撰 文 / 刘宝华 设 计 / 琚 佳 世事无常。 上周最大的行业新闻应该是奥迪全球CEO高德诺公开宣布奥迪撤回原定于2033年停止研发和销售内 燃机汽车的计划，不再设定明确终止时间表。 奥迪之前，奔驰、宝马、沃尔沃、福特已经先后调整了全面电动化计划，改为燃油车与电动化双线 并行。 对电动化最保守的丰田成了最大赢家。丰田截至2025年3月31日的2025财年净利润合人民币2364亿 元，相当于比亚迪、上汽集团、长安汽车、广汽集团、吉利汽车、长城汽车、北京汽车7大上市车 企利润总和的3倍。 搞电动车的越搞越穷，不搞电动车的富得流油。 最能赚钱的车企也开始摇摆。也是上周的消息，法拉利原计划2026年推出的第二款纯电动车型被推 迟到最早2028年推出。这已经是这款车第二次推迟时间表。接近法拉利的消息源称"目前高性能电 动车的需求为0"。 这句话有些残酷，但或许揭示了电动车的市场规律——从品牌、车型、价格、性能各个维度，电动 车都在中低端更容易成功，越高端对电动车来说越困难。 以特斯拉为例，中低端车型 Model Y、 Model 3占总销量超过95%，中高端车型 Model X、 Model S 占比不足5%， 当 ...

Core Insights - Global automotive companies are adjusting their strategies in response to strong growth momentum, rapid development of emerging car manufacturers, and the uncertainty of U.S. trade policies [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) will grow by 25% by 2025, reaching 17 million units, with hybrids and BEVs accounting for one in four new cars [1] - Japanese automakers are shifting their focus towards hybrid vehicles, moving away from previous skepticism towards battery electric vehicles [1] Group 1: Toyota's Strategy - Toyota's new "collaborative system" emphasizes cooperation with cutting-edge companies and focuses on developing "software-defined vehicles" (SDVs) [2] - The company maintains a comprehensive strategy that includes fuel, hybrid, hydrogen, fuel cells, and electric vehicles, with a particular emphasis on hybrid and battery electric vehicles [2] - Toyota is expanding its hybrid technology, having released the sixth generation RAV4 and a modified Corolla, showcasing its commitment to hybrid systems [2] Group 2: Honda's Strategy - Honda's "2025 business revision" aims to enhance competitiveness through smart and electric vehicle technologies [3] - The company has reduced its planned investment in battery electric vehicles from 10 trillion yen to 7 trillion yen, a 30% decrease, and lowered its target for BEV sales from 30% to 20% of total sales by 2030 [3] - Honda plans to introduce at least 13 new models based on its third-generation hybrid system, i-MMD, after 2027 [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for hybrid vehicles is increasing globally, while the demand for battery electric vehicles is weakening [5] - Honda predicts a 30% reduction in global BEV sales by 2030, citing a shift in environmental regulations in the U.S. and Europe [5] - Japanese automakers, including Nissan, are also focusing on hybrid vehicles to capitalize on market demand [6][7] Group 4: Supply Chain Challenges - The battery supply chain poses significant challenges for Japanese automakers, particularly due to the country's lack of mineral resources [8] - Japan's reliance on imports for key battery materials, such as lithium, creates uncertainty in production [10] - Japanese companies lag behind Chinese firms in battery production capacity, with major Chinese companies dominating the market [9] Group 5: Environmental Considerations - Hybrid vehicles contribute to carbon neutrality while reducing reliance on batteries [11] - The presence of 10 million hybrid vehicles in Japan has led to a 23% reduction in CO2 emissions from automobiles [11] - The development of hybrid vehicles is seen as a viable path towards achieving electric vehicle goals while addressing resource dependency [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned at a turning point in its operations, with a clear recovery in profitability and a slowdown in capital expenditures [2][4]. - The battery box business is identified as a significant growth driver, with strong momentum expected [2][4]. - Strategic collaboration in the robotics sector is anticipated to create a new growth curve for the company [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading global supplier of automotive exterior and structural components, operating in 14 countries with 77 factories and a diverse product line [1]. - It has evolved through three major development phases: initial establishment, lightweight transformation, and innovative development [1][14]. Operational Turning Point - Capital expenditure is projected to decrease, with the ratio of capital expenditure to revenue falling to 8% in 2024, the lowest in a decade [32][46]. - The company expects a recovery in gross margin and return on equity (ROE), with 2024 gross margin at 28.94% and net margin at 10.26% [32][41]. Traditional Business Segments - The traditional business segments, including metal trims, plastic parts, and aluminum components, continue to show stable growth [53]. - Revenue from metal trims is projected at 54.9 billion yuan with a gross margin of 27.8% in 2024 [53]. - The plastic segment is expanding into smart exterior integrated products, with revenue expected to reach 58.7 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.1% [57]. Key Growth Segment: Battery Boxes - The battery box segment is expected to generate 53.4 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, marking a 51% increase year-on-year [61]. - The European market for new energy vehicles is anticipated to drive significant growth in this segment, with the company positioned as a key supplier [64]. Robotics Business Expansion - The company has formed a strategic partnership with Zhiyuan Robotics, focusing on smart exteriors and integrated solutions, which is expected to contribute to new revenue streams [3]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 271 billion yuan, 321 billion yuan, and 380 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 27.2 billion yuan, 31.9 billion yuan, and 37.4 billion yuan [4].

Group 1: Automotive Market Overview - As of the end of May 2025, the national passenger car inventory in China stood at 3.45 million units, a decrease of 50,000 units from the previous month but an increase of 160,000 units compared to May 2024, indicating a sustained high inventory level [1] - The current inventory supports a sales duration of 54 days, which is slightly higher than 54 days in May 2023 and 51 days in May 2024, suggesting increased overall inventory pressure [1] Group 2: New Product Launches - Li Auto's first pure electric SUV, the Li i8, is set to be launched in late July 2023, with preparations for production, training, and delivery nearing completion [2] - Jianghuai Automobile Group is accelerating the development of the second and third products under the ZunJie brand, following the mass production of the ZunJie S800 [3] Group 3: Corporate Responses and Strategies - NIO has responded to speculation regarding bringing in strategic investors for its chip business, stating that such information is speculative [2] - Changan Automobile has initiated an investigation into organized smear campaigns against its brand, confirming the validity of reports regarding malicious activities on social media [3] - Audi has issued a statement affirming its commitment to electric mobility and the need for a flexible product portfolio that includes BEVs, PHEVs, and ICE vehicles, acknowledging market differences globally [4][5] Group 4: Joint Ventures and Collaborations - Toyota Tsusho and LG Energy Solution have announced plans to establish a joint venture for automotive battery recycling in North Carolina, aiming to create a supply chain for recycling materials like nickel, cobalt, and lithium for new battery production, with operations expected to start in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Ferrari is transitioning towards electric vehicles, with a significant portion of its sales now coming from hybrid models, but faces challenges in the high-performance electric vehicle market due to weak demand and technical limitations [4][8][11]. Group 1: Electric Vehicle Strategy - Ferrari began selling hybrid models in 2019, with hybrids accounting for 51% of its sales last year [4]. - The company plans to unveil its first electric vehicle in three phases starting in October this year, with global launch expected in spring next year and first customer deliveries set for October 2026 [7]. - The second electric vehicle, initially planned for 2026, has been postponed to at least 2028 due to insufficient demand for high-performance electric vehicles [8][11]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The lack of engine noise in electric vehicles is a significant drawback for wealthy buyers, and manufacturers struggle with issues like heavy batteries and insufficient sustained power, limiting the appeal of electric vehicles in the high-performance segment [9]. - Internal sources indicate that the second electric vehicle is seen as a pivotal point in Ferrari's electric strategy, while the first model is viewed more as a symbolic milestone [12]. Group 3: Long-term Goals - Ferrari previously announced a long-term plan to launch 15 new models over five years, aiming for electric and hybrid vehicles to make up 80% of total sales by 2030 [20]. - The CEO stated that pure electric vehicles are expected to account for 5% of sales by 2025 and 40% by 2030, while hybrid sales are projected to rise from 20% in 2021 to 55% by 2025 before declining to 40% by 2030 [20]. Group 4: Industry Context - Other luxury car manufacturers are also delaying or scaling back their electric strategies due to low consumer interest, with Lamborghini and Porsche making similar adjustments to their electric vehicle timelines [23][24].

Core Insights - Mercedes-Benz is facing significant backlash from customers due to widespread vehicle system failures, particularly affecting navigation and CarPlay functionalities, with no official response from the company [1][3][12] - The failure is attributed to a potential error during an OTA update that may have deleted essential system files, leading to a lack of communication from Mercedes-Benz regarding the issue [3][4] - The incident highlights Mercedes-Benz's struggles in digital transformation and smart technology integration compared to competitors like Volkswagen and BMW, who are actively collaborating with local tech firms [4][8] Group 1: System Failures and Customer Reactions - Numerous Mercedes-Benz owners reported issues with their vehicle systems, including navigation and voice control, with some expressing frustration over the lack of timely resolution [1][4] - Initial communications from the company suggested a temporary backend issue, but no concrete timeline for resolution was provided, leading to further dissatisfaction among customers [3][4] - The incident marks a significant failure for a traditional automaker like Mercedes-Benz, which is expected to have more reliable systems compared to newer entrants in the market [4][5] Group 2: Challenges in Digital Transformation - Despite significant investments in R&D in China, totaling over 14 billion RMB, Mercedes-Benz's progress in smart technology and electric vehicle development appears stagnant compared to its German counterparts [1][5] - The company has ambitious plans to launch 36 new models between 2025 and 2027, but delays in the development of its proprietary MB.OS operating system have hindered these efforts [7][9] - Competitors like Audi and BMW are actively engaging with local technology firms to enhance their product offerings, while Mercedes-Benz's collaborations have not yielded substantial results [8][9] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Position - Mercedes-Benz's shift from an "electric-first" strategy to a more balanced approach, including the development of fuel vehicles, reflects challenges in maintaining profitability amid declining sales [9][11] - The company's financial outlook for 2024 indicates a decline in key metrics, with revenue and profit margins expected to drop significantly, particularly in the Chinese market [11][12] - The struggles faced by Mercedes-Benz in the electric vehicle segment are evident, with sales of pure electric models in China falling dramatically, highlighting the need for a more effective strategy [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Volvo has adopted a controversial marketing strategy of launching new models at significantly reduced prices, leading to dissatisfaction among existing customers and reflecting underlying sales pressures in the market [3][4][7]. Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Volvo's global sales decreased by 6% year-on-year, with a 12% decline in the Chinese market [10][11]. - The company sold 172,200 vehicles globally, with Europe and China experiencing declines of 8% and 12%, respectively [10]. - In May 2025, global sales further dropped by 12%, with electric vehicle sales down by 20% [11]. Pricing Strategy - The newly launched 2026 Volvo XC60 saw a price drop of over 140,000 yuan, with limited-time offers significantly reducing the official price range [5][8]. - Similar pricing strategies were observed for other models, including the S90 and XC90, with price reductions of up to 160,000 yuan [8]. Customer Sentiment - Existing Volvo owners expressed frustration over the pricing strategy, feeling undervalued compared to new buyers who benefit from better offers and additional perks [7][9]. - The company's response to customer concerns about loyalty and fairness has not alleviated dissatisfaction among long-time customers [7]. Financial Pressure - Volvo's Q1 2025 revenue was 82.9 billion Swedish Krona, down 11.7% from the previous year, with operating profit dropping by 59.5% [14]. - The company announced a cost-cutting plan aiming to save 18 billion Swedish Krona by 2026, which includes a global workforce reduction of approximately 3,000 employees [14][16]. Strategic Challenges - Volvo's slow product updates and lagging electric vehicle transition have been cited as factors contributing to declining sales [11][12]. - The company aims to achieve a 50% share of pure electric vehicle sales by 2025 but has not yet met its electrification goals [12].

Core Insights - The electric vehicle (EV) market in China has entered a new phase of comprehensive market development, with significant advancements in power system innovation supporting the low-carbon and electrification transition of the automotive industry [1][2]. Industry Overview - In 2024, China's automotive production and sales are expected to exceed 31 million units, with exports reaching 5.86 million units, maintaining the global lead [1]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales have reached 12.87 million units, with a penetration rate surpassing 40%, and the overall NEV market penetration has now reached 44% [1][2]. - In the first five months of the year, the automotive industry in China has shown strong growth, with production and sales reaching 12.83 million and 12.73 million units, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 10.9% [1]. Technological Advancements - Significant breakthroughs in power system technology have been achieved, with hybrid dedicated transmission efficiency improving and hybrid engines reaching thermal efficiencies of 46%, a 13 percentage point increase since 2020 [3]. - Diesel engines have also improved, achieving thermal efficiencies over 48%, marking a 4.3 percentage point increase since 2020 [3]. - Electric drive technology has seen peak power density of drive motors exceeding 7000 watts per kilogram, and high-performance motor controllers based on silicon carbide devices achieving power densities of 45 kW per liter, nearly a 50% improvement since 2020 [3]. Characteristics of Power System Innovation - The automotive power system is evolving towards higher efficiency, integration, and intelligence, characterized by three main features: 1. Deeper system integration and multi-domain fusion, enhancing the compactness and efficiency of power systems [4]. 2. Innovations in materials and processes, with the introduction of silicon carbide, carbon fiber, and advanced manufacturing techniques like 3D printing, improving vehicle performance and production efficiency [5]. 3. Empowerment of power systems through artificial intelligence, enabling intelligent control and enhanced performance under extreme conditions [5].

Group 1: Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ) - Hubei Yihua is a diversified large chemical enterprise with upstream resource advantages and production base layout [5][6] - The company operates in multiple sectors including coal chemical, chlor-alkali chemical, phosphate and fluorine chemical, and fine chemicals. In 2024, revenue from chemical fertilizers, PVC, chlor-alkali products, and other fine chemical products is projected to be 7.65 billion, 4.13 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.81 billion CNY respectively, accounting for 45.1%, 24.4%, 9.0%, and 10.7% of total revenue [7] - The company ranks third in national fertilizer capacity, fifth in PVC capacity, and second globally in pentanediol capacity [7] - The acquisition of Xinfa Investment will increase the company's coal resource ownership and production capacity, adding 600,000 tons/year of urea, 300,000 tons/year of PVC, and 3 million tons/year of coal [7] - The company expects net profits of 940 million, 1.18 billion, and 1.24 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.3, 11.3, and 10.8 times [7] Group 2: Shenghong Technology (300476.SZ) - Shenghong Technology is a leading high-end PCB manufacturer with advanced multilayer and HDI board technologies, having established a "soft and hard" product layout through acquisitions [8] - The company has long-term partnerships with major brands such as Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, and Microsoft, which enhances its competitive edge in the PCB market [8] - The PCB industry is expected to grow rapidly due to the explosion in computing power demand and the electrification and intelligence of automobiles, with a projected CAGR of 5.4% from 2024 to 2028, reaching over 90 billion USD by 2028 [8] - The company anticipates net profits of 4.65 billion, 6.58 billion, and 8.15 billion CNY for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 5.39, 7.63, and 9.45 CNY, and PE ratios of 18.6, 13.1, and 10.6 times [8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [6]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the high-end PCB market, benefiting from the surge in AI computing demand and the rapid growth of the automotive electronics sector [3][4]. - The company has established a "soft and hard integration" product layout through acquisitions, enhancing its competitive edge and market share [5][16]. - The global PCB industry is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4% from 2024 to 2028, driven by high-value product demand [4][68]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a projected net profit of 46.50 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 302.8% [5][7]. - The company reported a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 43.12 billion yuan, up 80.31% year-on-year [28]. Industry Growth Drivers - The demand for AI servers is expected to drive a significant increase in PCB usage, with AI server shipments projected to grow substantially [37][38]. - The automotive industry's shift towards electrification, intelligence, and lightweight design is anticipated to enhance the value of automotive PCBs, with the market expected to grow from 9.195 billion USD in 2024 to 11.205 billion USD by 2029 [56][57]. Product and Market Strategy - The company has diversified its product offerings through strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Pole Star Limited, which enhances its capabilities in flexible circuit boards [80]. - The company maintains long-term partnerships with major clients such as NVIDIA, Tesla, and AMD, which strengthens its market position and revenue potential [5][16]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant growth in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with net profit expected to reach 81.49 billion yuan by 2027 [5][7]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve, reflecting a shift towards higher-value products in its portfolio [31].