Price Trends - Excluding food and energy, apparel experienced the largest price increase, rising by 0.7%, indicating the impact of tariff increases [1] - Audio and video equipment, a trade-intensive sector, increased by 1.6% year-over-year, marking the largest increase since 2021 [1]

Core Insights - The shoe designer has issued weaker-than-expected sales guidance, attributing the decline to tariffs [1] Company Summary - The company is facing challenges in sales performance due to external factors, specifically tariffs [1]

经济学家预计，9月整体CPI将环比上涨0.4%，与8月份的增速持平，同比增速则上升至3.1%，为5月以 来的最高水平，并高于2.7%的12个月平均水平。 剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后的核心CPI预计将环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨3.1%，均与8月份持平。 北京时间周五晚8点30分，美国将公布一份"姗姗来迟"的9月CPI数据，或显示通胀顽固地维持在3%左 右，这突显出关税和服务业的粘性正持续为美联储实现2%目标的道路制造麻烦。 美国银行经济学家Steven Juneau在周一发布的一份前瞻报告中表示，关税仍然是"商品价格通胀的来 源"，并且这种影响将在"未来几个季度"持续存在，尽管二手车价格的回落部分抵消了今夏早些时候给 通胀数据带来干扰的剧烈波动。 这也是自美国政府关门以来发布的首个重要联邦经济数据——此次关门已成为美国历史上第二长的政府 关门，且目前仍看不到结束的迹象。 Juneau补充说，非住房服务业通胀预计仅会小幅放缓，并警告称，由于医疗保健和交通等核心服务价格 的粘性依然很强，该类别将"高得令人不安"。 关税压力若隐若现 法国巴黎银行将9月份的CPI报告称为"评估我们基准预测的关键节点"，并指出"9月 ...

Group 1: Inflation and CPI Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to October 24, with economists expecting a month-over-month increase of 0.4% and a year-over-year increase of 3.1% [1] - Core inflation is projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with August's figures [1][4] - The increase in CPI is attributed to tariffs raising goods prices, with specific categories like clothing and furniture experiencing slight inflation due to these tariffs [4][5] Group 2: Housing Costs and Economic Outlook - A decrease in housing costs may alleviate inflationary pressures, as mortgage rates have declined from over 7.0% in January to 6.3% in September [6] - The normalization of housing costs is expected to release more inventory and lower home prices, contributing to a potential easing of inflation [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The futures market indicates a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a 96.1% chance of another cut in December [7] - The Federal Reserve is likely to focus on the labor market's performance rather than solely on CPI data, as labor market weakness could exert downward pressure on prices [10]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges in guiding the economy amid a weak labor market and persistent inflation, exacerbated by the government shutdown [1] - The shutdown has disrupted the Fed's access to essential economic data, complicating its ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and economic policies [1][2] - The Fed is now relying on alternative data sources to assess labor market conditions and consumer spending, which are critical for balancing economic growth and price stability [1] Economic Data Dependency - The lack of government data is significantly hindering the Fed's decision-making process, as government statistics are considered the "gold standard" for measuring the U.S. economy [2] - The last time the Fed operated without key government economic data was during the 2018-2019 government shutdown, where it had to rely on credit card transactions and auto sales data [2] - Economists express concerns that private sector data cannot fully substitute for government data, especially since government data serves as a benchmark for many private sector metrics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is steadily losing momentum, as indicated by various financial institutions and private sector data, despite the suspension of official data releases due to government shutdown [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Market Analysis - Multiple financial giants, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Carlyle Group, have independently confirmed a cooling labor market, providing critical insights beyond official data [2]. - Goldman Sachs' labor market tightness index has returned to levels seen in 2015, suggesting a more challenging environment for job seekers [2]. - Bank of America has identified new evidence of rising unemployment and slowing job growth through analysis of client salary and deposit data [2]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Job Growth Slowdown - Goldman Sachs attributes a slowdown of approximately 100,000 jobs to three main factors: reduced immigration, decreased government hiring, and rising macroeconomic uncertainty [3][4]. - Immigration contributions to monthly labor growth have declined from 90,000 at the beginning of the year to 40,000 by August, indicating a slowdown in labor supply growth [4]. - Government hiring has decreased, leading to a reduction in overall salary growth by about 30,000 jobs, compounded by a significant drop in federal contract spending [4]. Group 3: Economic Uncertainty and Its Impact - Companies are increasingly cautious in hiring decisions due to macroeconomic risks and trade uncertainties, with some firms cutting back on recruitment as a cost-saving measure in response to tariffs [5]. - Although tariffs have a limited direct impact on hiring, the associated uncertainty correlates with a decline in overall employment growth in affected industries [5]. Group 4: AI's Limited Impact - Despite discussions around AI replacing human jobs, current evidence suggests that AI's influence on the broader labor market is minimal, with specific sectors like marketing and design experiencing localized slowdowns [6].

Core Point - U.S. President Donald Trump announced the termination of all trade negotiations with Canada, attributing this decision to a Canadian advertising campaign that criticized the White House's tariffs [1] Group 1 - The decision to end trade negotiations is a direct response to the Canadian advertising campaign [1] - The campaign featured former officials and aimed to highlight the negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [1]

President Donald Trump announced Thursday that trade negotiations with Canada have been terminated over an advertisement featuring former President Ronald Reagan speaking out against tariffs. "The Ronald Reagan Foundation has just announced that Canada has fraudulently used an advertisement, which is FAKE, featuring Ronald Reagan speaking negatively about Tariffs," Trump wrote on Truth Social."The ad was for $75,000. They only did this to interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other cour ...

据央视新闻报道，当地时间23日晚，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体表示，罗纳德·里根基金会刚刚宣布，加拿大欺诈性地使用了一则虚假广告，表示 该基金会对关税发表了负面言论。该广告价值7.5万美元。加拿大这样做是为了干扰美国最高法院和其他法院的裁决。 特朗普称， 关税对美国的国家安全和经济至关重要。鉴于加方行为，美国特此终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判。 ...

特朗普：里根基金会刚刚宣布，加拿大欺诈性地使用了一则虚假广告，其中罗纳德·里根对关税发表了负面言论。这则广告花费了7.5万美元。他们这样做只是为了干扰美国最高法院和其他法院的裁决。关税对美国的国家安全和经济至关重要。鉴于他们恶劣的行为，我们特此终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判。 ...