Group 1: AI Industry Overview - The AI industry is experiencing a paradigm shift from technological miracles to practical value, with capital markets transitioning from speculative hype to value reassessment [1] - 2025 is recognized as a "structural formation year" for the market, driven by policy support, explosive AI demand, industry cycle recovery, and accelerated domestic substitution [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Market Performance - Among 172 semiconductor listed companies in A-shares, 144 saw stock price increases in 2025, with 29 companies doubling their stock prices and 4 companies increasing by over 4 times [2][3] - The top three performers in the semiconductor sector were沐曦股份-U (481.81%), 东芯股份 (441.81%), and 摩尔线程-U (433.09%) [2][3] Group 3: AI Computing and Storage Chips - AI computing and storage chips emerged as standout performers in the capital market in 2025, with significant demand growth [4] - The release of DeepSeek-R1 in January 2025 marked a surge in AI model computing demand, leading to substantial orders for domestic GPU manufacturers like 沐曦股份 and 摩尔线程 [5] - Storage chip prices began to rise due to production cuts by major manufacturers, with DRAM and NAND prices increasing significantly [6] Group 4: Domestic GPU Companies - 摩尔线程 and 沐曦股份 are recognized as leading domestic GPU manufacturers, focusing on high-performance general-purpose GPU development [8] - Both companies successfully listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2025, attracting significant institutional investment and achieving remarkable stock price increases post-IPO [9] Group 5: Hard Technology Market Trends - The A-share market in 2025 revolved around sectors like AI, computing, robotics, and commercial aerospace, with hard technology becoming a core investment focus [10] - The demand for AI computing is supported by breakthroughs in domestic AI chip technology and significant performance improvements from companies like 寒武纪 [10] - The energy sector is also becoming increasingly relevant due to the high electricity demand driven by AI, creating a synergistic market with technology and energy sectors [11][12]

风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 12月31日早盘，卫星产业与有色矿业两大主线持续走强。卫星产业ETF（159218）近一月涨幅超35%， 年内规模增长超7倍，突破15亿元，近一周日均成交额超4亿，受政策密集催化与产业加速发展推动。有 色矿业ETF招商（159690）同步上涨超2%，近期突破震荡区间，聚焦上游资源企业，在美元周期与绿 色转型背景下迎来估值重估机遇。两大主线共同构筑年末"天地共振"的结构性行情。"天"看政策与技术 成长，"地"看资源与周期弹性，二者共同构成当前"硬科技+战略资源"的双主线格局。 ...

Group 1 - A-shares in 2025 are expected to achieve record-breaking performance, with significant growth in various sectors, particularly in technology and materials [2] - The "Two New" policy for 2026 aims to optimize support for equipment updates and consumer goods, enhancing subsidy standards and implementation mechanisms [2] - The automotive trade-in subsidy for 2026 has been detailed, offering up to 15,000 yuan for electric vehicles and 13,000 yuan for fuel vehicles [3] Group 2 - A new tax policy reduces the value-added tax rate on second-hand housing transactions to 3%, effective January 1, 2026, which is expected to lower transaction costs and stimulate the housing market [4] - Changxin Technology has filed for an IPO on the STAR Market, aiming to raise approximately 29.5 billion yuan to enhance its competitiveness in the DRAM sector [5] - The copper market has seen prices rise over 40%, driven by strong demand and supply dynamics, making it a key commodity in 2025 [6] Group 3 - A Chinese semiconductor firm is forced to sell 80.2% of its stake in FTDI due to national security concerns raised by the UK government, resulting in significant expected losses [7] - Trump plans to announce a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in January, expressing dissatisfaction with current monetary policy [8] - Zijin Mining is projected to report a net profit exceeding 51 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 60% increase year-on-year, driven by rising gold prices [9][31] Group 4 - Huawei's rotating chairman Meng Wanzhou highlighted the company's focus on seven key business areas for 2026, showcasing significant achievements in 5G and AI technologies [12] - The solid-state battery national standard has been established, raising industry entry barriers and potentially impacting related stocks [13] - The market has seen a structural divergence in 2025, with hard technology and non-traditional sectors outperforming traditional consumer and financial stocks [14]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic opportunities and challenges for China's economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality growth and a focus on various key sectors [2][3]. Economic Opportunities - The plan identifies numerous new opportunities, including the development of a modern industrial system and the strengthening of the real economy, with specific mentions of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and advanced technologies [3]. - The goal is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, with economic growth maintained within a reasonable range and an increase in domestic consumption driving economic growth [2][3]. Economic Challenges - Challenges include unbalanced development, insufficient effective demand, and pressures on employment and income growth, which need to be addressed to convert challenges into opportunities [4]. - The plan sets a target for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, requiring an average annual GDP growth of approximately 4.17% from 2025 to 2035 [4]. Consumer Income and Spending - The plan aims to increase residents' income through various channels, including wage, operational, property, and transfer income, with a focus on enhancing the share of labor remuneration in national income distribution [7][11]. - There is an emphasis on improving the structure of income distribution to promote a more reasonable allocation of income among residents [7]. Investment and Consumption - The plan suggests that increasing government spending on social welfare and implementing direct consumer support policies will enhance residents' consumption capacity [8][11]. - The importance of stabilizing the stock market to increase residents' property income and subsequently boost consumption is highlighted [14]. Capital Market Development - The stability of the capital market is crucial for enhancing investor confidence and ensuring sustainable income growth, which in turn affects consumer behavior [14][15]. - Encouraging long-term funding sources for technological innovation is essential for fostering a robust capital market and supporting economic growth [15][18]. Technological Innovation and Global Competitiveness - The plan emphasizes the need for China to cultivate high-quality listed companies with international competitiveness, particularly in the technology sector, to participate in global competition [18]. - The focus is on creating a favorable investment environment for companies to grow and attract long-term capital into the market [18].

Core Insights - The ETF market has surpassed 6 trillion yuan, with a projected growth of over 60% by 2025, indicating a shift from supplementary allocation to becoming a foundational asset allocation tool [2]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The total scale of the domestic ETF market has reached 6.00193 trillion yuan, with 1,385 products available, reflecting strong market vitality. This year, the net increase in scale is approximately 2.27 trillion yuan, representing a growth rate of over 60% compared to the beginning of the year, significantly outpacing previous years [6]. - Different types of ETFs have shown distinct performance. Bond ETFs have become the fastest-growing category this year, with a scale of 813.257 billion yuan, an increase of 633.271 billion yuan, exceeding 300% growth, driven by demand for stable assets in a low-interest-rate environment. Cross-border ETFs have also performed well, surpassing 900 billion yuan, with a growth of 510.67 billion yuan, over 118% [7]. - Stock ETFs remain the dominant category, with a scale of 3.820481 trillion yuan, accounting for 63.7% of the total ETF market. However, their growth rate of approximately 32% this year is notably lower than that of bond and cross-border ETFs [8]. Group 2: ETF Trading and Liquidity - Recent trading activity in the ETF market has shown a gradual decline, with an average trading volume of 355.894 billion yuan over the past week, down approximately 13% from the previous month and 24% from the last three months, indicating a cooling in overall market trading enthusiasm [12]. - Bond ETFs continue to dominate trading, with an average trading volume of 162.506 billion yuan, accounting for 45.6% of total ETF trading. However, this is a significant drop of 20% from the previous month, reflecting cautious capital movement amid bond market volatility [13]. - Cross-border ETFs have seen the largest adjustment, with an average trading volume of 33.610 billion yuan, down 36.8% from the previous month and 55.4% from the last three months, likely influenced by external market fluctuations and rising risk aversion [14]. Group 3: ETF Subscription and Redemption Net Inflows - The top three net inflows in the stock-wide index ETFs over the past week are all A500-related products, with a total net inflow of 136.20 billion yuan, accounting for 46.7% of the total net inflow of the top 10 wide-based ETFs [17]. - There is a clear preference for small-cap wide-based ETFs, with net inflows concentrated in the range of 20.12 to 30.49 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [18]. - The overall trend shows a significant divergence, with the top 10 net inflows totaling 291.58 billion yuan, while the top 10 net outflows amount to -35.40 billion yuan, highlighting a pattern of capital flowing into small-cap wide-based ETFs while large-cap and some thematic wide-based ETFs experience outflows [19]. Group 4: ETF Issuance Information Overview - From January 5 to 6, a total of 6 ETFs were listed, with a combined trading share of 2.043 billion units. Notably, artificial intelligence-themed ETFs accounted for a significant portion, reflecting high investor interest in technology sectors [39]. - Currently, there are 16 ETFs in the fundraising phase with a total fundraising cap exceeding 70 billion yuan, with a focus on hard technology and new energy sectors, indicating a strong alignment with policy directions [40]. - The number of approved but unissued ETFs has reached 26, with over 70% focused on technology and advanced manufacturing themes, suggesting a trend towards more concentrated and specialized investment products [41].

劳志明表示，今年以来，民企交易在首次披露端占比有所提升。民企交易以市场化交易为主，商业谈判 难度相比国企更大。考虑到审核周期等因素，2025年民企过会占比尚未有明显增加，预计2026年民企交 易在过会口径占比应该会有所上升。 "硬科技"获重点支持 数据显示，截至12月30日，2025年沪深北交易所共首次披露134单发行股份购买资产交易。2023年和 2024年同期，首次披露的数量分别为53单和78单。2025年并购重组市场活跃度显著提升，并且热度仍在 保持。在这134单中，涉及沪主板33单，深主板36单，科创板27单，创业板37单，北交所1单，科创板和 创业板重组较前些年活跃度大幅提升。 华泰联合证券董事总经理劳志明对中国证券报记者表示，2025年，并购市场活跃度整体提升。今年以 来，交易所对并购重组事项的受理和审核进度加快。民企交易占比在首次披露端明显提高，过会端占比 相对稳定。相较前几年，监管部门明显提高了对优质未盈利资产的包容度，半导体等"硬科技"成为监管 部门支持的重点。 ● 本报记者 董添 交易所受理和审核速度加快 临近年末，A股并购重组市场持续活跃。近期，多家A股上市公司发布发行股份购买资产交易的 ...

Wind数据显示，截至12月30日，2025年沪深北交易所共首次披露134单发行股份购买资产交易。2023年 和2024年同期，首次披露的数量分别为53单和78单。2025年并购重组市场活跃度显著提升，并且热度仍 在保持。在这134单中，涉及沪主板33单，深主板36单，科创板27单，创业板37单，北交所1单，科创板 和创业板重组较前些年活跃度大幅提升。 华泰联合证券董事总经理劳志明对中国证券报记者表示，2025年，并购市场活跃度整体提升。今年以 来，交易所对并购重组事项的受理和审核进度加快。民企交易占比在首次披露端明显提高，过会端占比 相对稳定。相较前几年，监管部门明显提高了对优质未盈利资产的包容度，半导体等"硬科技"成为监管 部门支持的重点。 ● 本报记者 董添 交易所受理和审核速度加快 临近年末，A股并购重组市场持续活跃。近期，多家A股上市公司发布发行股份购买资产交易的公告， 引发市场关注。 五矿发展12月29日晚间公告，公司收到实际控制人中国五矿《关于筹划重大资产重组事项的通知》，拟 通过资产置换、发行股份及支付现金方式购买控股股东五矿股份持有的五矿矿业、鲁中矿业的股权，并 募集配套资金。同时，公司拟置 ...

"2025年，我在A股市场的收益率超40%，全靠运气。很多年没有这么高的收益率了。"河南的投资者小 马告诉中国证券报记者。 在小马"全靠运气"取得高收益率的背后，是2025年中国资产崛起，A股市场的持续走强，上证指数一度 站上4000点，A股总市值、成交额、融资余额等连创纪录。 Wind数据显示，截至12月30日，2025年以来，A股市场成交额达417.82万亿元，日均成交额达1.73万亿 元，均创年度历史新高。A股总市值为119.04万亿元，在2025年连创新高，并于11月13日创下119.95万 亿元的纪录。上证指数、深证成指、创业板指分别累计上涨18.30%、30.62%、51.42%，从2025年低点 算起的最大涨幅则分别高达32.67%、51.40%、89.67%。（下转A05版） （上接A01版）长江证券研究所总经理王鹤涛说："从整体看，2025年A股市场走势整体呈现震荡上行行 情，其中科技和有色板块领涨。从全年节奏看，市场呈现出较为明显的季节效应。" ● 本报记者 吴玉华 "在高点买入很多年的ETF终于在2025年解套赚钱了""这一年收益率超过60%，结构性行情突出，跟随主 线做波段才更好赚钱" ...

Core Insights - Strong One Co., Ltd. (688809.SH) officially listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, becoming the 600th company, marking a significant milestone in the board's growth since its inception in 2019 [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has established itself as a key platform for empowering hard-tech enterprises, reflecting China's commitment to innovation-driven development and the cultivation of new productive forces [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board achieved a total operating revenue of 1,105.01 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2] - Net profit reached 49.27 billion yuan, with an 8.9% year-on-year increase, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 31.97 billion yuan, up 5.5% [2] - R&D investment totaled 119.75 billion yuan, 2.4 times the net profit, with a median R&D intensity of 12.4%, indicating a strong focus on technological innovation [2] Industry Development - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board has formed a distinctive hard-tech industry cluster, particularly in the semiconductor sector, which includes over 100 companies, accounting for about 60% of the total in the A-share market [3] - Revenue in the integrated circuit industry grew by 25% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 67% [3] - The biopharmaceutical sector saw the approval of nine Class 1 new drugs and potential total transaction amounts exceeding 13 billion USD from 16 outbound BD deals, enhancing industry competitiveness [3] Future Outlook - The emergence of the 600th company is seen as both a summary of past achievements and a starting point for future development [3] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board aims to deepen reforms and enhance support for hard-tech enterprises, fostering the growth of high-quality tech companies through capital [3] - The board is expected to attract and cultivate more world-class technology enterprises, leading to the emergence of more innovative company stars in the future [3]

2025年应该用什么标注？ 这是在历史留下浓墨重彩的一年。无论是宏大叙事，还是情绪幽微，或如雷霆，或如雨露，氤氲着变 化，积蓄着能量。从"十五五"规划建议、九三阅兵、关税博弈、顺差万亿，到DeepSeek横空出世、 LABUBU火遍全球、人形机器人"爆单"、芯片国产替代浪潮，再到黄金狂飙、外卖大战、哪吒"封神"、 短剧崛起……它们形成历史的合力，裹着无数的人们，奔流激荡，冲向历史的峡口。 无论月薪多少，国家大事与每个个体同气连枝，结成命运共同体。于国是数字经济，于人是数字生活， 赛博朋克，殊途同归。 新世纪过去四分之一，恰好在2025年，AI照耀蓝星。穹顶之下，我们要思考如何与AI相处。科技至 此，退无可退，卢比孔河边的骰子已经掷下。 这是从来没有过的"惊险一跳"，兴奋迷惘、跃跃欲试与焦虑恐惧，每一种情绪都是真实的，也是缠绕 的。国家衔枚疾走，只争朝夕，两个大国在AI、算法和算力上趸积起天文数字的基础设施投资，点亮 不同的科技树。个体在享受AI便利的同时，会担心自己被AI替代，担心未来被AI支配。"百万漕工衣食 所系"，从来都不是轻描淡写的适者生存。 世界处于巨变前夜，断层线肉眼可见，君子不立危墙之下。承载着 ...