摩根大通CEO戴蒙：我认为美联储应该保持独立。 来源：滚动播报 ...

记者丨吴斌 刘雪莹 编辑丨和佳 陈思颖 北京时间9月17日晚上，美股三大股指涨跌不一，多只芯片股下跌，截至23:20，英伟达股价一度跌近 3%。 | 小牛电动 | 4.415 | 6.90% | | --- | --- | --- | | NIU.O | | | | 小赢科技 | 14.960 | 6.78% | | XYF.N | | | | 百度集团 | 131.980 | 6.62% | | BIDU.O | | | | 嘉银科技 | 11.600 | 6.32% | | JFIN.O | | | | 迅雷 | 7.690 | 5.20% | | XNET.O | | | | 奇富科技 | 30.170 | 4.61% | | OFIN.O | | | | 虎牙 | 3.510 | 4.15% | | HUYA.N | | | | 蔚来 | 7.305 | 4.06% | | NIO.N | | | | 信也科技 | 7.933 | 3.83% | | FINV.N | | | | 第四公 | 16.670 | 3.80% | | KC.O | | | | 万国数据 | 38.700 | 3.70% | ...

Group 1 - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index saw a significant increase of over 2%, with notable gains from companies such as Niu Technologies, Xinyuan Technology, Baidu, and Jiayin Technology, all rising over 6% [1][4] - The index opened at 8775.64 and closed at 8789.60, marking a rise of 189.62 points or 2.20% from the previous close of 8599.98 [3] - The market capitalization ratio was reported at 22.1, with a price-to-book ratio of 2.46, indicating a strong market performance year-to-date with a 29.96% increase [3] Group 2 - The U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels, significantly surpassing market expectations of a reduction of 857,000 barrels, which may impact energy sector stocks [5] - Despite the unexpected drop in gasoline inventory, gasoline futures still experienced a decline, indicating potential volatility in the energy market [5] - Precious metals, particularly gold, have seen price fluctuations, with COMEX gold down by 0.15% to $3719.5 per ounce, reflecting broader market trends [6] Group 3 - The upcoming Federal Reserve decision is anticipated to announce the first interest rate cut in 2025, amidst challenges to the Fed's independence, which could influence market sentiment [8][10] - The appointment of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board and the ongoing legal challenges regarding the removal of Lisa Cook highlight the political pressures facing the Fed [9] - Concerns over the Fed's independence may lead to increased risk premiums for U.S. dollar assets, affecting investor confidence and potentially leading to a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges due to political interventions, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to a shift in monetary policy direction and increased market volatility [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Trump administration's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is seen as a critical test of the Fed's independence, raising concerns about political influence over monetary policy [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that Trump's potential nomination of a more dovish Fed chair could further undermine the Fed's independence and alter its policy stance [2][5][7]. - The ongoing legal and procedural challenges surrounding Cook's removal highlight the contentious nature of the relationship between the government and the Fed [3][6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump's interventions may lead to a more dovish monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts exceeding current market expectations, possibly bringing the policy rate down to 2.75% to 3% [7]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining predictable interest rate paths, and any perceived loss of this independence could increase uncertainty in monetary policy, affecting investor confidence [8][9]. - The potential for a return to inflationary pressures reminiscent of the 1970s is a concern if the Fed aligns its policies too closely with political pressures [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Investors may demand higher risk premiums for U.S. dollar assets due to the challenges to the Fed's independence, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [8][9]. - The uncertainty surrounding monetary policy could weaken the credibility of the dollar, prompting a shift towards "de-dollarization" among international investors [9]. - The recent surge in gold prices indicates a potential shift in investment strategies as market participants seek to hedge against the risks associated with U.S. monetary policy changes [9].

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing significant challenges, particularly due to the Trump administration's attempts to influence its leadership and monetary policy decisions [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The Trump administration plans to appeal a court ruling that prevents the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting ongoing tensions regarding the independence of the Fed [1]. - Stephen Milan, nominated by Trump, has taken office and participated in the Fed's September interest rate decision, indicating a shift in the Fed's dynamics [1]. - Trump's potential nomination of a more dovish Fed chair next year could further influence the Fed's monetary policy direction [1][6]. Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that Trump's interventions may lead to a more dovish monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts exceeding current market expectations [7]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining predictable interest rate paths, and any political pressure could undermine this stability [8]. - The risk of inflation may increase if the Fed aligns its policies with Trump's preferences, potentially leading to a repeat of the inflationary trends seen in the 1970s [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Impact - The challenges to the Fed's independence may result in higher risk premiums for U.S. dollar assets, affecting investor confidence [8][9]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasury bonds may steepen, with short-term rates declining more significantly than long-term rates due to changing market expectations [8]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability and monetary independence could lead to a decline in the dollar's credit risk, prompting a shift away from the dollar by international investors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the lowest level since the end of 2022, but the focus is on future monetary policy direction rather than the immediate rate cut [4][13]. Economic Conditions - The significant slowdown in the job market is a primary reason for the Fed's shift in policy [5]. - Recent data shows that from June to August, the average monthly job growth was only 29,000, far below the expected 150,000, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past year [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, the highest level this year, exceeding the 2% policy target, although concerns about inflation are being overshadowed by the urgency of declining employment [8]. Political Context - The upcoming Fed meeting is characterized by unprecedented political pressure, with President Trump advocating for a drastic rate cut to 1% and criticizing Fed Chair Powell [9][11]. - There are ongoing personnel disputes within the Fed, including attempts by Trump to influence board appointments, which could have long-term implications for Fed policy [11][12]. Market Focus - While a rate cut is anticipated, the market is more concerned with the Fed's future signals regarding monetary policy [13]. - Fed Chair Powell's emphasis on prioritizing employment over inflation will be closely monitored, as will the Fed's updated economic forecasts, which will influence market expectations for future rate cuts [14].

全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，9月16日白银etf持有量为15217.84吨，较上一交易日增持64.94吨。周二（9月16 日）现货白银尾盘收于42.52美元/盎司，下跌0.37%，盘中白银价格最高上探至42.96美元/盎司，最低触及42.24美元/盎司。 会议召开前，美联储内部的紧张气氛已因政治干预而加剧。美联储理事莉莎·库克（Lisa Cook）因涉嫌房贷申请中存在不实陈述， 遭到特朗普的解雇威胁。然而，一项联邦上诉法院的裁决以2比1的结果支持她继续履职，确保她能够参与本次会议。与此同时，特 朗普的高级顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）在未辞去白宫职务的情况下，火速宣誓就任美联储理事会空缺席位。令人意外的 是，他的宣誓仪式并未由鲍威尔或其他美联储理事主持，而是由亚特兰大联邦法官伊丽莎白·布兰奇（Elizabeth Branch）主持，这 一打破惯例的举动无疑为会议增添了更多政治色彩。 特朗普近期频频对美联储施压，公开呼吁大幅降息，并要求理事会从鲍威尔手中"接管控制权"。他在接受采访时表示，尽管美联储 有权自行决定利率政策，但"他们应该听听像我这样的 ...

1） 前一天总结 – 2025 年 9 月 16 日星期二 美国主要指数 所有主要指数均收平或略微下跌。 市场等待今天的美联储会议，降息 25 个基点已被定价。 尽管 8 月份零售销售报告强劲（增长 ~0.6%）出人意料地上涨，但投资者仍然保持谨慎。 美国政府阻止特朗普总统罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克，斯蒂芬·米兰被确认为美联储董事会成员。这些都增加了围绕美联储独立性的审查背景。 波动性和收益率 标准普尔 500 指数：▼ -0.13% 至 6,606 点 道琼斯指数：▼ -0.27% 至 45,757 点 纳斯达克 100 指数：▼ -0.08% 至 24,274 点 罗素 2000 指数：▼ -0.09% 至 2,403 点 VIX： ▲ +4.3% 16.36 美元。 美国10年期国债收益率 ▼ -0.20% 美国国债收益率小幅下降;10年期国债收益率为 4.026% 商品（结算/纽约晚些时候） 欧洲 欧洲当天总共下跌 ~1.14%，金融/房地产/工业占干。 奢侈品是一个加权损失的行业，法拉利 +2.6%。 顶级股票推动者 2. 今天的动向 – 2025 年 9 月 17 日星期三 市场亮点 因此，重大市场 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in response to the recent slowdown in the job market [2][3] - The meeting occurs at a politically sensitive time, with the Trump administration exerting pressure on the Fed to lower rates and attempting to influence its board composition [2][3] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the focus on employment weakness over persistent inflation, with some officials questioning the justification for a rate cut given the current unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation above the 2% target [3] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows a significant decline in non-farm payroll growth, averaging only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market [3] - The Fed faces challenges in determining the neutral interest rate, currently at 4.3%, with estimates for the neutral rate being adjusted upwards, suggesting the need for several more rate cuts to reach a neutral stance [3] - The quarterly economic projections and dot plot regarding the number of expected rate cuts for the year will be closely monitored by the market, with potential adjustments from two to three cuts [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming meeting represents a critical decision point for the Fed regarding its independence, political pressures, and economic judgments, with implications for both the U.S. and global economies [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve is increasing, particularly with the appointment of his ally, Stephen Milan, which raises expectations for interest rate cuts [1][3] - There is a strong speculation that the Federal Reserve may soon lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with Trump advocating for multiple cuts in the next couple of years [3] - The ongoing power struggle around the Federal Reserve highlights Trump's attempts to intervene in monetary policy, raising questions about the independence of the institution [7] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts, it could lead to increased global capital liquidity, potentially benefiting the Chinese market and A-shares [5] - A weaker dollar may result from the rate cuts, leading to a slight appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, which could enhance China's international purchasing power [5] - However, the appreciation of the yuan could also diminish the price competitiveness of Chinese exports, potentially impacting trade orders from American consumers [5]