Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Powell's unexpectedly dovish speech at the central bank annual meeting changed market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. The Fed may accelerate the interest - rate cut in September, and the US dollar index will trend downward [33][34] - The geopolitical situation is evolving towards marginal easing, but the Russia - Ukraine negotiation is difficult to reach an agreement in the short term [2][11][13] - The Fed's internal differences are large, and the Trump administration's intervention in the Fed is increasing. Next year, the dovish lineup of the Fed will increase, and monetary policy will enter a new easing stage [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most global stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The yield of US Treasury bonds dropped to 4.25%. The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 97.7, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Gold prices rose 1.1% to $3371 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 14.2, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $68.3 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets rose. The S&P 500 index rose 0.27%, most European stock markets closed up, most emerging - market stock markets rose, the Shanghai Composite Index soared 3.49%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, and the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.72% [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping to 4.25%. Most euro - zone government bond yields declined, and emerging - market bond yields showed mixed performance. The yield curve of US Treasury bonds became steeper, and the yield of Japanese government bonds continued to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rose to 1.787%, and the inversion of the China - US interest - rate spread decreased to 246bp [14][17][19][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 97.7, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB rose 0.23%, the euro rose 0.13%, the pound fell 0.2%, the yen rose 0.17%, the Swiss franc rose 0.66%, and the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, real, and Thai baht depreciated, while the peso, Korean won, and rand appreciated [24][25][27] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 1.1% to $3371 per ounce, and Brent crude oil rose 0.7% to $68.3 per barrel. The VIX index dropped to 14.2, and the spot commodity index closed down. Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and oil prices are difficult to rise continuously [28][29] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting was unexpectedly dovish. The Fed's policy focus may shift to the unemployment rate, and the US dollar index will trend downward [30][33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US new home sales in July, UK market closed for one day - Tuesday: US housing price index in June, durable goods orders in July, and Conference Board consumer confidence index in August - Wednesday: Germany's Gfk consumer confidence index in September - Thursday: US initial jobless claims for the week, revised Q2 GDP, and ECB interest - rate meeting minutes - Friday: US core PCE in July [35]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference signaled a more dovish stance, which was interpreted by the market as a signal for potential monetary easing, leading to a significant market rally [1][2] - Following Powell's remarks, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a rate cut in September surged from 70% to 80% [1] - Major stock indices reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq by 1.88%, and the Dow Jones reaching a new historical closing high, while small-cap stocks surged by 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists believe that Powell's comments were meant to reassure the market, but there are concerns that the market may be overreacting [2] - There are mixed sentiments in the market; while some investors are optimistic about potential gradual rate cuts, others worry that economic slowdown and worsening employment could reverse the current market rebound [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve has come under scrutiny again, particularly due to public pressure from President Trump for rate cuts and threats regarding the dismissal of Fed officials [2]

Core Viewpoint - Current conditions in the U.S. suggest a downward risk to employment growth, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Following Powell's speech, the market anticipates a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with a higher probability of a soft landing for the U.S. economy [1] - Major asset prices, excluding the U.S. dollar, have risen across the board [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative policy stance, with a baseline scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [1] - There is a higher likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in the fourth quarter compared to just one [1] - Considering the influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, the extent of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations [1]

华泰证券固收研究表示，美国当前形势暗示就业增长面临下行风险，风险平衡点的变化可能要求调整政 策。鲍威尔讲话后市场交易美联储宽松，美国基本面软着陆的概率上升，除美元外大类资产价格全面走 高。后续货币政策路径来看，美联储政策倾向预计偏宽松，9月降息25bp应该是基准情形，四季度降息2 次25bp的概率或高于1次。如果进一步考虑特朗普政府对美联储的影响，本轮宽松周期的幅度或超过市 场预期。 ...

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference unexpectedly conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally [1] - The immediate market reaction included a decline in the two-year U.S. Treasury yield by 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 70% to 80% [1] - Major stock indices saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq by 1.88%, and the Dow Jones reaching a record closing high, while small-cap stocks surged by 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve were reignited due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [1] - Market participants exhibited a mixed sentiment, with expectations for liquidity easing contrasted by worries about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term stock market growth [1] - Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole provided short-term relief to market tensions, but the true test will come from upcoming economic data in the following weeks [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally [1] - The immediate market reaction included a decline in two-year Treasury yields by 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 70% to 80% [1] - Major stock indices saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq by 1.88%, and the Dow Jones reaching a record closing high, while small-cap stocks surged by 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [1] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [1] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a conflicting sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term stock market growth [1]

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a price increase of 0.27%, reaching 120.06 yuan as of August 21, 2025, with active market trading reflected by a turnover rate of 34.46% and a transaction volume of 9.438 billion yuan [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached a record high of 27.373 billion yuan, with the number of shares also hitting a new high of 229 million [1] - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 11 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, totaling 5.923 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that in the context of a moderate economic recovery and manageable inflation pressures, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, limiting the risk of significant interest rate increases, while long-term bond yields may exhibit a range-bound fluctuation pattern [2] - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment performance in this category [2]

联昌国际 银行(CIMB)经济学家在报告中表示，印尼央行可能会在第四季度再降息25个基点，将政策利 率降至4.75%。如果新的关税措施或更疲弱的财政与增长表现拖累经济，2026年可能会进一步宽松。由 于二季度GDP强于预期，印尼央行将2025年增长预期上调至4.6%—5.4%区间中值以上，并表示下半年 增长将受政府支出和重点项目支持。CIMB指出，这一积极指引意味着最新的降息不太可能标志着持续 宽松周期的开始。展望未来，CIMB预计印尼央行将在信贷疲弱和贷款增长放缓的背景下，采取数据依 赖型策略，同时改善货币政策传导。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Indonesia's economy showed strong performance in Q2, with GDP growth exceeding expectations driven by investment, household spending, and export growth [1] - The central bank expects the full-year economic growth for 2025 to be above the midpoint of the target range of 4.6% to 5.4%, with improved growth momentum anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Despite global economic pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs affecting global trade, Indonesia's economy demonstrates resilience [1] Group 2 - Inflation remains low, with July's inflation rate indicating that core inflation is expected to stay within target ranges, reflecting significant domestic capacity and manageable import inflation risks [1] - The central bank maintains its expectation for low inflation rates in 2025 and 2026, aligning with targets [1] - The central bank has cut policy rates by 100 basis points since September of the previous year, emphasizing the need for commercial banks to lower loan rates to support credit expansion and economic growth [1][2] Group 3 - The central bank has actively purchased government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with a total purchase amounting to 186.06 trillion Indonesian Rupiah as of August 19 [2] - The central bank is adjusting liquidity management tools, as indicated by a significant decrease in the outstanding balance of Indonesian Rupiah Securities (SRBI) from 916.97 trillion Rupiah at the beginning of 2025 to 720.01 trillion Rupiah by August 15 [2] - The Indonesian Rupiah has shown strength, supported by capital inflows and export revenue conversion, with the central bank implementing a "triple intervention" strategy to maintain exchange rate stability [2] Group 4 - The central bank maintains its current account deficit forecast for 2025 at 0.5% to 1.3% of GDP, with Q2's current account deficit remaining at a low level, indicating a robust external balance [3]

新西兰央行，再度降息！ 8月20日，新西兰央行（新西兰储备银行）将官方现金利率下调25个基点至3%。自去年8月启动本轮降息周期以来，新西兰央行已累计降息 250个基点。新西兰央行表示，未来几个月将进一步降息。这意味着，新西兰的货币政策进入更为宽松的阶段。 在上述降息的消息披露后，新西兰股市直线拉升。截至北京时间12时，新西兰NZ50指数上涨超1.5%，MSCI新西兰指数涨幅超过2%。新 西兰的货币则出现跳水，美元兑新西兰元涨幅超过1%。 降息25个基点 新西兰央行8月20日将政策利率下调25个基点至3%，符合市场预期。 在货币政策会议上，新西兰货币政策委员会以4票赞成、2票反对的投票结果，决定将官方现金利率（OCR）从3.25%下调至3.00%。会议纪 要显示，决策层围绕3种政策选项进行了深入讨论：维持利率不变、下调25个基点或下调50个基点。最终，多数委员认为，下调25个基点是 平衡当前经济风险与未来前景的最优选择。 上述降息的决策公开发布后，新西兰的股票市场大幅拉升，MSCI新西兰指数涨超2%，新西兰NZ50指数一度涨超200点，涨幅接近1.6%。 截至北京时间12时，MSCI新西兰指数上涨2.26%，新 ...