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如何理解货币政策的“灵活把握”?——2025年一季度货币政策执行报告解读
申万宏源宏观· 2025-05-10 14:29
摘要 事件: 5月09日,央行发布2025年一季度货币政策执行报告(以下简称《报告》)。 经济形势分析:当前外部冲击影响加大,我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固。 央行对外部环境关注度显著提高,《报告》指出"当前外部冲击影响加大,世界经济增长动能不足,贸易 保护主义抬头,地缘冲突持续存在"。 2024年四季度报告对应表述是"当前外部环境变化带来的不利影响 加深"。两次相比较,本次更加突出了外部环境的不利影响,显示出央行密切关注美国单边贸易保护主义 对我国经济的扰动。 央行肯定一季度经济表现,并强调要"要坚定发展信心,以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境变化的不确 定性"。 2024年四季度报告认为"国内需求不足、风险隐患仍然较多等困难挑战也还存在",而本次报告则 认为"我国经济持续回升向好的基础还需要进一步稳固"。针对下一阶段,央行强调我国具备诸多优势条 件,经济长期向好的基本趋势没有改变。 政策基调:灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏,降低银行负债成本。 总基调方面,《报告》提出"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏",后续货币政策或更重视执行过程中的动 态响应。 《报告》将上季度报告的"择机调整优化",修改为"灵活 ...
一季度货币政策执行报告折射中国经济运行亮点 释放“向上向优”积极信号
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-05-10 10:24
央视网消息:5月9日,中国人民银行发布2025年一季度中国货币政策执行报告。报告显示,一季度货币政策逆周期调节效果明显,人民币 汇率在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。 专家表示,从一季度货币政策报告可以看出具体政策操作进一步优化,比如调整中期借贷便利(MLF)中标方式、优化两项资本市场支 持工具,将支农再贷款和支小再贷款合并为支农支小再贷款等。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示,在各项货币政策支持下,货币信贷合理增长,社会综合融资成本稳步下行,信贷结构进一步优化,持续多 年、多次降准降息的累积效应不断显现,社会融资环境总体处于较为宽松状态。 一季度货币政策执行报告解读:加大支持实体经济力度 支持扩大消费 专家表示,一季度货币政策执行报告中,新的政策信号不断释放,包括进一步加大支持实体经济力度、支持扩大消费等。 在进一步加大支持实体经济力度方面,报告释放出积极的信号,货币政策持续保持适度宽松力度。在支持扩大消费方面,报告对此进行了 专题论述,5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款也于9日正式推出。市场预计,未来服务领域的消费潜力有望进一步激发释放。 我国广义政府总资产相当于GDP的166%,总负债相当于GDP的75%,净资产约占 ...
金融服务实体经济成效持续提升
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2025-05-10 00:30
人民银行海南省分行引导信贷资源向重点领域、薄弱环节倾斜,金融助力经济高质量发展力度进一 步加大。 金融服务实体经济成效持续提升 一季度海南本外币各项贷款余额超1.3万亿元 海南日报海口5月9日讯(海南日报全媒体记者 王培琳)5月9日,人民银行海南省分行召开2025年第 二季度新闻发布会,海南日报全媒体记者从发布会上获悉,截至3月末,全省本外币各项贷款余额13014 亿元,比年初增加314亿元,同比多增60亿元,同比增长6.9%,增速高于上年同期0.7个百分点。 据介绍,人民银行海南省分行对标海南自贸港封关运作要求,扎实推进金融服务实体经济、自贸港 金融高水平开放等各项工作。加大力度落实适度宽松货币政策,金融服务实体经济成效持续提升。其 中,综合运用窗口指导、央行结构性货币政策工具等多种措施,指导银行业金融机构加大信贷投放,对 实体经济的信贷支持作用明显增强。 截至3月末,全省本外币各项贷款余额13014亿元;各项存款余额15093亿元,同比增长10.4%,增速 高于上年同期4个百分点,高于全国平均水平3.5个百分点。其中,住户存款余额8079亿元,同比增长 10.8%,增速高于上年同期0.7个百分点。 与此同 ...
央行发布最新货政报告
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-05-09 12:37
5月9日,央行官网发布《2025年第一季度中国货币政策执行报告》(以下简称《报告》)。 其次,支持扩大消费。在外需对经济增长的支撑作用趋弱的背景下,提振消费成为当前扩内需、稳增长 的关键点。报告对此进行了专题论述,服务消费与养老再贷款也于近日正式推出。业内普遍预期,未来 服务领域的消费潜力有望进一步激发释放。 再次,我国可有力应对外部冲击。专家表示,美国关税政策对全球经济金融秩序带来明显冲击,报告多 次提及"关税政策",显示政策层面对此高度关注,宏观政策已在积极应对、重点发力,稳定外贸也将成 为未来政策支持的一个重要方向。 对于市场高度关注的货币政策,业内普遍认为,适度宽松货币政策将持续发力。去年一揽子增量政策对 稳定经济发挥了关键作用,今年财政、货币、产业等政策持续发力,存量和增量政策协同效应增强,宏 观政策协调配合进一步强化,以有力有效的政策应对外部环境的不确定性。5月7日国新办发布会上,中 国人民银行行长潘功胜还宣布了三大类十项举措的一揽子金融政策,包括降准、降息、创设并优化结构 性货币政策工具、推出支持科技创新的新政策工具等,起到了稳市场稳预期的积极作用。在遭受外部冲 击的关键时点,这一揽子政策出台实 ...
省委常委会召开会议认真学习贯彻习近平总书记重要讲话重要指示精神研究谋划我省“十五五”时期经济社会发展 部署推进人工智能发展和工会、办公厅等工作黄坤明主持会议
Nan Fang Ri Bao Wang Luo Ban· 2025-05-09 02:14
Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the importance of advancing artificial intelligence (AI) development and governance, reflecting a strategic focus on this technology [2] - The province aims to optimize its approach to AI, targeting cutting-edge advancements and enhancing its industrial capabilities through initiatives like "AI+" [2] - There is a commitment to strengthen the foundational elements of AI development, including talent cultivation and infrastructure support, while ensuring a healthy regulatory environment [2] Group 2 - The meeting highlighted the strategic priorities for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and modernization in Guangdong [3] - Key areas of focus include strengthening the real economy, advancing technological competitiveness, and promoting regional economic growth through initiatives like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [3] - The meeting called for a concentrated effort to achieve annual goals and ensure a solid foundation for the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [3] Group 3 - The meeting underscored the significance of the labor movement and the role of trade unions in promoting workers' rights and responsibilities [4] - There is a push to enhance the quality of union work and foster a professional cadre to support high-quality development in the labor sector [4] Group 4 - The meeting addressed the need for provincial offices to implement directives from the central government, focusing on improving service levels and political integrity [5] - Emphasis was placed on enhancing the capabilities of government offices to better serve the modernization efforts in Guangdong [5]
农行福建三明分行:“贷”动一家店 滋养沙县小吃整条链
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-05-08 07:13
Core Viewpoint - The Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) in Sanming has launched a comprehensive financial service plan for the Shaxian snack industry, aiming to enhance the entire industrial chain from agricultural production to food processing and restaurant services [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Support and Products - ABC Sanming provides significant credit support to core ingredient planting and breeding enterprises, alleviating seasonal cash flow pressures in agricultural production [3]. - The bank promotes inclusive financial products like "Zhihua Loan" for food processing and standardized production enterprises, enhancing production efficiency and scale [3]. - Directly targeting small business owners, ABC Sanming offers tailored financial tools such as "Huinong e-loan" and "Fumin Loan" to meet their short-term funding needs [3]. Group 2: Cultural and Economic Impact - The story of Hou Xiaosong, a third-generation inheritor of Shaxian snack techniques, exemplifies how ABC's financial support has enabled local businesses to upgrade and thrive, with his annual net profit exceeding 300,000 yuan [2]. - ABC Sanming's efforts reflect a commitment to nurturing the entire Shaxian snack industry, contributing to local economic development and cultural heritage preservation [2][3]. - As of March this year, ABC Sanming has supported over 4,100 clients in the snack industry with nearly 940 million yuan in credit, significantly bolstering the prosperity and development of this vital local industry [3].
三部门推出一揽子金融政策
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-05-08 00:58
支持实体经济稳定增长 5月7日上午,国新办举行新闻发布会,中国人民银行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局长李云泽、中国证监 会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况,并回答记者提问。 发布会上,潘功胜宣布,人民银行将加大宏观调控强度,推出一揽子货币政策措施,共十项措施。一是 降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计向市场提供中长期流动性约1万亿元。二是完善存款准备金制度, 阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率从目前的5%调降至0%。三是下调政策利率0.1个 百分点,公开市场7天期逆回购利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%,预计带动LPR下行约0.1个百分点。四是 下调结构性货币政策利率0.25个百分点,包括各类专项结构性工具利率、支农支小再贷款利率,均从目 前的1.75%降至1.5%,抵押补充贷款利率降至2%。五是降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点,五 年期以上首套房贷款利率由2.85%降至2.6%,其他期限的利率同步调整。六是增加3000亿元科技创新和 技术改造再贷款,由目前的5000亿元增至8000亿元。七是设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款。八是增 加支农支小再贷款3000亿元。 ...
丹阳眼镜大显身手正当时 ——市委书记马明龙书记署名文章《丹阳有“镜”界》引发各界共鸣
Zhen Jiang Ri Bao· 2025-05-08 00:04
"文章中'丹阳人研究镜片,是为了让更多人不依赖眼镜',这句话说出了我们的心声!"丹阳市眼视 光研究学会秘书长朱建强表示,近年来,丹阳企业依托政策红利,将传统镜片从"矫正工具"升级为"视 力干预系统"。要实现"让更多人不依赖眼镜"的愿景,还需要在技术破壁和价值链提升方面下功夫。"丹 阳眼镜大显身手正当时,希望丹阳生产的每一副眼镜,都是在为大众视力健康保驾护航!" "历经50余年的发展演化,丹阳眼镜已然实现了从生产型集群到创新型集群,再到产业创新集群的 迭代和蜕变,凸显新发展格局下产业空间布局更优、产业配套系统更全、产业创新氛围更浓的典型产业 集群特征。"江苏大学财经学院院长、江苏大学产业经济研究院院长胡绪华认为,未来丹阳眼镜集群发 展将呈现三大趋势。第一,顺应数字时代发展需求,形成数字经济与实体经济深度融合的产业公地,发 挥市场先行优势,力促眼镜产业向智能穿戴设备渗透,服务元宇宙产业发展。第二,面向新质生产力发 展任务要求,形成科技创新与产业创新深度融合的创新高地,发挥区位优势,加强高校、研发机构、专 业创新平台合作,一体化推进"教育-科技-人才"机制,服务转化眼镜产业。第三,立足经济发展中产业 链供应链韧性与 ...
央行宣布降准降息,股市和楼市谁受到的影响更大?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 23:37
预期管理,常见于欧美成熟市场。通过预期利好提振市场,市场也受益于预期性的朦胧利好而不断走高。与实质性的利好措施相比,朦胧的利好预期,更容 易满足市场的情绪需求,当朦胧利好得到兑现之后,市场总想着更大的利好预期。从短期的角度分析,股市行情受到市场情绪波动的影响,但从中长期的角 度考虑,股市行情表现与经济基本面、上市公司盈利水平高度相关,这也是影响着股票市场的价值运行中枢水平。 在央行降准降息的背后,股市与楼市,谁受到的影响更大? 其中,央行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点,预计向市场提供中长期流动性达到1万亿元左右。与此同时,下调政策利率0.1个百分点,此举将会带动LPR的小 幅下行。LPR下行,有望带动存量房贷利率的继续下降,为存量房贷的购房者减轻房贷压力。 此外,此次政策层面还降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点。其中,5年期以上首套房利率从2.85%降低至2.6%,其他期限利率目标也会同步调整。 从直接影响分析,此次央行降准降息有利于缓解股市、楼市的流动性压力,通过政策利好传递出稳定股市、楼市的信号。在现阶段内,提振市场的投资信 心,缓解市场的流动性压力是稳定市场的关键措施。 央行降准降息,并不局限于 ...
金融部门打出重磅“组合拳”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-07 23:11
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of monetary policies to stabilize the economy and promote high-quality development in response to external uncertainties [1][2][12]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced 10 measures to enhance macroeconomic control, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The PBOC will lower the policy interest rate by 0.1%, bringing the 7-day reverse repurchase rate down from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - A 0.25% reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools will be implemented, affecting various special structural tools and re-lending rates [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will be reduced by 0.25%, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. - An increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan will support the implementation of new policies [5]. Financial Regulatory Policies - The National Financial Regulatory Administration announced eight incremental policies to enhance the effectiveness of existing policies and support economic recovery [6]. - New financing systems will be introduced to stabilize the real estate market and expand the long-term investment pilot scope for insurance funds [7][8]. - Policies will be developed to support small and private enterprises, as well as to assist businesses affected by tariffs [9][10]. Capital Market Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to introduce a package of financial policies to stabilize the capital market and enhance investor confidence [12]. - Reforms in public funds will focus on aligning the interests of fund companies with investors, including a performance-based fee structure [12][13]. - The CSRC will revise regulations to support mergers and acquisitions, enhancing the capacity for innovation and risk management in listed companies [13]. Market Performance - On May 7, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.80% to 3342.67 points [14]. - Approximately 3300 stocks rose, with significant gains in sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and agriculture [15]. - Analysts suggest that the newly announced financial policies are expected to boost market liquidity and support the transition to high-quality economic development [15].