Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Hongwei Technology Co., Ltd. plans to conduct forward foreign exchange trading to hedge against currency risk and stabilize overseas revenue, using its own funds for transactions not exceeding RMB 150 million or equivalent foreign currency [1][2][3] Transaction Overview - The company and its subsidiaries will engage in forward foreign exchange trading primarily in USD and EUR, with a maximum contract value of RMB 150 million or equivalent foreign currency on any trading day [2][3][8] - The expected maximum margin and premium for these transactions will not exceed RMB 5 million [2][3][8] - The authorization for these transactions is valid for 12 months from the date of approval by the board of directors [2][3][8] Purpose of the Transactions - The company aims to mitigate the adverse effects of significant exchange rate fluctuations on its operating performance, as it has overseas procurement and sales activities [3][5] - The trading activities will be based on normal business operations and will not be speculative in nature [3][5] Risk Management - The company has established a comprehensive internal control system to manage risks associated with forward foreign exchange trading, including approval authority, operational processes, and risk handling procedures [6][7] - The company will continuously monitor market conditions and adjust strategies to minimize potential foreign exchange losses [6][7] Financial Impact - Engaging in forward foreign exchange trading is expected to enhance the company's financial stability and ability to respond to currency fluctuations [7][8] - The company will account for these transactions in accordance with relevant accounting standards [7][8] Approval Process - The board of directors approved the proposal for forward foreign exchange trading on July 25, 2025, and the proposal does not require shareholder approval as it does not involve related party transactions [8][9]

纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/7/24 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5800-6400 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 EB2509 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | 卖出 | 25% | 7450-750 0 ...

Group 1 - Financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Castle Securities, are advising clients to purchase inexpensive hedging tools to protect against potential losses in the U.S. stock market [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has surged 28% since its low on April 8, and the "fear index" has reached its lowest level since February, making the cost of hedging against market declines very low [1][3] - Goldman Sachs noted that if clients feel anxious, the market is making hedging operations very easy to execute [1] Group 2 - The market faces several potential adverse events, including the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision and unresolved trade agreements with major partners like Mexico and Canada [3] - The non-farm payroll report for July is expected to significantly impact the Federal Reserve's policy in the coming months, alongside important earnings reports from major tech companies [3] - Bank of America suggested that it is time to buy volatility, as the VIX index typically reaches its lowest point in July [3] Group 3 - There is a belief that the current upward trend in the market will continue, supported by retail investors [5] - If the Federal Reserve finds that tariffs do not drive inflation or hinder economic growth, a rate cut in September could further boost the stock market [5] - Institutional investors' long positions are nearing highs, and they may soon slow down their buying pace [5] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to engage in hedging operations set to expire in September to mitigate risks from significant events [5] - Historical data indicates that September is typically the worst-performing month for the U.S. stock market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The price increase is mainly due to supply - side disturbances, which boost market sentiment but have limited impact on the fundamentals. In the short term, strong market sentiment and frequent rumors support futures prices, but the pricing weight of the spot market may increase, and industry players can consider hedging at high prices. Also, the basis between the current spot and the 08 contract has been repaired, which will stimulate the production of warehouse receipts [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 70,450 yuan with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 68,800 yuan with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan [1] - Futures contracts: lithium carbonate 2508 has a closing price of 69,320 yuan with a decline of 3.59%; lithium carbonate 2509 has a closing price of 69,380 yuan with a decline of 4.07%; lithium carbonate 2510 has a closing price of 68,800 yuan with a decline of 3.91%; lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 68,620 yuan with a decline of 3.7%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 68,780 yuan with a decline of 3.48% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 750 yuan with a daily increase of 8 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,040 yuan with a daily increase of 10 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 1,605 yuan with a daily increase of 15 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 5,400 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 6,325 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,665 yuan with a daily increase of 325 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,150 yuan with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,845 yuan with a daily increase of 350 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,675 yuan with a daily increase of 300 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,650 yuan; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,070 yuan with a change of 4,850 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan with a change of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 520 yuan with a change of - 160 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 142,620 tons with a change of 1,827 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 58,039 tons with a change of - 559 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,271 tons with a change of 506 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,310 tons with a change of 1,880 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 10,754 tons with a change of 665 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 67,813 yuan, and the profit is 1,688 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 72,868 yuan, and the profit is - 4,992 yuan [3] Company News - Yichun Yinli, a subsidiary of Jiangte Motor, is expected to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange marks a significant development in China's chemical industry, enhancing risk management capabilities within the propylene supply chain and contributing to the overall stability of the chemical market [1][5]. Industry Overview - The chemical industry is a cornerstone of modern industrial development, with propylene being a key basic chemical product. It has a wide range of applications in various sectors, including home appliances, automotive, textiles, medical devices, and cosmetics [2]. - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of propylene, with a projected apparent consumption of 55.36 million tons and a market size of approximately 384.5 billion yuan in 2024. The industry has experienced rapid expansion, with an average annual growth rate of 12.8% from 2014 to 2024 [2][5]. - The propylene industry has over 100 production enterprises in China, with the top 10 companies accounting for 56.4% of total capacity. The market has been characterized by significant price volatility due to fluctuations in raw material prices and insufficient terminal demand [3][4]. Risk Management Needs - Prior to the launch of futures, the propylene industry lacked effective price risk management tools, leading to increased uncertainty for enterprises and hindering long-term healthy development [4][6]. - The introduction of propylene futures and options fills a critical gap in risk management, allowing companies to lock in procurement or sales prices and mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [4][6]. Impact of Futures and Options - The dual design of "futures + options" provides flexible hedging tools for enterprises along the propylene supply chain, enhancing their ability to manage risks and stabilize operations [6][7]. - The listing of propylene futures is a crucial step in improving China's energy and chemical futures market, complementing existing products like crude oil and methanol, and facilitating better risk management strategies [6][7]. International Pricing Influence - The launch of propylene futures is seen as a proactive measure to address uncertainties in the international market and ensure the security of supply chains. It aims to enhance the international pricing influence of Chinese propylene, particularly as domestic companies expand into overseas markets [8][9]. - The futures market is expected to provide authoritative and transparent pricing, improving trade efficiency and meeting the diverse risk management needs of enterprises [8][9]. Future Prospects - The introduction of propylene futures and options is aligned with China's strategy for high-quality development in the chemical industry, facilitating resource allocation and supporting industry consolidation and technological upgrades [9][10]. - As more chemical derivatives are introduced, the risk management ecosystem within China's energy and chemical industries is expected to become more robust, providing strong support for the ongoing transformation and upgrading of the sector [9][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of futures markets in enhancing the risk management capabilities of enterprises in Hebei Province, particularly in industries like petrochemicals, coal, steel, and glass [1][2] - The training program organized by Hebei regulatory bodies aims to improve the understanding and utilization of futures tools among local enterprises, thereby fostering a better regulatory environment for hedging activities [2][5] - Hebei Zhengda Glass Co., Ltd. serves as a case study, showcasing effective use of futures for hedging against price volatility, which has strengthened its market competitiveness and industry position [1][2] Group 2 - The demand for hedging through futures has been increasing among enterprises, necessitating enhanced regulatory oversight from government departments, including tax and audit agencies [2][5] - Zhengda Glass has adjusted its inventory management strategy post the listing of soda ash futures, reducing minimum inventory levels while increasing maximum inventory to ensure production stability [3] - The company has established a comprehensive risk management system and continuously updates its financial derivative management policies to optimize hedging operations [4]

Aeris Resources (1ZN) Update Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Aeris Resources (1ZN) - **Focus**: Mining operations, specifically copper, gold, and silver production - **Key Assets**: Triton, Krakow, Turton, Jack, Stockman Industry Insights - **Mining Industry**: Focus on resource extension and exploration, with a significant emphasis on operational delivery and cost management Key Financial Highlights - **Production**: - Copper: Nearly 25,000 tonnes produced, slightly below guidance [2] - Gold: 55,000 ounces produced, a strong result [2] - Silver: 125,000 ounces produced [2] - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately $190 million [5] - **Liquidity Position**: $59 million at the end of FY '25 [5] - **Cash and Receivables**: $49.5 million [6] Operational Performance - **Triton**: - Produced 6,200 tonnes of copper at $422 per tonne [4] - Anticipated production increase to 24,000 - 29,000 tonnes in FY '26, a 37% uplift from FY '25 [18][21] - **Krakow**: - Consistent performance with 11,000 ounces of gold produced [4] - Focus on resource extensions and exploration [9][10] - **Turton**: - Achieved 11,000 tonnes of copper production in Q4 FY '25 [2] - Plans for increased drilling from 25,000 meters to over 80,000 meters [23] Strategic Focus Areas - **Resource Extensions**: - Doubling exploration budget year-on-year [9] - Specific focus on greenfield exploration and resource extensions at Krakow and other assets [9][15] - **Asset Sales**: - Ongoing process to sell North Queensland assets, expected to complete in 2-3 months [11][26] - **Jack Mine**: - Care and maintenance costs reduced to $600,000 per quarter; exploration for base metal targets planned [12][13] - **Stockman**: - Feasibility study nearing completion, exploring potential for sulfuric acid production [14] Future Guidance - **FY '26 Production Guidance**: - Copper equivalent production expected to be between 40,000 - 49,000 tonnes [29] - Growth capital expenditure of $50 million for Moraput cutback [20] - **Exploration Budget**: - Increased to $18 - 23 million, focusing on resource extensions and new discoveries [30] Potential Risks and Considerations - **Operational Risks**: - Need for successful execution of exploration and resource extension plans to ensure long-term viability [15] - **Market Conditions**: - Gold price currently at $5,250 per ounce; potential hedging strategies being considered [16] Additional Insights - **Golden Plateau Opportunity**: - Potential for significant resource increase through cutback mining strategy [49][50] - **Collaboration Opportunities**: - Seeking partners for Stockman with both financial and technical expertise [63][64] Conclusion - **Overall Outlook**: Aeris Resources is positioned for growth in FY '26 with a strong focus on operational efficiency, resource extension, and strategic asset management. The company is actively pursuing exploration opportunities while managing costs effectively to enhance shareholder value.

1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for logs is between 820 and 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [2] - For inventory management, when log import volume is high and inventory is at a high level, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 875 to prevent inventory losses and lock in profits [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 810 - 820 to lock in procurement costs in advance [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The main contract closed at 838 (-4), with a reduction of 2,264 lots and a continuous 3 - day net capital outflow [3] - After the stock market's coal sector soared due to rumors of coal mine production inspections, the log market showed a relatively independent trend. The current log price is slightly overvalued. If the CFR import price rises, the valuation will be corrected; if it falls, the overvaluation will intensify, creating a good short - hedging opportunity [3] 3. Spot and Basis - On July 22, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged compared to the previous period. The calculated basis (after conversion) values varied, with some positive and some negative [5][8] 4. Data Overview Supply - The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] Inventory - As of July 18, 2025, the total port inventory in China was 3.29 million m³, an increase of 70,000 m³ from the previous period and a 4.1% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,932,000 m³, an increase of 38,000 m³ from the previous period and a 6.0% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,107,569 m³, a decrease of 7,431 m³ from the previous period but a 33.9% increase year - on - year [9] Demand - As of July 18, 2025, the average daily log port outbound volume was 62,400 m³, an increase of 3,600 m³ from the previous period and a 23.3% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 33,600 m³, a decrease of 1,700 m³ from the previous period but a 31.8% increase year - on - year. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 23,200 m³, an increase of 4,700 m³ from the previous period and a 32.6% increase year - on - year [9] Profit - As of July 25, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 83 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous period, and the spruce import profit was - 44 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous period [9] 5. Market Sentiment Analysis Bullish Factors - Traders are willing to support prices due to continuous import losses, the import cost is rising, and the overall commodity sentiment is warming up [7] Bearish Factors - The outflow of delivery goods from the 07 contract is suppressing the spot price, and the foreign merchant shipping volume is continuously increasing [7]

Core Viewpoint - The listing of propylene futures and options on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is expected to enhance risk management tools for industry chain enterprises, thereby supporting high-quality development in the industry [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Significance - Propylene is a crucial basic chemical product with upstream raw materials including crude oil, naphtha, coal, methanol, and propane, and downstream products such as polypropylene and epoxy propane, which are widely used in various sectors [2][3]. - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of propylene, making its market stability vital for the chemical industry's high-quality development and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse [2][3]. - The propylene industry faces challenges such as rapid upstream capacity expansion and insufficient downstream demand, highlighting the strong need for effective risk management [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The introduction of propylene futures and options will provide effective pricing references, risk management, and resource allocation tools, enhancing the industry's resilience and supporting its transformation and upgrade [2][4]. - The futures and options will complement existing products like liquefied gas, methanol, and polypropylene, creating a more comprehensive risk management strategy for enterprises [4][5]. Group 3: Operational Benefits - The futures market will offer enterprises tools for hedging against price fluctuations, ensuring stable production and operations [4][6]. - The transparent and efficient nature of the futures market will provide authoritative price references, aiding enterprises in formulating better operational strategies [4][5]. - As the propylene futures market matures, China's influence on global propylene pricing is expected to increase, supporting domestic enterprises in international trade [4][6]. Group 4: Regulatory and Developmental Aspects - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange aims to maintain stable operations for the propylene futures and options market, focusing on serving the real economy and optimizing contract rules based on industry development [7].

Core Insights - The energy and chemical industry is facing significant challenges due to frequent market price fluctuations and increased operational pressures on companies [2] - Zhejiang X Trading Co., Ltd. (X Trading), a wholly-owned subsidiary of A Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (A Petrochemical), plays a crucial role in raw material procurement and product sales, engaging deeply in futures trading to hedge risks and enhance value [2][3] Group 1: Challenges Faced by the Company - Raw material cost control is a major challenge due to the complex and lengthy PTA industry chain, making it difficult for the company to predict and manage procurement costs of raw materials like crude oil and PX, which directly impacts profit stability [3] - The company needs to balance cost control and effective risk management, as traditional methods may be costly and ineffective [3] - In a volatile market, the company must adapt its operational strategies flexibly to enhance competitiveness, with effective risk management being key to achieving this goal [3] - Efficient hedging tools are necessary for the company to respond quickly to market price changes and reduce risk exposure [3] Group 2: Risk Management Strategies - A tailored comprehensive risk management plan was developed, including hedging strategies, basis trading strategies, and options insurance strategies [3] - The company utilized futures contracts for crude oil and PX to lock in raw material procurement costs and employed sell hedging on polyester product sales to mitigate price decline risks [3] - A professional team was established to provide full-service support, including advanced technical support and system integration for seamless trading and risk management [4] Group 3: Case Studies - In a case study, X Trading locked in production profits by buying crude oil and PX futures while selling PTA futures, establishing positions to secure PTA production profits amid fluctuating market conditions [5][6] - Another case involved using sell hedging and reverse hedging operations to mitigate the risk of inventory devaluation and basis risk due to excess PTA raw material inventory [8][9] - The effectiveness of these strategies was highlighted, demonstrating the importance of utilizing futures markets for hedging and risk management [10] Group 4: Evaluation of Strategies - The risk management plan allowed A Petrochemical to successfully lock in procurement costs and sales prices, effectively avoiding risks from market price volatility [12] - The company maintained stable profits despite significant price fluctuations in crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester futures [12] - The implementation of risk management not only improved financial efficiency but also enabled the company to adapt its operational strategies in response to market changes, enhancing competitiveness [12]