Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis points rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%[1] - This is the first rate cut since December 2024, aligning with market expectations[1] - The FOMC's statement emphasized a slowdown in economic activity, removing previous references to net export volatility[1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The statement noted that employment growth has slowed, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains low[2] - Recent employment data showed August non-farm payrolls below expectations, contributing to the decision to cut rates[2] - Current inflation rates are above the Fed's long-term target of 2%, with core PCE prices showing upward pressure[2] Group 3: Future Projections - The dot plot indicates that most Fed officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025, with a significant increase in the number of officials anticipating three cuts this year[4] - The median federal funds rate projections for 2026 and 2027 were lowered to 3.4% and 3.1%, respectively, reflecting expectations of ongoing economic pressure[4] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management measure" to balance employment and inflation amid a complex economic landscape[4]

汇通财经APP讯——在美联储政策决策的关键时刻，新任理事米兰以独立姿态亮相，他公开表示将独立 分析经济数据，并在周一（9月22日）的纽约发言中全面阐述自己的利率观点。这位新上任的理事强 调，自己没有从特朗普总统那里收到任何政策指示，这不仅缓解了市场对美联储独立性的疑虑，还凸显 出当前利率政策的分歧。米兰支持更大幅度的降息，与美联储主流共识形成鲜明对比，而明尼亚波利斯 联储主席卡什卡利则认为米兰的上任不过是常规人事变动，并对美联储的公众信任表示乐观。整个事件 反映出美国经济政策在就业、通胀和政治影响之间的微妙平衡，值得投资者密切关注。 米兰的独立政策宣言 米兰作为美联储的新任理事，在上周五（9月19日）的公开表态中明确强调了自己的独立性。他表示， 自己将基于对经济数据的客观解读来制定政策，不会受到外部干扰。这位理事刚刚在上周的会议中宣誓 就职，并在会上支持降息50个基点，这让他成为唯一持此观点的人。米兰承认自己的立场与众不同，并 承诺将在周一的发言中详细解释背后的经济逻辑和计算过程。他认为，当前的利率水平距离"中性"还有 较大差距，经济中不存在明显的通胀风险，尤其是在严格移民政策的影响下，住房需求将受到抑制，从 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 虽然美元指数因美联储预计 2026 年之后大幅放缓降息步伐以及英国央行放 缓缩表步伐、日本央行按兵不动等信息而连续三个交易日回升，但市场乐观评估 特朗普政府压力下的美联储降息进程，伦敦黄金在 3630 美元/盎司附近企稳小幅 反弹。4 月下旬至 8 月份金价横盘震荡消化高估值压力，但美联储降息东风助推 金价于 9 月初突破阻力而开启新一轮上涨趋势，本轮涨势或延续至 2026 年春夏之 交，建议投资者继续持多头思路参与贵金属交易，空头套保者可适当 ...

利率点阵图本意是与市场沟通决策透明度，结果让大家看清会议室里毫无头绪。 9月份议息会议不是美联储主席鲍威尔主持的，美国总统特朗普在美联储会议室墙上投下肥胖的身影。斯蒂芬·米兰作为白宫经济顾问委员会主席，由特朗普 提名以停薪留职的身份经国会确认，成为美联储理事参加本次会议。特朗普安插米兰，提出要解雇美联储理事库克，财长贝森特公开批评货币政策，透露启 动下任主席人选面试。市场心领神会地把降息25个基点概率交易到了100%。 米兰首秀对降息25个基点投出一张反对票。政策点阵图上有一个黑点落在3%以下，预测年内还要降息100个基点。这个黑点远离落在3.75%附近的十几个黑 点，让点阵图形成了一个感叹号。坊间猜测这个黑点就是米兰。 7月份会议之后就业数据大幅调整，连续几个月的用工岗位数从原先15万上下被调低到只有2万多。失业率升高到4.3%，就业目标压力增大。另一边通胀并 未明显回落，居民消费甚至好于预期。金融市场在AI情绪和降息预期推动下创出新高。经济预测（SEP）调高今年GDP增长到1.6%（明年1.8%），失业率维 持在4.5%（明年4.4%），通胀PCE维持在3.0%（明年2.6%），政策利率降低25点到3.6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, but internal divisions among officials regarding future rate cuts have emerged, leading to a temporary misalignment between market expectations and the Fed's stance [1][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Controversy - Among the 19 Federal Reserve officials, 9 support no further rate cuts or only one more cut this year, while another 9 believe that a total cut of 75 basis points is warranted, suggesting cuts in October and December [3]. - One official advocates for a more aggressive cut of 125 basis points, with market speculation pointing to this individual being Milan [3]. - The market anticipates two more rate cuts this year, with probabilities exceeding 80% for October and December, despite Powell's emphasis on the need for data-driven decisions at each meeting [3]. Group 2: Shift in Focus - Powell noted that while the economy is slowing, there are still positive indicators, with GDP growth at 1.5% for the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year [5]. - There is an increasing risk in the labor market, with job creation slowing below the level needed to maintain the unemployment rate, while inflation risks are decreasing [5]. - The focus of rate cuts in the second half of the year is shifting towards improving the labor market, with the Fed awaiting more data on non-farm payrolls and core PCE before making further decisions [5]. Group 3: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the current rate cuts may improve the labor market but could also introduce inflation risks, with expectations of rising inflation in the first quarter of next year [7]. - The Federal Reserve officials are currently oscillating between 50 and 75 basis points for potential cuts, highlighting the importance of upcoming employment data [7]. - The gold market is experiencing a technical adjustment phase, with bullish positions taking a breather, awaiting further data to drive prices upward, with potential to challenge the $4,000 mark [7].

两害相权取其轻？ 美联储此次降息，并非单一因素驱动，而是多重压力交织下的审慎抉择。 北京时间9月18凌晨，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%。据了解，这是美联储2025年第一次降 息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 多位受访专家以及分析机构认为，此次降息符合市场预期，是在通胀压力犹存、就业市场趋软的复杂形势中，美联储基于"双重 使命"权衡后的主动调整。正如美联储主席鲍威尔所言，当前面临"通胀风险偏向上行、就业风险偏向下行"的两难局面。 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会发布声明称，今年上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓，就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升，通 货膨胀率上升并在一定程度上保持高位。委员会寻求长期实现就业最大化和2%的通货膨胀率，并注意到了任务所面临的风险。 鲍威尔表示："短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，就业风险偏向下行——这是一个棘手的局面。当我们的目标像这样产生冲突时，我 们的框架要求我们在双重使命的两个方面之间取得平衡。由于就业面临的下行风险有所增加，风险平衡已经发生了变化。" 数据印证了美联储的担忧。美国劳工部9月5日公布的非农业部门就业数据显示，8月美国非农就业人 ...

在凤凰湾区财经论坛2025前夕，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院实践教授胡捷表示，预计今年美联储可 能还将有两次降息，每次降息25个基点，而明年降息次数可能更多。他分析指出，当前通胀率形势相对 乐观，同时就业市场呈现走弱迹象。美联储在两者之间的权衡结果，或将促使它开启降息通道。 ...

Group 1 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers expressed concerns that the Federal Reserve's policies are becoming too accommodative, emphasizing that the biggest risk facing the U.S. economy is inflation rather than the labor market [1] - Summers noted that the balance of risks has shifted towards inflation, stating that the current policy execution appears overly lenient compared to public perception [1] - Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in a year, Summers highlighted the need for vigilance against inflation, warning that the U.S. could deviate from its 2% inflation target [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's latest forecast report indicates an upward revision in inflation expectations for next year, with the PCE price index projected to rise by 2.6% in 2024, higher than the previous estimate of 2.4% [1] - Summers commented on the political pressure exerted by Trump and his allies on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, underscoring the necessity of maintaining a commitment to combating inflation [2] - He expressed uncertainty about the extent of concessions made by the Federal Reserve in response to political pressures, indicating that more decisive action is needed [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to between 4% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and following three cuts in 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that the weak labor market is the primary concern, and lowering rates will help the struggling workforce [1] - Despite slowing job growth, inflation remains high, and tariffs are impacting prices, indicating that the Fed is more worried about employment than inflation risks [1] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a newly appointed Fed governor, cast the only dissenting vote, arguing for a 50 basis point cut instead [3] - Concerns about the Trump administration's tariff policies potentially driving inflation higher have led the Fed to maintain higher rates earlier this year [3] - The Fed's dot plot indicates a median forecast of a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts for the remaining two policy meetings of the year, with only one cut expected in 2026 [3] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the rate cut aligns with market expectations, but the outlook for further cuts remains uncertain due to potential inflation increases [5] - Liu Gang, Chief Analyst at CICC, stated that while the rate cut slightly supports employment risks, inflation is likely to rise in the coming months [5] Group 4 - Following the Fed's announcement, the U.S. stock market closed mixed, with analysts suggesting that the market's reaction was muted due to prior significant gains [7]

来源：川阅全球宏观 我们一直强调，降息是问题的开始，不是结束。降多了、降快了，通胀是风险；降少了、降慢了，特朗普是风险。点阵图暗示年内75bp降息，相较6月增 加了25bp，还是契合了鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上谨慎宽松的论调，但这和米兰及其背后白宫想要的150bp相差不小。美联储的独立性之争才刚刚开始。 往后看，劳动力市场降温与通胀粘性的"数据悖论"，米兰任命带来的政治博弈等都使得美联储的决策面临"两难"局面，也将后续宽松路径的走势推向复杂 化。在白宫的施压下，市场可能还是会时不时定价年内比75bp更多的降息。而从经济动态来看，我们依旧对持续宽松后的增长和通胀组合保持持续关注， 连续降息不会一帆风顺，在特朗普的政策组合下，"金发女郎式"的软着陆（增长复苏+低通胀）难度更大，"滞"和"胀"的按钮更容易被触发。 9月利率如期下调25bp，意料之外的是，美联储官员展现出了高度的团结性。此前市场预期的沃勒和鲍曼并未对此投出反对票，仅米兰一人支持降息 50bp，表明联储内部并未完全因受迫于政治压力而做出过度激进的表态。 但相较于降息本身，更值得关注的是会议传递出的政策信号。从会议声明、鲍威尔后续的表态以及点阵图上，本次会 ...