智通财经APP获悉，受益于中美贸易紧张局势升级以及市场对美联储今年将进一步降息的预期，黄金价 格攀升至创纪录高位，白银价格亦走高。周三，截至发稿，黄金现货涨近1%，徘徊于每盎司4180美元 附近，此前一度涨至每盎司4185美元的历史新高。白银现货在周二经历剧烈波动后同样于周三走高，截 至发稿涨1.5%，报每盎司52.2美元。 周二，美国国债收益率降至数周来最低水平。美联储主席鲍威尔在周二的讲话中表示，美联储有望在本 月晚些时候再进行一次25个基点的降息，尽管美国政府停摆严重影响了其对经济状况的评估。鲍威尔多 次提到招聘速度缓慢的情况，并指出这种情况可能会进一步恶化。 与此同时，由于中美两大经济体之间的贸易局势在近期有所升级，风险厌恶情绪席卷市场，提升了黄金 的避险吸引力。此外，避险需求还受到美联储独立性遭受威胁、以及美国政府停摆的支撑。 在白银市场，伦敦地区的流动性短缺引发全球范围的实物银抢购潮，推动基准现货价格大幅高于纽约期 货价。周二，随着伦敦白银价格下跌，两地市场价差有所收窄，同时伦敦地区的白银借贷成本也开始下 降，尽管二者仍维持在极高水平。 交易员在美国政府对关键矿物进行所谓"232条款"调查结果公布 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Spot gold has risen nearly 0.9%, reaching a historical high of $4,179.92 per ounce, driven by central banks accumulating gold as official reserves [1] - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, indicating a lack of alternative fiat currency substitutes [1] - Despite achieving double-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, investor participation through ETFs remains low, but recent strong performance in 2025 has attracted investors back to the market [1][2] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut and expectations for two more cuts this year, combined with economic indicators like ADP employment data and manufacturing PMI, have increased demand for gold as a safe haven [2] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to a temporary pullback in gold prices, but the overall market sentiment remains strong, suggesting potential for continued upward movement [2] Group 3: ETF Performance and Market Activity - As of October 14, 2025, the gold stock ETF has seen a 3.53% decline, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, while the ETF has experienced a 3.95% increase over the past week [4] - The gold stock ETF has recorded significant trading activity, with a turnover of 29.79% and a total transaction volume of 35.73 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [4] - The gold stock ETF has achieved a 49.25% increase in net value over the past six months, ranking among the top funds in its category [5] Group 4: Risk and Return Metrics - The gold stock ETF has a maximum drawdown of 8.52% over the past six months, with a recovery period of 28 days, the fastest among comparable funds [6] - The ETF's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, with a focus on tracking the performance of the gold industry index [7] - The top ten weighted stocks in the gold industry index account for 68.2% of the index, highlighting concentration in major players [7]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged past the $4,100 mark, reaching a new historical high, driven by trade tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.64% to $4,159.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.33%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 3.29% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials might halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging some signs of tightening in the money market [1] - Powell suggested a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown impacting the Fed's economic outlook [1] - Fed Governor Bowman noted a weakening in consumer spending and anticipated two more rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Guosen Futures analysis highlighted that the dovish signals from the Fed and expectations of further rate cuts have strengthened the outlook for easing [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - A Bank of America survey indicated that "long gold" has become the most crowded trade, surpassing the "seven giants," suggesting a continued bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-ferrous metals industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [14]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector will see significant earnings growth in Q3 2025, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum expected to achieve over 50% year-on-year growth [3][7]. - The performance growth is primarily driven by rising metal prices and increased production and sales volumes [3]. - The report highlights the impact of recent economic events, such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and government shutdown, on gold prices, suggesting a long-term upward trend for gold due to low domestic reserves in China [5]. - Industrial metals like copper are expected to see price increases due to supply constraints from incidents like the mudslide at Freeport's Grasberg mine [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply-side adjustments and export demand in the steel sector, recommending stable dividend-paying stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast - Companies with over 50% year-on-year growth include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Shandong Gold [3]. - Companies with 20-50% growth include Huayou Cobalt and Baosteel [3]. - Companies with 0-20% growth include Shengda Resources and Western Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report notes that gold prices are expected to rise due to interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, recommending stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [5]. - Silver is also highlighted as a potential investment due to a favorable gold-silver ratio [5]. Industrial Metals - Copper prices are projected to increase due to supply disruptions, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum recommended [5]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise as domestic production capacity becomes constrained [5]. Steel Sector - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable earnings and potential for valuation recovery, such as Baosteel and Hesteel [5]. Minor Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to remain strong due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Huayou Cobalt recommended [5]. - Lithium supply is currently more relaxed, with attention on changes in Yichun's mica mines [5]. Growth Cycle Investment Analysis - The report recommends investing in stable supply-demand sectors within the new energy manufacturing industry, highlighting companies like Huafeng Aluminum and Asia-Pacific Technology [5].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, surpassing $4100 per ounce and approaching the $4200 mark, with historical highs being reached [1][3]. Gold Price Movement - As of the latest report, London gold is priced at $4140.6 per ounce, up 0.76% for the day, with an intraday high of $4179.748 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a significant increase, rising 0.45% to $4151.7 per ounce, with a peak of $4190.9 per ounce [3][4]. Factors Driving Gold Prices - The chief economist of Nanhua Futures, Zhu Bin, identifies three main reasons for the rise in gold prices: 1. The extensive issuance of currency by the U.S. has led to severe inflation and a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar [5]. 2. The U.S. government's misuse of the dollar's hegemonic status has undermined its position as a "safe asset" [6]. 3. Pressure from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve has compromised its independence, shaking the foundation of the dollar as a global currency [6]. Investment Trends - Wang Zheng, general manager of Shangyi Investment, notes that the rise in gold prices is driven by multiple factors: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle typically leads to significant gains in gold [7]. 2. Global geopolitical risks and uncertainties are pushing funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. 3. Continuous gold purchases by central banks provide a solid support for gold prices, alongside a strategic demand for de-dollarization [7]. Market Dynamics - The chief asset research officer at GF Securities, Dai Kang, describes gold as a super-national sovereign credit, akin to a perpetual, non-interest-bearing bond. He suggests that the long-term investment logic for gold will be shaped by its super-national sovereign credit value [8]. - The ongoing concerns regarding U.S. debt may continue to erode the credibility of the dollar, while the trend of de-dollarization, combined with geopolitical risks and central bank demand for gold, is favorable for gold in the medium to long term [8]. Short-term Considerations - Wang Zheng cautions that gold prices may face technical pressure in the short term, suggesting a need for investors to be wary of potential pullbacks. He emphasizes that while the core value of gold remains intact, market conditions may require careful position adjustments [8].

官 2025 年 10 月 14 日 有色金属行业 2025 年三季度业绩前瞻 相关研究 证券分析师 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× quozy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 2025 三季度业绩前瞻: 我们对重点公司 2025 三季度业绩进行预测，2025 年前三季度业绩同比增速在 50%以上的有紫金 O 矿业、洛阳铝业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、中金黄金、山金国际、株冶集团、湖南黄金、金诚信、 金力永磁，同比增速在 20-50%区间的有华友钻业、宝钢股份、南钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材, 同比增速在 0-20%区间的有盛达资源、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天山铝业、中信特钢, 业绩增长主要受益于相关金属价格同比上涨、产销量同比增长；2025Q3 业绩环比增速在 50%以 上的有盛达资源、铜陵有色、金力永磁，在 20-50%区间的有山东黄金、赤峰黄金、湖南黄金，在 0-20%区间的有紫金矿业、山金国际、株冶集团、金诚信、西部矿业、华峰铝业、云铝股份、天 山铝业、新疆众和、华友钻业、 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price**: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, leading to unprecedented price increases and severe liquidity issues in London [3][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - Spot silver prices have surpassed $53 per ounce, reaching a new historical high [1]. - Spot gold has also risen to $4,150 per ounce, marking a record high [2]. - London spot silver prices have increased by 0.4%, hitting $52.5868 per ounce, exceeding the previous record set in 1980 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - A liquidity crisis in the London silver market has resulted in a rush to acquire silver globally, driven by strong safe-haven demand, surging Indian purchases, and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs [6][10][12]. - The premium for London spot prices over New York futures reached $3, prompting traders to take extreme measures, such as chartering transatlantic flights for silver transport [6]. - The one-month leasing rate for silver in London has surged above 30%, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% annualized [8]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Issues - The available silver inventory in London has plummeted by 75% since mid-2019, from approximately 850 million ounces to around 200 million ounces [10]. - The lack of liquidity is exacerbated by banks' reluctance to quote prices, leading to wide bid-ask spreads [10]. Group 4: Demand Factors - Investors are flocking to silver and gold as safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties, including U.S. debt risks and currency devaluation [10]. - A recent unexpected surge in demand from India has further strained already tight inventories in London [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Analysts are divided on the future of silver prices; Bank of America has raised its 2026 silver price target from $44 to $65 per ounce due to ongoing supply shortages and fiscal deficits [14]. - Goldman Sachs warns that the current price surge is primarily driven by physical tightness in the London market, predicting that this situation may ease in the coming weeks but could lead to extreme volatility [14].

黄金/美元技术面概述 周二亚洲时段，金价延续近期创纪录的涨势，并在基本面支撑下有望进一步上涨。在美国政府关门引发经济不确定性的背景下，中美贸易紧张局势再度升 温，持续推动避险资金流向黄金。 事实上，交易员们正在消化美联储今年将再次两次降息的可能性。前景未能帮助美元（USD）利用隔夜涨幅，这反过来又支持了大宗商品延续既定上涨趋势 的理由。与此同时，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对中国关税的立场转变，仍然支撑着乐观的市场情绪。然而，这并未削弱围绕黄金的潜在强劲看涨情绪，证实 了积极的前景。 全球避险情绪和美联储降息预期推动黄金多头保持控制 由于看不到任何解决方案，围绕如何重启美国政府的僵局将持续到第三周，民主党和共和党继续互相指责始于10月1日的停摆。参议院将于周二复会，预计 将再次就拨款计划进行投票，该计划已七次未达到所需的60票门槛。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周五再次引发贸易紧张局势，威胁自11月1日起对所有中国商品征收100%的关税，以报复中国加强稀土出口限制。这标志着全球两 大经济体之间的贸易战再次升级，并继续利好避险资产黄金。 特朗普周日软化了立场，并在TruthSocial网站上发文称，美国不希望伤害中国。特朗 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices surged past $4,100 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $4,116.77, closing at $4,106.48, an increase of 2.2% [1] - Silver also set a new record, peaking at $52.12 and closing at $51.82, up 3.1% [1] - The relative strength index (RSI) for gold and silver reached 80 and 83 respectively, indicating an overbought market [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. major indices rebounded significantly after a sell-off, driven by a softening tone from President Trump regarding trade with China [3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.34% to 6,691.25, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.55% to 46,311 points [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined as investors sought safe-haven assets amid expectations of potential Fed easing [6] Group 3: Commodity Performance - WTI crude oil prices rose approximately 1.3% due to improved market sentiment from easing trade tensions [6] - Gold futures soared to a historical high, supported by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed rate cuts [6] - The FTSE 100 index in the UK saw a slight increase, buoyed by global sentiment following the U.S. softening stance on China [6]