold prices, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and the safe-haven appeal of gold as key factors [5][6] Group 3 - The financial performance of gold companies has improved, with 12 gold stocks reporting year-on-year increases in net profit or turning profitable, including notable gains from companies like Western Gold and Shandong Gold [5][6] - Western Gold reported a net profit of 154 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a 131.94% increase year-on-year, achieving the highest profit for the same period since its listing [6] - Social security funds have shown interest in gold stocks, with five gold stocks receiving significant investments, totaling 3.312 billion yuan, indicating strong institutional support [6]

申银万国期货：当下金银整体或在降息临近以及特朗普干预美联储独立性下呈现偏强走势 申银万国期货表示，特朗普试图解雇美联储理事，挑战美联储独立性的行为令市场感到不安。美国地质 勘探局（USGS）提议将白银等六种矿产纳入2025年关键矿产清单，引发白银进口关税风险担忧。此前 杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔表示风险的转变确实值得调整政策立场，被认为是较为鸽派的姿态，增强9月 降息预期，叠加7月非农数据不及预期，前值大幅下修，利好贵金属。当下美联储内部观点呈现分裂， 特朗普通过人事任命影响市场对美联储的预期，但在关税通胀压力下，9月或仍为谨慎降息姿态。而美 国7月通胀数据呈现反弹，近期美俄谈判释放的积极信号令地缘风险降温，一定程度约束黄金上行空 间。贸易谈判呈现多方进展，但整体贸易环境恶化，大而美法案落地继续推升美国财政赤字预期，中国 央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然有支撑。当下金银整体或在降息临近以及特朗普干预美联储 独立性下呈现偏强走势，市场聚焦本周非农数据。 宝城期货表示，金价在8月22日杰克逊霍尔会议后呈现上行态势，这很大程度上是由于美联储主席鲍威 尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上表现偏鸽推动的上涨。此外，美股呈现上行放缓态 ...

分析师指出："白银突然活跃起来，因为基本面和技术面同时发出利好信号，此外，白银在40美元的关 键阻力位被突破，触发了动能买盘。" 降息前景提升了贵金属的吸引力，而随着美国总统特朗普不断批评美联储决策者，引发外界对央行独立 性的担忧，避险需求也进一步推升了金银价格。 北京时间周一（9月1日）亚盘时段，现货白银突破并站上40美元/盎司整数关口，刷新了2011年9月21日 以来的新高。 截至9月1日14:06，现货白银上涨1.99%，报40.49美元/盎司。 分析人事指出，此次上涨受到市场对美国央行将在9月下旬的会议上降息的预期推动，而本周五公布的 关键美国就业数据可能进一步显示劳动力市场趋弱，从而强化降息理由。 值班主任：费 煜 值班编审：刘子平 来 源：湖北发布、央视财经 中国基金报、长江日报 责任编辑：秦小茜 校 对：晓 亮 ...

10:42 # 黄金ETF总持合变化 更新时间:2025-08-2 980 975 970 965 960 955 950 945 940 2025-07-30 2025-06-18 2025-07-09 2025-08-15 EBC黄金ETF持仓报告解读 黄金ETF持仓报告 公布机构：美国SPDR Gold Trust 当前总持仓 977.68 吨黄金 基本面消息，9月1日亚市盘中，现货黄金大幅拉升，再创4月22日以来的高位，与此同时，COMEX黄金期货合约价格也显著上扬，最高逼近3560美元/盎 司。值得注意的是，在金价大涨之际，现货白银也显著破位，最高突破40美元/盎司，创2011年以来最高水平，年内涨幅超过40%。 有分析人士指出，黄金、白银的最新涨势可能归因于避险需求的复苏，周一亚太市场多数下跌，尤其是日本日经225指数在上周五华尔街科技股大跌后遭受 重创。另外，贸易方面重新出现的不确定性加剧了厌恶风险的市场状况。在市场清淡（周一美国市场因假期休市）的情况下，金价正迈向创纪录的高点3500 美元。 针对本轮贵金属的拉升，分析认为，投资者对美联储9月降息的预期不断升温，提供支撑。特朗普对美联储的反复攻 ...

瞿瑞认为，短期来看，国际金价波动性料加大，整体处于高位运行。一方面源于市场对美联储9月降息 预期延续，对金价形成一定支撑。另一方面，金价新高或带来资金止盈离场，对金价走势造成扰动。 瞿瑞亦判断，国际金价在中长期仍处于震荡上行通道，主要源于以下因素驱动：一是政策不确定性及地 缘政治风险使市场避险需求持续存在。特朗普政策的灵活性与变动性，特朗普政府对不同商品的关税仍 不确定以及关税影响还未彻底显现，令全球贸易政策不确定性持续处于高位，同时地缘政治冲突逐渐常 态化，避险情绪将为金价提供长期支撑。二是全球央行黄金配置意愿仍较强。特朗普政府推动的"大而 美"法案，美国财政赤字将持续扩大，同时其政策的变动性加剧美元信用风险，各国央行基于战略安全 与资产配置需求，将强化黄金储备布局。三是市场降息预期持续。鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上发言转 鸽、近期美国经济、就业数据降温符合降息条件，均强化年内降息的必要性，进而支撑金价上行。 华源证券研报则称，中期来看，"特朗普2.0"主线中的关税和减税交易或在后续趋向平稳，"降息交 易"将为黄金价格上涨提供较强动能，下半年预计美国货币政策变化将接力财政政策为黄金价格提供支 撑。长期来看，"降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has shown significant recovery, moving away from the traditional "summer lull" due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [1][2]. Factors Supporting Gold Price Recovery - **Macroeconomic Expectations**: There is a renewed market expectation for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset [2]. - **Safe-Haven Demand**: Economic and political risks in various global regions continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset, attracting capital inflows [2]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Several central banks are increasing their gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices [2]. Impact of Holidays on Gold Price Trends - **Market Liquidity**: During holidays, market liquidity typically decreases, which can lead to three potential scenarios affecting gold prices: - **Increased Volatility**: Low trading volumes can cause significant price fluctuations in response to large orders [4]. - **Delayed Market Response**: Important economic data or news released during holidays may not be immediately reflected in the market, leading to concentrated reactions when trading resumes [4]. - **Trend Continuation with Slower Pace**: If gold prices are in a strong upward trend before the holiday, the pace may slow down, but the overall trend direction is unlikely to change [4]. Long-Term Trends vs. Short-Term Fluctuations - **Focus on Long-Term Trends**: The core factors influencing the medium to long-term trajectory of gold prices are primarily the monetary policy directions of major economies and changes in real interest rate expectations, while short-term holiday effects mainly influence trading rhythm rather than trend direction [5]. - **Investment Strategies**: - Monitor market sentiment and position adjustments after the holiday [5]. - Keep an eye on key events such as Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data, as these will directly impact market expectations regarding Fed policies and gold prices [5]. - Consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with potential short-term volatility following the holiday [5].