2月24日，美国最高法院上周五驳回了特朗普总统的关税政策，但风波远未结束，随之而来的是又一轮 更为紧张的贸易局势。经济学家普遍认为，该裁决的后续影响不仅会威胁到全球贸易关系，美国经济也 可能因此遭受损失。 当地时间2月20日，美国最高法院以6比3的裁决认定，特朗普总统没有法律权力根据《国际紧急经济权 力法》（IEEPA）实施去年4月生效的全面关税。 然而，特朗普并不"买账"，并随后对一系列美国贸易伙伴加征最高达15%的新关税，进一步加剧了全球 贸易紧张局势。欧盟领导人对新关税表示失望，认为美国的政策转变将颠覆去年与欧盟和英国达成的贸 易协议。 经济学家们认为，对美国最新关税威胁的抵制，凸显了人们对总统反复无常的贸易政策的深深不满，并 可能促使外国政府缩减与美国的贸易规模，导致企业减少扩张、投资和招聘。 他在接受采访时表示，"企业不知道接下来会发生什么。他们会减少投资，减少招聘，扩张步伐也会放 缓。这将限制美国经济增长。" 这位经济学家继续表示，在不确定性加剧的情况下，外国政府可能会做出类似的反应，导致它们"继续 疏远美国。 "他们肯定为此焦头烂额，"赞迪说："人们会越来越觉得美国经济管理不善，客观来说，他们的 ...

特朗普政府2025年上台后援引美国《国际紧急经济权力法》，以不经过国会批准、直接颁布行政令的方式出台一系列加征关税措施，在美国国内引发一系列 法律诉讼。 【环球网报道 记者 姜蔼玲】据英国广播公司（BBC）报道，美国总统特朗普当地时间23日威胁称，如果一些国家在近期达成的贸易协议中"玩花招"，将对 其征收更高的关税。美联邦政府实施大规模关税的行为引发多国强烈不满，并已持续受到美国企业和多州政府多次起诉，就在上周20日，美国联邦最高法院 认定特朗普政府实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。 特朗普23日在社交媒体上发文威胁他国，不要利用美最高法院裁决来背弃对去年的关税措施所作出的贸易承诺，"任何想借助最高法院荒谬裁决来'玩花 招'的国家，尤其是那些多年来、甚至数十年来'榨取'美国（利益）的国家，都将面临比他们刚刚同意的关税更高、甚至更严厉的关税。" BBC称，美最高法院有关裁决推翻了特朗普政府去年实施的大部分关税。而特朗普发出最新威胁之际，世界多国表示，正评估美最高法院有关裁决之后，哪 些关税措施和贸易协议仍将继续有效。欧盟方面周一（23日）表示，将暂停批准今年夏季达成的一项协议；印度也表示，将推迟原定为敲 ...

Political Impact - The ruling against IEEPA undermines Trump's core political asset of tariff policy, potentially diminishing his negotiating power and influence[6] - Without alternative legal pathways to reinstate tariffs, Trump may be perceived as a "lame duck"[7] Economic Impact - Estimated cumulative tariffs collected under IEEPA could reach approximately $170 billion by February 20, 2026, with reduced tariff revenue and potential refunds likely to increase the fiscal deficit[7] - The market initially reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising about 0.6% and the Nasdaq increasing approximately 1% following the ruling, indicating expectations of improved inflation and corporate earnings[24] Diplomatic Impact - The ruling may weaken the credibility of trade frameworks that rely on tariffs, leading trade partners to reassess their commitments until a new legal basis is established[7] - Countries with existing agreements may slow down their implementation processes, particularly those without clear execution frameworks[21] Policy Response - The Trump administration plans to utilize Section 122 tariffs as a transitional measure, imposing a 15% global tariff effective February 24, 2026, for a maximum of 150 days[8] - The USTR is expected to expedite Section 301 investigations to establish a sustainable tariff system before the expiration of the 122 tariffs[9] Market Outlook - The market is likely to experience a "marginal easing—then tightening" path, benefiting from initial tariff cancellation expectations but facing pressure as alternative tariff measures are implemented[4] - The effective tariff rate on China is projected to remain around 30%, despite a nominal decrease due to the shift from IEEPA to Section 122 tariffs[26] Risk Factors - Potential chaos if U.S. trade partners refuse to acknowledge the outcomes of interim trade negotiations[5] - The pace of tax refunds exceeding expectations could lead to a short-term spike in the fiscal deficit, impacting U.S. debt and dollar valuation[36] - If new tariff proposals are implemented more swiftly than anticipated, it could counteract the positive effects of the Supreme Court ruling[36]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 821.91 points (1.66%), the Nasdaq down by 258.80 points (1.13%), and the S&P 500 decreasing by 71.76 points (1.04%) [1][2] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged by 11.05% to 21.20, indicating increased market anxiety [1] Sector Performance - The financial sector dropped by 3.3%, with major banks like Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JPMorgan falling over 4% [4] - Software companies faced a 4.0% decline, with DoorDash and ServiceNow dropping over 5%, and Oracle down by 4.59% [4] - The airline and travel sectors plummeted by 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively, due to severe winter storms affecting transportation [4] Key Stock Movements - Notable tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising by 0.91% and Apple by 0.60%, while Google fell by 1.02%, and Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Microsoft all dropped over 2% [2][3] Economic and Policy Context - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration's tariffs on imports were unconstitutional, leading to new trade threats from the White House [5] - Trump announced a new 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, which was later raised to 15%, creating uncertainty in the market [5] - The average effective tariff rate is expected to decrease from 16% to 13.7% following the Supreme Court's decision [5] Investor Sentiment - Investors reacted negatively to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies, leading to a sell-off in U.S. assets [6] - Concerns about the potential for other countries to respond negatively to U.S. policies have heightened market anxiety [6] - The market is currently characterized by a preference for selling first and asking questions later, reflecting a strong aversion to uncertainty [6] Bond Market Reaction - In response to the latest tariff announcements, investors shifted towards U.S. Treasury bonds for safety, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.03% [7] - The two-year Treasury yield decreased by 3.6 basis points to 3.44%, indicating a flight to safety amid rising inflation concerns [7] Upcoming Events - Nvidia's earnings report is anticipated to impact market volatility, as it holds a significant weight in the S&P 500 index [8]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 821.91 points (1.66%) to 48,804.06, the Nasdaq dropping 1.13% to 22,627.27, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.04% to 6,837.75 [2][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged by 11.05% to 21.20, indicating increased investor anxiety [2] Sector Performance - The financial sector saw a decline of 3.3%, with major banks like Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JPMorgan falling over 4% [6] - Software companies faced a significant drop of 4.0%, with DoorDash and ServiceNow declining over 5% and Oracle down 4.59% [6] - The healthcare index rose nearly 1%, driven by a 4.86% increase in Eli Lilly's stock, outperforming its competitor Novo Nordisk [6] Trade Policy Impact - Following a Supreme Court ruling against the Trump administration's tariff policy, new tariffs of 10% on all U.S. imports were announced, later increased to 15% [7] - The average actual tariff rate is expected to decrease from 16% to 13.7% due to these changes, with a potential further drop to 9.1% after 150 days [7] Investor Sentiment - Investor reactions to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies have led to a sell-off in U.S. assets, with concerns about global investor sentiment towards U.S. policies [8] - The market is currently characterized by a preference for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising significantly as a hedge against dollar assets [8] Economic Indicators - The New York Fed reported an increase in core trend inflation from 2.4% to 2.8%, attributed to rising costs in services and goods, influenced by tariff policies [9] - Despite a cooling job market, inflationary pressures are causing some Federal Reserve officials to oppose interest rate cuts [9] Commodity Performance - Gold prices surged over 3%, trading around $5,250 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 7.3% to $89.05 per ounce, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [10]

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •美国暂停依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收的关税 •美贸易代表坚称协议有效 切割新旧关税 •美联储官员暗示若就业强劲或暂停加息 •韩国2月上旬出口大增 贸易顺差近50亿美元 【市场资讯】 •美国海关与边境保护局2月22日通过其货物系统消息服务宣布，自美国东部时间2月24日起，对进入消 费市场或从仓库提取用于消费的货物，将不再征收依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的关税。声明强 调，此次暂停不影响特朗普政府时期实施的其他关税措施。 •美国贸易代表格里尔表示，尽管部分关税措施在法律上遭遇挫折，但特朗普政府与贸易伙伴达成的协 议仍然有效。他强调，这些协议"是好协议"，美方会继续遵守，也期待对方履约，并试图将现有协议与 特朗普近日宣布的15%全球新关税区分开来。 •受强冬季风暴影响，美国东北部交通严重受阻，国会众议院和参议院已将原定本周初的首轮投票推迟 至2月24日。此次延期恰逢部分联邦机构"停摆"，国土安全部亦受影响。总统特朗普仍计划于24日在国 会大厦发表年度国情咨文。 •美联储理事沃勒表示，若即将公布的2月就业数据表现强劲，可能支持暂停进一步加息。他指出，当前 潜在通胀率已接近美联储2% ...

业内人士表示，美伊地缘博弈、美国关税政策裁定等事件影响贵金属与原油价格走势，白银库存紧张等 基本面因素也为其上涨提供支撑。展望后市，受供应端不确定性、需求季节性波动及宏观环境扰动等影 响，大宗商品价格波动大概率加剧，贵金属与原油仍将是市场波动的核心品种，需重点关注相关风险。 贵金属板块表现亮眼 据正信期货统计，马年春节假期期间（北京时间2月13日15时至2月23日15时，下同），贵金属板块表现 亮眼。其中，COMEX白银期货累计涨超11%，涨幅位居全球主要大宗商品首位；COMEX黄金期货累 计涨超3%，延续此前的上涨趋势。 来源：中国证券报 马年春节假期期间，全球大宗商品市场走势分化，整体呈现贵金属领涨、能源板块强势的特征，其中纽 约商品交易所（COMEX）白银期货、黄金期货及布伦特原油期货、WTI原油期货涨幅显著，成为市场 关注的焦点，工业金属等其他品类则表现分化。 国际原油市场也在春节假期期间迎来强势反弹，布伦特原油期货与美国WTI原油期货双双大幅上涨。 据正信期货统计，春节假期期间，布伦特原油期货累计涨超5%；美国WTI原油期货累计涨幅超4%。 南华期货表示，短期国际原油市场定价的核心依然在中东地缘风险 ...

（一） 伤害性不大，侮辱性极强。 这是我看到这张图的第一感觉，真是哭笑不得。军国大事，但有时，也就像是小孩子过家家。 事情的起因，是米兰冬奥会男子冰球决赛，美国队2:1险胜加拿大队，时隔46年再夺得冬奥会该项目金牌。 一个第一，一个第二，都是世界强队，都值得祝贺。 哪知道，白宫突然贴出一张图，图中，凶悍的白头鹰猛扑加拿大鹅，可怜的大鹅，被踩在脚底。 白宫是回应一年前特鲁多的一句话："你们夺不走我们的国家——也夺不走我们的国球。" 这不是羞辱是什么？ 一年过去了，特鲁多早已不是加拿大总理，但白宫还念念不忘，以这种方式公开进行羞辱。 要知道，这不是某个美国官员的帖子，而是白宫的官方账号。 试想一下，如果中国队战胜美国队，如果某个中国官方账号这样发，绝对是严重报道安全事故，从总编到小编，肯定一撸一个准。 中国绝对不会做的事情，但美国就是美国，美国就很任性。 加拿大队拿到银牌后，加拿大总理卡尼表示祝贺，说：祝贺你们在这场艰苦比赛中拿到银牌，你们让整个国家为此骄傲。 很正常的表述，但不正常的，是美国议员兰迪·芬恩的转发：祝贺，州长！ 人家好歹是加拿大总理，现在成了美国人的州长！ （二） 这还没完。 特朗普自己的账号，还 ...

Group 1 - The Supreme Court ruling did not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but struck down the specific authority used by the president to implement them, indicating that the administration can still utilize other authorities to impose tariffs [2][4] - The administration is expected to recreate the reciprocal tariff regime under different authorities, with the process already beginning under section 122, which is viewed as a temporary measure until section 301 investigations are completed [3][6] - The ruling represents a significant rebuke to the Trump administration's trade authority, leading trade partners to reassess their positions and the potential weakening of Trump's trade power [4][7] Group 2 - The 15% tariff imposed by the U.S. is unfavorable for countries like Australia, Singapore, and the UK, which had previously announced lower tariff rates, raising questions about potential adjustments from the U.S. [5] - China's tariff rate is notably high, close to 50%, and the Chinese commerce ministry has called for the U.S. to lift its unilateral tariffs, suggesting a strategic advantage for China in upcoming discussions [6][7] - China appears to be adopting a cautious approach, allowing the U.S. to navigate its challenges without interference, which may enhance China's position relative to the U.S. [8]

来源：芝麻AI 一、市场: ●2月24日收盘：美股大幅收跌 特朗普关税大棒打压市场 北京时间2月24日凌晨，美股周一大幅收跌，道指、纳指、标普500指数均下跌。原因一是人工智能颠覆 担忧发酵，IBM重挫；二是特朗普在最高法院否决其"对等"关税后要提高全球关税，他将税率从10%提 至15%，还称未来有更多征税措施。这增大美股压力，欧洲议会暂停美欧贸易协定批准工作。新关税引 发市场对通胀和增长前景的担忧，金价上涨，比特币暴跌。此外，围绕特朗普关税政策的波动或持续， 后续走势受关注。 [1] ●2月24日美股成交额前20：IBM股价重挫13%，核心业务面临AI威胁 周一美股成交额前20中多只股票有重要动态。英伟达收高，宣布与多家公司合作引入AI到OT网络安全 领域，获券商上调评级；特斯拉收跌，推出Cybertruck新车型，价格或依需求调整。微软收跌，调查美 用户访问服务问题；闪迪收高，推出开源工具。Palantir、Meta、CrowdStrike等收跌。礼来收高，为减 肥药Zepbound推出新剂型。IBM重挫，因Claude Code工具可改造其核心COBOL业务。诺和诺德收跌， 新一代减肥药试验效果不如礼来 ...