Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fundamental changes in the perception of the United States globally and in relation to China, particularly under the leadership of Donald Trump, highlighting a shift from a positive to a negative image [3][4][10]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Policies - Trump's administration has caused significant disruptions to international order and alliances, leading to confusion among allies [3][4]. - The stock market has reacted negatively, with the average decline of the "seven giants" on Wall Street being 15% this year, marking the lowest valuation since 2017 [4][6]. - Economic recession risks are rising, with Moody's chief economist indicating that Trump's tariff plans could push the economy into recession if implemented [6][21]. Group 2: Domestic and Foreign Policy Changes - Trump has focused on reducing federal bureaucracy and regulations, claiming they hinder American development [9]. - His foreign policy is characterized by a desire to prevent the U.S. from being taken advantage of by other countries, leading to increased tariffs and withdrawal from international agreements [10][12]. - The administration's approach to China has been pragmatic, emphasizing economic competition while still expressing a desire for investment from Chinese firms [14][21]. Group 3: Cultural and Psychological Concerns - There are deeper concerns regarding the cultural and psychological impact of Trump's policies, with fears that prolonged instability could lead to a collapse of markets and investor confidence [7][19]. - The article reflects on the potential for a shift in the global order, questioning whether the world will revert to a "jungle law" or maintain basic consensus in the face of common challenges [19][27]. Group 4: China's Position and Response - The article expresses confidence in China's ability to innovate and evolve despite external pressures from the U.S., suggesting that challenges may ultimately lead to growth [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic economic development and innovation rather than rushing to fill perceived gaps left by the U.S. [25][26]. - The narrative suggests that China's approach should be rooted in its cultural values, promoting harmony and coexistence rather than aggressive expansion [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that Trump's foreign policy does not fundamentally overturn the traditional U.S. diplomatic approach but rather reflects a more overt expression of the long-standing U.S. hegemonic nature in international relations [1][4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Foreign Policy Under Trump - Trump's administration has been characterized by a series of "America First" policies, which include imposing tariffs, withdrawing from international agreements, and exerting pressure on allies, suggesting a return to a more isolationist stance reminiscent of 19th-century imperialism [2][3][8]. - The administration's actions, such as the imposition of 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, reflect a protectionist ideology that has historical precedents in U.S. foreign policy [2][6]. - Trump's rhetoric about making Canada the "51st state" and threats to annex Greenland illustrate a revival of imperialistic tendencies in U.S. diplomacy [3][5]. Group 2: Historical Context and Continuity - The article highlights that many of Trump's foreign policy actions have historical parallels, such as previous administrations' withdrawal from international organizations and the use of economic leverage to achieve political goals [4][6]. - Notable examples include Reagan's and Obama's administrations, which also exhibited similar tendencies to withdraw support from international bodies when U.S. interests were perceived to be compromised [4][6]. - The historical context of U.S. interventions, such as the CIA's involvement in the overthrow of Congolese Prime Minister Lumumba, underscores a long-standing pattern of prioritizing resource control and geopolitical interests over international norms [6][8]. Group 3: The Nature of "America First" - The concept of "America First" is portrayed as a consistent theme in U.S. foreign policy, driven by a desire to maintain hegemony and respond to perceived threats to national interests [7][8]. - Analysts suggest that the current administration's more blatant embrace of "America First" reflects a response to declining U.S. power and rising anxieties among the elite and the general populace [8]. - The article posits that the roots of Trump's policies can be traced back to historical U.S. expansionism and a self-serving interpretation of democracy that justifies unilateral actions on the global stage [8].

今日早参 2025 年 3 月 12 日 何康 策略首席研究员兼金融工程联席首席 研究员 座机：021-28972202 邮箱：hekang@htsc.com 王伟光 策略研究员 邮箱：wangweiguang@htsc.com 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 今日热点 策略：资金透视：配置型外资再度净流入 上周两会及产业事件催化 A 股上行，投资者关注其后续演绎方向，我们从资 金层面提供几点观察：1）除杠杆资金外，配置型外资、公募资金是近期资 金面的增量主力，其偏好的基本面因子定价权或有提升；2）配置型外资再 度回暖，A 股&港股作为全球市场的估值洼地，仍具备一定吸引力，关注全 球资金的再配置需求；3）制造及涨价品种近期资金关注度有所提升。 风险提示：1）估算持仓模型失效；2）数据统计口径有误。 研报发布日期：2025-03-11 研究员 何康 SAC:S0570520080004 SFC:BRB318 王伟光 SAC:S0570523040001 固定收益：美股"先破"，谁将"后立"？ 3 月 10 日美国三大股指全线大幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The return of Trump with stronger political capital enhances governance efficiency, as he won all seven swing states in the 2024 election with margins exceeding polling expectations [6] - Key voter concerns in swing states include inflation and immigration, with 28% of voters prioritizing inflation as the main issue [10] - Trump's cabinet is more hawkish and loyal, potentially leading to aggressive policies in economic, immigration, and foreign affairs [15] - The cabinet consists of various factions, including conservatives, MAGA loyalists, reformists, and Wall Street representatives, each with differing policy priorities [17] Summary by Sections 1. Trump's Strong Return - Trump's political capital is at its highest since Roosevelt, allowing for rapid cabinet appointments and policy advancements [6][8] - Swing states have shifted towards Trump, indicating a strong voter base [7] 2. Overview of Trump's 2.0 Policy Layout - Key issues for voters include inflation, immigration, and employment, with a focus on trade and immigration policies as tools for domestic policy negotiations [10][31] - The administration has signed numerous executive orders, particularly in trade and immigration, to address pressing domestic issues [31] 3. Economic Impact of Trump's 2.0 - The U.S. faces a challenging monetary policy environment, balancing between employment and inflation, with CPI rising from 2.4% to 3.0% [22][23] - The federal deficit is projected to remain high, with government debt levels exceeding historical averages, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [24] - Strong dollar policies may conflict with manufacturing repatriation efforts, as high inflation and a strong dollar reduce competitiveness for U.S. exports [25] - Tariff policies are expected to generate significant revenue, with estimates suggesting potential tariff income of around $111 billion from proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China [56]

Policy Overview - Trump emphasized a pro-business stance, advocating for deregulation and tax cuts for residents and businesses[1] - He highlighted the importance of tariffs for fiscal revenue and manufacturing return, while suggesting potential flexibility on tariffs with Mexico[1] - The administration aims to reduce inflation through increased energy supply and seeks peace in the Middle East and Ukraine[1] Immigration and Government Reform - Immigration arrests at the southern border dropped significantly from 300,000/month under Biden to 60,000/month[3] - Trump called for immediate congressional funding to support immigration enforcement and highlighted the achievements of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)[3] - He claimed to have uncovered fraud amounting to hundreds of billions in government spending, particularly in social security[3] Economic Policies - Trump proposed a permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and tax exemptions for tips, overtime, and social security benefits[3] - He confirmed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, targeting countries with trade surpluses with the U.S.[4] - The administration plans to balance the federal budget through increased tariffs, selling immigration "gold cards," and reducing government waste[3] Market Implications - The inherent contradictions and randomness in Trump's policies, combined with DOGE's impact on government spending, may increase economic uncertainty and market volatility[5] - Despite signs of economic weakening, the resilient job market suggests the U.S. is still on track for a soft landing[5]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容来自半导体芯闻综合 ，谢谢。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普3月4日表示，将废除拜登政府制定的半导体补贴计划《CHIPS法案》，此 举可能影响韩国芯片制造商三星电子和SK海力士。 三星和 SK 海力士在美国投资巨大，原本将根据该计划获得数十亿美元的补贴。特朗普再次承诺废 除该计划，引发了人们对这些公司可能受到的财务影响的担忧。 特朗普在国会联合演讲中表示："得益于我们的'美国优先'政策，我们在过去几周内就看到美国获 得了 1.7 万亿美元的新投资。软银是世界上最出色的公司之一，宣布投资 2000 亿美元。OpenAI 和甲骨文——拉里·埃里森——宣布投资 5000 亿美元。苹果宣布投资 5000 亿美元。蒂姆·库克打 电话给我说，'我花这笔钱的速度还不够快。'就在昨天，台湾半导体公司宣布投资 1650 亿美元， 在美国制造地球上最强大的芯片" https://www.chosun.com/english/industry-en/2025/03/05/DVF7DO7XAZFJJHIXEWYTSUC4SA/ 点这里加关注，锁定更多原创内容 *免责声明：文章内容系作者个人 ...

撰 文 / 孟 为 设 计 / 琚 佳 在国际政治经济的大棋盘上，美国总统特朗普（Donald Trump）的关税政策走向一直是各方瞩目的 焦点。 尽管人们已经对此做好了准备，但这仍如同投入平静湖面的巨石，激起千层浪，将对众多行业产生 深远影响，汽车行业更是首当其冲。 特朗普此番加征关税的理由看似多面，实则主要围绕经济与政治双重目的。 1月31日晚，白宫表示，将展开前所未有的全面关税计划。这意味着全球贸易展可能扩大和升级。 当天，白宫发言人表示，从2月1日起，美国将对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税，对中国征收10% 的关税。 同时，特朗普政府还计划对欧洲商品、半导体、药品、钢铁、铝、铜和石油和天然气征收额外进口 税。 从经济层面来看，他声称要解决美国长期存在的贸易逆差问题。美国与加拿大、墨西哥在贸易往来 中，存在一定程度的贸易失衡，特朗普认为通过加征关税可以减少进口，促进美国本土产品的消 费，从而改善贸易收支状况。 例如，在汽车及零部件贸易领域，墨西哥和加拿大的相关产品大量涌入美国市场，这被特朗普视为 对美国本土汽车产业的冲击。 从政治角度而言，特朗普试图通过关税政策来实现其"美国优先"的政治理念，增强美国制 ...

导读 东北偏北FM直播内容的正式文字梳理版本，以上是视频直播回放有兴趣的可以点击观 ---付鹏 东北证券首席经济学家 民，鼓励使用化石燃料，并重视科技创新， 自2016年特朗普首次参选以来，全球经历了重大变革。美国大选的结果不仅影响了顶层意识形态，还深刻 改变了政治格局，导致内政、经济和外交政策的急剧转变。这一系列变化对全球经济产生了深远的影响，自那 时起，美国的每一次大选都引起了全球的极大关注。 如果在当前就业市场状况下，能够有效减缓移民流入，那么特朗普提出的"减税-加关税-刺激资本回流-限制 移民-进一步促进就业和薪资增长"的经济循环，无疑将加速经济增长，使劳动力市场趋紧，并可能导致进口成本 上升（尽管这可能会被汇率变动所抵消）。 西方社会的极端左翼所引发的社会矛盾，以及精英阶层与普通民众之间的对立，在过去几年的三次大选中导 致了政治向右翼的显著转变。即便在拜登政府领导下，民主党采取了适度的中左政策，但在处理国际地缘政治 问题上的立场以及对内部问题的温和处理方式，并未完全获得公众的支持。这也使得特朗普的"让美国再次伟 大"（MAGA）运动在某些群体中更受欢迎。因此，特朗普在此次竞选中以压倒性的优势赢得了胜 ...