1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in September continued to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The resilience of exports was mainly supported by the demand from non-US economies and emerging markets, low base effect, and the "anti-involution" effect on export prices. In the fourth quarter, although the rising base may suppress export readings, exports may still perform better than expected. [3][7] - China's imports in September had a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, reaching a new high for the year. The increase was mainly driven by price rises, and the import volume of some consumer goods remained weak. Attention should be paid to the improvement of import momentum after the accelerated implementation of wide - credit policies in the fourth quarter. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Export: Strong Demand from Emerging Markets Supports Export Resilience - **Overall Export Situation**: In September, the export growth rate was +8.3%, 3.9 percentage points higher than that in August. The narrowing decline in exports to the US and the rising growth rate to non - US economies, along with the booming emerging markets, supported export resilience. [3][13] - **By Product Category** - **Consumer Goods**: The drag on consumer goods exports narrowed slightly but remained at a low level. In September, the year - on - year decline of four categories of consumer goods (clothing, shoes, bags, and toys) was - 12.7%, a 0.6 - percentage - point improvement from August. Price was still the main drag, with shoes and bags having year - on - year declines of - 13.0% and - 14.1% respectively. [15] - **Intermediate Goods**: The export of intermediate goods accelerated, significantly driving exports. In September, the combined year - on - year growth of five categories of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +21.0% (compared to +12.3% in August), driving export growth by 2.4 percentage points. [18] - **Electronic Products**: Due to the low base, the drag of electronic products on exports significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.0% (compared to - 8.1% in August), and the drag on exports narrowed to - 0.1%, the best performance since April. [23] - **Automobiles**: The contribution of automobiles declined slightly. In September, the year - on - year growth of automobile (including chassis) export value was +10.9%, a 6.5 - percentage - point decline from August, and the driving rate of export growth dropped to 0.4%. [23] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In September, the decline in exports to the US narrowed slightly, with a year - on - year decline of - 27.0%, and its share in exports rose to 10.4%. The growth rate of exports to the EU continued to rise, reaching +14.2%. [24] - **Emerging Markets**: Exports to ASEAN slowed down, with a year - on - year growth of +15.6%, a 7 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, but still at a relatively high historical level. Exports to Latin America were remarkable, with the year - on - year growth turning positive to +15.2%, the highest since May. [24] 3.2 Import: Significantly Driven by Price, with the Growth Rate Reaching a New High for the Year - **Overall Import Situation**: In September, the import amount had a year - on - year growth of 7.4%, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from August, reaching a new high for the year. The month - on - month growth was +8.5%, significantly higher than the usual 2% in the same period. Price increases were the main driver, while the import volume of some commodities remained weak, indicating that domestic demand still needed to be boosted by wide - credit policies. [29] - **By Product Category** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The decline in imports of upstream bulk commodities significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of five categories of upstream bulk commodities (iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite, crude oil, and refined oil) was - 1.6%, the best performance this year, 10.5 percentage points narrower than in August. [30] - **Intermediate Goods**: The import of intermediate goods accelerated. The combined year - on - year growth of four categories of intermediate goods (primary plastics, copper materials, diodes, and integrated circuits) was +11.6%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, also at a new high for the year. [30] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The decline in downstream consumer goods narrowed to single - digits for the first time. The combined year - on - year decline of three categories of consumer goods (medical materials and drugs, cosmetics, and automobiles) was - 9.9% (compared to - 25.1% previously), dragging down imports by - 0.2%. [30]

Market Performance - On October 14, the A-share market experienced a correction, with the ChiNext index falling nearly 4% [1][2]. Analysis of Market Movements - The recent escalation of China-U.S. trade tensions has raised concerns about the stability of global supply chains and the foreign trade environment, particularly in areas such as shipping costs, rare earth controls, and tariff threats [2]. - Technical adjustment pressures within the market have also contributed to the volatility, as the A-share market has accumulated significant gains since the beginning of the year, prompting some profit-taking amid external disturbances [2]. - The complex and changing international geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties in the policy directions of major economies like France and Japan, has led to a cautious market sentiment [2]. Impact of Trade Tensions - The recent escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions has implications beyond traditional trade, with China's export controls on rare earths and related technologies targeting the core supply chains of the global high-tech industry [2]. - The U.S. has threatened higher tariffs, which exacerbates tensions in the global trade system, creating uncertainty and risk aversion in the market, particularly affecting industries reliant on China-U.S. trade and those closely tied to globalization in high-tech and manufacturing sectors [2]. Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in the A-share market may increase, but there is no need for excessive pessimism in the medium term [3]. - The evolution of China-U.S. relations, especially with key events like the upcoming APEC summit, will be critical observation points for the market [3]. - The market focus is expected to shift towards internal drivers, particularly the policy dividends from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the certainty of third-quarter earnings [3]. - In terms of asset allocation, a balanced strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors that highlight strategic value and benefit from domestic industrial policy support, such as technology and new energy [3]. - Additionally, sectors with relatively low valuations and improving fundamentals may also present investment opportunities [3]. - Continuous monitoring of incremental capital movements and changes in the external environment is advised for flexible portfolio adjustments [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be weakly volatile. The export of steel products shows strong resilience, but there is still significant pressure on supply and demand, and macro - level disturbances are increasing [1]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term. Although the supply has decreased, the demand remains at a relatively high level, presenting a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have a wide - range volatile operation in the short term. The procurement attitude of enterprises is cautious, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient, but the short - term demand has certain support [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have a weakly volatile trend in the short term. The fundamental driving force is limited, and they mainly follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and the new round of steel tenders [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3083 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 26,600 lots. Spot prices slightly declined, and the trading volume was low. In September 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.465 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan/ton or 1.2% from the previous trading day. Port spot prices rose. The global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron - making output decreased by 0.23 tons to 2.4154 million tons. The steel mill profit margin continued to decline slightly, and the port inventory increased while the steel mill inventory decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1146 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.29%, with a decrease in positions of 7044 lots. Some coal mine production slightly recovered, and the procurement enthusiasm of traders slowed down. The subsequent maintenance of steel mills may expand [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1642.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton or 1.44%, with an increase in positions of 569 lots. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises was slightly repaired. Steel mills purchased on demand, and some had production restrictions and maintenance [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract was reported at 5746 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The supply decreased slightly from the high level, and the demand was limited. The cost of manganese ore was relatively stable, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the silicon iron futures price was volatile and weak. The main contract was reported at 5406 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95%. The cost support was weak, the production enterprise's operating rate was relatively high, and the inventory of sample enterprises increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 56.0, unchanged from the previous day; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil was - 13.0, down 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the rebar 01 contract was 137.0, up 10.0 from the previous day; the basis of the iron ore 01 contract was 41.0, down 0.7 from the previous day [4]. - **Spot**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220.0, down 10.0 from the previous day; the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 796.0, up 6.0 from the previous day [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar disk profit was - 108.7, down 23.7 from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 178.0, down 4.0 from the previous day [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and manganese silicon - silicon iron difference [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [53].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes that its export control measures on rare earths are legitimate actions to enhance its export control system and maintain national security, while criticizing the U.S. for its discriminatory practices and threats of tariffs [1][3][4]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - China has implemented export control measures on rare earths based on legal regulations, aiming to maintain global supply chain stability and fulfill international obligations [3][4]. - The export control is not a ban; applications that meet regulations will continue to be approved, and China is open to dialogue with other countries to ensure compliance and trade facilitation [4][3]. - The measures were communicated to relevant countries prior to their announcement, indicating a commitment to transparency [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Tariffs and Trade Relations - The U.S. announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in response to China's export controls, which China views as a double standard and a violation of fair trade practices [4][5]. - China has consistently stated its willingness to engage in dialogue while opposing the U.S.'s threats and unilateral actions, urging the U.S. to correct its approach [2][5]. - The ongoing trade tensions have escalated since the Madrid economic talks, with the U.S. imposing additional restrictions that harm bilateral relations [5][6]. Group 3: Response to U.S. Actions - China plans to implement countermeasures against U.S. tariffs and port fees, asserting that these actions violate WTO rules and the principles of mutual benefit [6][7]. - The Chinese government views its countermeasures as necessary defensive actions to protect its industries and ensure fair competition in international shipping and shipbuilding markets [7][6]. - There is a call for the U.S. to recognize its errors and return to constructive dialogue to resolve trade disputes [7].

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Industry is experiencing a positive market reaction, with China Shipbuilding Defense (00317) seeing a nearly 6% increase in stock price, attributed to government investigations into the impact of U.S. 301 investigations on the shipping and shipbuilding industries [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - China Shipbuilding Defense's stock rose by 4.72% to HKD 15.75, with a trading volume of HKD 80.2174 million [1] Group 2: Government Actions - The Ministry of Transport, in collaboration with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is investigating the potential impacts of U.S. 301 investigations on China's shipping and shipbuilding industries, focusing on discriminatory measures against Chinese entities [1] - Starting from October 14, the Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for U.S. vessels, indicating a retaliatory measure against U.S. actions [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Shenwan Hongyuan suggests that China's countermeasures could present historical opportunities for the shipping industry, particularly if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted, potentially leading to a surge in shipbuilding orders [1] - The potential for U.S.-China negotiations to lead to the cancellation of the 301 investigation could be beneficial for the shipbuilding sector, alongside the possibility of China purchasing U.S. oil, which would increase shipping distances [1]

Report 1: Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View Although steel demand is weak, the cost side provides support. Pay attention to the support levels around 3000 and 3200 for the January contract of rebar and hot-rolled coil respectively. The short-term weak macro sentiment will suppress the black market, but if the Sino-US friction intensifies in the medium term, the inflation expectation of upstream resource products will increase. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3230 to 3220 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased from 3159 to 3139 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 10 to 2940 yuan/ton, and the profit of hot-rolled coil in East China decreased by 7. [1] - **Mills**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.8 to 863.3 tons, a decline of 0.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 127.9 to 1600.7 tons, an increase of 8.7%. The rebar inventory increased by 57.4 to 659.6 tons, an increase of 9.5%. [1] - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 9.1 tons, a decline of 7.1%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 153.4 to 751.4 tons, a decline of 17.0%. [1] Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The weak performance of finished products drags down the raw materials. The iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low levels and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil. [4] Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 1-5 spread increased by 3.0 to 23.5, an increase of 14.6%. [4] - **Supply**: The weekly global shipment volume of iron ore decreased by 71.5 to 3207.5 tons, a decline of 2.2%, and the 45-port arrival volume increased by 437.1 to 3045.8 tons, an increase of 16.8%. [4] - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9 tons, a decline of 2.9%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The 45-port inventory increased by 46.7 to 14024.5 tons, an increase of 0.3%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 990.6 to 9046.2 tons, a decline of 9.9%. [4] Report 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View For coke, it is recommended to go short on the Coke 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1550 - 1700, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go short on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at high levels, with a reference range of 1050 - 1200, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal. [6] Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased from 1667 to 1643 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of coking coal decreased from 1161 to 1146 yuan/ton. [6] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all-sample coking plants remained unchanged at 66.1 tons, and the output of raw coal decreased by 31.3 to 836.7 tons, a decline of 3.6%. [6] - **Demand**: The iron ore output decreased by 0.3 to 241.5 tons, a decline of 0.1%. [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 10.1 to 909.8 tons, a decline of 1.1%, and the coking coal inventory of all-sample coking plants decreased by 78.7 to 959.1 tons, a decline of 7.6%. [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - **Rebar**: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - **Apples**: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - **Eggs**: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - **Oils**: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.99% to 927.56 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.84% to 11,531 yuan/kilogram [4] - The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions and the rise of risk aversion sentiment boosted the prices of precious metals to strengthen again. In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino-US trade, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October will keep the gold price strong. Silver will also maintain a strong trend in the short term, but there is a risk of adjustment when the high premium of London silver eases [4] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The central bank's gold purchases continue, so the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Tracking - From October 10 to October 13, London gold spot rose 2.6%, London silver spot rose 3.4%, COMEX gold rose 2.7%, COMEX silver rose 4.3%, AU2512 rose 2.9%, AG2512 rose 4.1%, AU (T + D) rose 2.9%, and AG (T + D) rose 3.7% [3] Spread/Ratio Tracking - From October 10 to October 13, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 8.7%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price increased by 62.9%, the spread of gold (TD - London) decreased by 44.5%, the spread of silver (TD - London) increased by 1.0%, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.1%, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio decreased by 1.5%, the spread of AU2602 - 2512 decreased by 5.4%, and the spread of AG2602 - 2512 decreased by 25.0% [3] Position Data - From October 9 to October 10, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37%, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.85%, the non - commercial short position of COMEX gold increased by 9.43%, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold increased by 0.13%, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver increased by 0.97%, the non - commercial short position of COMEX silver decreased by 0.21%, and the non - commercial net long position of COMEX silver increased by 1.43% [3] Inventory Data - From October 10 to October 13, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 3.82%. From October 9 to October 10, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% [3] Other Market Data - From October 10 to October 13, the US dollar index decreased by 2.22%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 31.83%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.59%, NYMEX crude oil decreased by 2.17%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 2.71%, and VIX decreased by 5.33% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China are deemed unsustainable, with calls for gradual de-escalation of tariffs and trade barriers [1][6]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Dynamics - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset emphasizes that the current tariff standoff is problematic for both nations, leading to increased tensions and economic difficulties [1]. - The U.S. has imposed high tariffs on a wide range of Chinese goods, while China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, causing significant challenges for American farmers [1][3]. - Despite the trade tensions, the U.S. maintains a competitive edge in high-end exports to China, which are difficult for China to replace in the short term [3]. Group 2: China's Economic Resilience - Since the reform and opening-up in 1978, China's GDP per capita has surged from a few hundred dollars to over $10,000 by 2025, establishing it as the world's second-largest economy [3]. - China has adapted to U.S. tariffs by enhancing domestic consumption and establishing manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia, which has bolstered its service sector [3]. - The Chinese economy is projected to grow at around 5% in the first half of 2025, outperforming many developed nations [3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Response - China has a history of enduring external pressures, which has fostered a resilient national spirit and a strategic approach to trade disputes [4]. - The Chinese government views the U.S. tariffs as a familiar tactic and is committed to defending its core interests, emphasizing sovereignty and rejecting unilateralism [6][7]. - The lack of unified support from other countries for U.S. actions against China reflects a shift in the international landscape, with many nations prioritizing their economic interests [7][9]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - The trade conflict is characterized as a protracted struggle rather than a quick resolution, with China's responses being strategic rather than reactionary [9]. - Public support for domestic products in China has strengthened the government's position, allowing it to mitigate the impact of tariffs through increased internal consumption [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, providing insights on their supply - demand, price trends, and investment strategies based on current market conditions such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] - It also offers views on financial products like stock indices and treasury bonds, considering macro - economic factors and policy directions [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices partially recovered on Monday. Fourth - quarter Brent crude average price is expected to drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $62/barrel. Short - term, end - of - month APAC meeting and Sino - US talks may affect risk sentiment, and the previously recommended strategy can be temporarily closed [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil's oscillation. High - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support but faces medium - term pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+增产背景下海外伴生气供应压力加剧，沙特10月CP价格下调超出市场预期，LPG缺乏利好支撑而承压 [22] - **Urea**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the domestic supply - demand pattern is loose. The market is likely to continue its weak trend [23] - **Methanol**: The Iran sanctions ship event may reduce imports. Coastal MTO device operation is stable, and port inventory accumulation is less than expected [24] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Cost support weakens, downstream demand is scattered, and inventory needs to be digested. Prices are under pressure [27] - **PVC &烧碱**: Trade friction may affect PVC exports. PVC supply is high, and it may have a weak - oscillating trend. Caustic soda has a marginal improvement, and the decline of futures prices is expected to be limited [28] - **PX & PTA**: PX price decline drives the polyester industry chain down. Supply is under pressure, and downstream demand is expected to weaken in the mid - to - long term [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production increases, ports accumulate inventory, but the price is at the bottom of the range. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations [30] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fibre prices decline due to raw material and trade friction. Bottle - chip production increases inventory, and demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Glass**: It is in a weak state. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for low - buying opportunities near the cost [32] - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Demand recovers after the holiday, supply pressure is high, and inventory decreases. It is advisable to wait and see [33] - **纯碱**: Supply is high, demand increase is limited, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It is advisable to short at high - rebound levels [34] - **大豆 &豆粕**: Domestic soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but it may be tight in Q1 next year. Wait and see for now, and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35] - **豆油 &棕榈油**: US soybean sales are slow. The supply of South American soybeans and existing domestic inventory can buffer. Palm oil inventory is high. Wait for price bottom - seeking and then go long [36] - **菜粕 &菜油**: Canadian rapeseed harvest nears completion, with good yield. Pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations. Consider short - selling rapeseed - related products in cross - product strategies [37] - **豆一**: Domestic soybeans are rebounding, and imports from the US are affected. Supply may be tight in Q1 next year. Pay attention to policy guidance [38] - **玉米**: Corn futures decline. New grain supply increases, and prices are under pressure. Hold short positions and wait for policy support [39] - **生猪**: Futures prices are under pressure, and the spot price is at the bottom. Pay attention to secondary fattening and the industry's capacity reduction cycle [40] - **鸡蛋**: Near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Accelerate the elimination of old chickens. Short near - month contracts and go long on far - month contracts [41] - **棉花**: US cotton demand is weak, and domestic cotton supply may increase significantly. Demand is weak. Temporarily wait and see [42] - **白糖**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [43] - **苹果**: Futures prices are high - oscillating. Supply change is small, and cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Adopt a short - selling strategy [44] - **木材**: Prices are in a correction. Supply is low, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see [45] - **纸浆**: Futures prices rise. Port inventory is high, and demand is average. Pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [46] - **Stock Indices**: A - share market had a V - shaped recovery. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade relations and domestic policies. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector in the medium term [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices rise. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepening may end, and long - term bonds are more likely to recover [48]