Core Insights - The U.S. labor data supports calls for monetary easing, indicating signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.295%, while the 2-year yield is at 3.801% [1] - July saw only 73,000 new jobs added, with the unemployment rate slightly rising from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - Previous employment data has been significantly revised downwards, with May's job additions revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] - Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns about the labor market's weakness prior to the employment report [1]

全球经济的同步叙事已然落幕。随着各国从疫情后的通胀冲击中走出，世界主要中央银行正 踏上截然不同的政策路径，昔日一致对外的紧缩阵线已不复存在。这种由各国国内经济状况 主导的"大分化"，正深刻重塑全球资本流动、汇率及资产配置的未来图景。 高位观望的"暂停者"：美欧央行的如履薄冰 在当前全球货币政策的棋局中，美联储（Fed）和欧洲中央银行（ECB）占据了相似的战略位置：它们 都已将利率提升至被认为是"限制性"的水平，并暂时按下了"暂停"键。 它们的目标一致：在不引发严重经济衰退的前提下，确保通胀被彻底驯服。然而，相似的立场之下，两 者面临的挑战和内部的博弈却各有侧重，使得它们的"暂停"显得如履薄冰。 美联储：鹰派立场下的内部分歧 美联储在7月的会议上将联邦基金利率维持在了 4.25%至4.50% 的区间，这标志着其紧缩周期的平台 期。主席鲍威尔的公开表态延续了"更高更久"（Higher for Longer）的鹰派基调，强调抗击通胀的斗争 尚未结束。 他指出，尽管整体通胀已从峰值回落，但服务业通胀（特别是剔除住房的核心服务通胀）依然顽固，劳 动力市场的紧张状况也未完全缓解。这构成了美联储维持高利率的核心理由。 然而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent economic work conference has provided direction for the economy in the second half of the year, emphasizing continued monetary easing and fiscal support, with a focus on increasing liquidity and reducing financing costs. A significant change is the clear intention to "counter involution" [1] Group 1 - The economic strategy remains focused on monetary easing and fiscal support [1] - There is an emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity in the market [1] - Financing costs are expected to continue decreasing [1] Group 2 - The conference marks the first time a clear stance has been taken to address the issue of "involution" [1]

10:00 中国贸促会召开7月例行新闻发布会 15:00 商务部召开7月第4次例行新闻发布会 【财经日历】 09:30 中国7月官方制造业PMI 20:30 美国截至7月26日当周初请失业金人数 | | 盘前必读 | 外盘怎么样 // | | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | | | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 44461.28 | -171.71 | -0.38% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 21129.67 c | 31.38 | 0.15% | | 标普500 | 6362.90 | -7.96 | -0.12% | 机构认为，央行超预期货币宽松，公开市场持续投放流动性，或带动A股中期走强。 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，纳指涨0.15%，标普500指数跌0.12%。 热门科技股涨跌不一，英伟达涨超2%，博通涨超1%，苹果跌超1%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.82%，热门中概股多数下跌，蔚来、新东方跌超4%，理想汽车跌超3%，拼多多、小鹏汽车跌超2%，阿里巴巴、京东跌超1%。 美国第 ...

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is negotiating with the Trump administration to resolve tariff conflicts, with a deadline set for August 1 [1] - Major Canadian exports such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles face high tariff threats, but approximately 80% of exports to the U.S. meet the USMCA's duty-free standards [1] - Economists predict that even if a new agreement is reached, it may not completely eliminate Canada's tariff burdens [1] Group 2 - National Bank Financial's economist Ethan Currie suggests that the new agreement is unlikely to fully relieve Canada's tariff pressures, predicting that the Bank of Canada may cut interest rates up to two more times due to ongoing trade uncertainties [1] - Conversely, Royal Bank of Canada's economist Claire Fan believes that the Bank of Canada will not further lower interest rates, arguing that the effects of previous rate cuts have not fully transmitted to the economy [1] - Fan also indicates that the upcoming fall budget from the Liberal government may allocate hundreds of billions of Canadian dollars in new spending to mitigate the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing-driven economy [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

一、央行突击降准的牛市！央行开展1.4万亿元买断式逆回购操作，其中，3个月（91天）期操作量8000亿元，6个月（182天）期操作量6000亿元。只不过更 多的后续刺激，可能要在美联储三四季度正式开始降息，我们这边的进一步宽松刺激才会落地。 在目前低利率的宏观环境下，如果财政和货币刺激先后落地，我们后续很可能会迎来924的2.0版本。因为从结构性分化到盈利效应带动增量资金进入，其实 也就差了中间财政刺激和货币宽松这把火。 当然了，这里还是那句话，不管是回顾历史还是对比现在，里面很多都是个人的主观看法和记录。这些看法和记录本身并不一定对，未来也会随着实际情况 的变化，不断的进行修正。 二、A股市场整体行情还是比较乐观的，到目前为止都没有一根大阴线，如果有是不错的上车机会。 关于后市，A股周线已经五连阳，下周收月线，月线也是阳线，月线三连阳，这都是后市长期多头的形态。 质疑牛市的声音不多了，但涨的并不快，3674高点可能8月份就过去了。7月底还有重要的消息面，下周四之前应该会出公告，也是个潜在利好催化。 但是，跌到最近的关键点位后，依旧有望在增量资金入场和板块轮动时期继续拉升。加上，大盘的2024年至今的高点虽在 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Derivatives Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, with a net capital injection of over one trillion yuan in the past week, leading to a decline in capital interest rates and supporting the bond market [3] Bearish Factors - Economic data shows marginal improvement, with industrial added - value in June exceeding expectations. The fundamental recovery is negative for the bond market [3] - Fiscal policy and anti - involution regulation are strengthened, increasing policy - related bearish pressure [3] Trading Advisory View - Treasury bond futures will continue to show a volatile trend, with no obvious trend - based opportunities. It is recommended that both long and short positions wait and see [3] Group 3: Market Data Treasury Bond Yields - The report presents the trends of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, 30Y, and 7Y treasury bond yields from April 2024 to April 2025 [4] Capital Interest Rates - It shows the trends of the weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase of deposit - taking institutions for 1 - day and 7 - day terms, as well as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate from August 2023 to April 2025 [4] Treasury Bond Term Spreads - The trends of 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y treasury bond term spreads from April 2024 to April 2025 are presented [5] Treasury Bond Futures - **Open Interest**: The open interest trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from December 2015 to December 2023 are shown [7] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures from April 2024 to April 2025 are presented [8] Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis trends of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts are shown [9][10][11][14] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads (current - quarter minus next - quarter) of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are presented [16][17][18] - **Cross - product Spread**: The cross - product spreads of TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL are shown [19][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Current fundamentals and policies offer little guidance. The stable capital market lacks the impetus for further breakthroughs, and the rising market risk appetite suppresses the bond market. It's advisable to trade bonds based on stock market performance and beware of additional selling pressure from bond fund and wealth management redemptions [11]. - Long - term: Considering the pressure of tariffs and weak domestic demand, the expectation of monetary easing may rise again in October as external demand risks become more apparent in the third quarter, tariff negotiation results are clarified, and the Fed cuts interest rates. However, if the anti - involution measures effectively boost domestic demand and inflation, the bond market trend may reverse. Continued attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - side reform policies and the strength of demand recovery [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Conditions**: The stock - bond seesaw continues. The strong performance of commodity futures and the announcement on inflation - related policies may boost inflation expectations, leading to a wider decline in Treasury bond futures in the late session [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities have risen, mostly by 3 - 4bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond 250011 reached 1.735%, up 2.9bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The capital market is stable with rising prices. There were 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due today, and the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates have risen significantly, while medium - and long - term funds remain stable and loose [10]. 3.2 Industry News - An economic and trade meeting between China and the US will be held in Sweden from July 27th to 30th [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will take measures to improve the coordinated development mechanism of state - owned and private enterprises [13]. - Hainan Free Trade Port will start the full - island customs closure operation on December 18th, with an increase in the proportion of "zero - tariff" goods [13]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will take measures to address issues in the pig industry [13]. - From January to June, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly renovated, and 25,000 are planned for the whole year [14]. - Bank deposit interest rates continue to decline [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Includes data on trading, spreads, and trends of Treasury bond futures [6][15][16]. - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR and inter - bank repurchase rates [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap curves [35].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threats to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies and fiscal strategies [2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, expressing dissatisfaction with the Fed's monetary policy not aligning with his "big fiscal" plans [2]. - The "Big Beautiful Plan" passed on July 4 is expected to increase federal debt by $4.1 trillion over the next decade, potentially rising to $5.5 trillion if temporary tax cuts are made permanent [2]. - The projected deficit rate during Trump's second term could remain around 6.5%-7%, with the Treasury expected to issue approximately $1.2 trillion in net debt in Q3, leading to potential liquidity tightening [2]. Group 2: Mechanism of Dismissing the Fed Chair - The rules regarding the dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman by the President are ambiguous, with the Chairman serving a 4-year term but as a board member for 14 years [4]. - Historical instances show that while four Fed Chairs have resigned under political pressure, there has been no direct dismissal by a President [4]. - The Supreme Court has affirmed the Fed's unique structure and independence, indicating that the President cannot dismiss the Chairman due to policy disagreements [4]. Group 3: Historical Challenges to Fed Independence - The Fed's independence has faced significant challenges historically, notably during the Great Depression and the Nixon administration, where political pressures led to a loss of monetary policy control [6]. - The article notes that during periods of fiscal dominance, such as the 60s and 70s, the Fed's independence was notably weakened, with higher inflation tolerated under political pressure [6]. Group 4: Implications of Potential Fed Chair Departure - If the Fed Chair were to leave early, it could negatively impact the dollar and positively affect gold prices, with historical precedents showing a weakening dollar and rising gold prices following similar events [8]. - The article suggests that if the current Fed Chair completes their term, the anticipated issuance of $1.2 trillion in debt could still lead to liquidity pressures, prompting the Fed to restart quantitative easing, benefiting both the stock market and gold [8].