Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant concerns regarding the stability of the oil supply chain, resulting in a sharp increase in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing their largest single-day gains in over three years, rising by more than 13% at one point [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Domestic energy futures in China surged collectively following the spike in international oil prices, with domestic crude oil futures hitting the limit up and closing nearly 8% higher, while fuel futures rose over 7% and low-sulfur fuel oil futures increased by more than 5% [2]. - Geopolitical risks have become the primary driver of the oil market, with market sentiment likely to support high oil prices in the short term. The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has weakened the dollar, further contributing to the upward momentum in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are primarily driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply, which is currently at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. A short-term disruption of this level could lead to a price premium of $3 to $4 per barrel, indicating that current prices may be significantly overvalued [4]. - Despite the short-term boost from geopolitical events, the long-term outlook for the oil market will likely revert to supply and demand fundamentals, with existing oversupply pressures remaining unaddressed [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following the recent price surge, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have broken through key resistance levels, indicating strong upward momentum. Brent crude has stabilized above $70 per barrel, which was previously a strong resistance level, while WTI has surpassed $72 per barrel [9]. - If oil prices maintain above $70 per barrel, the technical outlook remains bullish, with potential resistance levels identified between $80 and $82.5 per barrel for Brent, and $80 per barrel for WTI, suggesting that further geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [9].

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - WTI crude oil futures surged by 13% following Israel's airstrikes on Iran, which targeted nuclear facilities and military sites [1][3] - Iran accounts for 2% of global oil exports, and any disruption in supply could lead to significant price increases [3] - Historical trends suggest that geopolitical conflicts typically have a short-term impact on oil prices, with potential resistance at Brent prices above $70 due to ongoing OPEC+ production plans and U.S. shale oil production [3][5] Group 2: Gold Market Reaction - Gold prices rose to $3,435 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical risks [1][4] - The increase in gold ETF holdings indicates a shift in market risk appetite, although high interest rates from the Federal Reserve pose a long-term challenge for gold prices [4] - A potential easing of geopolitical tensions could lead to a correction in gold prices, suggesting caution for investors considering entering at current levels [4][5] Group 3: U.S. Policy Considerations - The U.S. stance on the situation is complex, with mixed signals regarding involvement in the conflict, which could further impact oil exports from Iran [5] - Any U.S. actions to restrict Iranian oil exports could lead to a second wave of price increases, although the likelihood of such actions remains low [5]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

·据以色列第13频道：一名以色列高级官员称，以色列正准备与伊朗进行"数日的战斗"。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/13 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/06/06 | 64.58 | 66.47 | 65.44 | 0.76 | 0.74 | -1.89 | 1.64 | 207.68 | 20.76 | 212.53 | 22.79 | | 2025/06/09 | 65.29 | 67.04 | 65.88 | 0.80 | 0.77 | -1.75 | 1.65 | 209.52 | 20.96 | 214.64 | 23 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Report's Core View - The crude oil market is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being mainly oscillatory, and intraday showing a tendency of oscillatory strength [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are the dominant factor, and crude oil is expected to run with an oscillatory upward trend. Domestic crude oil futures on Friday may maintain an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2508 is oscillatory and slightly stronger, and the reference view is a strong operation [1][5]. b. Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, international crude oil futures stopped falling and stabilized, then strengthened again. The domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract slightly rose 0.82% to 490.7 yuan/barrel [5]. c. Core Logic - Geopolitical factors have become an important driver for the rise of domestic and international crude oil futures prices. The escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and potential war have expanded geopolitical risks and increased the premium space for crude oil [5]. - From April to May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries only had a small increase in production, lower than the target, and negative factors were less than expected, leading to the continued recovery of oil prices [5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 13 日 LPG：地缘风险仍在，暂时观望避险 | | | LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2507 | 4,141 | 0.27% | 4,135 | -0.14% | | 期 货 | PG2508 | 4,027 | 0.35% | 4,036 | 0.22% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2507 | 44,315 | -1705 | 48,048 | -2362 | | | PG2508 | 11,935 | -969 | 49,087 | 1046 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 广州国产气对07合约价差 | 489 | | 500 | | | | 广州进口气对07合约价差 | 589 | | 590 | | | | | 本 周 | | 上 周 | | | 产业链重要 | PDH开工率 | 64.3% | | 63.0% | | ...

Group 1 - The historical trend indicates that for every 1% decline in the US dollar index, gold prices tend to rise by an average of 0.8% from 2000 to 2023 [2] - The current situation shows that the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, leading the dollar index to drop from a high of 114 to 105, which supports gold prices [2] - Key indicators to monitor include the actual yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, with a critical point at 0% and the current value at 1.4% [2] Group 2 - A rise of 10 points in the geopolitical risk index correlates with a short-term increase in gold prices by 2-3% [2] - When the US CPI year-on-year exceeds 5%, the annualized return rate for gold reaches 12% [2] - The current global inflation center has shifted to 4%, above the pre-pandemic level of 3% [2] Group 3 - Trigger conditions for significant gold price increases include a US unemployment rate above 4.5% and CPI falling below 3% [4] - If gold prices break through $2100, they could potentially reach $2300 [4] - Gold mining stocks are expected to benefit significantly, with potential price increases up to twice that of gold prices due to leverage effects [4] Group 4 - The historical reference from the 1970s stagflation period shows that gold prices increased by 12 times [4] - Investment strategies recommended include increasing holdings in gold ETFs (like GLD) and physical gold bars [4] - The global central banks' aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a surge in actual interest rates [4] Group 5 - The formula for gold allocation is based on the geopolitical risk index and inflation rate, indicating a calculated approach to investment [6] - Gold is viewed as a "ballast" during turbulent times, with expectations for it to potentially break historical highs in 2024 due to multiple driving factors [6] - The essence of gold allocation is seen as purchasing "insurance" rather than seeking excess returns [7] Group 6 - The average premium for Shanghai gold in 2023 was $7 per ounce, peaking at $35 per ounce [7] - The strategy includes buying physical gold domestically and hedging with overseas futures [7] - The potential approval of Bitcoin ETFs could divert 20% of safe-haven funds away from gold [7]

| 112 | > 国技期货 | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月12日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | なな☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 文文☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价大涨，SC07合约日内上涨3.01%。中美就落实两国元首通话共识及日内瓦会谈共识达成框架，目前来看 本轮磋商结果聚焦在双方取消5月以来的部分出口管制,而将于8月中旬豁免到期的24%对等关税仍有待谈判。特朗普 表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱。凌晨美国方面通知美国在中东人员部分撤离,中东地缘风险急剧升温。原油对极 端供应冲击情景迅速定价。上周EIA原油库存超预期下降364. 4万桶，亦对原油偏强走势构成支撑。原油短期 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 2952.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3020.00 CNY, reflecting a 3.05% increase [1] - The current fuel oil sales in China are 44,200 tons, up from 43,100 tons in the previous period, indicating a 2.55% increase [1] - The inventory rate for domestic fuel oil is at 6.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous period's 5.6% [1] Group 2 - ARA region fuel oil inventories have decreased, which is favorable for fuel oil prices [2] - The trade demand is recovering as tariff disputes move towards agreement, which is expected to support fuel oil prices [2] - The cost side is seeing a rebound in crude oil prices, which is anticipated to drive fuel oil prices higher [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly. The short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is oscillatory and bullish. It is anticipated that the domestic crude oil futures on Thursday will maintain an oscillatory and bullish trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the crude oil 2507 contract, the short - term, medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and bullish. The reference view is a bullish run, with the core logic being the intensification of geopolitical risks [1]. 3.2 Price Quotes and Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Energy and Chemicals Sector of Commodity Futures - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is a bullish run. The core logic includes positive signals from the China - US leaders' phone call, the potential cooling of the China - US tariff war, the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, concerns about the breakdown of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, as well as the OPEC+ countries' lower - than - expected production increase in April - May. International crude oil futures prices rose by over 5% on Wednesday night, and the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract closed up 3.37% to 497.4 yuan per barrel [5].